Article: Rundown: On Trading Kepler, DRC+, LeMahieu and More

[Tom Froemming]

Dan Hayes of The Athletic wondered if the Twins might trade Max Kepler to address some other areas of need. It’s a good piece, as Dan hashes out all the reasons to believe the best is yet to come for Max, but he also writes that the Twins would find the possible returns enticing. There is Aaron Hicks-like disaster potential for the Twins in any deal that sends Kepler away, but might it be worth it?The cold, hard reality is Kepler has posted below average offensive numbers the past three seasons. How long until you just accept that’s who he is? That’s an excellent question. Sorry, I don’t have an answer for it.

 

When you look at all the under the surface numbers, it doesn’t make any sense why Max has failed to post better overall numbers. He hits the ball hard, posting an 89.5 mph average exit velocity, that's in the top 30 percent in the league, but his BABIP was .236, third-worst among qualified hitters.

 

He’s got breakout written all over him in big, bold letters. Add in the excellent defense he provides, that’s not a player I’m especially motivated to move.

 

One thing to consider in potentially sending Kepler away, however, is that there are plenty of intriguing outfield replacement options available on the open market. The Twins also already have guys like Jake Cave, Zack Granite, Michael Reed and LaMonte Wade on the 40-man roster, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alex Kirilloff is pounding at the door by the second half of this upcoming season.

 

I offered up a potential Kepler trade in my offseason blueprint, which had the Twins changing course and focusing more on a rebuilding effort. I wrote that back before Halloween, and while I still believe that strategy may make sense for this Twins team, the talk of Cleveland potentially selling off more pieces has definitely swayed my preference toward the Twins giving themselves a real chance to win the division in 2019.

 

Baseball Prospectus rolled out a new hitting metric: DRC+, or Deserved Runs Created. Jonathan Judge wrote both an introduction to the stat and a case that it’s more accurate than other advanced metrics like wOBA, wRC+ and OPS+. Among the things it does a better job of is park adjustments and factoring in quality of opponent. He also whipped together a nice video explaining how it works:

 

 

Swinging back to Kepler, he had a 111 DRC+ last season, which was only two points shy of Eddie Rosario and three points less than Eduardo Escobar. Meanwhile, Kepler only had a .727 OPS, Rosie was at .803 and Escobar posted an .824 OPS on the year. BP has also already factored DRC+ into their WARP calculation. Rosario now comes in at 3.8 WARP and Kepler is right on his heels at 3.6 WARP and Escobar had a 2.9 WARP.

 

In an article for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal noted that one of the biggest beneficiaries of DRC+ is free agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu now has a 4.8 WARP from 2018 per B-Pro, that’s the 18th-best in all of baseball.

 

His home/road splits have been extreme over his career, but in 2018 he actually hit the ball harder on the road than he did at Coors Field. His 90.8 mph average exit velocity was inside the top 10 percent in all of baseball, just behind Mike Trout, but he averaged slightly better (91.1 mph) on the road.

 

Rhett Bolinger of MLB.com ran through some of the closer options for the Twins. Among the seven options he highlighted, I think Joakim Soria is the guy who aligns with the Twins in terms of need and expected contract. He’s 34, so it’s not like you’ll need to give him a long-term contract, but he does have 220 career saves. Last season he had a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 (4.69 K:BB ratio) for the White Sox and Brewers. MLB Trade Rumors projected he’d get a two-year, $18 million deal.

 

The market is starting to move. Patrick Corbin signed with the Nationals, Nathan Eovaldi is returning to Boston and Paul Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals. That could make things a little more interesting at the upcoming Baseball Winter Meetings, though as Craig Calcaterra noted over at Hardball Talk, things just aren’t what they used to be.

 

Jayson Stark wrote a well-researched piece about the shift over at The Athletic. He also reported that support for banning the shift is picking up steam. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs provided some more items to consider in a piece titled Banning the Shift Is a Solution in Search of a Problem. If any rule changes were to be implemented for the 2019 season, they would more than likely be agreed upon at the Winter Meetings.

