Donaldson contract discussion - 4/100? 4/110?

[Dave Overlund]

 

MLBTR projected 3/75, and most FA are beating those projections this offseason, and arguably a 4/80-85 offer is not as good as 3/75.

Hey they were only $68m off on Cole, $65m off on Stras, $26m off on Ryu.... 

[Major League Ready]

 

Would offering Cole 6/150 have been a serious offer?

 

Would offering Pineada 6/150 been serious? What does one have to do with the other? Cole is an entirely different player. Everyone knew he was getting north of $200M. The Twins came in with what expected to be an offer that had a serious chance at landing the player. 6/150 for Cole would never have been considered a legit offer.

[Major League Ready]

 

MLBTR projected 3/75, and most FA are beating those projections this offseason, and arguably a 4/80-85 offer is not as good as 3/75.

 

How often would you expect a 34 y/o player to take 3/75 over 4/85 if those are the only two options? My guess is the 34 y/o player takes the 4/85 ninety percent of the time.

[USAFChief]

It's not "controversial," it's just a false statement. Here's an easy proof:

 

1. Before free agency, Player X is projected by various internet sites to get a $75 million contract

2. On day 1 of free agency, Team 1 offers Player X an $80 million contract, but the player waits for other offers

3. On day 90 of free agency, Team 2 offers Player X $90 million and he accepts on the spot.

 

According to you, Team 1's offer was not "serious" because it's significantly lower than Team 2's offer. But in reality, it was fully intended to be a winning offer, and only due to subsequent events was it unsuccessful.

 

This is not a commentary on Donaldson, but just to point out that you're wrong in how you define a "serious offer."

1. MLBTR isnt in charge of pricing free agents, nor determining the market. Using "various internet sites" as the gold standard from which to measure sets up a false measuring stick that offers no "proof" of anything.

 

2. In item 2, you ignore length of contract. Would 80 years at $1m per year beat 3 at $25? By your standards, yes. But I doubt it would in the real world.

 

Line item 3 ignores the simple truth that if a free agent rejects $80, and later accepts $90, he and his agent correctly estimated how "serious" teams were in their pursuit. Team 1 didn't, therefore wasnt "serious."

 

In short, I dont think you've provided proof of anything.

[tony&rodney]

We are just guessing at the numbers, even approximate  numbers. We can think he only wants to play for Atlanta or Washington, but it seems equally likely that he would really enjoy hitting in the Twins lineup and fishing the area lakes.

How far are the Twins willing to go to sign Donaldson? Are they prepared to go over their initial offer or reach his request?

I'm ready to watch a few rookies and Gonzalez alternate with anyone else at 1B and believe Sano is fine at 3B. I'm also hoping to see what Thorpe, Dobnak, and Graterol can do on the mound.

The topic is Donaldson, so ...

Q: Does Donaldson improve the Twins roster? A: Yes!

Q: Do the Twins have the money to sign him? A: Yes!

Q: Are they willing to meet his price? A: We don't know now. We will know eventually.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How often would you expect a 34 y/o player to take 3/75 over 4/85 if those are the only two options? My guess is the 34 y/o player takes the 4/85 ninety percent of the time.

First of all, it's not a clear 4/85 offer -- it's "in the 80-85 mil range" according to the report. So right off the bat, we're not even sure it's +$10 mil or just +$5 mil (or if there are incentives etc. in there).

 

If it's actually $85 mil, it is certainly possible some players might prefer that over 3/75, although 90% seems high. Especially in this context, of a player considering a less familiar location at 4/85 -- he might value his freedom after 3 years (even the freedom to retire at that time), and getting $75 mil in those 3 years from a more familiar club, more than locking himself into a 4th year at that unfamiliar location just for a few extra mil (and presumably only getting ~$63 mil over the first 3 years, time value of money and all that). Additionally, a player chasing a ring might ask if the 4/85 organization is going to pursue that as aggressively as the team offering 3/75, which is going to further affect how he values that extra year and extra ~$10 mil.

