Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, and the Two-Step Arbitration Shuffle

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are entering another important offseason with plenty of questions surrounding the roster, but some of the first decisions will come down to simple arithmetic. MLB Trade Rumors recently released its annual arbitration projections, giving the public an early estimate of what arbitration-eligible players could earn for the upcoming season. Two names stand out for the Twins, not because of the projected salaries, but because of what those salaries could mean for the team's offseason plans.

Trevor Larnach is projected to earn $6.3 million in 2027. Royce Lewis is projected at $5.1 million. Neither number is outrageous. In fact, both could be reasonable salaries if the players perform at or near their previous levels. That's exactly what makes these decisions interesting. The Twins have to determine whether those players (at the projected salaries) represent useful assets, roster complications, or both.

Trevor Larnach

Larnach's projected $6.3-million salary feels relatively modest when compared to his potential production. FanGraphs valued Larnach at $17.9 million during the 2026 season, making the projected arbitration salary roughly one-third of the value he provided. That doesn't mean the Twins should automatically keep him, but it certainly gives the organization a reason to avoid giving away the asset simply because it doesn't have a perfect spot for him.

The bigger question is playing time. Larnach appeared in 122 games in 2026 and hit .269/.352/.436 with 13 home runs, 23 doubles and a 121 OPS+, while being shielded from facing left-handed pitchers. Those aren't numbers a team should casually remove from its lineup. But the Twins also have to figure out where Larnach fits. If the organization believes it can improve at first base, add another outfielder or give more opportunities to younger players, Larnach could become part of an increasingly crowded roster. His arbitration salary is affordable enough that Minnesota doesn't have to make a decision before the arbitration deadline.

Last offseason, the Twins offered Larnach arbitration with the hope that a trade would eventually materialize. It didn't. Instead, the team went into spring training with a player it had seemingly hoped to move. They also tried to move him at the trade deadline before Houston’s owner nixed the deal. The Twins don't want to repeat that cycle. They do, however, have value on their hands, and they need to decide on a way to optimize it.

Royce Lewis

Lewis presents a similar question, but with significantly more upside and considerably more uncertainty. His projected $5.1-million salary is higher than the $4.3-million value FanGraphs assigned to his 2026 season. On the surface, that isn't a great return. But looking only at 2026 would be a mistake. Lewis provided substantially more value from 2023 through 2025, and he continues to have upside, if he can put it all together. The problem is that the Twins have spent enough time dealing with injuries and inconsistency. His future role is no longer obvious.

That creates the potential for a very familiar offseason scenario. The Twins could offer him arbitration, because $5.1 million is a manageable number and because they believe there is a trade market for a talented player. However, if they try that, they might discover that moving him isn't as easy as anticipated.

Suddenly, Lewis is occupying a roster spot—and not just any roster spot. He could affect how the Twins approach first base. He could affect how they distribute playing time around the infield. He could influence whether the club believes it has room for another veteran bat.

This is where arbitration decisions become more complicated than simply asking whether a player is worth his projected salary. The question is whether the player is worth the opportunity cost attached to that salary and roster spot; Lewis probably isn't.

Holding an Asset

The Twins have used arbitration in this manner before. The basic strategy is understandable. Rather than non-tendering a player or allowing him to walk away for nothing, the team offers arbitration, retains the player's rights, and tries to find a trade that makes sense.

In theory, it gives the front office leverage. The player has value. The contract is known. Other teams have an opportunity to acquire him. Minnesota doesn't have to sell low simply because it's decided the player isn't part of its long-term plans.

The problem comes when the trade doesn't happen. One example is Kyle Farmer in 2024. The Twins had a veteran infielder under contract who could provide useful depth, but his presence also complicated the organization's efforts to create opportunities for younger players. Larnach became another example last offseason. Minnesota apparently saw enough value in retaining him to go through the arbitration process, but no trade that met the organization's expectations materialized. There's a roster inertia enforced by arbitration. The abstract fear of losing a player "for nothing" can lead a team to hold onto someone they should part with. Once a contract has been tendered, though, moving the player sometimes yields less value than expected—which can lead a club not to move said player at all, locking in a mediocre option.

