The Clock is Ticking on the Twins' Roster

Yesterday's lineup - Garlick 179 bats 3rd, Pinch hit for by Larnach - batting 200, Correa 212 hits 4th, Kyle Farmer is hitting well at but PH for by Kepler 188.  We have Julien and Wallner at St Paul, Of course we will play Correa there are millions of reasons why, but Kepler, Garlick, and even Larnach do not belong.  We are a 500 team right now.  Time to play the best options.

Lewis and Kiriloff have shown what young players can do and Luis Arraez is showing why basehits matter.  Why are we waiting.  Do we really think that Kepler will be in demand at the trade deadline? 

Twins need to make the changes sooner rather than later.  We have some dead weight on the roster we could improve on.  This team is at 500 because they are a 500 team.  This team seems stuck in quicksand.  We need an influx of fresh players with some life in them.

So many players playing well at AAA?

Plethora of live arms in St Paul?

I think you need to slow the roll a little. Wallner has earned a shot. Headrick deserves another look. Julien maybe should get a couple DH at bats. That’s it. The good news is Lewis and Kiriloff are already here so the transition to a younger different lineup has already begun. 

Barring injuries—let’s get back to a set lineup day after day instead of making sure everyone gets equal playing time. Knowing that you’re playing every day and where you’re hitting in the lineup keeps those players focused and ready to go.  Just saying!!!  STOP playing with the lineup and show some consistency.

I see little to no value in Garlick.  I'd rather have Kirilloff taking an AB against a LH pitcher than see Garlick.  Kepler has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he will no longer hit a lick in a Twins uniform.  Maybe a change of scenery will help him somewhere.  I'd trade Kepler to the Rockies straight up for Grichuk if they'd do it.  Grichuk would be an upgrade from Garlick.  I'd also offer Larnach to the A's straight up for Esty Ruiz.  Larnach has a higher value on BBTV's due to more power and RBI potential, but Ruiz has 30 SB's in 63 games played.  He would be a switch hitting CF who would give us a speedy guy at the top or bottom of our order and allow us to manufacture a run or two occasionally. 

The dynamic of "speed" can sometimes jump start a lineup that otherwise tends to be moribund (like the Twins).  These minor moves would introduce some elements the Twins don't have right now (a more consistent RH OF bat and SPEED) while not moving anything of major value in the Twins system.  Larnach still has a value of about 18.0 in BBTV's.  That's pretty good.  But I'd rather sell high on him while still having someone like Wallner around as Larnach/Wallner is rather redundant.  The Twins also have Rodriguez on the horizon as well as a strong possibility of a highly rated outfield prospect with the #5 pick in the draft later this month.  

Kyle Garlick "The Lefty Masher" is not good at all. Can't hit righties, can't hit lefties, but still on the team and bats 3rd.

Roster moves I would make:

Larnach & Gordon for Ruiz.  Gordon, nice story but we don't need a light weight multi-position player and isn't long term.  Larnach known as a great hitter in college hasn't put it together at MLB level.  Taylor here next year and part of longer term plan?  I don't think so.  

Kepler is a 4th OF on any team and those trading for him don't need to and give up anything on equal value.  His value is all time low and will only go lower that he is playing.  Love to move him but just don't see it happening for good value back unless you package him with Miranda that as no defensive position in the infield and is he a good DH option? Miranda isn't going to a starting fixture in the field in '24 and years after. Not if Buxton is your full time DH this year or future years to come.

Have we soured on Lopez in the pen.  Could that sweeten the pot for someone who needs a right arm in pen.  

Next 45 days or so should be interesting, especially if we can build a 5-10 game lead in the central, hell any lead in the central will make this interesting. 

Beating a dead horse here, but I honestly don’t care if I ever see another AB in a Twins uniform from Kepler, Solano, Garlick, and Gallo. I wouldn’t cry if Castro and MAT were included as well (but for one reason or another, they are pretty much earning their keep). I’m just not interested in developing any further fan-player attachment with a player who will certainly not be a Twin next season and continues to flail away while taking critical ABs away from what should be our more quickly developing future core.

