How successful do you think this batch of pitching prospects will be?

[cHawk]

If you’ve been reading my content lately you’ll know that I’ve talked about the FO a lot. Mainly about the moves they’ve made and the job they’ve done, and what they need to do. Today, I want to touch on something in more detail.

A lot of what this FO’s fate is going to come down to in 2022 is what we see from their pitching development. I want to know what y’all think about that. Do you think a core of Duran, Ryan, Ober, Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, and Woods Richardson will materialize to a lot or will it not materialize?

Vote above and share below!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think we’ll see some flashes of brilliance and set the stage for respectability in ‘23 or ‘24, but also it’s a long season and only Jax Ober and Ryan were anywhere near 100 innings in ‘21. They’ll run out of gas as the season wears on.

[DocBauer]

To me, 3-4 is the easy and obvious choice. Unless you want to include Ober and Ryan in the discussion, who have obviously already appeared and flashed despite being prospects. But we also need to define what "shining" means in regard to 2022.

Ober and Ryan are still prospects, IMO, even though Ober has exceeded rookie status, based on IP.

Winder is the next, obvious, next man up. I think Balzovic is the next, next man up. For both of these guys, it's just about being healthy and taking the bump daily after 2 weird years. Sands could be as good as either of these two. We keep forgetting about him. Why?

Duran is the "wild card" because if the Twins could be, baseball gods bless,  be in any sort of contention, he could be a late season arm for the pen before returning to the rotation. But I would do everything in my power to nurture and "baby" him in 2022 to keep him as a SP option going forward. 

Everyone forgets about Strotman, a top prospect who had TJ and then jumped to AAA bypassing AA ball. What's his future? He could be a 2022 surprise. 

 I expect nothing in 2022 from SWR or Canterino because SWR is so damn young and had his 2021 year disheveled due to the Olympics. But I believe he will be ready for 2023. Canterino is a victim of 2020 and 2021 ramp up/injury. He just needs to be healthy and pitch. He'll be in AAA before the year is done. Like Duran, nurture the arm and don't give in to temptation to move him to the pen too soon. 

You didn't specify rotation arms vs SP arms. Unless the Twins made a mistake and someone drafts and keeps him, Jordan Gore will pitch for the Twins in 2022. Jax just might take his FB/slider combination and make a mark in the pen. There is a real chance Cano, and maybe Mason force themselves in to the pen.

Not sure what "shine" means in regard to criteria, but a safe vote could be an easy vote 3-4, but there is easy potential for more.

[wsnydes]

3-4 seems like the obvious choice to me.  It's also what the team will need to have in order to have any sort of relevance.  If they can get more, that's not only gravy but could also keep them around .500 and/or in playoff conversations.  

That said, I don't know how much of that will be sustained.  There will almost certainly be stretches of sheer brilliance, followed by sustained mediocrity as these guys try to get through their first big league season or debuts.

I expect to see lots of fresh faces coming up from the minors.  Some bigger names, some not so much so.  Some will catch on and hang around, some will crash and burn and get sent back to St. Paul in short order.  As @Sconnie has stated here and several other threads, there is going to be an innings gap and someone has to pitch those.  It could get pretty ugly at times.  It could be marvelous at times too though. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think there will definitely be some pitchers in 2022. Past that, I cannot predict anything.

After 2020 and 2021, I'm not comfortable predicting anything about this pitching pipeline but Falvine's jobs should ride on the success or failure of said pipeline.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

To me, 3-4 is the easy and obvious choice. Unless you want to include Ober and Ryan in the discussion, who have obviously already appeared and flashed despite being prospects. But we also need to define what "shining" means in regard to 2022.

Ober and Ryan are still prospects, IMO, even though Ober has exceeded rookie status, based on IP.

Winder is the next, obvious, next man up. I think Balzovic is the next, next man up. For both of these guys, it's just about being healthy and taking the bump daily after 2 weird years. Sands could be as good as either of these two. We keep forgetting about him. Why?

Duran is the "wild card" because if the Twins could be, baseball gods bless,  be in any sort of contention, he could be a late season arm for the pen before returning to the rotation. But I would do everything in my power to nurture and "baby" him in 2022 to keep him as a SP option going forward. 

Everyone forgets about Strotman, a top prospect who had TJ and then jumped to AAA bypassing AA ball. What's his future? He could be a 2022 surprise. 

 I expect nothing in 2022 from SWR or Canterino because SWR is so damn young and had his 2021 year disheveled due to the Olympics. But I believe he will be ready for 2023. Canterino is a victim of 2020 and 2021 ramp up/injury. He just needs to be healthy and pitch. He'll be in AAA before the year is done. Like Duran, nurture the arm and don't give in to temptation to move him to the pen too soon. 

