Donaldson contract discussion - 4/100? 4/110?

[Vanimal46]

 

4/110 and it’s done?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

https://twitter.com/aarongleeman/status/1213241105111642113?s=21

 

4/110 and it’s done?

it can’t be that simple, can it?

[FritzDahmus]

I might be wrong, but it looks like Donaldson is staying with Atlanta. Nationals signed a third baseman who could move to second if they sign Donaldson. But, you might say the nationals have moved on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cot's has the Nationals at $38 mil under the luxury tax, before signing Harris ($8 mil).

Updating myself: with the Starlin Castro deal, the Nats would now be $24 mil under the tax threshold, per Cot's.

 

A little tougher to fit in Donaldson, but remember, it's a soft cap. It would just be a little tax if they exceed it. There are still a few arb guys in that number too -- Taylor, Elias, Ross, and Barrett are all pretty superfluous, and are estimated to make $7 mil combined in 2020, not guaranteed yet. One of them could end up traded or just cut to save a few mil.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I might be wrong, but it looks like Donaldson is staying with Atlanta. Nationals signed a third baseman who could move to second if they sign Donaldson. But, you might say the nationals have moved on.

Castro is a second baseman. He never played third until a bit last year with the Marlins, when they broke in a prospect at 2B. And the Nationals have a wide open hole at 2B too, with Dozier and Asdrubal Cabrera departing as free agents.

[Danchat]

it can’t be that simple, can it?

$27.5M per year for 4 years for a 34 year old guy is a lot of money... I don’t see the FO offering that much.

[howeda7]

 

4/110 and it’s done?

Sounds like it. But the Twins have drawn their line in the sand at 4/$100 and won't budge, I reckon. Principles!

[howeda7]

 

 

$27.5M per year for 4 years for a 34 year old guy is a lot of money... I don’t see the FO offering that much.

So is $25 million. Missing out on a guy you want over $2.5 million/year when you're $30 million under budget is beyond foolish.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So is $25 million. Missing out on a guy you want over $2.5 million/year when you're $30 million under budget is beyond foolish.

this!

 

I imagine the bigger impediment at this point is the game of chicken. Falvine may think they are high bid and don’t want to bid against themselves.

[Dman]

 

$27.5M per year for 4 years for a 34 year old guy is a lot of money... I don’t see the FO offering that much.

 

I agree I think they go 4/100 and not a penny more.  Maybe they meet in the middle at 4/105, lol.  Dang 27.5 is brutal money for a guy that might not play that well 2 out of four years.  I absolutely love our lineup with him in it I am just not sure I want to invest that money in a position player instead of pitching.

 

If the Twins are willing to go 25M or more per year then they really must have not liked Ryu all that much as they could have offered him that money and got him for 4 years.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree I think they go 4/100 and not a penny more. Maybe they meet in the middle at 4/105, lol. Dang 27.5 is brutal money for a guy that might not play that well 2 out of four years. I absolutely love our lineup with him in it I am just not sure I want to invest that money in a position player instead of pitching.

they aren’t going to invest 27 mil in pitching anyways. If Donaldson doesn’t get it, no one else will.

 

If the Twins want to swing a trade for pitching, it’ll be for Boyd or part of Price’s contract. Something where if they needed to, they could offload Rosario and recover 2/3 of the cost.

[DocBauer]

So is $25 million. Missing out on a guy you want over $2.5 million/year when you're $30 million under budget is beyond foolish.

Exactly! We're talking silly money here. But at this point, $2.5M more per year, especially for an AL team that has the DH for him to possibly slide in to a couple years from now, would be silly not to say yes to. I understand there is an invisible wall at some point you just don't push beyond. Just hard to believe the extra $2.5 would be that wall.

[Andrew610i3]

Do you pony up the cash? That's supposedly where he's drawn the line.

 

I would. Rumor has us offering 4/100...another 10 million at that point is pretty frivolous. Of course, it ain't money.

[twins_89]

I'd give him a $110M guarantee structured as $25M/year for the first 4 years and the 5th year being a $20M team option with a $10M buyout.

[darin617]

I would not do that for 27.5M a season. I would pay 2/60 though if we had to sign him. Not interested in 4 years at all.

 

The Twins are not lacking power sources at all. So technically all they are paying for is the defense in a sense.  Pitching is what wins in the playoffs not power.

 

Hoping for Atlanta to get this deal done with soon so this can be over.

[ScooterDance]

I say go for it. This was the FA crop to sign a stud pitcher and they didn’t. It’s a lot of bacon for sure, but he was a 6 WAR player last year. He’s not just a Rosario who puts up a lot of counting stats and bad defense.

 

I would rather we “went for it” this year and signed one of the best players in a stud FA class (Odorizzi wasn’t chopped liver either), than be done here and have to punt on 4th down after going 3 and out against NYY.

[nicksaviking]

”in the $110 million range” is both uniquely specific and somewhat vague. Most here seem willing but a bit weary of going to 27.5M per year, which is a significantly higher AAV than originally expected. Maybe we have it wrong and he’s looking for five years at ~22M and the fifth year is where the teams are balking.

[Brandon]

Do it. If the Twins are going to punt on the pitching, we need to help what pitching we have and we also need to bludgeon the opposing team offensively.