Joining Lewis and Kiriloff getting regular ABs and innings should be Miranda, Larnach, Julien and Wallner.  Lee should join this group in September. It’s time to invest and give these kids the experience and show them the confidence they deserve. Moreover, they’d be way more interesting to watch and do we honestly believe they could perform much worse than the players they would be replacing?

Except for Wallner, but including the injured Gordon, I think all of these prospects have been consensus Top 100s at some point. I have no idea why young player development at the MAJOR LEAGUE level is not one of, if not the single, most important criteria for our manager and his staff. We have a treasure trove of talent and at some point someone needs to be held responsible for developing it. I’m afraid we are letting it atrophy while also losing the opportunity to build deep fan enthusiasm by playing a bunch of one year, mediocre at best vet rentals. At the end of the day, it appears the buck will have to stop with the Nephew.

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Yesterday's lineup - Garlick 179 bats 3rd, Pinch hit for by Larnach - batting 200, Correa 212 hits 4th, Kyle Farmer is hitting well at but PH for by Kepler 188.  We have Julien and Wallner at St Paul, Of course we will play Correa there are millions of reasons why, but Kepler, Garlick, and even Larnach do not belong.  We are a 500 team right now.  Time to play the best options.

Lewis and Kiriloff have shown what young players can do and Luis Arraez is showing why basehits matter.  Why are we waiting.  Do we really think that Kepler will be in demand at the trade deadline? 

Yesterdays lineup could be the poster child why Rocco needs to go soon.  While the FO has its own bushel of faults/problems, even I don't believe Falvine sent a message to Rocco to bat Garlick 3rd, nor pinch hit Larnach and Kepler who are simply flailing at this point, nor having Correa hit 4th when there are currently better options for those slots with Lewis, Jeffers, Farmer.  Salary is moot and sunk cost at this point, order should show who is performing regardless of hurt feelings or regret of contracts.

We can talk about all the young talent in St Paul all we want. We have already seen that with some of that talent. The problem is with the manager and coaches,they don't care about strike outs and only love the homerun. They wouldn't call for a hit and run if it was the only play. I only see 2 players that actually are able to run bases. Station to Station to them is turning a noob on the radio. It's homerun or strike outs and starting pitching is paying the price. It is day after day becoming harder to watch and will be even harder to attend.

3 minutes ago, David Maro said:

turning a noob on the radio.

I hope that was consensual, lol. 

To have depth would imply that we have a solid core of starters at each position. Do we have that at any position? Having a bunch of mediocre players at every position does that constitute depth?

There seems to be a serious problem with maximizing player potential once the players get the call-up or land their contract. How other teams unlock the potential of former Twins players should raise some serious questions about how the team is run.

1 hour ago, sjunisu said:

Yesterdays lineup could be the poster child why Rocco needs to go soon.  While the FO has its own bushel of faults/problems, even I don't believe Falvine sent a message to Rocco to bat Garlick 3rd, nor pinch hit Larnach and Kepler who are simply flailing at this point, nor having Correa hit 4th when there are currently better options for those slots with Lewis, Jeffers, Farmer.  Salary is moot and sunk cost at this point, order should show who is performing regardless of hurt feelings or regret of contracts.

I agree that the FO does not tell Baldelli how to draft the lineup on a daily basis, but they DO push their 100% metric strategy on him which is why he bats limited right-handers (Garlick) against lefty's when we have higher quality left-handed batters (Kirilloff) sitting on the bench.  I wish he would go with the higher qualified hitters regardless of which side of the plate they are on, but the FO strategy says that he cannot manage that way.  That's why I do not put blame on Rocco.

