Scouting Twins Prospects: Who Is Ronny Henriquez?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Ronny Henriquez was acquired by the Minnesota Twins on Saturday afternoon as part of the trade that sent Mitch Garver to the Rangers. He's a fireballing right-hander with a slight frame, who likely projects as more of a reliever in the long run. But, he’s exactly the type of arm that could excel in the Twins farm system.

Age: 21
2021 Stats (High-A and Double-A): 5-7, 4.71 ERA, 21 G, 16 GS, 93 2/3 IP, 105 K, 25 BB, 17 HR
ETA: Late 2022 out of the bullpen, 2023 as a potential starter
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What’s to Like
Despite being listed at 5’10” — a liberal measure of his height, to be sure — and 155 pounds, Henriquez boasts a fastball that consistently hits the mid-90s. Although its spin rate and other concrete metrics are elusive, its overall shape is consistent with successful fastballs in the modern MLB game: It plays best up in the zone and appears to possess good carry, giving it the illusion of rising action.

Henriquez accomplishes this by getting on top of his fastball at the point of release. While he utilizes a three-quarter arm slot, a concurrent lateral lean of his trunk allows him to get more vertical spin on his heater, giving it that illusion of carry. His secondary stuff needs some work — more on that in a little bit — but his fastball will be a legitimate MLB offering, if it isn’t already.

What’s Left to Work On
Henriquez possesses two other offerings in his arsenal: a slider and a changeup. When on, his slider can be an effective pitch, particularly when placed on the outside edge of the plate for a right-handed batter. However, overall the pitch is rather uninspiring at the moment due to his iffy command of it as well as its lack of consistent bite.

As for the changeup, well, it’s his third pitch and from the video I’ve seen, he rarely offers it up to right-handers and begrudgingly does so to lefties. In short, Henriquez only has one MLB caliber pitch at the moment, which raises questions about his future as a starter. If he can improve the consistency of at least his slider, he may have a shot at sticking in the rotation.

Even so, his overall command can be iffy, even of his fastball. While Henriquez has never posted a strikeout rate less than 26% during his three-season career in the minors, his walk-rate has hovered around 6-7% or roughly three walks per nine innings. Improving his command will be imperative for him if he wants to remain a starter.

Additionally, Henriquez is a fly ball pitcher who struggled with the long ball last summer. At Double-A, he surrendered 15 home runs to go along with a 41% fly-ball rate, which equated to a whopping 19.5% home run per fly ball rate, according to FanGraphs. That’s much too high, so it should come as no shock to see that he posted a 4.86 FIP in 69 2/3 innings. His ability to keep the ball in the park while continuing to miss bats will be a large factor in determining his ability to reach the major leagues.

Finally, while his motion is rather compact and repeatable, he could probably stand to generate more force from his drive leg. Doing so will allow him to maintain velocity on his fastball while simultaneously cutting down on the force imparted on his shoulder and inner elbow, potentially reducing injury risk.

What’s Next
Henriquez will likely begin the season with Double-A Wichita and could reach Triple-A St. Paul relatively quickly if he finds success as his fastball is ready to test MLB waters. It wouldn’t come as a total shock if he made his Twins debut during the latter portion of the season out of the bullpen, though, if the Twins wish to continue to develop him as a starter, he likely won’t make his debut until the following summer. 

The Twins have had success in recent seasons developing young arms with some upside into viable MLB candidates. In many ways, Henriquez is exactly the kind of pitcher the Twins have been able to maximize, not unlike Louie Varland and Josh Winder. While he is not likely to be considered a top 10 prospect in the Twins system, he is the perfect athlete to take a flier on in the trade market.

Other's Evaluations

Seth chatted with a talent evaluator outside the Twins organization and received the following comments on Henriquez: 

Evaluator 1: I think the Twins fans will be happy with him. I really like his stuff. He’s undersized, so I don’t know if Starting Pitcher will be a long-term position for him. But he throws strikes with swing-and-miss stuff. Whatever role they decide to put him in, I think he’ll be effective. Don’t be too hung up on his AA numbers from last season. He was a 21-year-old competing at a high level.

And friend of Twins Daily, Chris Blessing offered this on Twitter: 

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[mikelink45]

We had Tom Hall, called the blade - 150 pounds and said to be too small, but he started and relieved and  was 25 - 21 in four years with the Twins. Over his career he was 52 - 33 with a 3.00 era and 32 saves.  I would love it if Hendriquez could match the Blade, but for now it is all speculation and wait and see.  

[miracleb]

Oil Can Boyd part deux?  

 

[DJL44]

So is the split change his best pitch or his 3rd best pitch which he is afraid to throw?

[The Mad King]

Thanks for the optimism!

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So is the split change his best pitch or his 3rd best pitch which he is afraid to throw?