You didn't specify rotation arms vs SP arms. Unless the Twins made a mistake and someone drafts and keeps him, Jordan Gore will pitch for the Twins in 2022. Jax just might take his FB/slider combination and make a mark in the pen. There is a real chance Cano, and maybe Mason force themselves in to the pen.

Not sure what "shine" means in regard to criteria, but a safe vote could be an easy vote 3-4, but there is easy potential for more.

I looked up the baseball definition of "shine" and Webster said it was an acronym which stands for "Slightly Higher In Nicknelson's Expectations". 

[wsnydes]

34 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think there will definitely be some pitchers in 2022. Past that, I cannot predict anything.

How very bold of you!  That's quite the limb you've climbed out on! ?

[Squirrel]

I think we will see several pitchers come up, but how many will shine? I chose a hopeful 1-2 … we will need that many to shine

[TopGunn#22]

To "Shine?"  The BEST case scenario, one or two.  And to "Shine" I'm saying Ryan/Ober like production over 110-120 innings, not anything close to Bert Blyleven's rookie year in 1970 (10-9 3.18 ERA).  The odds are much greater many of them struggle.  It will be front office malpractice if a solid SP arm or two isn't added via trade before the season to provide some stability.  All of us are also "assuming" that Ryan and Ober will just automatically step in and improve or at least maintain last season's productivity.  I'm just as guilty as everyone else in that and it's a BIG assumption.  There are always surprises every season.  Good and Bad.  The current collection of starting pitcher candidates is pointing to a 100 loss season.  If that happens, the Pohlad's should fire Rocco.  Why should he be given any more rope than Molitor was ?  And of course, Falvey and Levine should be checking out their resumes as well.  If 2022 is the disaster I think it's lining up to be a housecleaning is in order.  I wonder if the Pohlad's have already given the FO "assurances" that another disaster is acceptable.  Other than the annoying lockout messing things up, I can't see how this level of inactivity is a "good" plan. 

[Otaknam]

Another way to phrase it is “ How many of these young pitchers will positively impact the pitching staff in 2022?” To “shine” means to me to be excellent, which we can hope for, but for young pitchers it’s a leap of faith for several reasons. 

[RpR]

How many of the rookies do  you think will be , I own the plate, one day, and gopher ball incompetent the next?

[Major League Ready]

If shine means be one of the dominant pitchers in the league .... none.  Berrios was bad his first year.  The benchmark I am looking for will be pitchers that prove with little doubt they have what it takes to pitch at the top level and are here to stay.  Another way of looking at might be they prove they are part of the solution. 2-3 guys who pass that measure as SPs would be great.  I think we are also going to see a couple new BP guys emerge and this will be the year Alcala becomes the dominant RP we have been hoping he would become. 

[Rosterman]

Spring training will be interesting. Barring the signing of free agent pitchers, Thorpe and Jax will be given opportunities. If they fail, you have to evaluate bullpen potential or cut bait. If to the bullpen, chances are they will start that in St. Paul.

 

Strotman has the most innings and comes from AAA. They will look at him, but also wants to see if he can further adapt to the Twins system of play.

 

Winder needs innings. Could be a mid-season callup. Balazovic wiill start in St. Paul, might get hammered, but should make the team in 2022.

 

Duran will be interesting. If there is a rotation logjam at St. Paul, he might just start the season at AA ball to get into the regular swing.

 

Ober, Ryan, Bundy. Hopefully at least a Pineda with a fifth spot offering a rotation of arms, all that will be hard-pressed to complete 150 innings next season. 

 

 

Canterino and Sands might be the surprise hits for 2022 and the future. 40-man roster decisions will have to be made.

[4twinsJA]

Look for Twins to use non-traditional approach to young starters, using them as openers or piggy-backing starters. It is a way to keep innings down and control pitch counts. My top ten for potential MLB debuts for Twins pitchers are: 

1) Winder- On 40 man and appears to be most ready, will likely start in AAA but look for early callup.

2)Duran- On 40 man, needs work on control and will start in AAA, has MLB stuff.

3)Strotman- On 40 man, look for him to regain control and surprise some people.

4)Balazovic- On 40 man, injuries slowed progress last year, hoping he starts in AAA and mid season callup.

5)Sands- On 40 man, looked almost as good as Winder at AA last year, starts at AAA and mid season callup.

6)Vallimont- Last one on 40 man, maybe longshot, will likely start in AA.

7)Cano- Dominant at times last year, needs to have more control, may get shot in bullpen midseason.

8)Mason-Another reliever that could get an opportunity, will be at AAA to start season.

9)Gore- Still learning to pitch, probably start season in AA.

10)Varland- Longshot, probably starting season in AA, may be late season callup.