 

Which is why, in this context, I'd say 4/80-85 from the Twins is not clearly better than 3/75. It's not necessarily much worse either, but it's not clearly better like some are suggesting. (And according to the report, since 4/80-85 isn't the high offer, that suggests at least one other team might agree with me too. )

 

Edit to add: the Bumgarner example is interesting. He had 4/70 offers, and eventually signed for what I think gets valued at 5/81 after discounting deferments. But he extracted that offer and signed it at a preferred, familiar location. I don't think a Twins offer of 5/81 would have been clearly better than Arizona's 4/70 (especially if it wasn't necessarily $81 mil, and could have been closer to $75 mil before incentives or something -- and especially if there was higher offer closer to 5/90 somewhere else!). In fact, it seems possible that Bumgarner used the interest of other clubs to extract that extra year and $11 mil from his preferred destination -- something Donaldson could do too, if other teams were offering 3/75 to the Twins 4/85.

[Major League Ready]

 

First of all, it's not a clear 4/85 offer -- it's "in the 80-85 mil range" according to the report. So right off the bat, we're not even sure it's +$10 mil or just +$5 mil (or if there are incentives etc. in there).

 

You are changing my argument. I acknowledged that a choice between 75 and 80 is different than a choice between 75 and 85. You used a range when the difference in that range was material IMO. I was not speculating. I offered a specific scenario. I offered the opinion that 4/85 would be most often accepted by a 34/yo player. I think it's pretty obvious a $10M difference would entice a higher percentage of players to accept than a $5M difference. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You are changing my argument. I acknowledged that a choice between 75 and 80 is different than a choice between 75 and 85. You used a range when the difference in that range was material IMO. I was not speculating. I offered a specific scenario. I offered the opinion that 4/85 would be most often accepted by a 34/yo player. I think it's pretty obvious a $10M difference would entice a higher percentage of players to accept than a $5M difference. 

I'm not changing your argument, just like you weren't changing my argument by saying $85 mil when my post and the report said $80-85. We're just talking about two related things, a hypothetical and a reality, and I was pointing out a relevant difference between them.

 

I addressed your $85 mil hypothetical in the very next paragraph of my post, and agreed with your general feeling although not endorsing your 90% number.

[drivlikejehu]

 

1. MLBTR isnt in charge of pricing free agents, nor determining the market. Using "various internet sites" as the gold standard from which to measure sets up a false measuring stick that offers no "proof" of anything.

2. In item 2, you ignore length of contract. Would 80 years at $1m per year beat 3 at $25? By your standards, yes. But I doubt it would in the real world.

Line item 3 ignores the simple truth that if a free agent rejects $80, and later accepts $90, he and his agent correctly estimated how "serious" teams were in their pursuit. Team 1 didn't, therefore wasnt "serious."

In short, I dont think you've provided proof of anything.

 

It was obviously a simplified example - the logical fact behind it is that a club can make an offer they fully believe to be viable, but not land the player. It's hard to understand why clubs would generally bother with "non-serious" offers.

 

Even if the Twins were putting out "non-serious" offers in order to trick the fanbase, which is an extremely dubious proposition, it simply defies belief that the big market clubs would do such a thing, and yet they miss out on free agents all the time (more often than small market clubs, because big market teams are more active in free agency). 

 

So the reality is that teams do not just put out "non-serious" offers to waste everyone's time. They might misjudge the market, or not cave at the end, or whatever, but those things are unpredictable. 

[Mr. Brooks]

It was obviously a simplified example - the logical fact behind it is that a club can make an offer they fully believe to be viable, but not land the player. It's hard to understand why clubs would generally bother with "non-serious" offers.

 

Even if the Twins were putting out "non-serious" offers in order to trick the fanbase, which is an extremely dubious proposition, it simply defies belief that the big market clubs would do such a thing, and yet they miss out on free agents all the time (more often than small market clubs, because big market teams are more active in free agency).

 

So the reality is that teams do not just put out "non-serious" offers to waste everyone's time. They might misjudge the market, or not cave at the end, or whatever, but those things are unpredictable.

I don't think it's anything as nefarious as trying to trick the fanbase.