 

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[Strato Guy]

I am not in favor of trading Kepler at this point. Sure the Twins have holes to fill, but trading Kepler would create another one. The outfield has too many question marks. Buxton is not reliable with a combination of being ineffective or hurt. Cave looks adequate, but his track record of success is too short to count on him. Other options presently on the roster do not look to be a better alternative. In a year or slightly longer, room will be needed for Kirilloff, but we are not to that point yet. I have a hunch, Kepler will improve, so trading him now could be a mistake. In a year his trade value will be higher, IMO. Of course I could be wrong about that.

[TNTwinsFan]

Boom. As I've been advocating for...sign Lemahieu. Also, I would absolutely keep Kepler through his Arb years. Concentrate on the Bullpen this off season (after signing the above mentioned.) With Cleveland's sell off, the iron is starting to get hot enough to strike now. That's not to say the Twins are just a Bullpen away from making an extended run in the Playoffs in 2019, but, there's a growing chance they can win the Division in 2019. So maybe they're a Bullpen away from winning the Division? Turn 50% of those walk-off losses in 2018 into wins and they have a winning record in spite of poor years from Sano, Buxton, etc. Sign Lemahieu. Sign some legitimate Bullpen arms and make a real go at winning the Central now!

[IndianaTwin]

"Rhett Bolinger of MLB.com ran through some of the closer options for the Twins. Among the seven options he highlighted, I think Joakim Soria is the guy who aligns with the Twins in terms of need and expected contract. He’s 34, so it’s not like you’ll need to give him a long-term contract, but he does have 220 career saves. Last season he had a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 (4.69 K:BB ratio) for the White Sox and Brewers. MLB Trade Rumors projected he’d get a two-year, $18 million deal."

 

Soria at 2/$18MM and David Robertson for 3/$33MM would be awesome in my book. 

 

 

 

[Buddy Holly]

Trading Kepler at this point will not net a big return unless you want to wait years for that return. That being said, the twins hitting coaches should have been replaced this off season. Kepler and several other players regressed. Buxton needs to prove himself before you move his backup. Cave is not good in Center, he has problems with low line drive balls, they eat him up. Cave may be an option for lefthanded 1st baseman. The Twins are not going to win the Central without Pitching. Seattle wants to unload salary. How about Gordon for Gordon. 

[Vanimal46]

I'm all for trading Kepler and other prospects for top end pitching. There's plenty of corner OFs available in FA right now that can match or beat Kepler's WAR value.

[ND-Fan]

Trading Kepler will be big mistake in my mind because I think he's on verge of becoming a superstar. The numbers say he had underperformed but I think like what was written above if he continues hit ball hard that his numbers are going to improve dramatically. Second he did improve last year he showed he could hit left hand pitching. I think he just got few little things to clean up hitting and also get to better pitch recognition to what he's going to hit at his at bats. Defensively he is ideal player he plays above average center field if needed, very good right field defender and has proven he could also play first base if needed. These are what teams are looking for players that have flexibility and can hit both for power and hits, and has speed to run the bases. He still is 25 years old which means were going to trade a player that is just coming into his prime again for some future prospects time has come for the Twins to decide to keep some of their quality players and start building around them. Yes there are risks in keeping developing players but we sure have proven in past few years going out on free agent market it hard to find quality players unless your willing to pay premium price to acquire them. This Front office better start making some investment in the future because to keep waiting for prospects to develop and arrive all at same time may never come. It requires signing your quality players to longer term deals and continue to add with from your prospects to build a winner. 

[Jacksson]

Having missed out on Patrick Corbin,

The Twins are reaching out to

Contact former Twin pitcher, Ray Corbin

and get him signed for 2019.

[rdehring]

Count me among those of you who do not want to trade Kepler.  Would I, yes.  But to pry him away I would want a top return, a return that includes one very good young player who will fill one of the needs for the Twins in 2019.

 

I have always expected that it would take a bit longer because of his background coming out of Germany.  I still believe that he has the ability to be one of the best, if not the best, of this young group...Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Polanco and Sano.  I expect him to take another step forward this year and can be a critical part of the 2019 Central Division championship Twins.

[blindeke]

Go get DJ.