This season is a broken record and nothing will change under the current administration. Rocco is an extension of the FO. Even if there is no direct message sent on a daily basis Rocco knows what the FO wants and they are on the same page when it comes to analytics. That means Rocco will play righties verses lefties and vice versa regardless of the player and how they are performing. It's been proven for 2 years now and even if it fails they won't waiver from it. Their spreadsheet says it is a good strategy even when it isn't. I can just envision Puckett, Hrbek and Gaetti getting pinch hit for due to the same strategy.... Tom Kelly would have been run out of town. But it's ok with this Manager because he isn't held accountable for anything. Even when he can't figure out how to rest his main players on different days if their "scheduled off days" fall on the same day. A 10 year old could figure that one out. Batting Garlick 3rd is absurd. Batting Kepler anywhere at this point is beyond absurd, but it won't change under this Manager or FO. They can blow away another season using their analytical BS and get away with it. Only the fans can force a change by not attending games and showing their dissatisfaction with the current regime. Ownerships pocketbook has to be affected to be effective. 

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Yesterday's lineup - Garlick 179 bats 3rd, Pinch hit for by Larnach - batting 200, Correa 212 hits 4th, Kyle Farmer is hitting well at but PH for by Kepler 188.  We have Julien and Wallner at St Paul, Of course we will play Correa there are millions of reasons why, but Kepler, Garlick, and even Larnach do not belong.  We are a 500 team right now.  Time to play the best options.

Lewis and Kiriloff have shown what young players can do and Luis Arraez is showing why basehits matter.  Why are we waiting.  Do we really think that Kepler will be in demand at the trade deadline? 

To be fair, Larnach has also shown the other end of what young players can do and Lewis and Kiriloff could be tripping over a sunflower seed from their next injury.

Too many players hitting around the Mendoza line.

The performance of advance scouts and the hitting coaches needs to be reviewed.

Video staffers need to step up with comparisons of hitters this year vs prior years.

The team building strategy of of the front office should be scrutinized.  (How is Gio doing in LA??)

The line-ups being put forth by Baldelli could be improved upon.

The first question to answer, is sliding in under the tape at the end of the season enough, if only to lose all games in one playoff series? I personally don't think so. If they somehow hold off the Guardians and Sox, and win but 82 games , should we be thrilled. I don't think so.

Again I think this a tryout for a future season.  What can we get for Kepler, Gordon, Gray, Maeda, Farmer, Gallo, Polanco, Solano, Taylor & Garlic. A future number 2 or 3 starter? A future catcher and centerfielder? I'd start shopping now, soon the middle of June and make several trades by July 31. I don't think this team gets too far with what it has in any event., but it does have some tradeable pieces that might help us get over the hump next year .

The time for trades was last winter. Maybe a Miranda, Larnach, and Winder plus someone else for Murphy may have worked. Who knows ... that is a dead issue. Ruiz was the prize for Murphy and Oakland might take Ryan, Ober, and Duran for him which is another way of saying Ruiz is not going anywhere.

Krilloff, Lewis, Ober, Varland, Castro, and Stewart are good additions thus far. Keep Larnach, AK, and Julien in the lineup and see what happens.

7 hours ago, rv78 said:

This season is a broken record and nothing will change under the current administration. Rocco is an extension of the FO. Even if there is no direct message sent on a daily basis Rocco knows what the FO wants and they are on the same page when it comes to analytics. That means Rocco will play righties verses lefties and vice versa regardless of the player and how they are performing. It's been proven for 2 years now and even if it fails they won't waiver from it. Their spreadsheet says it is a good strategy even when it isn't. I can just envision Puckett, Hrbek and Gaetti getting pinch hit for due to the same strategy.... Tom Kelly would have been run out of town. But it's ok with this Manager because he isn't held accountable for anything. Even when he can't figure out how to rest his main players on different days if their "scheduled off days" fall on the same day. A 10 year old could figure that one out. Batting Garlick 3rd is absurd. Batting Kepler anywhere at this point is beyond absurd, but it won't change under this Manager or FO. They can blow away another season using their analytical BS and get away with it. Only the fans can force a change by not attending games and showing their dissatisfaction with the current regime. Ownerships pocketbook has to be affected to be effective. 

Batting Garlick period, is absurd. 

The hardest thing is finding a guy to trade Kepler and others for.  The impending free agent class isn't stocked full of possible trade candidates and anyone more than a rental will cost more than this team can really afford.  We need to transition to a new age on Twins baseball but now is not the time.