In the footage I watched, the changeup had decent movement, but he could not locate it. I have a tough time saying it's his best pitch if he can't maximize it. It has good raw characteristics but needs refinement.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Great work Lucas! Well written and balanced.

[PDX Twin]

Quote

Although its spin rate and other concrete metrics are elusive

What does this mean? That you don't know them? Why not say that?

[RJA]

Great job getting a scouting report out in less than 24 hours!  Will be fun to see how this kid develops.

[jmlease1]

Twins staff has some work to do here: he's got to find a secondary pitch that works for him consistently, but there's talent here, so if he can lock in to at least one of them, then he should advance quickly. I wonder if the Twins like his split-change or his slider better at this point? Curious to see if they have him focus on one or the other this season or if they try to get refinement on them both.

[roger]

Will be interesting to see how he does.  But he was pushed to AA as a 21 year old (or was he 20 last summer) after having an off year due to COVID.  For me, that's encouraging.

Great third piece in a trade that seemed to need one.  Although I will miss Garver, I am beginning to like this trade versus being so-so about it.

[Bradfoot]

1 hour ago, PDX Twin said:

What does this mean? That you don't know them? Why not say that?

Mlb.com claims his fastball has a high spin rate but I dont think the specific rates are posted anywhere for minor leaguers. 

 

Mlb.com seems to focus on a positive spin for every prospect though so maybe take their glowing review with some skepticism.

 

"Though Henriquez is listed at just 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, he shows flashes of three plus pitches and scouts can't agree on which is his best. His most consistent is a 92-96 mph four-seam fastball that tops out at 98 and features high spin rates and good carry. He achieves quality depth with his hard slider as well as his changeup, with the former a more reliable offering at this point."

[TwinsDr2021]

I love his age, hate that he has to be put on the 40, I would hope that 21 year old on the 40 would be somebody that helps the MLB team, not somebody that that you hope can help at some point. Unlike some of the older prospects on that 40 that the team needs to figure out ASAP, you would hate for them to rush him up and ruin him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Due to  this trade, the  Rangers need someone to play 3B. Any idea where the Rangers could obtain a former MVP to play 3B ?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Outstanding analysis, Lucas.

[cHawk]

I think Henriquez could be a solid contributor in the next couple of years. Not a huge fan of the trade now but if Henriquez develops into a solid starter/reliever I have no problem with it.

[Game7-91]

Does he have to be on the 40?

[Dman]

While his size does makes it seem like he ends up in the pen he does have the stuff to be a starter.  I get the knocks on him that his slider and change might not be "good enough" just yet but when you look at the WHIP he must have some decent stuff and pretty good control because his WHIP is only 1.10 and he has a good K rate for a starter.  Also he is young for AA at 21 so one would think he might need a bit more time to refine his stuff.

Henriquez and SWR give the Twins some higher level, younger arms, with starter potential as other than Balazovich (23,YO) I think the rest of the guys are 24 or 25 already.  So it is nice that he is younger and I think there is a good chance development can lift him a little higher yet. The Twins love tweaking sliders and several pitchers have developed solid changeup's in the system.  I think there is a good chance they can improve Henriquez's pitches the only question in my mind is will the arm hold up as a starter as innings increase.

Should be fun to watch the Twins affiliates rotations at all levels this year as they are dripping with talent top to bottom.

[SteelDodo]

Thanks for the report! If you were to rank him, where would he land among twins prospects?  Mlb.com puts him at 20, below Strotman and Sands but above Vallimont and Hajjar. Though Fangraphs puts him at 9, above SWR and below Canterino.

If he's actually ranked above SWR, that makes him a borderline top 100 prospect. 

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

13 minutes ago, SteelDodo said:

Thanks for the report! If you were to rank him, where would he land among twins prospects?  Mlb.com puts him at 20, below Strotman and Sands but above Vallimont and Hajjar. Though Fangraphs puts him at 9, above SWR and below Canterino.

If he's actually ranked above SWR, that makes him a borderline top 100 prospect. 

I'd say the 15ish range feels right. I think of him on the same plane as Sands. SWR and those in that range have far more potential and raw skills, imo. 

[railmarshalljon]

3 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

Mlb.com seems to focus on a positive spin for every prospect though so maybe take their glowing review with some skepticism.

Pun intended?

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

We had Tom Hall, called the blade - 150 pounds and said to be too small, but he started and relieved and  was 25 - 21 in four years with the Twins. Over his career he was 52 - 33 with a 3.00 era and 32 saves.  I would love it if Hendriquez could match the Blade, but for now it is all speculation and wait and see.  

Seriously?  When we get  fat prospect, are we going to excuse it by saying we had David Ortiz?  Henriquez is a lottery ticket where the prize is a decent reliever if you defy all odds.  That is, he's just another minor league pitcher with a very low ceiling.

[cmoss84]

Ceiling...Marcus Stroman?