For a team with a deep roster and limited payroll flexibility, that can become especially problematic. A $5-million or $6-million player isn't expensive in a vacuum, by baseball standards. But if that player prevents the organization from adding someone it believes is a better fit, the real cost is much higher. That's why the Lewis and Larnach decision could be particularly important. 

The Two-Step Shuffle

There's nothing wrong with offering arbitration to a player the Twins would prefer to trade. In fact, it can be smart roster management. The mistake would be assuming that the trade will eventually happen. The Twins need to enter the offseason with clear priorities. If Lewis is part of those plans, keep him and build around him. If Larnach is part of those plans, give him a defined role. If either player is viewed primarily as a trade asset, though, the Twins need to understand what happens if the market doesn't cooperate.

That final question is perhaps the most important. The Twins can't afford to make an arbitration decision in November and then make their roster decisions in February, as though the first decision never happened.

Both Larnach and Lewis have enough talent to be useful pieces of a competitive team. Their projected salaries make them relatively affordable. But affordable players can still create expensive roster decisions. The two-step shuffle only works if the Twins know where they want to end up.

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Will both Lewis and Larnach be on the 2026 Twins? Does their relatively low arbitration estimate change the team’s view of the players? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Jeff K]

I feel like the Twins inability to Trade Larnach at the deadline is either a result of asking too much, or other teams not wanting a part time DH.  I would let him go.  Lewis is a tougher decision because the Twins don't currently have a great solution for first base.  As many have previously noted, Clemens is best suited for multiple positions vs. anchoring him at first base.  The Twins need to solve first base long term and Lewis does not appear to be that guy.  They should try to make a trade that yields a solid and controllable first baseman...not named Royce Lewis.

[Coach JT]

I think the Twins need to move on from both players, I don ´ t think either one will get anything back in return. Time to go young.

[Whitey333]

I agree they should moves on from Larnach and Lewis.  I like Larnach much more than Lewis.  But non- tendering and /or releasing them and getting nothing in return sure seems wasteful.  It also shows very poor roster management.  It looks like we will already lose Jeffers for nothing.   Oh that's right we may get an extra draft pick.  Big deal.  Not much of a return for an all star catcher.  They should have traded a couple of these guys the past few years to get something.  Trading a part time player like a relatively healthy Larnach and yet keeping Buxton who is also part time due to his long list of stays on IL  is foolish.  The roster management on this team is very poor.

[ziggy]

If I were making the decision I would offer them both arbitration, for a slightly lower amount. If the Twins want to retain the player then it does not matter who wins, you pay the man. If the Twins want to trade the player it gives you a 3 month window to do so and if the player wins arbitration and the Twins' intention is to move on they are not obligated to sign him and they simply release the man.

But what do I know, I was surprised they offered Larnauch arbitration last year and kept him on the roster for the whole season.

[mluebker]

28 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

Lewis is a tougher decision because the Twins don't currently have a great solution for first base. 

Keaschall at first. If he’s going to have to learn a position to keep his bat in the lineup, it might as well be there. And I don’t buy the whole “a first baseman must be a power hitter” line of thinking. He’s a solid hitter who creates excitement on the basepaths, two things Lewis has demonstrated he isn’t.

As for Lewis’s hypothetical upside, how many years are we going to talk about that before acknowledging that he’s showed us who he is already? If they can’t trade him, DFA him and let both him and the Twins move on.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Both of these players need to go for different reasons.  Larnach had a solid season, but rolling the dice with the raft of outfielders the Twins possess has much more upside and has the potential to be much more helpful long term.  Lewis on the other hand has been pretty much a mess for too long to consider him a solution at first base or anywhere else.  
 

