Front Page: Offseason Blueprint: Bet the Farm

[Matthew Taylor]

As much as I would like to design my offseason blueprint around the Twins pushing all of their chips into the middle of the table and upping their payroll to $150 million or more, I have years and years of history telling me that isn’t going to happen.But what if the Minnesota Twins can head into 2020 with a VERY conservative $130 million payroll, still land big time players and roll into the season as a heavy favorite not only in the Central, but in the American League. Through savvy trades and leaning on a talented farm system, the Twins are in an excellent position to make this happen. Here’s how …

 

Non-Tender C.J. Cron, replace him with Alex Kirilloff at First Base

 

Cron’s 2019 season was truly a “tale of two thumbs”. Pre-injury Cron was looking to be a revelation for the Twins, but after his injury his OPS dropped to .700. Now entering his final year of arbitration, and with the thumb still a question mark, the $7M arbitration price is too much for me.

 

The price tag is even more for me considering that I can replace him with Kiriloff and save $6.5M that I can put towards starting pitching (which we’ll see played out later). Kirilloff is a young bat with plenty of upside who posted a .851 OPS in his final month in Pensacola. Kirilloff will also benefit from having Marwin Gonzalez and Ehrie Adrianza on the 26-man roster who can nobly fill in at first base as needed.

 

Trade Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach and Jhoan Duran to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Matthew Boyd — replace Rosario with Brent Rooker in Left Field

 

While Eddie Rosario somehow received MVP votes for his 2019 performance, I continue to find myself looking at the peripheral stats and fast declining defense as a player that the Twins can afford to part ways with. That’s why I’m trading away Rosario and prospects to the Tigers in exchange for Matthew Boyd, the 28 year old starting pitcher with a devastating slider. Boyd is set to make just $6.4M in 2020 and still has three years of team control to his name.

 

In my offseason blueprint, I will be replacing Eddie Rosario in left field with AAA prospect Brent Rooker. Rooker was dominant in AAA in 2019 when he was healthy, posting a .933 OPS with 14 home runs in 65 games. Rooker is already 25 years old and appears to be major league ready. Swapping out Rosario for Rooker allows the Twins to acquire a potentially dominant rotation arm while saving money that can be used elsewhere.

 

Download attachment: MTlineup.png

 

Re-sign Jason Castro to a 1 year/$6M deal

 

Bringing Castro back on a one year deal makes too much sense. He’s a left hander which works well for platooning with Garver and he provides enough production both at the plate and behind the plate to warrant bringing him back.

 

Download attachment: MTbench.png

 

Sign Gerrit Cole to a 8 year/$280M deal

 

Because of the money we saved by replacing C.J. Cron and Eddie Rosario with minimum salary prospects, the Twins are now in a place to acquire a big time salary without sacrificing as much on the books. In my offseason blueprint they will do this by signing Gerrit Cole to a 8 year/$280M contract. While our offseason handbook has Cole tabbed for a 7 year year contract at $32M a year, I believe the only way for the Twins to have a shot at signing the superstar would be to up the years 8 and AAV to $35M. By doing this the Twins will set themselves up to have a true ace in Cole to go along with elite depth in Berrios, Odorizzi and Boyd.

 

Should the Twins be unable to get Cole to agree to a deal with Minnesota, that $35M could be used to sign two of Wheeler, Ryu or Bumgarner, which would hardly be something we could be disappointed with. For this exercise though, the Twins nab Cole.

 

Download attachment: MTrotation.png

 

Sign Sergio Romo to a 1 year/$3M deal

 

The Twins bullpen had an up and down year in 2019, but finished the regular season on an incredibly high note. I will look to keep the bullpen together to start the 2019 season knowing that I have arms in the farm system as well as plenty of trade targets throughout the season that I can always acquire if I need to. Sergio Romo is as consistent and reliable of a reliever as you can ask for, and for just a one year deal at $3M, I’m ecstatic to bring the fan favorite back to Target Field in 2020.

 

Download attachment: MTbullpen.png

 

With all of the previous moves taken into account, here is how final payroll will look:

• Starting Lineup: $33.7M
• Bench: $18.6M
• Starting Rotation: $64.3M
• Bullpen: $13.2M
• Perez Buyout: 0.5M

$130.3 Opening Day 2020 Payroll

 

The odds of the Minnesota Twins upping their payroll to the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees is next to zero. It won’t happen. But should the Twins decide to get creative by making strategic cuts and trades, they could up their payroll to a more conservative and realistic $130M and still make impactful moves that would put them in the driver's seat of the American League.

