Article: What Holes Still Must Be Filled?

[Nick Nelson]

Terry Ryan came away from last week's Winter Meetings without any significant roster additions, but the general manager made it clear that progress was made on various fronts, and that he expects to complete at least one move within the coming weeks.

 

To get an idea of what he and the front office need to get done in the remaining two months of the offseason, let's take a look at how a 2016 club might come together if the present configuration were to go unchanged.

 

Where can the Twins reasonably rely on internal options to fill holes? Where do they absolutely need outside help?CATCHER

 

Starter: Kurt Suzuki

Backup: John Ryan Murphy

Depth: John Hicks, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver

 

It looks like this is the group they'll head into the season with. This might not be the emphatic upgrade fans were hoping for after the catcher position emerged as a major problem spot in 2015, but the Twins are banking on Suzuki returning closer to his (albeit mediocre) career norm while the 24-year-old Murphy builds on his impressive .277/.327/.406 line from this year with the Yankees.

 

INFIELD

 

1B: Joe Mauer

2B: Brian Dozier

SS: Eduardo Escobar

3B: Trevor Plouffe

Backups: Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana

Depth: Jorge Polanco, James Beresford

 

Ryan keeps insisting that he's not shopping Plouffe, and there haven't been many rumors popping up surrounding the third baseman's market, so at this point we're operating under the assumption that he's going to be here. Nunez and Santana are actually a pretty nice backup duo, with each offering the versatility to play multiple infield and outfield positions while bringing some speed and offensive upside. Though Plouffe's status remains up in the air, Minnesota certainly doesn't need to make any further additions in the infield.

 

OUTFIELD

 

LF: Miguel Sano

CF: Eddie Rosario

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

Backups: ?

Depth: Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Adam Walker, Daniel Palka

 

As I see it, the plan is for Buxton to start in Triple-A, but the Twins will give him a chance to win the center field job with a convincing demonstration in spring training. Ryan has said that he views Sano as a better fit in right field, but Molitor prefers him in left and it's his call so that's what we'll go with for now. Whichever way you situate them, Sano and Arcia in the outfield corners has the potential to be a disaster, and it's a little surprising that the Twins would move forward with such an arrangement after seeing first-hand the benefits of a stellar defensive outfield (i.e. Rosario-Buxton-Hicks). Obviously Arcia is a question mark in every regard.

 

Between all of the players listed above (each of whom is 24 or younger, by the way), I'd be fairly confident that the Twins can find a respectable starting trio, but the need for another veteran addition is obvious. Such a player would add experience to a group lacking it, and would lessen the pressure to push an unprepared kid into a starting role if neither Arcia, Buxton, nor Kepler proves ready in camp. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Rajai Davis, who strikes me as a perfect fit.

 

DESIGNATED HITTER

 

Starter: Byung Ho Park

Depth: Kennys Vargas, Oswaldo Arcia, Adam Walker

 

The wild card. Park will undoubtedly have the job out of the gates, and if he stumbles or gets hurt the Twins have some other bats on hand that could be plugged in. (In addition to the names mentioned, Sano could obviously be moved back to DH, although that's not an ideal option.)

 

STARTERS

 

Rotation: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco

Depth: Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Jose Berrios, Pat Dean

 

That starting five isn't necessarily going to wow anyone, but each guy has ability and the quality depth provided by young arms like Duffey, Berrios and May makes the risks associated with that group more tolerable.

 

RELIEVERS

 

Closer: Glen Perkins

Setup Men: Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien, Trevor May

Middle Relievers: Michael Tonkin, Ryan O'Rourke

Depth: Ryan Pressly, J.R. Graham, Aaron Thompson, Taylor Rogers, Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi

 

Clearly, some work needs to be done here. I've got Tonkin and O'Rourke penciled in as middle relievers, but they're hardly more trustworthy than the unproven group on the next line. The Twins have a blatant need for a good left-hander, and would need to add another impact name to that "Setup" group in order to be able to realistically call the bullpen any kind of strength.

 

Working around these assumptions, here's how I would see the 25-man roster, as currently constituted, playing out on Opening Day:

 

C: Kurt Suzuki

1B: Joe Mauer

2B: Brian Dozier

SS: Eduardo Escobar

3B: Trevor Plouffe

LF: Miguel Sano

CF: Eddie Rosario

RF: Oswaldo Arcia

DH: Byung Ho Park

BN: John Ryan Murphy

BN: Danny Santana

BN: Eduardo Nunez

BN: ?