Trade value for each is very limited. If I were the Twins, I would start speed dialing around the league to see what could be out there.  If nobody bites, it’s non tender time.  It may seem like giving them away for nothing, but if we can get better players in their (former) roles, the team is better for it.  

[Linus]

To me, money is not the issue. Neither arbitration amount is that onerous. The question is - do you want the player?  I would probably bring Lewis back but only with the caveat that he earns playing time and might end up as a utility player. Larnach shouldn’t play in the field but I want to shoot higher if I’m going to have a full time DH. It’s complicated by the fact that EmRod has a substantial chance of being a bust and has no options. If he thrives we have no use for Larnach; if he busts Larnachs OPS+ of 121 looks pretty good as a safety net. 

[killercarewoliva]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I agree they should moves on from Larnach and Lewis.  I like Larnach much more than Lewis.  But non- tendering and /or releasing them and getting nothing in return sure seems wasteful.  It also shows very poor roster management.  It looks like we will already lose Jeffers for nothing.   Oh that's right we may get an extra draft pick.  Big deal.  Not much of a return for an all star catcher.  They should have traded a couple of these guys the past few years to get something.  Trading a part time player like a relatively healthy Larnach and yet keeping Buxton who is also part time due to his long list of stays on IL  is foolish.  The roster management on this team is very poor.

The person writing this. it's the choice we have now and for a number of decades. it's not the original choice. once you drafted your players, they are with you until you release them or trade them. you didn't have to worry about getting nothing for Jeffers with a draft pick, but that draft pick thing might not be there much longer either. The one that started this as far as signing somebody he didn't start free agency was the dastardly George steinbrunner. before free agency. Jim Hunter was the Oakland A's player. suddenly he's in New York playing for $350,000. New York was the kingpin of signing free agents and this was the beginning of not fair play in baseball because some teams have more money than others. no salary, cap and salary. caps and football can give you enormous incomes and to the high millions of dollars like $70 million to play 20 football games. what kind of salary cap is that? but in baseball for me, the players are being tested. if they can't play with a salary cap to hell with it. you want to have a larger percentage of the population being able to entertain themselves at a baseball game. and the talk of money not that much. just $5 million. what okay yes again who do you know that makes $5 million anybody that writes that that it's not much. it's relative of course to the business. meaning major sports is out of hand drastically and the people are willing to pay. I'm not not going to and of course like I've been told that's my choice so the person who it is his choice. they're not worth that much money if you're buying a close to the field seat. let's thank Mr. George steinbrunner for starting it and he himself said this will ruin the game, but he didn't realize that the fans don't care how the players got to the field in their City. if you drafted them or traded for them. wonderful, but if you went out and bought them instead, not using your noggin that's okay too. it's like legal stealing and I don't like it. All right tearing to me all you younger people so.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

50 minutes ago, Linus said:

To me, money is not the issue. Neither arbitration amount is that onerous. The question is - do you want the player?  I would probably bring Lewis back but only with the caveat that he earns playing time and might end up as a utility player. Larnach shouldn’t play in the field but I want to shoot higher if I’m going to have a full time DH. It’s complicated by the fact that EmRod has a substantial chance of being a bust and has no options. If he thrives we have no use for Larnach; if he busts Larnachs OPS+ of 121 looks pretty good as a safety net. 

I agree that the money isn't a issue, it is about roster construction, bringing them back and playing them is just the same thing as the last few years. Larnach would be a great fit for a team that needs a platoon player for left, right and DH. (Not something the Twins currently need). Lewis is fine back up infield utility guy (3B, 2B, 1B) but not a guy that has proven to be a starter. Having either on the team would seem to limit Keaschall's playing time, not something I want to see happen. 

