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SteelDodo

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Everything posted by SteelDodo

  1. SteelDodo
    If my math is correct, that means that the Twins have a little more than $200k in bonus pool allotment that they could have spent, but didn't. Why not just spend all of it?
  2. SteelDodo
    I know that draft eligible sophomores usually cost more than Juniors. Would it be too difficult to sign two eligible sophomores this year? We already drafted Sabato, and I think a lot of the best guys left are sophomores too: Ginn, Wilcox, Henry, (and I THINK Beeter too)
  3. SteelDodo
    I really like Gage Workman (3B from ASU). He is strong enough defensively to play SS, but has the power to play 3B. If he is available, I would take him. If he's gone, then I am fine using the next three picks on pitchers.
  4. SteelDodo
    I get it, and I like his chances at making the major league roster, so I think I would give this pick a solid B. Having said that, it kind of adds to the 1B/Corner Outfielder minor league glut. If Kirilloff doesn't move to 1B, then we have 4 recent 1st round picks all essentially playing the same position: Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, and Wallner.
  5. SteelDodo
    Looking forward to tonight! One interesting rumor I read is that one team was thinking about intentionally drafting a difficult sign in the first round this year. Then, low ball the draftee, so that he won't sign and the team will get another first round pick next year. Generally, I think this would be stupid. However, with the draft most likely being much stronger next year AND the extreme lack of scouting teams were able to do this year, it does stand to reason that players drafted next year will be much safer than those drafted this year. To me it seems too much like gaming the system, so I wouldn't do it, but it is an interesting idea. Thoughts?
  6. SteelDodo
    Agreed! I'm looking forward to it too. I think it will be really interesting to see what Falvine does this year. After their fourth draft, we'll be able to see some pretty clear patterns emerge. Also, it seems like the strength of this draft (college pitchers) seems to deviate from what they typically like to do. In the last three years, they have drafted only two college pitchers in the first five rounds. It seems like this year, they could draft another two or three even though they only have four picks.
  7. SteelDodo
    Love this topic. Thanks for writing! I think the whole college vs. HS players, and other drafting strategies (hitters early, etc.) is my favorite type of baseball article to read.
  8. SteelDodo
    Yup. Paywall. Thanks for the idea though
  9. SteelDodo
    Really? Who are you referring to? Outside of Lewis, I don't think we have anyone in our system that has a better than not chance of being a major league SS. There are a few lower level lottery tickets (Cavaco, Holland, Steer, Javier, etc.) who may pan out at SS, but all seem to have pretty big question marks. Furthermore, none of them are close enough to the big leagues that they can be considered to be "pushing" Gordon for playing time. Not to say that I have high hopes for Gordon, but I think that if we were to trade him that would make SS a weak spot for our system.
  10. SteelDodo
    In addition to the depth of our rotation, which I think the majority of fans agree is in a good spot (or at least that it is better than it has been recently), the reasonable expectation of the quality of our starters is significantly higher than it was at this point last year. For our returning three: Pineda going into 2020 has higher expectations than going into 2019, when we was coming off a lost year due to injury.Odorizzi going into 2019 our ~#4 starter last year. Whereas now, he is coming off of an all star season.Berrios is another year older. Personally, I am more confident in a 25 (soon to be 26) Berrios than I was in a 24 year old Berrios.http://www.startribune.com/twins-2019-depth-chart/507648272/ I think Maeda > Gibson (who was our #2 starter going into last year). I also think that the expectation of the winner of or combination of Chacin/Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak will be higher than it was for Perez going into 2019, where he was coming off a season in which the Rangers demoted him into the bullpen. (not to mention the possible contributions by Hill) I wouldn't by any means call the rotation dominant, but our rotation was #9 in baseball last year (according to ERA). I think that it could plausibly be even higher this year.
