Is Jeff Hoffman an Opening Day Bullpen Option?

[Cody Pirkl]

Spring training battles continue to play out, and the competition for bullpen jobs has gained more clarity. With one less hat in the rink, could Jeff Hoffman snag an Opening Day job with the Twins?

Image courtesy of Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Minnesota Twins could end the competition for the final bullpen roles if they declared the incumbents (Trevor Megill and Jovani Moran) victors. Given how the Twins have operated this offseason, particularly in terms of depth, it’s likely that they may insulate their roster by sending one or both of them to Triple-A instead. With a few non-roster invites in camp staking their claim, The Twins could add depth to their bullpen.

Dennis Santana, already holding a 40-man roster spot, looked to be the likeliest candidate to make the Opening Day roster at another reliever’s expense. After quietly being put on waivers, Santana’s name is no longer in the competition.

Instead, it may be time to turn our eyes toward veteran Jeff Hoffman , who signed an interesting minor-league deal earlier this spring.

Hoffman has never quite put it all together, but he has pitched in parts of seven MLB seasons. Originally a starter, Hoffman transitioned to the bullpen in 2020 and has been able to strike out over a batter per inning in each of the last two seasons. His 3.83 ERA in just over 44 innings last season may be the most successful campaign of his career thus far. So why would the Twins be enticed by such unexciting numbers?

Hoffman averaged a solid 94.2 on his fastball in 2022. It wasn’t a dominant pitch, but opposing batters hit only .237 and slugged .443 off of it that season. Despite a spin rate in the 93rd percentile, the pitch only had a swing-and-miss rate of 16.5%. For a pitch with solid results but potentially lacking something, it seems that he went to work on it this winter, and early on, the returns are encouraging.

Hoffman has consistently sat in the mid-90s all spring and has hit the high 90s on the heater with regularity. Gains made on the fastball could be a game-changer for Hoffman, and the Twins may be inclined to take a gamble considering the low risk.

Hoffman’s two secondary pitches were legitimately dominant in 2022. The slider earned a 38.5% whiff rate and punished hitters to a .222 batting average and .370 slugging. His changeup had a whiff rate of 37.6% and allowed a .209 average and .348 slugging. He threw both pitches around 24% of the time.

The assumption based on the pitch mix is that Hoffman’s repertoire is built to match up with both right-handed and left-handed opposing hitters. His numbers don’t match what would be expected from a reliever with two dominant secondaries. It’s possible the Twins planned to bring him in and cut back on fastball usage while increasing the offspeed. While this still may be the plan, Hoffman potentially increasing his fastball velocity brings his potential to a whole new level.

Hoffman has only made three appearances this spring, allowing two runs in three innings. He’s walked one batter and struck out six. With multiple opt-outs in his contract (March 28, May 15, June 15), Hoffman may not be a candidate to take a Triple-A assignment. Given his velocity gains, he’s likely to take the first opportunity to pursue a job elsewhere unless the Twins add him to the 40-man roster by March 28. The organization is obviously aware of this.

For the bottom of the bullpen pecking order role that Hoffman would likely fill, the Twins would have little to lose if they believe in the improvements he’s shown early this spring. An arm like Trevor Megill could be stashed in Triple-A in case of injury or if Hoffman himself struggles. The Twins may see this as a more advantageous option than letting Hoffman walk for nothing and having no obvious replacement waiting in St. Paul should another reliever go down.

Has Hoffman’s performance this spring been enough to earn an Opening Day roster spot? Should we trust the velocity gains we’ve seen from him early in camp? Let us know below!

