Article: MIN 5, CLE 4: Max Power Against Bauer

[Andrew Thares]

Max Kepler had himself quite the night, taking Indians All-Star pitcher Trevor Bauer deep three times in the Twins 5-4 win in Cleveland. Overall, Kepler finished the night going 4-for-4 with a walk, and out hitting the rest of the Twins team, who had just three hits, and equaling the number hits the Indians had on the night. After losing the first two games of the series, tonight felt like a big game for the Twins to keep the Indians from gaining any momentum as we head into the summer months. Sure an 8.5 game lead on the division is still pretty big, but 10.5 just feels so much bigger.Box Score

Berrios: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 69.2% strikes (74 of 107 pitches)

Home Runs: Kepler 3 (15)

Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (4 for 4, 3 HR, BB)

WPA of +0.1: Kepler .310; Berrios .229; Rogers .200

WPA of -0.1: Magill -.193

 

Download attachment: vs Indians 6-6-2019.PNG

(Chart via FanGraphs)

 

Kepler got the scoring going on the second pitch of the game when he ended his 0-for-21 streak with a solo shot. This was the third time this season that Kepler hit a first inning leadoff homerun for the Twins.

 

 

Kepler added to the scoring again in the top of the third when he took Trevor Bauer deep for the second time tonight. This time it was on a two-strike slider after Kepler did a good job spoiling a couple good two-strike pitches from Bauer.

 

 

The Twins struck again in the top of the fifth after Kepler leadoff the inning with a walk. Jorge Polanco then grounded into a fielder’s choice before Mitch Garver drove him in from first with an RBI double. In the seventh Kepler struck again for his third home run of the game, giving the Twins a 5-1 lead.

 

 

For his second straight start Jose Berrios had a good outing to get the Twins back on their winning ways after a tough loss. Berrios absolutely shut down the Indians lineup for six plus innings tonight, but made just one mistake to Roberto Perez in the fifth inning that he drove over the wall in the right-center field gap. Berrios had the changeup working especially well, picking up four of his six strikeouts with it. Despite being over a hundred pitches through six innings, Rocco Baldelli left Berrios in to start the seventh. He did a good job getting Jose Ramirez to roll over on a changeup, but Jonathan Schoop bobbled the ball and Ramirez reached, ending the night for Berrios.

 

Matt Magill came in to relieve Berrios, hoping to bounce back from his terrible outing on Sunday in Tampa. Unfortunately that wasn’t to be, as he walked Jordan Luplow on four pitches and gave up an RBI single to Tyler Naquin, causing Baldelli to go back to the pen to get Trevor May to get out of the jam. May came in doing his part, allowing just one run to score, on a sac-fly from Roberto Perez, before getting Leoyns Martin and Francisco Lindor to get out of the jam.

 

Taylor Rogers came in to start the eighth inning and picked up a two inning save. Rogers looked unhittable getting each of the first five guys he faced out, three of which were via the strikeout. However, he made things interesting after he gave up a two-out home run to Oscar Mercado. Rogers shut the door on the Twins win on the next batter getting Roberto Perez to groundout.

 

Postgame with Baldelli

 

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

 

Download attachment: 6-6-2019 vs Indians.PNG

 

Next Three Games

Fri at DET, 6:10 pm CT (TBD-Boyd)

Sat at DET, 3:10 pm CT (Gibson-TBD)

Sun at DET, 12:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Carpenter)

Last Game

CLE 9, MIN 7: Bullpen Crumbles on Night Kimbrel Signs With Cubs

 

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[Dman]

Max single handedly won that game for us. Where is the rest of the offense?. Big win now let's get the bats going against Detroit and keep things rolling.

[terrydactyls]

Yesterday was Thursday, June 6 and it was the 61st game of the year.  The Twins are now 38%  of the way through the season and have hit 117 home runs.  Out of 59 years, the current team ranks 39th on the all-time list of Twins' home runs in one season and are on a pace to hit 311 home runs this season.

[Monticore]

What a relief to eke out this win. Thought for sure they were gonna get swept.

[pab_wv]

A German launching bombs on D-Day smdh

[MNT1996]

Not going to be able to put Rodgers and May out there every game. Get BP help. 

[Aerodeliria]

How do you rank the bullpen members? I'm just curious, really.

 

There are a lot of things that go into the thinking about it ERA/WHIP/SO:BB ratio and feeling (some pitchers just make you more worried than others--a kind of foreboding).

 

1) Rodgers

2) May

3) Harper

4) Macgill

5) Duffey

6) Morin

7) Parker

[Mike Sixel]

I was wondering how close those three would be in WPA. I wonder what Max would have to do to be ahead by even more?