[killercarewoliva]

4 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

The person writing this. it's the choice we have now and for a number of decades. it's not the original choice. once you drafted your players, they are with you until you release them or trade them. you didn't have to worry about getting nothing for Jeffers with a draft pick, but that draft pick thing might not be there much longer either. The one that started this as far as signing somebody he didn't start free agency was the dastardly George steinbrunner. before free agency. Jim Hunter was the Oakland A's player. suddenly he's in New York playing for $350,000. New York was the kingpin of signing free agents and this was the beginning of not fair play in baseball because some teams have more money than others. no salary, cap and salary. caps and football can give you enormous incomes and to the high millions of dollars like $70 million to play 20 football games. what kind of salary cap is that? but in baseball for me, the players are being tested. if they can't play with a salary cap to hell with it. you want to have a larger percentage of the population being able to entertain themselves at a baseball game. and the talk of money not that much. just $5 million. what okay yes again who do you know that makes $5 million anybody that writes that that it's not much. it's relative of course to the business. meaning major sports is out of hand drastically and the people are willing to pay. I'm not not going to and of course like I've been told that's my choice so the person who it is his choice. they're not worth that much money if you're buying a close to the field seat. let's thank Mr. George steinbrunner for starting it and he himself said this will ruin the game, but he didn't realize that the fans don't care how the players got to the field in their City. if you drafted them or traded for them. wonderful, but if you went out and bought them instead, not using your noggin that's okay too. it's like legal stealing and I don't like it. All right tearing to me all you younger people so.

I think last time the players wanted to move the 6-year thing to 3 years with the club that drafted you and his response was highly correct. that would kill any chance of a low-market team ever to be a winning team. unless you are Tampa maybe they could. what that says to me the players generally don't have a home team persona. loyalty well if you're Joe mauer that's loyalty and he's not the only one but most of them just aren't

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, ziggy said:

If I were making the decision I would offer them both arbitration, for a slightly lower amount. If the Twins want to retain the player then it does not matter who wins, you pay the man. If the Twins want to trade the player it gives you a 3 month window to do so and if the player wins arbitration and the Twins' intention is to move on they are not obligated to sign him and they simply release the man.

But what do I know, I was surprised they offered Larnauch arbitration last year and kept him on the roster for the whole season.

If the player wins, they are obligated to sign him. They aren't obligated to keep him. But they still have to pay them. Losing arbitration and then just releasing the player is awful roster management. You're suggesting dropping 12+ million for absolutely nothing.

[Whammy]

1 hour ago, mluebker said:

Keaschall at first. If he’s going to have to learn a position to keep his bat in the lineup, it might as well be there. And I don’t buy the whole “a first baseman must be a power hitter” line of thinking. He’s a solid hitter who creates excitement on the basepaths, two things Lewis has demonstrated he isn’t.

As for Lewis’s hypothetical upside, how many years are we going to talk about that before acknowledging that he’s showed us who he is already? If they can’t trade him, DFA him and let both him and the Twins move on.

Two things. 

First, I hate Keaschall at 1B. I think he'd be terrible there. 

Second, I totally agree that the "first baseman must be a power hitter" is an outdated concept. And I think the Twins have shown over the last 5 years that they agree. They'd much rather move an infielder to 1B and have above average defense from them instead of moving a lumbering corner OF to 1B and hope he survives. They view 1B as an infielder that needs infielder skills. Not a place to dump and guy who's not fast enough to cover ground in the OF.

I think it's time to move on from Lewis, but I do think with another year at 1B he could be an elite defender there. I just don't view Keaschall as having infielder skills and instincts and I think putting him at 1B would be a mistake. He was statistically a neutral defender in RF by the end of the year. With some reps I think he'll be totally fine in a corner OF spot. 

 

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, mluebker said:

Keaschall at first. If he’s going to have to learn a position to keep his bat in the lineup, it might as well be there. And I don’t buy the whole “a first baseman must be a power hitter” line of thinking. He’s a solid hitter who creates excitement on the basepaths, two things Lewis has demonstrated he isn’t.