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[miracleb]

I'm surprised they put Santana on waivers now.  A younger guy who seems to have good stuff but struggles with throwing strikes.  Hoffman is an older guy....who also struggles with throwing strikes.   Not seeing the upside on this one.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Figuring out potential relief pictures is an incredibly nebulous process.  Bullpens across baseball are filled with failed starters whose stuff plays better in small samples, “mystery guys” who don’t seem to have great stuff but seem to get guys out, and lights out killers who just get up and blow people away.  It sounds like Hoffman might have unlocked something, putting him in the first category, but I’m guessing we’ll learn a bit more in the next couple of weeks as he gets more use.  If they have some faith that he could be effective, it makes a lot of sense to send Megill to St. Paul.  It’s like having an extra reliever (and certainly more flexibility) for little to no investment.  Psychologically, I feel better with this than I do with the continuing Pagan fixation, even if Pagan has the better stuff on paper.  

[FlyingFinn]

Keep Moran. I can see Hoffman in the long relief role because of his increased velocity and the opt outs. Rather it be in place of Pagan but it may be for Megill. But he better pitch great right away because this is the spot the Twins use for the train back and forth to St. Paul - pitch 5 innings in a game and down to St. Paul you go with Sanchez or someone coming up for the next shift.

[HrbieFan]

If we don't have to cross our fingers and close our eyes every time Magill comes, if all for keeping Hoffman

Edited March 18 by HrbieFan
Wrong name

[Doctor Gast]

I was all in for putting him in AAA, until we need him. But with those early opt outs, IMO the Twins will not look at his record but look at his stuff and sign him. Much like Pagan.

[Whitey333]

I say keep him.  I'm still perplexed why they put Santana on waivers.  He was picked up by the Mets.  They have world series aspirations and saw something in him.  Twins have no world series aspirations and may not even make the playoffs.  To the Chagrin of most of us I am sure Pagan will stay.  They continually say they are more concerned with Pagans process and not his results.  But they are stubborn enough to let him come in and blow more games this year.  Remember, they love his stuff.  I like results.  If pagan has the stuff but doesn't get results he isn't much good for the team.  Only to the management.  Keep Hoffman, dump Pagan and Megill.

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I say keep him.  I'm still perplexed why they put Santana on waivers.  He was picked up by the Mets.  They have world series aspirations and saw something in him.  Twins have no world series aspirations and may not even make the playoffs.  To the Chagrin of most of us I am sure Pagan will stay.  They continually say they are more concerned with Pagans process and not his results.  But they are stubborn enough to let him come in and blow more games this year.  Remember, they love his stuff.  I like results.  If pagan has the stuff but doesn't get results he isn't much good for the team.  Only to the management.  Keep Hoffman, dump Pagan and Megill.

Dennis Santana was with the Dodgers before they traded him. Don't think the Dodgers have had World Series aspirations recently? Then he was with the Rangers before they moved him to Atlanta. Don't think the Rangers have WS aspirations after signing Seager, Semien, and deGrom the last 2 offseasons to massive deals? Then the Braves waived him (that's how he ended up in MN). Don't think the Braves have WS aspirations? He's a borderline 40-man guy, but clearly not someone WS teams feel is worthy of a 26-man spot. This stuff happens constantly in MLB. Teams claim a guy and then waive him. Next team claims him and waives him. And so on until every team that was interested has had a shot at him and finally the last team standing gets to put him in the minors and work with him.

You're upset they keep Pagan because of stuff over results (for the record I also want Pagan gone), but you want them to keep Santana despite his results? I don't quite follow the logic here.

[TwinsDr2021]

Not a fan of this move, would rather see anybody else that is already on the 40 man be given a chance.

[GKuehl]

I’ve been thinking Coulombe is going to make the Opening Day roster. Whenever he’s been healthy, he’s put up good results. Having another LHP in the bullpen could be useful, especially considering Moran has reverse splits and might be used in a 2-inning per outing role and Thielbar is likely to be used in the late innings as one of our better relievers. 

[Dman]

I think if the Twins can get him to throw strikes he looks very interesting to me.  He managed a 1.41 WHIP last year which is the lowest it has ever been in his entire career.  You start getting that WHIP into the 1.5 area and bad things generally happen to a pitchers ERA so needs to better limit contact and find solid control.  Guessing that is why Cinci didn't take him back.