 

It's clear, to me, Berrios is a playoff pitcher. And Rogers. I still think Gibson is fine, now that he's recovered. I'd like one more good relief pitcher that everyone trusted.... Probably another starter

[walt-o-meal]

[BeantownTwinsFan]

What's the buzz on the starter vs. Detroit tonight?  Sending down Smeltzer most likely...Pineda back?

[IndianaTwin]

Der Schlagger and some Red Sox guy named Williams are the only two to have two three-homer games in Cleveland.

 

[Tomj14]

 

I was wondering how close those three would be in WPA. I wonder what Max would have to do to be ahead by even more?

It's clear, to me, Berrios is a playoff pitcher. And Rogers. I still think Gibson is fine, now that he's recovered. I'd like one more good relief pitcher that everyone trusted.... Probably another starter

QFT

[Tom Froemming]

I'm considering making some changes to these game recaps and would love some feedback if anybody's interested in helping out with some market research

 

-Do you enjoy the win expectancy charts?

I think they're cool, but for a lot of games they don't add a whole lot of flavor. I get the sense that most readers just gloss right over them the majority of the time, so I'm thinking about ditching them.

 

-Is there any important information we're missing?

I have some ideas for small, simple things to add, but I'm curious if any of you have any ideas. Is there something you're constantly having to look up elsewhere that could easily be included in these?

 

Thanks for reading everybody, and thanks to Andrew and all the new writers for joining in on the fun. 

 

Also, Happy Anniversary! Two years ago today, I did my first game recap here. It was ... different

[Han Joelo]

Tom, while  I don't spend a ton of time analyzing the charts, I've come to expect them, and always get a kick out of looking at them.  One of several unique "signature" items one just won't find anywhere else.

 

It was really telling the other day, reading one of the loss recaps on MLB.com before yours--it largely focused on the positives from Cleveland's perspective.  It was so nice to come here and get the whole story--the good, bad, and ugly.

[Blake]

 

I'm considering making some changes to these game recaps and would love some feedback if anybody's interested in helping out with some market research

 

-Do you enjoy the win expectancy charts?

I think they're cool, but for a lot of games they don't add a whole lot of flavor. I get the sense that most readers just gloss right over them the majority of the time, so I'm thinking about ditching them.

 

-Is there any important information we're missing?

I have some ideas for small, simple things to add, but I'm curious if any of you have any ideas. Is there something you're constantly having to look up elsewhere that could easily be included in these?

 

Thanks for reading everybody, and thanks to Andrew and all the new writers for joining in on the fun. 

Telling you what to do seems a lot like complaining about the food that someone else prepared.

 

As long as I'm not cooking, I'm good.

 

Keep up the great work!

[bighat]

 

How do you rank the bullpen members? I'm just curious, really.

 

There are a lot of things that go into the thinking about it ERA/WHIP/SO:BB ratio and feeling (some pitchers just make you more worried than others--a kind of foreboding).

 

1) Rodgers

2) May

3) Harper

4) Macgill

5) Duffey

6) Morin

7) Parker

 

I have May much lower. Parker higher. Parker had one rough game recently and May had one good game recently. Don't let a couple of outings from one night make you forget the rest of the games.And let's not forget that May has been used in low-leverage situations most of the month of May as well. Parker has 5 saves, May doesn't have any. Says something.

 

1. Rogers

2. Harper

3. Morin

4. Parker

5. May

6. Macgill

7. Duffey

 

 

[Han Joelo]

And to be clear, according to math, Kepler has room for even more power.  At least I think this is what that means.

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

I'm considering making some changes to these game recaps and would love some feedback if anybody's interested in helping out with some market research

 

-Do you enjoy the win expectancy charts?

I think they're cool, but for a lot of games they don't add a whole lot of flavor. I get the sense that most readers just gloss right over them the majority of the time, so I'm thinking about ditching them.

 

-Is there any important information we're missing?

I have some ideas for small, simple things to add, but I'm curious if any of you have any ideas. Is there something you're constantly having to look up elsewhere that could easily be included in these?

 

Thanks for reading everybody, and thanks to Andrew and all the new writers for joining in on the fun. 

I'm old school, and pay no attention to the win expectancy charts. IMO they don't tell me anything I wouldn't already intuitively sense from watching the game. I'm sure for many, however, these are useful and interesting.

 

Many people probably ignore them, but I love box scores, so please don't discard the link for that.

 

I also love the post game thoughts from Baldelli. I don't have access to that, living out of town.

 

And THANK YOU (and all the game recappers) for these. Really, really appreciated.