As for Lewis’s hypothetical upside, how many years are we going to talk about that before acknowledging that he’s showed us who he is already? If they can’t trade him, DFA him and let both him and the Twins move on.

Keaschall could be a good choice for first.  That said, I am still betting on his athleticism making him a solid outfielder with more experience.  I am not a Lewis supporter and am ready for the Twins to move on, but they need a solution at first base before doing so.  It's not Sabato.

[Twins GFP]

Another article where the bulk of the comments suggest the Twins throw away viable big league assets for nothing.

 

[Twins GFP]

On another note,  I don't think TD is posting enough articles on what the Twins should do with Royce Lewis and Trevor Larnach and arbitration eligible players . It really should be 3-4 articles per day instead of the 1-2 we are seeing now.

[PatPfund]

They shouldn't offer arbitration to anyone they don't want on the roster next year. Speed-dialing around before the deadline won't do much either (why tell the Twins you want to trade for someone, when you can wait and sign them as a free agent without surrendering an asset? Also worth remembering that you won't have months and months to work out trades, because a lockout may close things down right down until spring training (which might be in early summer).

I'd let Larnach (and Ober) go to FA, and keep in touch. I'd offer arb to Lewis and see if he can build on health to regain offensive potency, and start him at 1B. 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, killercarewoliva said:

The person writing this. it's the choice we have now and for a number of decades. it's not the original choice. once you drafted your players, they are with you until you release them or trade them. you didn't have to worry about getting nothing for Jeffers with a draft pick, but that draft pick thing might not be there much longer either. The one that started this as far as signing somebody he didn't start free agency was the dastardly George steinbrunner. before free agency. Jim Hunter was the Oakland A's player. suddenly he's in New York playing for $350,000. New York was the kingpin of signing free agents and this was the beginning of not fair play in baseball because some teams have more money than others. no salary, cap and salary. caps and football can give you enormous incomes and to the high millions of dollars like $70 million to play 20 football games. what kind of salary cap is that? but in baseball for me, the players are being tested. if they can't play with a salary cap to hell with it. you want to have a larger percentage of the population being able to entertain themselves at a baseball game. and the talk of money not that much. just $5 million. what okay yes again who do you know that makes $5 million anybody that writes that that it's not much. it's relative of course to the business. meaning major sports is out of hand drastically and the people are willing to pay. I'm not not going to and of course like I've been told that's my choice so the person who it is his choice. they're not worth that much money if you're buying a close to the field seat. let's thank Mr. George steinbrunner for starting it and he himself said this will ruin the game, but he didn't realize that the fans don't care how the players got to the field in their City. if you drafted them or traded for them. wonderful, but if you went out and bought them instead, not using your noggin that's okay too. it's like legal stealing and I don't like it. All right tearing to me all you younger people so.

We're you imbibing in copious amounts of alcohol when you wrote this?  It doesn't make any sense.

[tony&rodney]

Agree that both players have value. The problem is hoping for new results from the same players.

Larnach could work as a part time DH and an occasional (very limited) corner outfielder. Lewis could work as a utility player (1B, 2B, 3B) and pinch hitter or pinch runner. Essentially using these two guys as the 12th and 13th roster spots on the position side.

There should be some value for another team, even if the return is an A ball player. The front office needs to find a place for both of these guys. It is time to move on.

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I agree they should moves on from Larnach and Lewis.  I like Larnach much more than Lewis.  But non- tendering and /or releasing them and getting nothing in return sure seems wasteful.  It also shows very poor roster management.  It looks like we will already lose Jeffers for nothing.   Oh that's right we may get an extra draft pick.  Big deal.  Not much of a return for an all star catcher.  They should have traded a couple of these guys the past few years to get something.  Trading a part time player like a relatively healthy Larnach and yet keeping Buxton who is also part time due to his long list of stays on IL  is foolish.  The roster management on this team is very poor.