I want to begin with this first:

A] 20R/ 4DBL/ 2TRP/ 6HR/ 28RBI/ .207AVG/ .308OB/ .386SLG/ .694OPS

B] 20R/ 5DBL/ 0TRP/ 7HR/ 18RBI/ .197AVG/ .268OB/ .387SLG/ .655OPS

OK, now guess who players A and B are? 

Player A is Larnach, and B is Kepler. I am NOT on a crusade or trying to pile on anyone, but both have nearly identical games played and AB, and Larnach is outproducing Kepler despite being a work in progress. And he's 4yrs younger, almost $8M cheaper, controllable, and has room to grow and improve. He will never be as good defensively as Kepler, but he's pretty solid and has at least as good of an arm, if not better. Meanwhile, Kepler is on a 3yr slide that keeps getting worse. Do I really have to state the obvious here?

And I haven't even mentioned the Twins reigning milb hitter of the year, Wallner, looking like he can play at the ML level and tearing up AAA.

The Twins could, quite literally, bring up Contreras from St Paul, a fine defensive OF, having probably his best season to date, and use him to replace Kepler and probably get as much performance, if not more.

Again, do I have to state the obvious here? Opportunity has to be presented and allowed. Period. 

AK and Lewis are, seemingly, hopefully, FINALLY healthy and ready to get on with their careers. They have already flashed and are amongst the best/most dynamic players on the roster. And they are here to stay, baseball gods willing.

So there's a start, and potential start that should happen sooner rather than later.

When you examine a few changes to the 2023 team, and some things happening in the minors, you see a subtle shift in regard to speed. The Twins want to take extra bases, and run a bit more. For the NOW, this team is still...primarily but not exclusively...built for power and OB and runs scored as a result, with acceptable SO numbers.

The problem is they are not getting the power they expected, or the run production, and the SO's are horrible. Jeffers has lowered his K %. Gallo is essentially neutral. But virtually everyone else has seen their K% rise 20-35%. This includes guys like Vazquez and Farmer, who weren't brought in a power bats. So what gives? 

I think it's WAY TOO EASY to blame the FO or coaching staff for some mythical agenda. How can some players speak in glowing terms about Popkins and he's the problem? How can Jeffers, and even Castro, show real improvement but the coaching is terrible? Does this fall on the players just all pressing or having bad seasons at once? Is it a weird coincidence? 

If anyone wants to tell me you have the answer, I'd sure love to hear it. But I'd be willing to bet you aren't exactly 100% correct.

Gallo has been exactly as hoped for when healthy, streaky, but dangerous and productive. Buxton, also streaky, has looked great when hot, even flashing some speed and great baserunning despite bad wheels, despite being restricted to DH. He's single-handedly won a few games, as has Gallo. Not hard to see both continue to produce when back, despite each being "streaky". 

Whether you are a fan or not, Correa is NOT this poor of a hitter, despite his much slower than normal start to this season. Is it pressure? Has his heel been affecting worse than we know? I simply don't know, and none of us do. It sure hasn't affected his great defense. Hopefully he gets right in the batters box SOON.

There is NOTHING WRONG with what Farmer, Solano, or Taylor have done so far. They've done EXACTLY what they were supposed to do. Taylor probably the most. But none of them, including Castro, was supposed to be playing almost daily. What they've done is keep the team afloat around .500 or above despite being stretched. 

And I simply can't and won't blame the FO, or the coaching staff, for Celestino, or Martin, or even Helman not being ready to help at all at this point. Not sure I can blame them for Gordon's poor start, but then getting hot before a broken bone. Considering Miranda thrived in 2022 with the same staff, but got off to a horrific start this year, who is to blame for that?

Polanco is one of my favorite Twins players, and an absolute stud when healthy. Is it the fault of the FO or the coaching staff, or the new trainer, that he was slow to recover in the offseason? Or is hurt again now? He makes a difference when healthy. And I'd have a hard time believing the Twins wouldn't bring him back in 2024 for his reasonable deal. 

Where I DO blame the FO is NOT in their general construction of the team, but in their seeming procrastination of changes. They wanted Kepler as a veteran floor OF due to questions? OK, I can understand that at least. But enough is enough! 