 

Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook.

 

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[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I can't see Detroit trading Boyd within the division

[jrod23]

The Kirilloff and Rooker stuff is pretty bold.  I like it.  However, if we bring up Rooker now, I think we're looking at a sub-.200 hitter for the first half of the season.  He'll rebound well and do great eventually, but to start, not so much.

[Crackedfungo]

Larnach, Rosario, and Duran is WAY too much for Matthew Boyd.  We have no reason to trade that much for a slightly above average pitcher for an everyday player (that flirts with All Star numbers), and 2 of our Top 8 prospects.  Boyd will be 29, and has similar peripherals as Kyle Gibson (though is 3 years younger).  Would you trade the haul proposed for Gibson - neither would I

[peterb18]

Rosario can do three things that not many can do as a whole. Some can do one or two.

But Rosario can:

1. Hit a home run.

2. Steal a base.

3. Throw a runner out.

Hard to trade a player like that.

 

 

 

[DavidGould]

I would be so mad if the twins trade Eddie I’d be SUPER MAD if we traded him for Matthew Boyd... terrible terrible idea

[TL]

While unlikely that Cole signs even for that kind of money, I like the aggressive thinking. No doubt we win the division with Cole and Boyd added to the mix and then by October we will be dangerous. I think it is an overpay for Boyd though and could see swapping Rooker for Larnach and then starting Larnach in LF. 

[nclahammer]

I like the optimism, but expecting 2 players (Kirilloff and Rooker) without MLB experience to fill even close to 50+ HRs and 190 RBI that Rosario and Cron combined for, IMO is unrealistic. 

[RochesterDave]

I also believe that the Twins must improve their defense, especially the infield. First Base is a big question mark, as pre-injury Cron was a pretty good player at bat and in the field. So for the author’s design, much of this is predicated on how CJ’s thumb prognosis is. I doubt Kiriloff is an accomplished 1B yet, as he hasn’t played that position much in the minors. After having watched Rooker (his best position is Bat) this season in LF, he isn’t close to Eddie in range or arm. So both of these positions would be downgraded defensively, and that’s not the direction the Twins are hoping to go. I never saw Rooker at First this year in Rochester, as he was usually in LF, DH or injured (half the season). I think for the future, Kiriloff in LF and Rooker at 1B/DH may make more sense. I am hoping we see both Kiriloff and Lewis here in AAA this season.

[chinmusic]

No Brusdar Graterol on your roster?

[Thrylos]

Steamer projects a 97 wRC+ for Rooker and 95 wRC+ for Kirilloff.  That would replace Rosario's 103 and Cron's 101, which will likey made the 2020 Twins worse, if you add the facts that Boyd (93 FIP-) will be replacing Pineda (87 FIP-), and Romo and Castro were in the 2019 team that went belly up (again) in the postseason, Cole or no Cole.

 

They got to trade prospects, like Kirilloff, not veterans who are coming from underperforming, yet better than average seasons and are solid cogs in a team...

[HrbieFan]

I would scrounge around for a veteran OF to replace Eddie if he is traded. Someone looking for a bounce back year. No sense starting the clock early on top prospects

[Roccofan]

No way Cole is coming to Minnesota!

 

He is going to go to the Angels, the Dodgers or the Padres.

[FritzDahmus]

The main issue with this team is the lack of veteran arms in the bullpen. I don't know enough about the Bullpen Free Agent market to have solutions....but I do know where the Twins have issues.

 

Why not just get rid of Perez....and spend money on the Bullpen and one starter?

 

Both scenarios I've seen on this web site mess with the everyday lineup too much.

[Aerodeliria]

I watched some of the global games going on here in Japan. On Team USA, it was Rooker who looked like the most accomplished hitter on the team. I'm not sure what his average was after all was said and done, but he was hitting .500 for the tournament when they played Team Japan (including two jacks).

 

Also of note is that Yamaguchi from the Yomiuri Giants will be posted for MLB next year. He was overused by the Giants--sometimes throwing north of 130 pitches in one outing. He specializes in throwing junk. I think he has 5-6 pitches he uses regularly. He might be a nice player for long relief.