 

I think they are just so locked into this silly "assigned value", that they end up making unrealistic offers and not budging on them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It was obviously a simplified example - the logical fact behind it is that a club can make an offer they fully believe to be viable, but not land the player. It's hard to understand why clubs would generally bother with "non-serious" offers.

 

Even if the Twins were putting out "non-serious" offers in order to trick the fanbase, which is an extremely dubious proposition, it simply defies belief that the big market clubs would do such a thing, and yet they miss out on free agents all the time (more often than small market clubs, because big market teams are more active in free agency). 

 

So the reality is that teams do not just put out "non-serious" offers to waste everyone's time. They might misjudge the market, or not cave at the end, or whatever, but those things are unpredictable. 

I didn't introduce the term here, but it's my understanding that by "non-serious", posters generally aren't suggesting it's some kind of trick or PR stunt.

 

I think by "non-serious", they mean the offer is more about hoping to land the player / getting a particular value, rather than actually landing the player.

 

Such offers aren't necessarily bad, and may often be preferable to, say, "paying whatever it takes." But if you're always just hoping, or focused on a particular value, you may not actually land anyone when you need them (at least not in that tier of free agency). It's a competitive market and sometimes your offer needs to set you apart.

[tony&rodney]

 

"It's a competitive market and sometimes your offer needs to set you apart." - spycake

 

Probing and working from valuations is fine if there is intent to seek a positive result. I think all teams are hoping for additions which fit inside their schemes. Yet, this market has demanded a shift in thinking and a proactive approach to a "best" offer has a place or the price offered meets the perceived need.

The quote from spycake succinctly says it all. A key word, "sometimes". Many Twins fans see that as now.

[cardsfan]

Instead of Donaldson I would sign Puig instead who did quite well for Cleveland especially his last month. 2 years. Move Rosario to 1st base.

 

You might get 30 HRs or more with all of the bad teams in the AL.

[nicksaviking]

From Steve Adams chat:

 

Donaldson Ducks
2:45 Do you think anyone meets Donaldson's $110 million amount?
Steve Adams
2:47 I don't. That seems like a case of his camp overplaying its hand. Look at the latest reports on him... Twins around $85MM. Braves "not close" to having the top offer. Nats have signed three infielders in three weeks. Who's going to suddenly jump to 110 to get this done?

I think he'll sign under $100MM and there'll be some narratives surrounding why he took less than his asking price. "Really wanted to stay in ATL," or "Really wanted to join the WS champs" or "Loved the Twins' young core and a weak AL Central pitching landscape," etc.

 

Nats

2:47 Chances we sign Donaldson?
Steve Adams
2:48 At this point I'd just put 30% on each of the Twins/Braves/Nats and throw a 10% "you never know" option out there for the ever-popular "mystery" team. (Maybe the Dodgers will get weird and offer him like 2/65 or something)

 

 

That all sounds like an accurate take to me. Not sure about his percentages, but I'll bet the final narrative ends up sounding like this. At this point I don't think Donaldson is going to get what he wants. Maybe his camp said $110M hoping to get one of the teams to $100M.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Instead of Donaldson I would sign Puig instead who did quite well for Cleveland especially his last month. 2 years. Move Rosario to 1st base.

You might get 30 HRs or more with all of the bad teams in the AL.

Puig his 7 HR in 240 PA vs AL teams last year, vs. 11 HR in 201 PA vs the mighty NL Central.

 

Only 2 HR, 0.5-0.6 WAR, and a .380 BABIP after his trade to Cleveland too.

 

You can sign him for St. Louis if you like him so much.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe his camp said $110M hoping to get one of the teams to $100M.

That's my guess. If the Twins are indeed at $85 mil and the Nats are already above that, it's not necessarily a bad strategy for him either.

[Vanimal46]

The “assigned values” explains a lot as to why the Twins lose on top free agents. Sure, in the right circumstance they can land Nelson Cruz... Assigned values are great for fringe/bounce back free agents. However, it’s a losing strategy 9 times out of 10 for the top dogs.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't think it's anything as nefarious as trying to trick the fanbase.