Unless they plan on NOT bringing Polanco back in 2024, why in hell is Julien ONLY playing 2B? Totally agree his arm should dismiss him from 3B conversation. But why not 1B? Why not LF? He's played them both in college and his 1st milb season. He's still a good athlete with decent speed. How much worse could he be in LF than previous options such as Young, or Willingham, or thrusting Arraez or Gordon in to the OF in previous seasons and expected to learn on the fly? 

For a team that is trying to embrace e roster and lineup flexibility, with a putrid offense that is incredibly inconsistent, why are they seemingly ignoring young talent with high ceilings and the opportunity to spark the lineup, and do things they've actually done before?

I am NOT dismissing individual players who have simply underperformed. Nor am I dismissing the possibility of a poor collective approach taught by the staff. But then again, I don't know that the approach being taught is at fault, or the player's implantation of said plan is in error. EXAMPLE: are they being told to NOT swing early at a pitch that looks good early vs working the count? Or are they pressing, looking to make a HUGE impact on a pitch and getting in their own head? 

THAT'S on the coaching staff to figure out and work on, and communicate better. What the FO can do is make some hard or uncomfortable choices in roster construction to make a difference for NOW, as well as the future. Because what they are doing now isn't working.

And I'm not going to address the pitching staff here, because really, it's the offense that is the problem.

Sorry for being so long here, but dammit, this is the problem that should have the Twins 10-15 games above .500 and absolutely running away with the ALC.

Kepler has struggled, no doubt. Still, you can have Gallo and I'll take Kepler if it is a choice between the two.

Hoping for better, like today (minus the 17 K's), until the new crop grows in successfully.

I agree. The clock is ticking, but the Twins are hoping to have some demand, so at least they don't eat all the salary and can get at least a meddling prospect back for: Gallo, Kepler, Madea, Pagan, Lopez, Thielbar, Solano, Taylor. Any or all can be replaced by pl;ayers currently in the minor league syste,. I doubt most will draw va,lkue or interest, but who knows.

Garlick, DeLeon are just roster fodder. DeLeon may be working himself into a possible resign of a minor league contract in the off-season as the aging vet stashed at AAA.

Gray, Polanco are two guys that could draw a decent return. Or you just keep Gray and make a qualifying offer. Gray - 13 starts and six decision, to go with his minimal ERA. What gives?

Woods-Richardson, Henriquez, Balazovic still have age on their side. The Twins could afford another season on the 40-man and hope they come around bigtime in AAA for the rest of this season. Gordon, Sands, Celestino, Alcala, WInder could all be posible trade chips if can stay healthy. But still under control. But they will make some 40-man decisions ahrder in the offf-season and if apckaged with other playrs might get the Twins a better return.

19 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

...but Kepler, Garlick, and even Larnach do not belong. 

The fact you have to say "even" is part of the issue.  Larnach's upside is MLB mediocrity, and I wouldn't be wasting my time there.  Somehow we've been propagandized to believe he might be good.  He won't be, his MiLB and MLB work thus far predict yuck.  If I hear Bonnes mention Larnach as an alternative one more time as Gleeman talks Kepler vs Wallner, my head will explode.  Sorry, John!

p.s. I'm not going all in on Wallner, either, but something in his background leads me to believe it's at least possible for him to succeed despite the horrid K rate.  Can't really define it.  I guess, to me, it seems he's good at learning.

11 hours ago, Richard said:

The hardest thing is finding a guy to trade Kepler and others for.  The impending free agent class isn't stocked full of possible trade candidates and anyone more than a rental will cost more than this team can really afford.  We need to transition to a new age on Twins baseball but now is not the time.

I honestly don't think the idea of trading Kepler is remotely realistic at this point. He's too old and too streaky. 

16 hours ago, Jacksson said:

(How is Gio doing in LA??)

2 HR's, 24 rbi's, .712 OPS compared to Farmer's 3 HR's, 14 rbi's, .668 OPS. Farmer has much more position flexibility (and missed time getting hit in the face). I'll take Farmer.