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SteelDodo

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Everything posted by SteelDodo

  1. For an 11th round pick, I am perfectly fine with the Twins taking a high risk, high reward type of player. In fact, I wish they did that more with the late round picks.
  2. I mean that is a VERY high ask for only 1.5 years of Berrios, but then again, highballing (or lowballing) for your first offer is negotiation 101. A particular scene comes to mind...
  3. Well technically, Julien said that too. Then, the Twins made him an offer that he couldn't refuse. Since it appears that all of the draft picks besides Petty are likely candidates to be signed below slot, maybe we can do the same thing with Birdsell? His MLB.com profile said he was likely a top 5 round player if not for the injury, so I'd love to sign him!
  4. Also, one interesting trend I just noticed: it seems like the Twins like the Twins really like using the second round pick to take someone WAY below slot value. Each year since 2017, the Twins only paid their second round pick ~75-80% of their slot value. Landon Leach signed for $1,400,000 (slot value was $1,846,100). Jeffers signed for $800k (slot value was $1,140,600). Canterino signed for $1,100,000 (slot value was $1,338,500), and Soularie signed for $900,000 (slot value was $1,185,500)
  5. Agreed. I think that's ESPECIALLY true in the age of COVID, where scouts maybe only were able to watch a handful of games. Sure, everyone agrees on the top ~10 or so. After that, there is not a whole lot separating the 20th ranked player from the 50th.
  6. Assuming they actually could sign him, Madden would be an AWFULLY good value...
  7. I would do either deal, and I would be happy to do it. I also really like the idea of packaging our players together in these trades. By packaging guys together, we're more likely to get higher caliber prospects back. When looking at the prospects/players we'd get in return, I'd rather focus on quality over quantity.
  8. Thanks for the list! I think it will be really interesting to see who the Twins draft with the first few picks this year. They obviously have a strong preference for college batters, but every article I've read say that group is the weakest part of the draft. Sean Johnson said that the depth of college bats is as thin as any draft he can remember, and the real strength of this draft is the college pitching. Knowing that the Twins seem to have an aversion for college pitchers in the first three rounds (since Falvey/Lavine took over, Canterino is the only college pitcher they've drafted in the first three rounds), I wonder if the team will still pick a bat even if the college pitchers available are ranked slightly higher?
  9. Agreed that this is an apples vs. oranges comparison. To compare numbers that may be a bit more relatable, on Baseballtradevalues.com, Escobar is currently worth $4million, Duran is worth $11.2m, Maciel is worth $4.9m, and De la Trinidad is not ranked. I know these numbers aren't that accurate, and Escobar's value today isn't as high as it was in 2018, but I still think the Twins got GREAT value on this trade.
  10. Glad to hear! I know that often college pitchers are knocked for "reliever risk," but I never understood the fear. Especially with how our bullpen has been performing this year, I would gladly spend a first round pick for another Rogers, May, Pressley type.
  11. I want the most star power back, so the Mets deal seems to be the best. I would be very happy with that one
  12. Wow that's a good point. Falvey inherited a BARREN farm system. I count two players (Kirilloff and Garver) out of the top 20 who are likely to get through arbitration with the Twins... ouch
  13. In contrast to some of the previous commenters, in my opinion, it is WAY too early to be criticizing the returns from the 2018 trades. When trading for prospects, the value received in the trade is the SIX years worth of contributions after the prospects reach the majors. At this point, only a few of the 2018 prospects have made the majors, and even then they have only been on the major league roster for a year or two. We'll know the true value of the trades in another ~8 years from now.
  14. Wow, interesting trade. I think it is a BIG overpay by SD, but I would have no issues accepting this deal. Frankly, I think I would still accept the deal (though it would be a closer decision) if the Padres only offered two of Gore/Abrams/Hassel in addition to the younger 2. One thing that I really like though, is I hope the Twins can prioritize quality over quantity. I would MUCH rather get ~2-3 top 100 prospects, rather than a bunch of lower tier prospects. I think that packaging Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers (in some order) will likely yield higher prospects than if the Twins were to trade them each separately.
  15. Good list! Personally, I would move Julien to ~20. Should be some interesting discussions when deciding who to add to the 40 man. It looks like there are at least 5 that NEED to be added.
  16. I think that's a great way of thinking about it. a) I want to trade everyone in group A that has ANY sort of value. b) I am hoping to trade the three in group B (with the expectation there will be a GREAT return for each). c) For group C, I'm fine trading any of these guys if another team makes a fair offer, but I won't sell any of them at a discount. I'm expecting these will be our veteran leaders over the next year or two, so, I'm expecting all of them (or at least most of them) to stay put.
  17. Fun conversation! I am of the opinion that we should look to trade anyone who will not be on the team in 2023. (so I'm fine keeping Donaldson, Polanco, Garver, and Kepler unless someone blows us away with a trade offer). To that point, I'm not sure why people are discussing trading Berrios/Buxton, but hoping to keep Rogers? To me, I view them all in the same tier. They all have 1.5 years left on their contracts, so I assume that Rogers will also leave with Berrios and Buxton when when their contracts are up. Rogers will never have as much trade value as he does right now, so I think we should be actively looking trade him too. (Obviously, I'd love to keep all 3 long term, but I'm assuming all want to test free agency, and I don't want any of them to leave for nothing)
  18. To me, I think of Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers in the same way. They are all top notch players, and I would love to keep them long-term if they were willing to sign a deal. Although if we can't extend them, then we should trade them now. I don't want any of them to leave for nothing in a year and a half.
  19. Interesting. After a quick, 5 minute reading over the three prospects, I think I'd do that trade. Mauricio is listed at 51 on MLBs top 100 prospects, and Ginn looks like he would become our third best pitching prospect after Duran/Balazovic. It also wouldn't surprise me at all if he becomes a top 100 prospect at some point too. For a year and a half of Berrios, I would be happy with a haul of two minor leaguers who would instantly go in our top 5 prospects, and a third who would likely be in our top 15.
  20. Fun to do the midseason rankings! Personally, I would move Miranda and Cavaco in between Winder and Rooker. Otherwise, I think my list would be pretty much the same. Out of curiosity, if you were ranking the next 5, would Julien, Steer (and possibly Palacios) be in that tier? I think they are all pretty close to top 20.
  21. I'm a firm believer in making anyone available for the right price, but I wouldn't want to trade either if I could help it. As others have said, between C, 1B, and DH, I think there will be plenty of at bats for Garver even without any injuries. Also, Garver has 2 years on his contract after this one. Generally, the more years on a contract, the more prospect capital it would take to acquire a player. Knowing how high the price tag would be now, I imagine most teams wouldn't even be interested in trading for him until next year's trade deadline at the earliest.
  22. Glad there are multiple potential suitors! I hope this means there will be a bidding war...
  23. Ooo reranking the prospects sounds like fun! As far as our hitters go, the one I've been most excited about (besides Miranda obviously) has been Julien. After him is Wallner and Steer. I think all three are solidly around the 8-12 range.
  24. As far as other promotions go, it seems like the best three (healthy) hitters in our minor league system all play second base: Miranda, Steer, and Julien. Moving each of them up a level makes sense since they can fill the hole left by the other.
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