I think they are just so locked into this silly "assigned value", that they end up making unrealistic offers and not budging on them.

 

At this moment there are literally thousands of assessments going on in corporate america to assign value to acquisitions, Operating Changes, and various other strategies. It's absolutely a staple in strategic practice in every type of business. We teach it in every collegiate business program in the country. Something is not silly and the people utilizing the practice are not stupid because a subset of sports fanatics don't understand it.

[Squirrel]

 

From Steve Adams chat:

 

Donaldson Ducks
2:45 Do you think anyone meets Donaldson's $110 million amount?
Steve Adams
2:47 I don't. That seems like a case of his camp overplaying its hand. Look at the latest reports on him... Twins around $85MM. Braves "not close" to having the top offer. Nats have signed three infielders in three weeks. Who's going to suddenly jump to 110 to get this done?

I think he'll sign under $100MM and there'll be some narratives surrounding why he took less than his asking price. "Really wanted to stay in ATL," or "Really wanted to join the WS champs" or "Loved the Twins' young core and a weak AL Central pitching landscape," etc.

 

Nats

2:47 Chances we sign Donaldson?
Steve Adams
2:48 At this point I'd just put 30% on each of the Twins/Braves/Nats and throw a 10% "you never know" option out there for the ever-popular "mystery" team. (Maybe the Dodgers will get weird and offer him like 2/65 or something)

 

 

That all sounds like an accurate take to me. Not sure about his percentages, but I'll bet the final narrative ends up sounding like this. At this point I don't think Donaldson is going to get what he wants. Maybe his camp said $110M hoping to get one of the teams to $100M.

 

Yep ... I think this was his ploy to see who blinked first or to get someone to come up. No one has blinked, yet, so ... wait and see. But since no one is quick to up their offer ... the Nats have clearly stated theirs is still on the table but they aren't upping it ... and the Braves upped theirs to add a 4th year, but monetarily, no one sounds close to the 110 he wants. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yep ... I think this was his ploy to see who blinked first or to get someone to come up. No one has blinked, yet, so ... wait and see. But since no one is quick to up their offer ... the Nats have clearly stated theirs is still on the table but they aren't upping it ... and the Braves upped theirs to add a 4th year, but monetarily, no one sounds close to the 110 he wants. 

We went through this with Darvish... sadly we know how it ended as the Cubs swooped in last minute to get him... 

 

To some extent, it would be smart to blink b/c someone will swoop in last minute and get him. If we've got the highest at 4/85 or whatever it is, tack another 10 onto it and give him a take it or leave it decision. He's going to lose all leverage if we're out. 

[Mr. Brooks]

At this moment there are literally thousands of assessments going on in corporate america to assign value to acquisitions, Operating Changes, and various other strategies. It's absolutely a staple in strategic practice in every type of business. We teach it in every collegiate business program in the country. Something is not silly and the people utilizing the practice are not stupid because a subset of sports fanatics don't understand it.

As a starting point in an attempt to estimate an unknown market value, sure.

 

Treating it as gospel that you won't move an inch off, even after entering the market and finding that your assigned values are not competitive in the actual marketplace, no. Silly, in any business.

[Squirrel]

 

We went through this with Darvish... sadly we know how it ended as the Cubs swooped in last minute to get him... 

 

To some extent, it would be smart to blink b/c someone will swoop in last minute and get him. If we've got the highest at 4/85 or whatever it is, tack another 10 onto it and give him a take it or leave it decision. He's going to lose all leverage if we're out. 

 

Well, since they (JD's manager and the Twins FO) have been in daily communication, according to reports, I would hope the Twins would have the opportunity to add to their offer if the Braves up their offer. I don't really consider it a 'swoop' unless some mystery team comes in and beats out both the Braves and the Twins. (The Cubs were always in on Darvish, so I don't consider that a swoop.) But yeah ... the Twins could avoid that from happening by jumping to the max right now. I'm not suggesting they shouldn't ... but I do think the 4/110 was a ploy to set the price high so his manager could hopefully negotiate something higher than what is currently being offered. But yeah ... I suppose another team could swoop in and offer that, I guess, but I'm not sure who is out there now who will do that. So, it's a ploy to maximize his deal, swoop or no swoop.