So far this spring he looks pretty much the same as he has in his career granted his K9 of 18 is elite but the two walks and two hits in three innings work is what has given him an ERA of 6.  All SSS but still pretty much in line with what he has always done except K rate.

Like this well written article states a little improvement could make him a solid middle relief option and maybe top end if he really refines his stuff.  Nice to project positive vibes but he still has to perform.   Will be interesting to see how his spring shakes out. 

I agree with the article though that the Twins were hoping Santana would clear so they could have their cake and eat it too but with the Mets down a reliever and maybe in some need for some Correa payback grabbed him instead.  All these fringe guys are wild cards though as they have weaknesses to overcome.  Here is hoping the Twins find a way to help Hoffman be the best pitcher he has been in his career thus far.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Dennis Santana was with the Dodgers before they traded him. Don't think the Dodgers have had World Series aspirations recently? Then he was with the Rangers before they moved him to Atlanta. Don't think the Rangers have WS aspirations after signing Seager, Semien, and deGrom the last 2 offseasons to massive deals? Then the Braves waived him (that's how he ended up in MN). Don't think the Braves have WS aspirations? He's a borderline 40-man guy, but clearly not someone WS teams feel is worthy of a 26-man spot. This stuff happens constantly in MLB. Teams claim a guy and then waive him. Next team claims him and waives him. And so on until every team that was interested has had a shot at him and finally the last team standing gets to put him in the minors and work with him.

You're upset they keep Pagan because of stuff over results (for the record I also want Pagan gone), but you want them to keep Santana despite his results? I don't quite follow the logic here.

Right on Santana - after their Closer got hurt at WBC Mets are looking for depth wherever they can find it - even Santana.

[DocBauer]

But then again, with only a handful if innings so far, and every team trying to set their roster by the 28th/29th, is it prudent of him to take that first opt out? Or is it smarter to stick with the Twins after being a late sign and go to AAA to begin the season?

Just tossing it out there.

Megill seems to have pitched much better since his initial nightmare appearance, but he hasn't exactly been destroying people. I see him as an easy depth piece at St Paul and not making the 40 man. With Santana gone, that frees up a spot for, yes, potentially Hoffmann. But Coloumbe is showing once again he can be valuable in a middle innings role. Ortega has looked pretty impressive from what I've seen so far. So while Hoffman is definitely a candidate, I don't know that's he's the best candidate. But he might be the smart choice, letting him audition and hopefully perform well while the others wait in AAA for opportunity. 

Bu I'm certainly not writing his name in ink at this point. 

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But then again, with only a handful if innings so far, and every team trying to set their roster by the 28th/29th, is it prudent of him to take that first opt out? Or is it smarter to stick with the Twins after being a late sign and go to AAA to begin the season?

Just tossing it out there.

Megill seems to have pitched much better since his initial nightmare appearance, but he hasn't exactly been destroying people. I see him as an easy depth piece at St Paul and not making the 40 man. With Santana gone, that frees up a spot for, yes, potentially Hoffmann. But Coloumbe is showing once again he can be valuable in a middle innings role. Ortega has looked pretty impressive from what I've seen so far. So while Hoffman is definitely a candidate, I don't know that's he's the best candidate. But he might be the smart choice, letting him audition and hopefully perform well while the others wait in AAA for opportunity. 

Bu I'm certainly not writing his name in ink at this point. 

Megill is already on the 40-man and also has an option. He can be sent to St. Paul on option without being exposed. Of course, that also means he can move freely all year between St. Paul and the Twins. He gave up a monster homer today, according to GameCast. 

Regarding Hoffman, the opt-outs change the calculation for players. So many factors--options, 40-man status, contract, opt-outs, and exact role they are looking for--in choosing between pitchers. 

