One High-Upside Reliever Candidate for Twins to Target

[Nash Walker]

As the Twins continue their journey through the 2022 season, it’s become clear that the team could use at least one high-powered, high-leverage reliever to pair with rookie sensation Jhoan Duran in the bullpen. Here’s an option who may not cost much but could provide massive value.

Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins have given a reliever approximately one guaranteed multi-year deal. It was to Addison Reed, who posted a 4.50 ERA in 55 outings. They don’t believe in spending heavily on a bullpen, evidenced by their highest-paid reliever in 2022 (it’s Padres closer Taylor Rogers). It’s explicitly not a value or focus, and due to the up-and-down nature of a bullpen arm, it probably serves them right in most cases. 

The Twins also love pitcher reclamation projects or just pitcher projects in general. Maybe that will change with the departure of Wes Johnson, but it’s been a calling card since this front office took over in 2017. The list is long and features some success stories (Matt Wisler) and misses (Shaun Anderson), and it doesn’t feel like it’s going away anytime soon. Jharel Cotton is among this year’s projects, as is Trevor Megill. It’s what they do. 

Combining what we know, it’s unlikely the Twins will trade for someone like Jorge López, who is under team control through 2024 and is having a career year. His cost will be high, and it’s not like this front office to meet those demands. It’s much more likely they’ll target someone at a lower cost. 

Oakland Athletics reliever Lou Trivino, 30, is having a horrific season, at least on the surface. His ERA is a robust 7.52, and he’s given up 30 hits in 20 1/3 innings. While these numbers don’t scream “bullpen solution,” Trivino is having some of the worst luck of his career. His FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, is 2.87. Among relievers with at least 20 innings thrown, Trivino has the largest gap between his FIP and ERA (4.65 runs). He’s one of only five relievers striking out over 14 batters per nine innings. His walk rate is a career-low 9.9%. Trivino’s essentially doing his part, while his defense isn’t. 

Trivino throws in the mid-to-upper 90s and has held right-handed hitters to a .618 OPS in his career. He throws his sinker too much and his slider too little, another feature the Twins favor in a reclamation project. He added the slider this year, and the results are outstanding. Opponents are hitting .125 with a 58% whiff rate against the pitch, with even better expected numbers.

Nobody will clammer for a guy with a horrible ERA on a lousy team, but Trivino fits the Twins' bill. Trivino is also under team control through 2024, so there’s real upside beyond 2022. The Athletics’ return probably wouldn’t hold a ton of risk. The risk is if Trivino pitches to his surface numbers and blows multiple games in the second half. The upside? That a better defense and luck help Trivino pitch to his peripherals. He’s the Twins’ type. 

What do you think about Lou Trivino? Comment below!

 

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[Karbo]

He's looked good in the past. Is he healthy? sometimes bad luck is just that. Sometimes its more. I haven't seen him much if at all this season so its hard to guess, but the A's have to be down in the dumps after trading away so much and rebuilding again. A change may be just what he needs.

[GNess]

Seen him a few times, he has the stuff to be quite good - he just hasn't been.

 

[Kipp35]

We are fighting for 1st place in our division, and we are looking to target a floundering reliever? We need a couple of GOOD arms in the pen and at least one more in the rotation, not to mention a first basemen. We need to target GOOD pitchers, having a good season.

At 42-33, we would not be in first place in any other division in baseball (only being tied with the Brewers NL Central). This is why we struggle, if and when we make the playoffs. Do something that propels us forward. This article talks about how this teams likes certain types of 'projects'; well, how has that gone for us? I don't see any World Series appearances using that model... 

[Dman]

That is some interesting analysis.  The K rate is there.  The walk rate is there but the hits just keep on coming making that WHIP a real problem.  Gotta say I don't love guys that give up tons of hits like he is but with that K and walk rate it is tempting to see what it would cost to pry him from the A's.

Still is this the kind of risk you want to take fighting for a playoff spot?  If he continues to be "unlucky" is that how you want to use a 40 spot and trade capital?  Not sure I am sold on the timing but I will say that it is certainly something to think about.

[2wins87]

Seems like he was good but not amazing in the last two seasons.  Sure the FIP is under 3, but his xERA is 3.81 and his hard hit rate is worse than the average pitcher.

I don't think it would be a bad move but I also don't think his peripherals actually point to more than a slightly above average reliever upside.  I would like to see them aim a bit higher.

[Drew]

45 minutes ago, Kipp35 said:

We are fighting for 1st place in our division, and we are looking to target a floundering reliever? We need a couple of GOOD arms in the pen and at least one more in the rotation, not to mention a first basemen. We need to target GOOD pitchers, having a good season.

 

I think the author lays out why he might be a good arm (higher K/9 and lower FIP than Duran). He seems like  a really good buy low target for me. And isn't our 1B, when Polanco is healthy, leading MLB in AVG & OBP?