 

I keep thinking that Sakamoto will post from the Giants as well. I know he's a SS, but I'd go all in to get him. He's a tremendous fielder and a natural hitter with surprising power. We could move Polanco over to 2nd and put Arraez at third and move Sano to first (which is inevitable IMHO).

[srlarson]

first of all everyone HR's will be down next year....did yo not see the baseball in the postseason....so time to look for high ave on base hitters....I do like Eddie, but agree if they need to trade him get a pitcher that can help.  No way the top Pitchers are coming to MN......so we need to go down the food chain....

 

I like the Wheeler thought.....

 

I also like getting some of the young guys up..... But I think you need Garver in the lineup 125-135 games w that that bat....and that isn't going to be behind the plate.....so castro back on a deal is good, and astidillo or another C I am good with.  

 

Dump Cave....as an injury replacement up from AAA he is ok...but not worthy of a 26 man roster spot.  

[adorduan]

Why would Detroit want Rosario?  They are in total rebuild mode...

[jjswol]

Why trade Rosario who admittedly had a bad season in the field but knocked in 100+ RBI to play an unproven hitter like Rooker who is a worse fielder than Rosario?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I can't see Detroit trading Boyd within the division

 

Why? They aren't going to be good during that time frame. And, as the new GM of the Red Sox said, it is bad management not to consider it. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why trade Rosario who admittedly had a bad season in the field but knocked in 100+ RBI to play an unproven hitter like Rooker who is a worse fielder than Rosario?

 

To get pitching. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would scrounge around for a veteran OF to replace Eddie if he is traded. Someone looking for a bounce back year. No sense starting the clock early on top prospects

 

Rooker is 25. His clock is not relevant.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Rooker is 25. His clock is not relevant.

 

Correct. And it also likely means he isn't that great of a prospect either. Huge hole in his game somewhere. 25 year old corner outfielders that hit bombs but strikeout, can't play defense, aren't very valuable anyway.

[Twodogs]

I personally don't usually see teams that have won 101 game trade starters off that team and replace them with unproven Milb ballplayers and then get better? That usually does not happen, I mean we can use TB and the Archer trade, but they got studs back for him, not oil can Boyd. Anyways I really believe that Cole wants to go to the Angels, So-Cal etc... However, I am all in on offering him something crazy like 8/280, because if the Angels can't pony up then you have him! If they do pony up, then it makes it real difficult for them to be any sort of a player on anyone else during the off-season. I mean with giant contracts to Trout, Pujols, and if Cole signs and Ohtani etc... They might be stuck without much more flexibility in the rest of the market essentially erasing them out of the equation for the other free agents? So yeah offer Cole big money, but I wouldn't trade starters for middle of the road pitchers IMO.

[rdehring]

Trade Rosario as part of the right package for a pitcher who makes a difference, yes.  Trade him even up for Boyd, no.  Trade Larnach even up for Boyd, no.  Trade Duran even up for Boyd, yes.  Trade all three for Boyd, good way for guys in the Twins FO to be fired!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Trade Rosario as part of the right package for a pitcher who makes a difference, yes.  Trade him even up for Boyd, no.  Trade Larnach even up for Boyd, no.  Trade Duran even up for Boyd, yes.  Trade all three for Boyd, good way for guys in the Twins FO to be fired!

 

You would not trade Lanarch 1:1 for Boyd? I can't see how the Tigers take less than that.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Avisail Garcia would be a solid replacement for Rosario were Eddie traded.

 

And yes, part of the reason to be in on Cole and Strasburg is to make the winning teams pay more. If it isn't us.

[rdehring]

 

You would not trade Lanarch 1:1 for Boyd? I can't see how the Tigers take less than that.

No I wouldn't.  But I am one of those who doesn't particularly like Boyd all that much.  Don't see him as being much better than the foursome we saw pitching a lot last September.

[mikelink45]

In 12 month - Graterol will exceed Boyd by significant WAR.  Trading for Boyd is not a step forward. 

[railmarshalljon]

 

In 12 month - Graterol will exceed Boyd by significant WAR.  Trading for Boyd is not a step forward. 

 

As a starter or reliever?

[Mike Sixel]

 

In 12 month - Graterol will exceed Boyd by significant WAR.  Trading for Boyd is not a step forward. 

 

And the first 4 months of next season? And, the other two spots in the rotation besides Berrios and Odorizzi  (who is only signed for 1 more year) once Gaterol is up?