SP: Ervin Santana

SP: Phil Hughes

SP: Kyle Gibson

SP: Tommy Milone

SP: Ricky Nolasco

RP: Glen Perkins

RP: Kevin Jepsen

RP: Casey Fien

RP: Trevor May

RP: Ryan O'Rourke

RP: Michael Tonkin

RP: ?

 

The question marks certainly need to be addressed, and there are a few other places where Ryan should probably still be seeking to upgrade. What are your thoughts?

 

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[Rosterman]

The Twins are pretty well set, really. They just have to weigh how bad they want Sano AND Arcia in the corners, and it would be nice to have a proven vet in the bullpen (you left out Logan Darnell as a potential starter or bullpen guy).

 

The Twins will have backup depth at catcher, 1st base, middle infield, and outfield at AAA Rochester. They will have 1-2 arms to call upon for rotation spots. They will hopefully have too many guys (not on the 40-man) that they want at the major eaegue level sometime in 2016 for the bullpen.

 

Again, the biggest issue is possibly outfield defense. Would you put Sano at third and Plouffe in the outfield (bring back Cuddyer)! Santana and/or Nunez as a bench infielder is okay. I imagine Vargas will start at Rochester, again. I hope Park gets some rotation time at first with Mauer DHing.

[brvama]

Do you really think Milone will slot into SP before Duffy? For me it would be hard to ignore his performance in 2015 and would think that this spring is important for him going north as a starter. Knowing the tendencies I'm sure the vets will be given every chance to start, but am I dreaming if I think Duffy has a legit chance to start?

 

 

Also, I'm somewhat intrigued wth Joe Benson as OF depth. I realize he would have to show improvement with the bat but he could be, potentially a good 4-5 OFer. Good defense IIRC.

 

 

Outside of pitching I think you're spot on for the start of the season.

[beckmt]

I also believe the Duffey will be the 5th starter.  Nolasco will either be gone or the long reliever.  Also believe the Rogers will be a long man.  Have no faith in Tonkin, so pencil him in as gone and either a trade, FA, or one on the kids will also make this time.  We are in it to win, not to find out what we have this year.

[kellyvance]

Funny, I could do without Rickey (don't lose that number) Nolasco or Tommy Milone. I would like to see Berrios and Duffy in the rotation. Milone is a good change of pace middle RP. Kep or Walk need to be that 3rd OF, with Arcia on the bench as a 4th OF/lefty ph.

[Oldgoat_MN]

If Arcia returns to his pre-2015 self we will want him in the lineup every time the other team has a RH pitcher on the mound.

 

Moving Plouffe to the outfield instead of Sano is not going to happen. As has been stated elsewhere, (by Seth, IIRC) Sano is faster than Plouffe and very athletic. I doubt very much that he, at this point, is as good a 3B as Plouffe. Makes no sense.

 

The Twins have a lot of young, inexpensive players. They could go out, pay for and get a proven, effective LH for the bullpen before all the good ones are gone. (are they all gone already?)

[clutterheart]

Sano and Arcia in the corners would be a horrible defensive OF. Those two would have to really mash to make that OF worthwhile.

[SarasotaBill]

Duffey will be the #4 starter.

 

Milone and Nolasco fighting for #5 and long relief.

 

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

We need to address the closer issue. Perk has broken down in the second half the last few years and really cost us in last year's WC chase.

[nytwinsfan]

 

STARTERS

Rotation: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco

Depth: Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Jose Berrios, Pat Dean

That starting five isn't necessarily going to wow anyone, but each guy has ability and the quality depth provided by young arms like Duffey, Berrios and May makes the risks associated with that group more tolerable.

Yup, here we go again. Three of the best five starters are in the "depth" column to start the season. Hurray! Seriously though, if those five are the starting rotation come June I'm going to jump off a bridge.

[Blackjack]

Nice summary Nick!!! Thanks!!

 

It will be interesting to see how the extra outfielder and left-handed relievers spots shake out.  The extra outfielder should be fairly easy, but they're going to have to shell out some top dollar or trade some good assets to get a decent reliever.

[Platoon]

I like Sano, and I think Arcia needs a chance to recover. I also am ok with an offensive OF, but even for me, these two in the OF together is hard to envision. And impossible without Buxton between them. The only problem with the Twins signing a veteran 4th OF is they will play him in front of the youth. When you look at this roster, it's obvious what keeping Plouffe does. If Arcia had more trade value, even that would help, but he doesn't. And I still think that would end up as an Ortiz2. Sooner or later they have to do something. Following the usual plan of waiting for someone to get hurt, so you can send him to rehab, is not a plan!