[gunnarthor]

I'd listen on Kepler but there's another scenario that might work out even better. Kepler stays and his babip regresses to the norm. He posts a .274/.369/.458 127 OPS+ line (that's the same iso walk/slg with a .50 pt avg improvement) and Kiriloff dominates high minors pitching. Now Kepler is a much better trade piece.

[LimestoneBaggy]

Tom, I don't know why, but I have an irrational love of Max Kepler....maybe it's Hicks and Gomez memories, but I just can't bring myself to trade a good glove, potential plus hitting outfielder (who could play some first too)..... guess I'll need to see more of Kirilloff to push me one way or the other ....

[Thrylos]

Kepler has already 3 full seasons in the majors and the only two things that improved are his K% and his defense.  wOBA, wRC+, BB%, isoP have been practically static (and league averagish.)  Base running has actually declined.  He looks like he has pretty much peaked.

 

And he is just yet another one in the collection of lefty hitting and lefty throwing Twins' OF.

 

If you can trade a league average OF with prospects for a top of the rotation pitcher, you got to do it in a heartbeat.

[Number3]

All I know is that any player who is concerned with his DRC+ in the least is doomed to failure. The best players are still the ones with the best "old school" stats. Kepler is exactly the player you see when you watch any Twins game and there is no reason to expect him to improve very much. He will never be a star but should have a long career in the major leagues and certainly not all with the Twins.

[mudcat14]

Personally, I give Kepler one more shot to break out.  I realize another status quo season for him also diminishes any value he may have in trade.  I just hate to give up on his obvious physical potential.  My hope is that he, along with a few others on the roster will finally get the information or instruction and exhibit the patience and discipline to start maximizing every at bat.  In Kepler's case, I think it's clear that the swing is there.  Like so many of our young Twins, I think his biggest problem is simply swinging at the wrong pitches leading to unfavorable hitting counts. 

[jmlease1]

I'm baffled by the over-love for Cave. He's a useful piece and we got him for a lottery ticket pitcher, but he profiles like a 4th OF. Yes, he hit well this season, but dude had a .363 BABIP. Do we really think he's going to be hitting balls hard enough consistently enough to sustain that? he's got a grand total of 300 PAs in the majors; are we sure he is who we think/hope he is?

 

It's very possible Kepler never hits enough to be a great corner OF. Maybe his best position is CF, or maybe he's a 4th OF who is ok at the plate, great defensively, and can play all three spots. But it's hard to see Cave as being the answer with any confidence.

 

(maybe Kiriloff is in another year)

[cmoss84]

If Kepler and Cave received the same # of ABs this year, (A) who hits more HRs, and ( who plays better defense? Just food for thought...

[Vanimal46]

I'm baffled by the over-love for Cave. He's a useful piece and we got him for a lottery ticket pitcher, but he profiles like a 4th OF. Yes, he hit well this season, but dude had a .363 BABIP. Do we really think he's going to be hitting balls hard enough consistently enough to sustain that? he's got a grand total of 300 PAs in the majors; are we sure he is who we think/hope he is?

 

It's very possible Kepler never hits enough to be a great corner OF. Maybe his best position is CF, or maybe he's a 4th OF who is ok at the plate, great defensively, and can play all three spots. But it's hard to see Cave as being the answer with any confidence.

 

(maybe Kiriloff is in another year)

The funny thing is I'm baffled why the over-love for Kepler. People have to dig deep into the analytics to find positive things about his offense. The stats on the back of his baseball card haven't changed in nearly 3 full seasons. I'll take the guy who can find holes and get hits on balls in play instead of Kepler's lazy fly balls.

[Sssuperdave]

I hope I'm not derailing the conversation too much, but I'd like to share some random thoughts on some of the sabermetrics.

 

I love Sabermetrics, but I've got one problem with the varying WAR stats, specifically the differences between bWAR, fWAR, and WARP.  It doesn't bother me that the numbers themselves are different between the three, but when I look at the calculations it bothers me that the three seem to take very different fundamental approaches to the concept of Wins Above Replacement.

 

When I think of WAR, I typically think of it as a "what actually happened" stat, as opposed to a stat that's intended to be predictive of future success.  Take ERA vs FIP and xFIP.  ERA is what actually happened, where FIP and especially xFIP are typically more predictive than ERA.  I always think of WAR as more like ERA than xFIP.  However, the three WARs all approach this differently.  To me they seem to be on a progession from bWAR to fWAR to WARP going from most "what actually happened" to most predictive.  A stat like DRC+ sounds really cool and really predictive, but I don't feel like it should be included in a WAR calculation.  I guess what I'd really like is two stats: WAR and XWAR, where WAR would use more "what actually happened" stats, and XWAR would use more predictive stats.

 

Kepler having WARP of 3.6, and being only 0.2 behind Rosario is preposterous if WARP is supposed to be a representation of what actually happened, but if it's meant to a predictive or expected measure, then it makes  a lot more sense, and it's incumbent on the talent evaluators to decide whether there is something about Kepler that makes him consistently underperform expected stats.  Take Ricky Nolasco - if I recall correctly he very consistently underperforms his xFIP.  Kepler seems to have really low BABIPs despite his LD%'s.  Is there something about him that keeps his BABIP in the toilet, or is he going to break out?

[jud6312]

If Kirilloff was banging on the door this spring, I'd be more open to trading Kepler, who I still think is on the verge of big things.

 

But if his replacement comes from the pool of Cave, Wade, Granite, and Reed, then count me out.

 

As it stands now, if Buxton flames out again, you've got Rosario, Cave, and Kepler, which isn't ideal, but you could get by with it.

 

But if you trade Kepler, are you really ready to roll with Rosario, Cave, and Granite?

 

What if Cave turns back into a pumpkin? Rosario, Granite, Wade? Can you trust Granite after a bad/wasted year? Can you trust Wade to make the jump and produce? Do you trust that Michael Reed is anything more than a AAAA player?

 

Unless there's a better backup plan than any of those four, or the return in a Kepler trade is too good to pass down, I'm passing. 

[Vanimal46]

If Kirilloff was banging on the door this spring, I'd be more open to trading Kepler, who I still think is on the verge of big things.

 

But if his replacement comes from the pool of Cave, Wade, Granite, and Reed, then count me out.

 

As it stands now, if Buxton flames out again, you've got Rosario, Cave, and Kepler, which isn't ideal, but you could get by with it.

 

But if you trade Kepler, are you really ready to roll with Rosario, Cave, and Granite?

 

What if Cave turns back into a pumpkin? Rosario, Granite, Wade? Can you trust Granite after a bad/wasted year? Can you trust Wade to make the jump and produce? Do you trust that Michael Reed is anything more than a AAAA player?

 

Unless there's a better backup plan than any of those four, or the return in a Kepler trade is too good to pass down, I'm passing.

It's totally legal in the rule book to sign another OF if Kepler is traded.

[Dr. Evil]

Trade Kepler. Sign McCutcheon. Kepler, I'm not bullish on a breakout.

[Mr. Brooks]

There are two posters in here saying that Kepler is easily replaceable, and suggest trading him for a front of the rotation pitcher.

Why on earth would a team trade us front line pitching, the second hardest position to fill in all of sports, for such an easily replaceable player??

[Rosterman]

You also forget that Rooker may be in the mix.

 

The Twins could possibly trade Rosario and get more. We see what Eddie can do. He might keep doing it. But is he elite?

 

Kepler is someone a team would take a flyer on (similar the Yankees with Hocks - who still isn't the 4-tool superstar we all thought he might be when drafted). 

 

The bigger question is do we double-down and sign him longer term and hope he hits for a bit higher average with the same home runs and defense skills, as well as maybe play a bit of first, or let it be someone else's problem and be amd about the return.

 

 

[jud6312]

 

It's totally legal in the rule book to sign another OF if Kepler is traded.

Having the ability to do so and actually doing so are two different things.

[Vanimal46]

There are two posters in here saying that Kepler is easily replaceable, and suggest trading him for a front of the rotation pitcher.

Why on earth would a team trade us front line pitching, the second hardest position to fill in all of sports, for such an easily replaceable player??

Teams have different needs. Kepler provides good defensive value and below average offense, who can play CF in a pinch. He's under control for 3 more seasons. He's coming off a career high WAR year, but since he's been a starter, averages 2-3 WAR a season. Overall, a solid player... We're not talking about a player with little value, and teams can use that skillset.

 

When it comes to the Twins, I believe Buxton will be given every opportunity to start and live up to his potential. His value also comes from great defense, and below average offense. IMO Buxton is going to saturate his teammates' defensive value no matter who it is. He covers a ton of grass out there, making the opportunities for Kepler to also generate a bunch of value defensively scarce. I'm not buying in on Kepler matching his 10 DRS or 10.8 UZR with Buxton out there. That's where his value comes from unless he puts it all together at the plate.

 

The Twins are better off finding a corner OF where his value is driven from offensive performance, instead of defense. There are players in FA currently that matched or even beat Kepler's WAR production last season, primarily with the bat.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Doctor Wu]

Count me as one of those who don't think Kepler has reached his potential yet. And with that in mind, I don't think what we'd get for him in a trade would be nearly enough to satisfy the team or the fans. Imagine another Aaron Hicks type trade. Ugh ...  no thanks. Let's keep him for now.

[Vanimal46]

Count me as one of those who don't think Kepler has reached his potential yet. And with that in mind, I don't think what we'd get for him in a trade would be nearly enough to satisfy the team or the fans. Imagine another Aaron Hicks type trade. Ugh ... no thanks. Let's keep him for now.

The person that made the Hicks trade isn't here anymore. Don't you think Falvine makes better trades than the past regime so far?

[MN_ExPat]

Too me the funniest part of much of this discussion is our (and I say our, because I include myself in this) reactions when we feel that a player we really like or love to follow is disparaged.

 

We become invested these guys and young men.   Speaking for myself, I've felt this way since I was a little kid watching the games or listening on the radio, and then snagging the sports section the next day to pour over the baseball section and listed stat sheets and box scores.   At one point I could tell you the active roster and the main stats for every team in the majors (stat geek!)   Heck, I still do that today... although it's a lot more high tech and in real time , annnnd perhaps a little less obsessive about the numbers.

 

So... at least for me, I get the "over love" for certain players.   It's in our baseball DNA since we were kids.   These were our heroes, our idols and while most of us really don't use those words to describe them anymore (at least not in public ), the emotional response lingers.

 

I'll   eventually get to a point... maybe.

 

Kepler for example.   I personally think he's a fantastic athlete, and has the mental makeup and physical tools to be an exceptional baseball player.   Will he ever fully realize that potential???   I honestly don't know, and in many ways (IMHO) it isn't really that important.   Baseball, like life, isn't about the destination.   It's about the journey, the steps and stops you take along the way.

 

So, if Kepler (or Cave, or any of the others don't meet great success, are "league average" or just "meh"), I'll be disappointed but ultimately ok with it.   There will be other players who come along and other players to root for.

 

We should all relax some, and enjoy the journey.

 

Merry Christmas everyone !   

[mike8791]

And that's the problem, Vanimal.  This new FO seems totally adverse to trades.  Other than the Odorizzi transaction, in which the Rays were clearly in a dumping mode, this FO has shown no imagination or risk taking to engage in meaningful trades - IN TWO FULL YEARS!  Why is that?

 

This offseason would be a good time to change this pattern, given the improvement in the Minor League system, together with a dearth of FA building blocks in the Twins price range(that's a whole other column, btw).  To date, the FO this offseason has followed a pattern of picking up DFA players on one year contracts in the hopes they rebound to previous heights.  Not a bad strategy if you have some bona fide lineup studs to build around.  That not being the case, the Twins are obviously counting on rebounds from their tattered core plus these new one year signees.  Isn't this like drawing to an inside straight?  What it isn't, is a recipe for moving into playoff contention.

 

Granted, the offseason isn't over.  I fully expect the Twins to add a couple of bullpen options and maybe an OF/DH type and/or a #4 or #5 rotation filler, but will any of this really move the needle in 2019?  Very, very doubtful and with the division seemingl;y more competitive, together with the Twins' payroll space and quantity of tradable minor leaguers, this conservatism on the part of Falvine is truly inexplicable.

 

It sure would be nice to see some transparency by ownership and Falvey what their long range plan is here because so far it seems they have none - other than muddling thru.