  11. SteelDodo
    Interesting. When I read the headline, my first reaction was HARD pass because of the current glut we have at OF. After reading the article, I think you made some decent points, but I still would give this a pass. I could see how Almora may give us a little more value this year as a backup CF, but starting next year, I don't think he would make better emergency depth than Lewis/Celestino or one of our other young outfielders (Cave, Wade, Kirolloff, Rooker, Larnach). Of the players I mentioned, I'm not sure who will make the jump, but I'm fairly confident at least one of them will progress to the point where they are more valuable than Almara. So if the question is, how much would I be willing to pay for a one year improvement of our backup CF, maybe some low level prospect, or an older prospect with a limited ceiling (e.g. Jax, Barnes, Winder, Romero) but not more than that. Barring a complete career revival from Almora, I think 5-6 years of Smelter/Littell/Stashak is more valuable for the Twins.
  12. SteelDodo
    Out of curiosity, how does Kirilloff's outfield defense compare with Larnach's? Also, do you think that the team views Kirilloff primarily as a 1B going forward or do you think that they are just trying to add to his positional flexibility?
  13. SteelDodo
    I think this is the big kicker here, and probably the biggest reason that I like this trade. I feel like every year, I see comments about how the Twins failed to sell high on a prospect. Just in the last year alone, I can think of Gonsalves, Romero, and Gordon (each of whom could have gotten a pretty decent return if they had been traded 2-3 years ago). If Graterol had stayed with the team, what would have happened to his value if he had gotten injured or if it became obvious to the Twins and the rest of the league that his long-term home was in the bullpen? His value would have plummeted. Is it possible that we will regret trading him and his value will actually continue to increase? Absolutely. However, I would rather trade him now, when his prospect value is still relatively high, than regret waiting too long.
  14. SteelDodo
    Out of curiosity, where do you think Camargo would rank on our prospect list? Would he crack the top 30 or top 50? I think the general consensus I've seen is that Raley was in the ~30-35 range of our prospect rankings for what it's worth.
  15. SteelDodo
    Thanks for doing this! Do you have your favorite mlb draft strategies that you prefer? (HS pitcher, HS batter, college pitcher, college batter, etc.) From what I've read, generally, college position players have a higher success rate than pitchers, so I tend to agree with our current FO on spending early draft picks and most of the international money on position players. Having said that, do you think the strategy is TOO batter heavy? What would you do differently if you were in charge of Twins drafting?
  16. SteelDodo
    I agree with this. I do not pretend to be in ANY way a pitching mechanics guru, but when I look at this case objectively, there seems to be a pretty high likelihood of injury with Graterol if he stays as a SP. (I'm making up arbitrary numbers here, but...) If his outlook is an 80% chance that he will have the career of Aroldis Chapman or 30% that he will be an ace, I would err on the side of caution and make him a BP guy. I'm fine with trying him out at Spring Training next year as a starter, or even allowing him to try to be a SP for AAA for a while to see if he can handle it. Though, I think his ultimate best fit would be as a rock star in our bull pen.
  17. SteelDodo
    Does Rooker have to be added to the 40 man this year? He was drafted in 2017, so I thought he had another year...
  18. SteelDodo
    Sooo relieved that Celestino found his bat. What do you all think of the organizational prospect value of Celestino and Alcala compared with Jaylin Davis, Teng, and Berroa? Both packages were used to get a good RP with 1.5 years of control.
  19. SteelDodo
    Does anyone know why Edouard Julien isn't playing? Thanks in advance
  20. SteelDodo
    I LOVE this deal. Obviously I'm hoping for more trades, but I'm pretty sure I would have pulled the trigger if it had been just a one for one swap for Vallimont. The twins helped the bullpen, lessened the 40 man crowding, added another decent pitching prospect AND a ptbnl, all for someone who was likely never going to play for the twins anyways because he is so far down the 1B pecking order and quality MLB first basemen are so cheap to come by (see Cron). This is a relatively small trade, but in a vacuum, it's a definite win in my book.
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