[KirbyDome89]

 

If the measure of a serious offer is the top offer, only one team can have a serious offer? That's a ridiculous standard.  It sounds like only one team has a higher offer than us.  

 

Given that the other 27 teams aren't offering as much as the Twins, I'd say that their offer is indeed serious.  

 

I don't mean to suggest that the Twins shouldn't offer more, they should, but come on, devoting 85 million to a mid-thirties player is serious, even if they don't win the bidding.

"Serious," is being used a few different ways here. 

 

I'm sure MN is serious about obtaining a player at an assigned value, i.e. their own offer. What they haven't shown interest in, is meeting market value Ultimately the latter is more important to signing FAs than the former, and that's precisely why this offseason has gone so poorly. The FO might be serious about spending a set amount on player X, but it's more than fair to question how serious their offers have been relative to what FAs have signed for and/or demanded. 

[nicksaviking]

 

At this moment there are literally thousands of assessments going on in corporate america to assign value to acquisitions, Operating Changes, and various other strategies. It's absolutely a staple in strategic practice in every type of business. We teach it in every collegiate business program in the country. Something is not silly and the people utilizing the practice are not stupid because a subset of sports fanatics don't understand it.

 

That's true, but you can have multiple businesses of the same ilk be successful, but at the end of the year only one baseball team gets to take home the trophy. While corporations compete, it's an entirely different form of competition. Unlike baseball, they don't go by Highlander rules: There can be only one.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

That's true, but you can have multiple businesses of the same ilk be successful, but at the end of the year only one baseball team gets to take home the trophy. While corporations compete, it's an entirely different form of competition. Unlike baseball, they don't go by Highlander rules: There can be only one.

 

I have no idea what point you are making. Can we agree that teams with less than average revenue have to produce more wins/per dollar spent if they are to compete with teams with more revenue?

[ewen21]

 

I have no idea what point you are making. Can we agree that teams with less than average revenue have to produce more wins/per dollar spent if they are to compete with teams with more revenue?

When simple concepts like this need to be explained it is hard to have good conversation

 

What about the larger point?  The REAL REASON why teams have trepidation meeting Donaldson's "price point"

 

F- his price point.  He isn't a AA government bond.  He is a 34 year old third baseman asking for 9 figures.  He has hit the qualifying number of plate appearances ONCE in the last four seasons.  To complain about the Twins not outbidding the rest of the league when we already have Miguel Sano at third base is a little much.

[Rosterman]

I'm hoping his bluff is called. In the end, you can get him reasonable for years 3 and 4 if you give an upfront signing bonus.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea what point you are making. Can we agree that teams with less than average revenue have to produce more wins/per dollar spent if they are to compete with teams with more revenue?

Has anyone argued otherwise? You yourself said that this year they should sign a legit free agent. This is the one that is left. I'm not sure it's sign him, but that about trading for expensive pitching instead.

[Mike Sixel]

When simple concepts like this need to be explained it is hard to have good conversation

 

What about the larger point? The REAL REASON why teams have trepidation meeting Donaldson's "price point"

 

F- his price point. He isn't a AA government bond. He is a 34 year old third baseman asking for 9 figures. He has hit the qualifying number of plate appearances ONCE in the last four seasons. To complain about the Twins not outbidding the rest of the league when we already have Miguel Sano at third base is a little much.

It doesn't need explaining. No one is saying otherwise.

[Major League Ready]

 

Has anyone argued otherwise? You yourself said that this year they should sign a legit free agent. This is the one that is left. I'm not sure it's sign him, but that about trading for expensive pitching instead.

 

It is implied by the position that assessed value is stupid. Putting the best team on the field requires getting the most value per $ spent. On several occasions in the past posters have stated they could care less about winning the value proposition. This ignores the need to get production per dollar spent. The basis of any personnel strategy in MLB is assessed value. So, in a word, yes!