Harper To Phillies

[Twinsbar107]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/phillies-reportedly-agree-to-sign-bryce-harper.html

 

Apparently for $330 million for 13 years. Unsure on all the details such as opt outs.

[PseudoSABR]

I guess he valued total contract dollars over AAV.  I think he potentially gives up a lot money by not taking a shorter term deal.

[MMMordabito]

Now just need Kimbrel to go to the Twins or NL and good offseason.  I'd probably give the Yankees the #1 spot as far as AL teams that bettered themselves the most, but the Twins are probably #2.

 

Damn Yankees.

[gunnarthor]

Good for Harper.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I guess he valued total contract dollars over AAV. I think he potentially gives up a lot money by not taking a shorter term deal.

A lot, relative to $330 million?

[PseudoSABR]

 

A lot, relative to $330 million?

Well he's getting an AAV just over 25 million, with an AAV of say 33 million over the same time, he'd be receiving a 100 million more.  I think that's a lot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well he's getting an AAV just over 25 million, with an AAV of say 33 million over the same time, he'd be receiving a 100 million more. I think that's a lot.

But taking a short term deal at $33 mil AAV is far from a guarantee he'd eventually average $33 mil over the next 13 years.

 

This was probably his best chance to cash in, due to his age. It would be a big risk to punt that and hope he'd be healthy and coming off a big season when his short term deal would end.

[2wins87]

I'm looking forward to the articles that try to project his performance 13 years forward

[markos]

 

But taking a short term deal at $33 mil AAV is far from a guarantee he'd eventually average $33 mil over the next 13 years.

This was probably his best chance to cash in, due to his age. It would be a big risk to punt that and hope he'd be healthy and coming off a big season when his short term deal would end.

It will be interesting to see who ends up making more money over the remainder of their careers between Harper and Machado (with his 5yr opt out), and honestly Arenado as well. 

[zenser]

I read that he gets a no trade clause and no opt outs.

[ChrisKnutson]

Now’s our chance to sign one of Keuchel or Kimbrel with Philly out of the picture.

[wsnydes]

 

But taking a short term deal at $33 mil AAV is far from a guarantee he'd eventually average $33 mil over the next 13 years.

This was probably his best chance to cash in, due to his age. It would be a big risk to punt that and hope he'd be healthy and coming off a big season when his short term deal would end.

Agreed completely. The new CBA may play into that quite a bit too. This way he's got his regardless of what happens with that. Obviously the flip side of that is also true, but I'd say that he's minimized his risk very well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It will be interesting to see who ends up making more money over the remainder of their careers between Harper and Machado (with his 5yr opt out), and honestly Arenado as well.

It's a bit apples and oranges, though. Harper is already a RF, and perhaps not a good one if 2018 metrics are to be believed. He'd be less likely to get another big money deal around age 31 than Machado or Arenado.

[PseudoSABR]

 

But taking a short term deal at $33 mil AAV is far from a guarantee he'd eventually average $33 mil over the next 13 years.

This was probably his best chance to cash in, due to his age. It would be a big risk to punt that and hope he'd be healthy and coming off a big season when his short term deal would end.

I understand the tradeoff, just noting he got far less AAV than I anticipated.

[Loosey]

I wonder if this will be heavily front loaded?  Maybe first 8 years at something like $32M and final 5 years at like $15M?  I know it's all guaranteed, but in 10+ years $32M vs. $15M is a lot.

 

Would probably make sense for both sides to do it that way.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Now’s our chance to sign one of Keuchel or Kimbrel with Philly out of the picture.

I wanted these guys all off season. But now I'm not so sure, ST is almost half over. Without ST it could be Lynn and Morrison Part 2.

[ewen21]

 

I guess he valued total contract dollars over AAV.  I think he potentially gives up a lot money by not taking a shorter term deal.

Comments like these really make me scratch my head.  He got a third of a BILLION DOLLARS in GUARANTEED MONEY.