[Trov]

I have not watched the man pitch.  I have never been a fan of FIP as any kind of measure for relief pitchers overall.  This is because it will jump so much based on so little innings pitched.  He may keep the ball the in the park and have decent K to BB numbers, but he clearly is giving up a ton of hits. His WHIP is nearly 2, which is crazy for a relief guy. 

He is giving up career high line drives percentage.  Sure they are staying in the field and he has a good bb to K ratio, but giving up line drives at 39% clip is not good.  The k's are at a much higher rate than his career has shown too, is that sustainable?  He has a career high hard hit percentage at 40%, career low of fly ball percentage at 8.1 percent, but below career average of ground ball percentage, at 41%.  So he is giving up hard hit line drives for hits.  Is that bad luck and bad defense?  Maybe some bad luck, but the key to getting a hit is line drives and hitting it hard generally. 

I would argue he is not getting to unlucky, but guys are teeing off early in counts.  Sure if they go deep he gets the K, but he is giving up hits in bunches, and they are not soft ground balls that find holes.  This is a hard pass for me.  

[MMMordabito]

I don't know that he will be a buy low candidate, because Oakland can see the same stats that don't make sense.  Trivino is worth a call, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is sticker shock.  Falvey will be dealing with Billy Beane, not Eric Cartman.

[jorgenswest]

He would help. He can’t be the best reliever they pick up at the deadline.

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, Kipp35 said:

We are fighting for 1st place in our division, and we are looking to target a floundering reliever? We need a couple of GOOD arms in the pen and at least one more in the rotation, not to mention a first basemen. We need to target GOOD pitchers, having a good season.

At 42-33, we would not be in first place in any other division in baseball (only being tied with the Brewers NL Central). This is why we struggle, if and when we make the playoffs. Do something that propels us forward. This article talks about how this teams likes certain types of 'projects'; well, how has that gone for us? I don't see any World Series appearances using that model... 

I don't know if there is enough we can do to propel forward.  We need 3/4 relievers and 2 starting pitchers.  

[Doctor Gast]

Trevino was on my radar but recently his bad #s I have soured on him. Bad defense doesn't seem to bother Montas, I'm sceptical w/ his hard hit rate. I'm sure he'll be cheap but there's others out there I'm more interested in and could help the Twins more. I'd be willing if Montas was part of the deal but afraid maybe that train has past.

[RJA]

It all depends on the cost of acquisition. Bullpen help is certainly needed, and if he could be picked up at a very low prospect cost, he is worth it methinks.  His BAbip this year is something like .500 which is like 200 points higher than any previous year.  But, his hard hit percentage is up this year as well.  His splits home and away are pretty even and his BAbip and ERA are both a tad lower away.  As his salary is 3 million this year and likely to go up in arbitration next year, the A's may be willing to deal.

[Jack Griffin]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

He would help. He can’t be the best reliever they pick up at the deadline.

This is exactly what I am thinking.

Getting him would be fine, and could work out.

But he better not be our ONLY acquisition. 

[Jack Griffin]

51 minutes ago, RJA said:

It all depends on the cost of acquisition. Bullpen help is certainly needed, and if he could be picked up at a very low prospect cost, he is worth it methinks.  His BAbip this year is something like .500 which is like 200 points higher than any previous year.  But, his hard hit percentage is up this year as well.  His splits home and away are pretty even and his BAbip and ERA are both a tad lower away.  As his salary is 3 million this year and likely to go up in arbitration next year, the A's may be willing to deal.

If the cost of acquisition is low enough, I don't see an issue with trading for him.

If it works you get a solid bullpen arm, if not you DFA or non tender him this off season.

As well as this better be in addition to other moves.

[Jim wyllie]

My suggestion have the twin wirk on a deal that would include him as an extra piece to go with perhaps months and puk.  If his numbers aren't very good right now he wouldn't cost much extra and would still leave the twin pen and rotation upgraded.  It wouldn't a cheap trade to get done but it could be a big game changing trade for a play off run

[Shaitan]

Maybe off the waiver wire.

[bean5302]

Trivino is probably a major hard luck candidate, but as previously mentioned, he's allowing a 40% line drive rate and both his changeup and four seam fastball have been driven hard with exit velocities north of 92mph on each.

Trivino's BB/9 and K/9 rates are being elevated by the BABIP issue. Simply put, Trivino is seeing more batters per inning than he probably should. The K% and BB% are good, but sometimes the hits are just a factor of the pitches not working rather than hard luck. Tough to say here.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Alright, I'm convinced. Lets trade for him immediately. Can he be in Cleveland before 7?

[mikelink45]

Is this a randball stu essay?  Surely it is a joke.

[tony&rodney]

Why not? The Twins need somebody to help out Duran and Jax. 

[DocBauer]

I just don't buy in to every single analytic or peripheral number that's available. I mean, how many are out there to prove so and so is great, or bad, or unlucky? I know there is real value to some of those numbers, BUT AT SOME POINT, there is STILL performance. 

Case in point, Thielbar has actually been as good as he's ever been except for 3 appearances, if I have it correctly. That's understandable for a RP. You have a couple really bad games, you look awful, it skews things like ERA or W-L and the such. So there is room, to be sure, for a guy who is good to very good 85-90% of the time, but who's numbers get skewed for those few bad appearances. I get it. But still, bad numbers are bad numbers and good numbers are good numbers. Trevino could be a steal on a cheap deal with real upside. But he's only a secondary thought, IMO. HIS team might stink, his defense might stink, but if he's really got good stuff, he should be able to overcome at least some of that. 

He's a 2nd arm in trade with upside that should come cheap or pass and look elsewhere.

[MTV]

15 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

We are fighting for 1st place in our division, and we are looking to target a floundering reliever? We need a couple of GOOD arms in the pen and at least one more in the rotation, not to mention a first basemen. We need to target GOOD pitchers, having a good season.

At 42-33, we would not be in first place in any other division in baseball (only being tied with the Brewers NL Central). This is why we struggle, if and when we make the playoffs. Do something that propels us forward. This article talks about how this teams likes certain types of 'projects'; well, how has that gone for us? I don't see any World Series appearances using that model... 

Trevino’s a good option because of past success, and his failure this year could be because of the failing A’s. It’ll be easier to trade for him and if he does inevitably flounder then oh well, he won’t need a ludicrously expensive return and the chance is worth it. The Twins could have bigger plans for the deadline and with how our bullpen is built as of right now, he wouldn’t be such a bad option.

[MTV]

The Twins are going to need 1-2 high-end starters and 2-3 better Bullpen options. I think lower-level prospects for Trevino would be a solid move that has a chance to seriously pan out. Guys like Jeff Hoffman and David Robertson also looks like relievers the Twins should target, just someone to replace Emilio Pagan as our closer.

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

We are fighting for 1st place in our division, and we are looking to target a floundering reliever? We need a couple of GOOD arms in the pen and at least one more in the rotation, not to mention a first basemen. We need to target GOOD pitchers, having a good season.

At 42-33, we would not be in first place in any other division in baseball (only being tied with the Brewers NL Central). This is why we struggle, if and when we make the playoffs. Do something that propels us forward. This article talks about how this teams likes certain types of 'projects'; well, how has that gone for us? I don't see any World Series appearances using that model... 

If you are correct, we should be sellers not buyers.  I would add the last thing we need is a 1B.  We have a fantastic young 1B and Arraez as a back-up.

[Riverbrian]

Bullpen would ranked #1, #2, #3 and #4 on my trade deadline acquisition wish list. 

Bullpen arms are typically not that expensive. Even arms with significant stuff. The Twins clearly need to add a couple of arms with significant stuff to the bullpen before the deadline. 

The priorities:

#1, #2 #3 and #4: At least two Bullpen guys with the stuff to get away with mistakes. No tricksters please... look for arms that can rack up some K's with a runner on third.  

The bullpen has this need right now even before you consider the possibility of any injury making this need worse. I don't personally see an in-house solution to satisfy this need. Bullpen has to be the top priority on the shopping list. This team is in contention. This must be addressed. These are not expensive acquisitions in terms of prospect capital. 

#5: A power bat

You have to consider the very likely possibility of injury from someone amongst the position players. An injury could happen to someone who is a significant important contributor. (Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Arraez). Even if we are blessed with health... it is my opinion that the Twins could use an additional power bat to deepen a healthy offense but you will really wish you added to the offense if one of these guys goes down in September. I don't care what position this power bat plays however, since Kirilloff can also play OF and Arraez can play other positions. 1B is the cheapest position to acquire a power bat. I'd have no problem with a big powerful 1B being added such as Josh Bell or Trey Mancini and I don't believe it would wound our farm system. 

Yeah... I know I'm not factoring in Sano's return to the lineup. I'll repeat... I don't care what position this power bat acquisition plays.            

#6: Starting Pitching. I surely wouldn't mind the addition of a Castillo or Montas. A starter like that would be wonderful. However, those guys are expensive to acquire and I would not be comfortable giving up a Canterino for example to acquire this type of a guy. 

I continue to contend that our starting pitching has some real nice depth which makes this less of a priority.  

[Kipp35]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If you are correct, we should be sellers not buyers.  I would add the last thing we need is a 1B.  We have a fantastic young 1B and Arraez as a back-up.

I hope you are not talking about Sano as a first basemen?

[Kipp35]

10 hours ago, MTV said:

Trevino’s a good option because of past success, and his failure this year could be because of the failing A’s. It’ll be easier to trade for him and if he does inevitably flounder then oh well, he won’t need a ludicrously expensive return and the chance is worth it. The Twins could have bigger plans for the deadline and with how our bullpen is built as of right now, he wouldn’t be such a bad option.

Our pitching coach just jumped ship, who is going to help him turn things around? If you feel an afterthought coach is going to help him recapture his form, that is crazy.