 

[TD Mac]

I think two things to consider with this topic are:

1. What would comprise a "successful" debut for any of these pitchers who have not yet pitched at the major league level, and

2. Though the majority of these prospects will undoubtedly NOT pan out, the fact that there are so many encourages me to think at least 1 or 2 should develop into reliable MLB starters

Of the list of "high end" potential starters I break them into three groups:

Near Major League ready: Duran - Winder - Strotman - Balazovic- Sands- Vallimont

Likely still a year+ out: Canterino - Varland - Woods Richardson - Enlow

Others with real potential but likely at least 2+ years out: Petty, Rijo, Lawyerson, Mooney, Gross

While its possible that a pitcher from group two could break through and debut this season, it would be very unlikely that any would make more than a handful (max) of late season starts, Woods Richardson is most likely closest, but at his young age, I'd expect he'd have to be absolutely lights out through mid-June to be any more than a late season callup.

The might be true of Vallimont.  The other 5 in group one all could reasonably have the chance to debut by mid-season, and unless the roster changes dramatically between now and the beginning of the season, Duran and Strotman would each have a chance to break camp with the big team.  

That being said, if any of the group can reasonably be expected to be penciled in as rotation guys in 2023 (ie have similar success as Ober/Ryan had in 2021) I'd say this was a successful debut. Though I would, of course, love to see 2 or 3 establish themselves as major league pitchers, I'd be stunned if that happened in 2022.

[TwinsDr2021]

To me the easy answer is 1 or 2, because isn't that normally what happens? Unless we are counting 5 September starts?

I see Ryan holding his own, and Winder or Balazovic being able to do what Ober did last year. After that I don't see any other starters being up long enough.

and probably a relief pitcher will establish they are a major league relief pitcher, so that is maybe a third.

I am kind of confused on the Duran hype besides the fact he will be 24 in about a week , he has pitched 16 innings the last two years, and prior to that was he was more about potential and less about results.

[MMMordabito]

I voted 1-2 (if I thought Danny Torrance and Dick Hallorann would get called up, it would have been more).

I'd guess that Ryan will do fine, and then one of the starters that debuts will possibly take the opportunity and run with it.

A lot of these guys will end up with too few innings to really make a judgement.  

If the Twins somehow have five prospect starters hold their own at the big league level, then it will be a quick retool and a nice few years being a Twins fan.  One can hope.

[MMMordabito]

On 12/29/2021 at 9:41 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

The current collection of starting pitcher candidates is pointing to a 100 loss season.  If that happens, the Pohlad's should fire Rocco.  Why should he be given any more rope than Molitor was ?  And of course, Falvey and Levine should be checking out their resumes as well.  

I would consider myself a card-carrying member of the Rocco Hater's Club, but I don't see how he would be responsible for failing to roster a collection of competitive starting pitchers.  Falvey and Levine? Sure.   

My gut feel is that we'll see some additions when/if the lockout ends, but they won't be any guys that you can pencil in for 150+ innings or really get excited about.  They'll likely be 20ish start guys like Pineda, Wily Peralta or Brett Anderson that will give you a chance to win most of their starts and shave some innings off what is needed from the young guys,  but they will have IL stints and won't usually go deep in games.

I could easily see a reliever leading the Twins in Wins in 2022.  Hell, Thielbar almost did it last year.

[rv78]

I voted for 5 or more only because there are going to be 10 or more guys getting a chance to shine. The FO didn't make an effort to bring in top FA pitchers. (Big surprise there...NOT). And a blockbuster trade to acquire top pitchers more than likely (95%) won't happen either. Ok young guns, ready or not......

[gman]

I would expect the current list of pitching prospects to make up at least 80% of the rotation and 60% of the bullpen in 3 years. I don't see any specific pitchers listed so I'm considering anyone currently in the system somewhere when I consider possible successful prospects. 

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

I tend to agree with Tom's video that we've had a few prospects in the past that like Ober and Ryan shown some promise when they came up. But never really materialized. We have a lot of promising pitching prospects, with this proposed system I'd expect many would have the opportunity to shine. But to maintain that shine is another story.

My hope is that through this new system of opener/ long relief will provide the means of being less demanding so they can succeed. Also depending too much on non-established SPs is a recipe for disaster. Much like depending too much Cave & Kiriloff to play LF and back up CF. A poor plan A and no plan B.

[ashbury]

Shine? You mean, like a star? And in 2022, it was asked? I went with zero. I've never been so down on this franchise's ability to compete.

[DocBauer]

On 12/29/2021 at 8:34 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think there will definitely be some pitchers in 2022. Past that, I cannot predict anything.

After 2020 and 2021, I'm not comfortable predicting anything about this pitching pipeline but Falvine's jobs should ride on the success or failure of said pipeline.