[HitInAPinch]

Well, Nick, I just can't see an OF with both Sano and Arcia in it at the same time.  While we don't know how Sano will play in the OF, I still don't like moving a guy who was successful last year to accommodate 2 defensive stiffs like those 2.  Come to think of it:  why do so many think Arcia will get the chance?  I don't know what happened to him last season, but Arcia had a horrible year. 

 

While I like the combo of Nunez and Santana as bench players, I don't like the idea of a talented kid like Santana being regulated to the bench.  Nunez is a career backup.  Find another like him.

 

Buxton:  it's not about the BA, it's about the PA's.

 

Pitching:  ugh.

 

I'd rather see Nolasco in the BP and Milone elsewhere than keep Duffy and Berrios out of the rotation.  Milone has some trade value.  They WILL need May in the BP

[laloesch]

If Duffey is relegated to the pen behind Nolasco and Milone after last season I think I'm gonna puke.  It’s time to take the training wheels off and let the better pitchers pitch.  That means Duffey & May start and Berrios is on standby for the next opportunity.  If Tommy Milone is not willing to accept a BP role then it’s time to move on from him as well.  Nolasco will not pitch anymore games as a starter for the Twins.   

The rest of your assessment seems pretty spot on.  I cringe at the thought of a Sano, Rosario, Arcia outfield.  Rosario will have to cover a TON of ground playing alongside two substantially slower outfielders, one of whom has very poor defensive instincts (Arcia).

[lukeduke1980]

It would be nice to have more depth across the board - injuries will happen

[Seth Stohs]

I think if Buxton doesn't win the starting CF job in spring that Danny Santana will be the starting CF with Rosario in one of the corners and Sano in the other. Arcia to the bench.

 

As has been mentioned previously and in Nick's article, there's a lot of time left to work some of this out too. 

 

I think the starting 5 pitchers will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone and Duffey. I definitely think Duffey and Milone showed enough. So, with Nolasco it's long relief or let go (ideally traded). 

 

The bullpen looks fine, especially with all that depth. I would consider McGee and Storen, but I wouldn't overpay for anyone else. 

[Mauerpower]

Unless Arcia make changes between now and April he hasn't earned a spot in the lineup or in the outfield. Duffy earned a starting role in the rotation last season. If they don't give it to him that's poor management.

[nytwinsfan]

 

If Duffey is relegated to the pen behind Nolasco and Milone after last season I think I'm gonna puke.  It’s time to take the training wheels off and let the better pitchers pitch.  That means Duffey & May start and Berrios is on standby for the next opportunity.  If Tommy Milone is not willing to accept a BP role then it’s time to move on from him as well.  Nolasco will not pitch anymore games as a starter for the Twins.  

 

Same. A starting five of Santana, Hughes, Duffey, May and Berrios, (especially if Hughes is somewhere between his 2014 and 2015 self, which seems possible) could be a top 5-10 rotation in the MLB. No ace, for sure, but possibly four or even five #3s, and possibly one or two #2s. That's a very solid rotation.

 

Already last year, based on xFIP, the Twins rotation was pretty solid. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2015-visualized-starting-pitchers/

[ToddlerHarmon]

Seth is right on outfield and rotation, I hope.

 

As for bullpen, I would be very curious to see Taylor Rogers this year as a reliever. If his performance against righties is keeping him out of the majors, then at least use him vs. lefties.

 

I also like keeping Arcia on the bench, even if Buxton comes up. With the defensive flexibility of our regulars, he could replace any of six bats in the starting lineup, four of them righties.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Like it or not, Gibson will be starting next year.  I'm fine dumping Milone and Nolasco.  Milone I think could fetch something of use... Nolasco, not so much. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Side note, that OF defense looks bad.  I'd definitely go sign a stop gap CF if I could.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Am I the only one that thinks it would be best for Arcia to move on regardless? Even if his bat comes back to 2013 form, he is such a net negative in the of, (especially if Sano has to also be out there) that the team would be worse off with him attempting whatever he calls defense. The team would give up way less runs with him manning a corner spot, and dh-ing, for another team and having Buxton/Rosario/Sano and Davis cover the field. No? I mean, if the best reason to keep him is because he is out of options, is that really worth it?

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

I think the starting 5 pitchers will be Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Milone and Duffey. I definitely think Duffey and Milone showed enough. So, with Nolasco it's long relief or let go (ideally traded). 