I'll repeat what I've said before--there are going to be roster moves. Many of the players in St. Paul will log big league time with the Twins. It makes sense that the Twins don't want to lose players they think can help them by cutting them loose at cutdown time. 

[SteveLV]

Homer of Megill today was a first-pitch fastball right down the middle that the left handed Pirate hitter no-doubted out of the stadium.  Right fielder never moved.

Megill throws hard, but it looks like his fastball has zero movement.  Straight as an arrow.

[terrydactyls]

Hat in the rink is what fans do when a player gets his third goal of the game.  Hat in the ring is what I think you meant.

[Rosterman]

There are alot of pitchers heded to the mound in St. Paul. But, why is Sanchez starting for the Twins. Explain that? If they want him for long relief, use him in long relief.

Was surprised when they gave Santana a 40-man spot. They could've waited until the last moment and maybe got him thru waivers. They also gave Hoffman the major/minor split with opt outs. Picture him posibly walking, as the Twins have 40+ pitchers between AAA/AA right now.

Coulombe is making a press for that bullpen spot. Pagan, how long will his leash be? Moran...how much ahs he pitched in the back fields is my question.

 

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, Rosterman said:

There are alot of pitchers heded to the mound in St. Paul. But, why is Sanchez starting for the Twins. Explain that? If they want him for long relief, use him in long relief.

Was surprised when they gave Santana a 40-man spot. They could've waited until the last moment and maybe got him thru waivers. They also gave Hoffman the major/minor split with opt outs. Picture him posibly walking, as the Twins have 40+ pitchers between AAA/AA right now.

Coulombe is making a press for that bullpen spot. Pagan, how long will his leash be? Moran...how much ahs he pitched in the back fields is my question.

 

Moran pitched st least three times in the WBC in pretty high leverage situations. Maybe the Twins and Hoffman will agree to kick the can down the road on his first opt-out. I would prefer the Twins DFA or trade Pagán, both because he’s been bad and because it would open an additional 40-man spot.

I think six pitchers are pretty firmly set for the BP—Duran, Thielbar, JLópez, Jax, Moran and Alcala. Depending on patience with Pagán, that leaves one or two spots available. 

[Fatbat]

Id bet its better than 50/50 that Hoffman is on the roster if a spot is available. Megill is headed to the saints because he has options and needs to work on his game. Moran should be a lock for the 26man.  I think it comes down to having a 6 man SP rotation and I’m leaning that way.

 

[Rosterman]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Id bet its better than 50/50 that Hoffman is on the roster if a spot is available. Megill is headed to the saints because he has options and needs to work on his game. Moran should be a lock for the 26man.  I think it comes down to having a 6 man SP rotation and I’m leaning that way.

 

I still don't know how the six-man will work, if the guys can't get past the sixth inning. Too much strain on the bullpen. And the Twins don't really have any off days (only two) in April, and heaven forbid if a double-header or two happens early in the game (although you do get that extra arm).

I kinda liked where a team could start the season with 28 players. Gives a little more wiggle room with the rotation, allows some things to shake out in the minors regarding injury. Something the union should push. Gives more service time and major league salary for a month to a couple of guys. Like, also, bring back unlimited 40-man callups for September. Let these guys sit in the pen or on the bench and experience major league play while getting bonus play (and service time). because they did good.

[stringer bell]

Hoffman threw two scoreless innings today. His roster competition is now only Cole Sands, who hasn’t been outstanding. There is currently a 40-man spot opening, so may the best man win. 

[Cody Pirkl]

On 3/18/2023 at 7:27 AM, miracleb said:

I'm surprised they put Santana on waivers now.  A younger guy who seems to have good stuff but struggles with throwing strikes.  Hoffman is an older guy....who also struggles with throwing strikes.   Not seeing the upside on this one.

I liked Santana better myself as well. Surprising to see them put him on waivers but I do wonder if they did so having essentially already decided on Hoffman for whatever reason. It's also possible they tried to sneak him through waivers. We've seen them do that before.