I think I have to agree with you here with one caveat and one sub-point. The caveat being we don't know what will happen post lockout. The FO could surprise us all with a smart trade and anything from a Rodon signing,  (maybe just a 1yr), to a Pineda signing to at least provide some legitimacy to the rotation. Maybe even that ONE quality arm for the pen that I'm hoping so much for. Such moves could buy time for their "plan" to bear fruit throughout 2022 and moving in to 2023. Not impossible at all a couple smart moves, maybe a little luck, could have the Twins in contention for 90 wins if a few things break right.

My sub-point is the trust Jim has in Falvey and Levine. I think we could argue at length about how much Jim loves baseball, and the Twins specifically, vs the love Carl and is wife loved baseball and the Twins. But thus far, he's seemingly given carte blanche when it comes to revamping the system from the top on down. And compared to what transpired for most of the previous decade before Falvey and Levine came on board, the Twins have had real success, despite the lousy and vastly disappointing 2021 season. I feel that ownership and FO being on the same page is a path to success. Conversely, we've seen teams in all sports where ownership has ridiculous blind faith and they follow down a rabbit hole of frustration and disappointment. I don't think that is the case here, at least not at this point in time. 

I agree that building some sort of pipeline for success, especially pitching, is a key for the FO and the future of the Twins. Ad the FO is tied to that. Fully agree. But I do think the rope has to be elongated with what has transpired the last couple of seasons. And no, I don't have an exact timetable in mind. But previous success on the field, changes in infrastructure, and a LARGE group of potential arms, and positional players, seemingly on the cusp to add to what in place leads me to believe there is no "hot seat" until 2023. 

In the early 80's, the Twins had a handful of seemingly quality arms that were very well regarded from Bumgarner to Gasser to Nivens to Newman, Banks and Pittman and Sontag. And I've watched and followed the system in earnest since those days. This collection of arms and potential is the best I've ever seen in the system. And beyond the first, obvious 10 or so, there are some BP arms and lower level arms that have potential in the next year or so. And besides pitching, there is also a group of very interesting positional players seemingly close to making a mark as starters or quality depth pieces.

Greatness comes. Solid comes. Washouts come. But when you have depth,  you usually find enough to make a difference. 

I'm frustrated as hell about 2022 but trying to be optimistic about promotions of talent and hoping like crazy there are still a couple of moves to be made to keep the Twins relevant and in contention.  And I'm trying to trust in the FO to make a couple great moves to make that happen without going crazy and doing something silly like trading away potential pieces for a short term gain. And I agree the pipeline is tied to their success or failure. But I still don't see any sort of "hot seat" until 2023.

[USAFChief]

The chances of ANY pitching prospect, in ANY organization, "shining" are remote.

 

So the most likely outcome is zero.

 

Might one or two show promise, providing hope he might develop into a quality starter in a year or three? Decent chance.

 

Will the current crop provide all that's needed to compete at some future point? Zero chance. 

[twinfan]

Depends what you mean by "shine". Probably 3-4 will make the roster and 1-2 will shine. By shine, I would say either wins 10 games, saves or holds 25 games, and has an ERA of less than 3.50 (2,50 for a reliever) or a whip of less than 1.20 and a reliever doesn't allow more than 10% of inherited runners to score. I don't believe they will fade after 100 innings either (40 for relievers). Pitchers are babied today and don't get to pitch more than 6 innings as a starter or a single inning as a reliever. While I believe that is poor managing (especially if a reliever has an easy inning), that's the way things are. 

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, twinfan said:

Depends what you mean by "shine". Probably 3-4 will make the roster and 1-2 will shine. By shine, I would say either wins 10 games, saves or holds 25 games, and has an ERA of less than 3.50 (2,50 for a reliever) or a whip of less than 1.20 and a reliever doesn't allow more than 10% of inherited runners to score. I don't believe they will fade after 100 innings either (40 for relievers). Pitchers are babied today and don't get to pitch more than 6 innings as a starter or a single inning as a reliever. While I believe that is poor managing (especially if a reliever has an easy inning), that's the way things are. 

The measure for me is how many make it as solid or better ML pitchers.  How many make it this year will be an important measure but so will how many make it overall from our current system.

Here is how I would measure success.  I expect Ryan and Ober to be solid contributors.  From the group of Balazovic / SWR / Duran / Canterino / Enlow / Winder I expect 3-4 to be solid contributors,  The big question is can one of two can be a front of the rotation guy.  From the group of Sands / Meyer / Raya / Gipson-Long / Valimont / Varland / Srotman / Hajjar, I expect 2-3 will make it as ML pitchers.  If we establish 2 SP and 2 RPs in 2022 however those roles might be defined, I would consider that a success.  Anything beyond that will be highly successful and encouraging for sustained success.