So wait, drop these guys for nothing and go young, but the extra pick for Jeffers is no big deal? How do you think going young works? And then you constantly churn players, useful but not great enough players, until when?

If you focus on the IL time then that's all you'll see and you'll never recognize the value of the time on the field.  Earl Weaver's whole game was based on getting guys in a position to do what they do well and not leave them exposed in moments where they have to do stuff they can't. If you're waiting to draft and develop a bunch of kids to come together and win the World Series with a ten 150 game starters and a five man rotation then you're never going to be happy.

Real life involves piecing together valuable parts.  You know why LAD wins? Because they have about eight excellent pitchers in the rotation who can only manage 15-20 starts a year. Take a closer look at the Brewers team that everyone thinks we need to chase. There are only four guys with 140 games played and the rest are a patch work covering injuries and trades. Yellich only played 118, does he suck too? Misioroski is the only guy with over 125 innings pitched, so how can they be winning?

This ridiculous quest for perfect players is tremendously misguided  Larnach has been a valuable member of this team for his entire career, and now that it looks like there are three or four better OF than him it's probably time to move on, but it's not because his 120 OPS+ isn't any good. 

[Stew]

Larnach had the best hitting year of his career. But he only hits righties. He is still pouring in the outfield. Even though he improved a little. Trade him because we have to give the young players a chance. We can't get a lot for him by himself. But we could trade a fairly good prospect with him. If we were to get a higher rated prospect in the deal. It's tricky because you have to find a team in the space houston was last year. They were 28th. In left handed hitting. And there corner outfield was by no means great at all. That was our best chance. Teams with those flaws will look to the open market instead. Also give lewis one more year unless you find a really good first baseman.

[MackMan]

Yeah. This is kind of a weird place to be right now. The Twins, thanks to Falvey and Levine, have been constructed very strangely. I'm wondering if the long-term goals were to have developed 1 or both of these players and eventually flip them for some established pitching or close to big league ready pitching. We have a major log-jam of players that are fringe starters, but are being surpassed by better, younger talent. We can't hold on to them as they've shown who they are as players, but we can't trade them because most teams more than likely would rather just do a player swap where Lewis/Larnach are swapped for players of the same caliber. 

What I think we do, offer then contracts. Then when ST comes around have a sit down with both stating you are fighting for your Major league roster spot. Force them to step up their game and excel. If they can't or refuse to do so, you found your answer in who really wants to stay and who wants to be somewhere else. Whether DFA'ing one/both or trading them for a change of scenery and either a middling releiver/aging starter/super utility player to help benefit the team down the stretch. 

I know it sounds like throwing money down the drain, but we need to make the decision of contending in 2027 or looking to revamp and contend in 2028 and decide who is going to be part of those long-term plans. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

I agree that the money isn't a issue, it is about roster construction, bringing them back and playing them is just the same thing as the last few years. Larnach would be a great fit for a team that needs a platoon player for left, right and DH. (Not something the Twins currently need). Lewis is fine back up infield utility guy (3B, 2B, 1B) but not a guy that has proven to be a starter. Having either on the team would seem to limit Keaschall's playing time, not something I want to see happen. 

Agree. The lineup needs a change and both players represent that opportunity. 

[Cris E]

6 minutes ago, MackMan said:

Yeah. This is kind of a weird place to be right now. The Twins, thanks to Falvey and Levine, have been constructed very strangely. I'm wondering if the long-term goals were to have developed 1 or both of these players and eventually flip them for some established pitching or close to big league ready pitching. We have a major log-jam of players that are fringe starters, but are being surpassed by better, younger talent. We can't hold on to them as they've shown who they are as players, but we can't trade them because most teams more than likely would rather just do a player swap where Lewis/Larnach are swapped for players of the same caliber. 

What I think we do, offer then contracts. Then when ST comes around have a sit down with both stating you are fighting for your Major league roster spot. Force them to step up their game and excel. If they can't or refuse to do so, you found your answer in who really wants to stay and who wants to be somewhere else. Whether DFA'ing one/both or trading them for a change of scenery and either a middling releiver/aging starter/super utility player to help benefit the team down the stretch. 