 

The bullpen looks fine, especially with all that depth. I would consider McGee and Storen, but I wouldn't overpay for anyone else. 

 

I agree with Seth about the bullpen and what the rotation likely will be, but I think not giving May a chance to start is a huge huge mistake in terms of what it should be. Gibson is a solid #4, and Milone is a borderline #4/#5, but May is a likely #3 with #2 upside and #4 downside. I'd start May over Milone. Assuming no injuries to any of the other starters, I'd start Nolasco in AAA to "get back up to speed", put Milone in the long relief role, and then trade him as soon as someone needs a serviceable lefty starter. Then when you trade Milone, bring Nolasco up from AAA to the long relief role. At some point, if Berrios is ready, there are no injuries, and everyone else is pitching well (which admittedly is unlikely, given the way starting pitching goes) I would also consider trading Gibson if the return is good. Do I think the Twins will do any of that? Almost certainly not.
 

[Vanimal46]

I think the Twins have made some strides in regards to C. People may not be happy with giving up Hicks for Murphy, but he certainly has a higher floor than what Herrmann or Fryer could provide.

 

In regards to that potential outfield, I will quote from the movie Home Alone. "Buzz, your girlfriend. WOOF."

[roger]

No one is talking about Ryan Pressly.  He was an effective reliever last year until injured.  Personally, I see his injuries as one of the reasons the Twins didn't get the WC.  Is he being forgotten because the injury is expected to linger into 2016?

 

Not only do I see Duffey as a definite starter, I see him as becoming our best starter.  Sure, he doesn't throw serious heat, but his curveball is just plain filthy.  I can see him as a legit ACE by the time the playoffs roll around.

[Nick Nelson]

I see a lot of people grumbling about the idea of Milone and (especially) Nolasco in the rotation over Duffey and Berrios to start the year. I think it's important to keep in mind that nothing on Opening Day is permanent. 

 

Obviously, much of this will be dictated in spring training, for better or worse. If Nolasco looks like crap I don't think they're going to just throw him into the rotation anyway. However, I do believe he will have a leg up. The Twins are paying him a lot of money to start games and he hasn't really had an extended chance to do so when healthy over the last two years. If they're going to take a drastic step like sending Nolasco to the bullpen or (even more so) a straight-up release, I think they want to be sure he can't help them as a starter. There's not a lot of risk in giving him a month's worth of starts out of the gates, especially when you look at the service time benefits of giving Berrios at least a few weeks at Triple-A.

 

As far as Milone goes, again, that's going to play out in ST but I think the Twins like having a lefty in the rotation, he has an experience edge over Duffey/Berrios, and I'm not sure he does much for you as a reliever. 

 

It's important to keep in mind that last year was something of an outlier for the Twins in terms of rotation stability. Outside of Nolasco, they didn't really have anyone get seriously hurt or melt down. I wouldn't expect the same thing this year. Depth is important. To me, starting the year with Nolasco and Milone in the rotation is the best way to preserve that depth and keep quality arms at the ready. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nolasco to AAA isn't an option.  He can refuse the assignment.

[Mike Sixel]

Opening day roster is the roster for 6 weeks or so....how many games do inferior SP start in 6 weeks? Yes, depth is important, but the issue is that the old guys w/o options aren't very good, and the young guys might be quite good.

 

I'd rather have less depth, and quality, than mediocre starters, with quality sitting in AAA adding no value to the MLB roster. When do Berrios and Duffey come up if no one is hurt for long, and the other two are "adequate" but not good? Even if someone is hurt for a week, the guy that comes up is sent right back down in your scenario, right?

 

The team you's listed looks pretty "meh" to me. One elite player, 4 years into a rebuild (who was already in they system). one. One very good player at 2B (who was already in the system). No great SP, no great RP.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Come to think of it:  why do so many think Arcia will get the chance?  I don't know what happened to him last season, but Arcia had a horrible year. 

He did have a horrible year. But he's 24 and that horrible year was preceded by a bunch of very good ones. You don't give up on a young hitter of Arcia's caliber because of one bad season.

 

With a corner outfield spot open, and with a couple young outfielders likely to be ready after a couple weeks (or months) in the minors, this seems like a good opportunity to let Arcia sink or swim. I'm optimistic that he'll bounce back. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Opening day roster is the roster for 6 weeks or so....

Really? Because last year both May and Pelfrey were out of the rotation that the Twins announced at the end of spring training, and were both in it two weeks later.

 

You are drastically underestimating the amount of rotation turnover that takes place throughout a season, even in the early weeks.