[h2oface]

4/$100M , with a 5th year vesting option for another $25M that is based on an agreed upon worthy performance criteria. Let him bet on himself, and if he achieves it, it has to be great for the team, too.

[wabene]

Geez that is a lot of scratch. 34. 4/110 and how does he fit into the clubhouse? I'd be working on a trade for a pitcher and if that was a worse deal then maybe.

[Linus]

WALK AWAY!

[cjj td]

Pay this man his money,

[shimrod]

I'd rather see us obtain starting pitching from a club shedding payroll. (absorb the expense rather than giving up prospects). If we're not going that route, by all means give it to Donaldson.

 

If the team had a policy of making unspent funds available for use in future years I'd be okay with accumulating the financial assets to make a splash in 2021. As long as the owners continue pocketing any unspent money I'd rather see us spending to the max allocated. Pitching's the need but another bat won't hurt either, much less improved D. Signing Donaldson would be the first move that actually looks like an improvement rather than just treading water. 

 

I think this team needs to send a signal, both to the league and to the players, that we will use all available resources to win. Right now we don't have that. I think it impacts our ability to obtain extensions and hurts us in the FA market. It will probably take an overpay or two to send that message. 

[TL]

Yes. Signing him also helps our pitchers due to his defensive value. Front load it at 30/30/30/20 to help with signing internal guys as they hit free agency down the road. Trade for a pitcher at the deadline.

[AlwaysinModeration]

A lot of the “tea leaves” reading have assumed that because he said he would let Atlanta match any offer, and he is from the south, that he prefers Atlanta.

 

I think a better way of looking at it would be he liked Atlanta just fine, but really he was telling them—I’m exploring the market, but I won’t sign a contract without extending you the courtesy of checking back with you.

 

That doesn’t mean, you match it, and I’m staying in Atlanta. It just means he’d loop back in with them before signing elsewhere.

[big dog]

I don't care about the money this year, but aren't we at some point talking about either paying a 38-yr-old DH vs paying a 28-yr-old Sano/Buxton/Kepler/whomever?  The budget is going to get pretty hammered in 2-3 years.

 

If this were a pitcher who had a good chance to put us over the top this year, I'm in. A great-when-he's-not-injured hitter/defender for his age 35-38 years?  The opportunity cost of this is too high for me.

[MMMordabito]

If the FO truly believe they are sitting on a Clevinger/Bieber/Civale-esque trio among the Graterol/Duran/Balazovic/Canterino/et Al group of pitching prospects, then they should just go for it on this deal. Pineda at $10 Mill in 2021 should be a bargain. Berrios will still be under control. 28+ Mill will come off the books via Odo/Bailey/Hill. They should have a really good idea of what they have in Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer. One deal like this shouldn't handcuff the org. It's when you do three or four of them like Detroit and LAA that you get yourself in a bind.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't care about the money this year, but aren't we at some point talking about either paying a 38-yr-old DH vs paying a 28-yr-old Sano/Buxton/Kepler/whomever? The budget is going to get pretty hammered in 2-3 years.

 

If this were a pitcher who had a good chance to put us over the top this year, I'm in. A great-when-he's-not-injured hitter/defender for his age 35-38 years? The opportunity cost of this is too high for me.

Berrios and Odorizzi are the only part of the current core that I would look to extend, but the odds are low at that.

 

Sano appears destined for first. First baseman are more fungible, and I’m banking on Kirilloff being ready in two years.

 

Buxton has never been healthy, extending a guy who plays 80 game changing games a year seems like a stretch, plus if you were going to extend him, why play the service time game the way they did?

 

Polanco and Kepler are already locked up.

 

As things sit, I’m year to year with DH and that is my fallback for when JD can’t play third anymore.

 

One player at 27 mil and everyone else in the 600k or arb isn’t going to deter an extension with Odo and Berrios, it’s the FOs view on volatility of pitching.

[ewen21]

I don't care about the money this year, but aren't we at some point talking about either paying a 38-yr-old DH vs paying a 28-yr-old Sano/Buxton/Kepler/whomever? The budget is going to get pretty hammered in 2-3 years.

 

If this were a pitcher who had a good chance to put us over the top this year, I'm in. A great-when-he's-not-injured hitter/defender for his age 35-38 years? The opportunity cost of this is too high for me.

Kepler already was extended and who knows if we will even want Buxton and/or Sano in a few years? Both are not stable by any means. If I put my chips on one it would be Sano. At this point no one should be worried about locking up Buxton. The greater concern with him should be: can he stay on the field and can he improve offensively?

 

I get your point, though. As much as I like Donaldson I think we missed the boat on the guy.

[jorgenswest]

I think the Twins and others probably were at 80 million on a four year deal ready to go to 90 at an extra 2.5 million per year. 110 million would look more like an additional 30 million or 7.5 million. They really have to believe in their ability to develop controllable pitching to make this commitment.

 

I think part of my motivation is I want to see the Twins willingness to do a bad contract like this. I am having my doubts about whether this is the right bad contract to take on.

 

The better route might be trade Larnach for Ray (or Gray or ...) and lock them up in a deal for four or five years.