I know it sounds like throwing money down the drain, but we need to make the decision of contending in 2027 or looking to revamp and contend in 2028 and decide who is going to be part of those long-term plans. 

I'm not sure this was a plan so much a natural consequence of drafting the best player available.  Everyone says it's the right thing to do (vs drafting for need) but then they always say Having Too Many Good Players Is A Good problem To Have. that's kind of where we are today in the outfield.  What good teams do is trade one of these kids for something they need more of, or trying shifting them to a position of need in the lower levels. Where MIN falls short is desperately clinging to all their prospects because they know that's the only way this franchise adds top talent. We won't pay what it costs for developed players. 

As far as how to handle L & L, Larnach already did commit to improving himself last winter.  He lost weight, improved his foot speed and defense and had another good year at the plate. Lewis was lost again, flashing high after he was sent to St Paul and floating back down within a month.  He has to go because he's not reliable and Larnach has to go because of the traffic in the OF. But we can get something for Trevor's proven ability to hit and Lewis' vast potential as long as we don't price ourselves out of a very short trading season. 

[MackMan]

1 minute ago, Cris E said:

I'm not sure this was a plan so much a natural consequence of drafting the best player available.  Everyone says it's the right thing to do (vs drafting for need) but then they always say Having Too Many Good Players Is A Good problem To Have. that's kind of where we are today in the outfield.  What good teams do is trade one of these kids for something they need more of, or trying shifting them to a position of need in the lower levels. Where MIN falls short is desperately clinging to all their prospects because they know that's the only way this franchise adds top talent. We won't pay what it costs for developed players. 

As far as how to handle L & L, Larnach already did commit to improving himself last winter.  He lost weight, improved his foot speed and defense and had another good year at the plate. Lewis was lost again, flashing high after he was sent to St Paul and floating back down within a month.  He has to go because he's not reliable and Larnach has to go because of the traffic in the OF. But we can get something for Trevor's proven ability to hit and Lewis' vast potential as long as we don't price ourselves out of a very short trading season. 

This is correct. Larnach I think is the higher floor/lower ceiling and has show consistency everywhere. Like you said, he's shown the ability to take the necessary steps to stay on the field, and perform. Whereas Lewis has tried (as far as we know) to use his natural ability to get better. 

[Cris E]

3 hours ago, ziggy said:

If I were making the decision I would offer them both arbitration, for a slightly lower amount. If the Twins want to retain the player then it does not matter who wins, you pay the man. If the Twins want to trade the player it gives you a 3 month window to do so and if the player wins arbitration and the Twins' intention is to move on they are not obligated to sign him and they simply release the man.

But what do I know, I was surprised they offered Larnauch arbitration last year and kept him on the roster for the whole season.

In arbitration you don't just throw out a number you want to pay because if you lose you get to pay the number the player threw out there. You really don't do that if you hope to trade the guy later because he's going to cost more and he's got less marginal value. 

They kept Larnach last year because their OF was Buxton (with Outman as defensive caddy) and Wallner in RF and Martin and Larnach in a platoon in LF. There were no ready players in the minors at that point so you were then looking at the unproven Roden, more Outman, or more Clemens if these four didn't pan out. If you remove Larnach and then you neeeed Wallner to perform and I don't think they felt comfortable with that. OTOH if Jenkins or ERod did appear ready in St Paul then you could try moving Wallner or Larnach and bring them up.

It turned out both the kids were hurt or not playing well when opportunities presented themselves  mid-season, so we were treated to a lot of Clemens and Kreidler in CF plus the defensive stylings of newcomer Keaschall. Things would have been substantially worse without Larnach because all he cost was money, and his trade value was at least as bad then as it is now. At least this time he's got yet another year of solid performance in the books.