 

What are we really talking about here?

[gunnarthor]

I wonder if the Phillies are expecting the NL to adopt the DH within the next decade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Now’s our chance to sign one of Keuchel or Kimbrel with Philly out of the picture.

Is Philly really out of the picture? They're still $18 mil under the luxury tax threshold, and I think they can go over that a bit without any draft/international penalties (only paying a tax).

 

Edit to add: looks like Philly could spend quite a bit more, if they wanted.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

 

 

 

A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

 

[ChrisKnutson]

I wanted these guys all off season. But now I'm not so sure, ST is almost half over. Without ST it could be Lynn and Morrison Part 2.

I understand your concern, but unlike Lynn and Morrison last year, both Keuchel and Kimbrel are coming off postseason runs with significant usage sooo it’s very possible that the layoff could prove to be beneficial for the two. When it comes to the ‘bitterness towards the market’ that both Lynn and Morrison expressed last year, I really don’t see the same situation with Keuchel and Kimbrel since both are established upper echelon players that should get a significant amount of money no matter what. Unless they really are “forced” to sign a 1 year deal, I don’t see a repeat of 2018.

[ChrisKnutson]

Is Philly really out of the picture? They're still $18 mil under the luxury tax threshold, and I think they can go over that a bit without any draft/international penalties (only paying a tax).

 

Edit to add: looks like Philly could spend quite a bit more, if they wanted.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

They very well could, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I mean, who knows how much Trout is gonna ask for...

[jkcarew]

Must have really wanted that headline to best the $300 number Machado got. (Or, more likely, the $325 that Stanton got.) Those extra three years aren't great...relatively speaking (assuming the no opt out is fact). He'll be getting $22 million in years 11, 12, and 13 of the contract. Discounting over 11 years...(just at a reasonable rate of inflation, while salaries could continue to grow faster than that)...that $22 million would be in the neighborhood of what Nelson Cruz got this year from the Twins. Meanwhile, at year 11, Harper would be two years younger than Cruz is today. Harper could sit out two years with an injury, turn in to a DH only...and still conceivably sign for more than $22 million in 2029. Not that it's every bad or wrong to go for the guarantee. But, I'm slightly surprised...this is more favorable for the team than I anticipated.

[djvang]

So does this end the threat of a strike? Darn cheap colluding owners.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I just do not trust contracts like these, huge money over a long period of time. I actually think Machado's could be an exception that proves the rule and works out well, but I am absolutely convinced Harper's contract will look just terrible in 5 years.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Comments like these really make me scratch my head.  He got a third of a BILLION DOLLARS in GUARANTEED MONEY.

 

What are we really talking about here?

And comments in all caps really make me cringe.  Obviously he was paid an enormous amount of money.  But no one predicted his AAV would be as low as 25 million. 

[Riverbrian]

Is Philly really out of the picture? They're still $18 mil under the luxury tax threshold, and I think they can go over that a bit without any draft/international penalties (only paying a tax).

 

Edit to add: looks like Philly could spend quite a bit more, if they wanted.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

Agreed. I'd think this puts them more in the picture. If you make this type of investment you might as well finish the job.

 

And I'd also imagine that The entire NL East minus the Marlins just upped their interest in Kuechel and Kimbrel. GM's can be reactionary from time to time. Not ours but other GM's Of course.

[Mike Sixel]

So does this end the threat of a strike? Darn cheap colluding owners.

Because three great players got deals? Not even close.

[ewen21]

Mike are you Donald Fehr?

[darin617]

Still puzzled how Bryce Harper deserves this type of contract. Take away his 2015 MVP season and what do have?  Just take a moment to look up his career stats and tell me how he deserved a deal like that.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml

[dbminn]

 

Now’s our chance to sign one of Keuchel or Kimbrel with Philly out of the picture.

 

Jim Bowden tweeted that the Twins are in touch with Kimbrel's agent. Take it with a shaker of salt at this point: