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About Sssuperdave

  • Birthday 06/21/1980

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  1. I once chipped a tooth eating at a restaurant, not sure what the food was. It wasn't the food I chipped my tooth on though, it was the fork - I somehow had the fork tilted in an awkward way in my mouth and chomped down on it.
  2. Soapbox time... I like to divide stats into "predictive" stats and "descriptive" stats. Descriptive stats tell the story of what happened... RBI is a great example. It's pretty clear what an RBI represents, and the stat itself tells a bit of a story. If someone has 6 RBI in one game, they may or may not have been in the right place at the right time, but six of their teammates scored as part of their at-bats, and I hope I was watching! Descriptive stats may or may not be predictive of future performance. RBI is not all that predictive, although it also depends what you are trying to predict. I guess "valuable" is a descriptor I should apply as well. RBI may do an ok job of predicting the next year's RBI, but they are so situation dependent that they don't necessarily say all that much about a players future value. OPS, wOBA, xFIP for pitchers...those are more predictive stats, especially when the sample size is large enough. In that paradigm, WAR has always been a bit of an enigma for me, and I think using this paradigm is helpful for thinking about how the different sites calculate it. It is a counting stat, and most counting stats are more descriptive than predictive. However, fangraphs in particular makes lots of adjustments to WAR that make it more predictive. Baseball References WAR is more descriptive. Personally, I prefer to have WAR be descriptive, so for me controlling for aberrant elements is indeed a bug. I do wish bWAR and fWAR weren't both called "WAR"... I wish they were completely separate statistics, one descriptive and one predictive.
  3. I'm sure there are a bunch of reasons why the powers that be aren't doing what I'm about to suggest, but it sure seems like there would be a good market for individual channels. My family already has Netflix and Disney+, and the only other thing I want to watch is Twins games. I was thinking to myself "how much would I be willing to pay to watch Twins games?", and I settled on $20/month. I'm not willing to pay $55, so I won't be getting any of the packages mentioned in this thread... so I'm a net loss for the providers. I would think this doesn't just go for FSN. I bet there are people willing to pay $20 for individual channels like the Food Network, ESPN, History, etc., but not willing to pay $55 for a package. Maybe not though... maybe I'm part of a pretty unique group.
  4. I think having one's statue removed is a fair consequence for making drunken, racist comments. How many statues are there outside of Target Field? Maybe 6? It's not that hard to find six people who made enormous contributions to the Twins who were able to avoid making drunken, racist comments.
  5. This is not true. The flu has a death rate of 0.1%, and Covid-19 has a death rate of between 2% and 3%, that's 20 to 30 times the flu. Right now in the US the Covid-19 mortality rate is 2.84%, compared to 3.63% worldwide. You can find these stats at https://coronavirus.thebaselab.com/ Here's a helpful article with more stats and comparisons between Covid-19 and the flu: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
  6. Several thoughts on this: Bonilla is still being paid $1.2M per year by the Mets, but that is not included in the dead money above (rightfully in my opinion). The Mets total is $9M, which is entirely David Wright. Those details are included in the article linked in the original post.Bonilla's amount is deferred compensation, which I do not think should be included as dead money, because deferred compensation is determined in advance and can be directly planned for.Again, in my opinion, dead money is not something that should be avoided at all costs. Once signed, player contracts are sunk costs, and management should do all they can to not include future amounts owed as a factor when determining roster composition.
  7. Wow, I don't actually get to watch very many games so I hadn't seen any of the three Polanco plays shared in that article. Those were brutal.
  8. I've never like Trevor Bauer but I have to admit that I agree with pretty much everything he said, especially how MLB makes their content too hard to access, that the rule changes are kind of dumb, and that he cleat policy is dumb. The only area where I disagree with Trevor is on the game length. I think length of game is a real problem the league needs to keep working to address. I agree with him that there are other, bigger reasons MLB isn't connecting with younger fans, lack of social media engagement being a big one. I guess I'd say shortening the games is a necessary but not sufficient step towards winning back fans. Trevor seems to be saying it's not even necessary.
  9. Color me surprised. When was the last time the Twins went all the way to a hearing? I vaguely remember a story about Torri Hunter signing a contract literally outside the courtroom door. Maybe Garza? Or Perkins? Doesn't look good for Berrios staying with the Twins past the arbitration years.
  10. I haven't been following the Dodgers or Maeda, but looking at his games logs for the pat couple of years shows usage that initially strikes me as strange. In each of 2018 and 2019 I didn't see any injuries, and he had a regular starters workload through July, and then sometime in August was moved to the bullpen. It looks a little sketchy, like the Dodgers were purposely avoiding giving him starts and innings. Can anyone that follows the NL more closely contradict this? I'm all for incentive laden deals, but this level of incentives, and structured this way, strikes me as problematic. $6.5M in incentives is tied up in number of starts. What if team uses an opener in all of Maeda's games? A totally valid managerial strategy would become a scandal.
  11. So, I'm sure I'll be in the minority here, but these videos make me more concerned than excited. I can understand altercations over HBP, because that can cause injury, but only one of these involves an HBP. The ones with Kela and Perkins in particular are over nothing but words. I'm sure Kela and Perkins bear some responsibility, but the common denominator here is Donaldson. You don't see other players losing their cool over nothing but words over and over again. Where most of you see competitive fire and passion, I see behavior that is thin-skinned and immature. When I combine these videos with the fact that this is already Donaldson's fifth team, it causes concern for me. I hear so much about chemistry and clubhouse leadership... is Donaldson going to be a positive influence or a negative one?
  12. I think Buxton should be in consideration for leadoff. I know there is some speculation that he is most comfortable lower in the lineup, but if he can keep his OPS over .800 like it was in 2019 then it would be great to see his speed leading off. He's not an OBP guy but if he starts to live up to his potential then you'd have great speed and slugging at the top of the lineup. Buxton ( R ) Polanco ( S ) Donaldson ( R ) Cruz ( R ) Kepler ( L ) Sano ( R ) Rosario ( L ) Garver ( R ) Arraez ( L )
  13. I'd pass on all of these free agents. The Twins have plenty of internal options that are cheaper and possibly better than almost all of the arms on this list. Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Poppen, Duran, and Alcala are all on the 40 man, and you've got Griffin Jax and Adam Bray in Rochester that I'd rather add to the 40 man than any of these free agents. I mean, I'm not hoping for significant innings from guys like Poppen, Duran, Jax, etc., but they are cheaper and more interesting plans B and C than any of these free agents, except maybe Walker. If they are going to add pitching, which I still think they should, they should aim higher via trade.
  14. Twinkie Town says it's 1 year, $2.75 Million. A solid but uninspiring move. He improves the bullpen.
  15. I think there's a good chance Odo and the Twins work out a multi-year deal. Giving him the QO makes the Twins the only team that can sign him without losing a draft pick, so they should be willing to give him just a little bit more than other teams.
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