[wabene]

The bullpen usage charts are sliced bread!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I clicked into this article solely to see Kepler’s WPA last night.

[Puckett34]

 

 

And to be clear, according to math, Kepler has room for even more power.  At least I think this is what that means.

 

 

I was told there would be no math

[Puckett34]

 

How do you rank the bullpen members? I'm just curious, really.

 

There are a lot of things that go into the thinking about it ERA/WHIP/SO:BB ratio and feeling (some pitchers just make you more worried than others--a kind of foreboding).

 

1) Rodgers

2) May

3) Harper

4) Macgill

5) Duffey

6) Morin

7) Parker

1) Rogers

2) Harper

3a) May

3b) Parker

5) Magill

6) Morin

7) Duffey

[jorgenswest]

I appreciate that the team isn’t making line up decisions based on the box score stats of the previous few games. I think Molitor has Kepler on the bench for this one.

[USAFChief]

 

How do you rank the bullpen members? I'm just curious, really.

 

There are a lot of things that go into the thinking about it ERA/WHIP/SO:BB ratio and feeling (some pitchers just make you more worried than others--a kind of foreboding).

 

1) Rodgers

2) May

3) Harper

4) Macgill

5) Duffey

6) Morin

7) Parker

1) Rogers 

 

 

 

5) May

6) Parker

7) Ron Davis

7a) Everyday Eddie, 2019 version

8) Harper

9) Duffey

10) Magill

 

12) Morin

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

I was wondering how close those three would be in WPA. I wonder what Max would have to do to be ahead by even more?

It's a context-oriented stat. So I suppose the main way his WPA could have been boosted is if Berrios had a worse start. If those were all three go-ahead homers, for example, his WPA would have skyrocketed. 

 

One of the fun things about WPA is that at the end of the game, the grand total for the winning team is always 0.500 and the losing team -0.500. So the only way to have a crazy high WPA is if one of your teammates has an awful game. 

 

Taking a look back to Eddie Rosario's three-homer game on June 3 last year, his WPA was .547. Wow! His first homer gave the Twins a 1-0 lead, his second homer tied the game 4-4 in the bottom of the seventh and his final homer was a walk off. What a game. Both Ryan Pressly (-.418 WPA) and Addison Reed (-.134 WPA) blew saves in that game. Pressly, what a bum! HA

[Blake]

 

It's a context-oriented stat. So I suppose the main way his WPA could have been boosted is if Berrios had a worse start. If those were all three go-ahead homers, for example, his WPA would have skyrocketed. 

 

One of the fun things about WPA is that at the end of the game, the grand total for the winning team is always 0.500 and the losing team -0.500. So the only way to have a crazy high WPA is if one of your teammates has an awful game. 

 

Taking a look back to Eddie Rosario's three-homer game on June 3 last year, his WPA was .547. Wow! His first homer gave the Twins a 1-0 lead, his second homer tied the game 4-4 in the bottom of the seventh and his final homer was a walk off. What a game. Both Ryan Pressly (-.418 WPA) and Addison Reed (-.134 WPA) blew saves in that game. Pressly, what a bum! HA

I think Pressly is a classic example of the "change of scenery" scenario of baseball.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Chief- YOU WIN!

[jmlease1]

Still no 3-game losing streaks for this team! That's a pretty good stat.

 

May looks like he's rounding into form, which is good. Parker had a bad night in a goofy rain-delay game; the loss was a bummer, but I'm not too worried about him. Magill? Boy, I dunno. Never been a huge fan. FIP says he's been unlucky this year, but considering how much lower his HR/9 is compared to career averages, I think he's actually been lucky this year and his mediocre numbers could get a lot worse in a hurry. The K's are great, but the WHIP suggests he's a mop-up guy and that's not what we need. Would rather see more of Duffey than Magill.

 

Great night for Kepler. That's a slump-buster for sure. Hopefully he gets cranking on another run. The contract extension on Max is looking pretty smart right now too, hopefully he doesn't fade late, because this is starting to look like the break-out year we've been waiting for.

 

 

[Blake]

The look on Bauer's face after Max goes deep the third time is priceless.

[Number3]

 

Not going to be able to put Rodgers and May out there every game. Get BP help. 

Or not be afraid to let starters pitch more than a Little League game. Every game against a division team is a 2 game swing so this was huge. So far no losing streaks (2 doesn't count as a "streak"). Even HofF and possible HoF players for the Twins have had few if any games where they totally carried the team to a significant win. Do need to take 2 of 3 from Tigers before coming home. Kepler can take the night off tonight and let the other 8 do the job.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Number3