Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, and the Two-Step Arbitration Shuffle

[bjorks]

5 hours ago, mluebker said:

Keaschall at first. If he’s going to have to learn a position to keep his bat in the lineup, it might as well be there. And I don’t buy the whole “a first baseman must be a power hitter” line of thinking. He’s a solid hitter who creates excitement on the basepaths, two things Lewis has demonstrated he isn’t.

As for Lewis’s hypothetical upside, how many years are we going to talk about that before acknowledging that he’s showed us who he is already? If they can’t trade him, DFA him and let both him and the Twins move on.

Theres 1%> Keaschall will ever play at 1B. 

As mentioned yesterday if the Cards actually would be open to trading Burleson, who's in Y2 of arb, can you attach Lewis, w/Zebby, ERod, and a lower level Top 30 guy? The (oh please lord) new owner, who may want to make a splash move, or Tom will have to decide if Burleson is eventually a $30+ AAV type player? And if he is are you OK if he regresses to what he was, which was closer to Josh Bell? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

To me, money is not the issue. Neither arbitration amount is that onerous. The question is - do you want the player?  I would probably bring Lewis back but only with the caveat that he earns playing time and might end up as a utility player. Larnach shouldn’t play in the field but I want to shoot higher if I’m going to have a full time DH. It’s complicated by the fact that EmRod has a substantial chance of being a bust and has no options. If he thrives we have no use for Larnach; if he busts Larnachs OPS+ of 121 looks pretty good as a safety net. 

This, and it applies to both players. Larnach is a problem to have if EmRod and to a lesser extent Roden are healthy and showing promise. Lewis "clogs up" the infield if Houston is ready to take over SS or 2B, or we trade for a 2B, and need 1B for Clemens because we don't want him to be a super utility. On the other hand, if what we saw in the small 50 AB tryout we gave to EMRod is who he really is and Roden is the guy he was in 2025 and not the guy he showed in his 100 AB tryout in 2026, it sure would be nice to have Laranach around. 

In other words, there are a lot of moving pieces here. Both Lewis and Larnach could have value on the roster or be completely redundant. That's true you before you consider who we might get in a trade or trade away, which adds even more uncertainty. That's why you don't make a decision now or at some arbitrary deadline like the tender deadline. You grow some cojones and wait on that decision until you have to make it because the circumstances are likely to change in a way that could impact that decision. Tender them both, come to terms with them both if you have to. Try to trade them from the day after the World Series ends until the last day of Spring Training if you have to wait that long. The only way you lose that bet is if you have players for their positions that you like better and you can't get anything in a trade for one or both, and I mean not even a decent AA player or high upside A ball lottery ticket. You go in with a competitive mindset and that you lose one or both guys if you have better players even if you have to eat their salary. It's a $5 million or $6 million bet per player. I think it's worth making that bet given the cost of player acquisition and development. The conservative cost certain approach would be to try to trade them before the tender deadline and then nontender them if you can't get a return. That's a lousy bet. Pay the money and take your chances. Go big or go home, don't hide your checkbook when it's time to take some risk to make some money. You can't reach your ceiling if you don't jump so grab your balls and jump for a change.

[Linus]

34 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

This, and it applies to both players. Larnach is a problem to have if EmRod and to a lesser extent Roden are healthy and showing promise. Lewis "clogs up" the infield if Houston is ready to take over SS or 2B, or we trade for a 2B, and need 1B for Clemens because we don't want him to be a super utility. On the other hand, if what we saw in the small 50 AB tryout we gave to EMRod is who he really is and Roden is the guy he was in 2025 and not the guy he showed in his 100 AB tryout in 2026, it sure would be nice to have Laranach around. 

In other words, there are a lot of moving pieces here. Both Lewis and Larnach could have value on the roster or be completely redundant. That's true you before you consider who we might get in a trade or trade away, which adds even more uncertainty. That's why you don't make a decision now or at some arbitrary deadline like the tender deadline. You grow some cojones and wait on that decision until you have to make it because the circumstances are likely to change in a way that could impact that decision. Tender them both, come to terms with them both if you have to. Try to trade them from the day after the World Series ends until the last day of Spring Training if you have to wait that long. The only way you lose that bet is if you have players for their positions that you like better and you can't get anything in a trade for one or both, and I mean not even a decent AA player or high upside A ball lottery ticket. You go in with a competitive mindset and that you lose one or both guys if you have better players even if you have to eat their salary. It's a $5 million or $6 million bet per player. I think it's worth making that bet given the cost of player acquisition and development. The conservative cost certain approach would be to try to trade them before the tender deadline and then nontender them if you can't get a return. That's a lousy bet. Pay the money and take your chances. Go big or go home, don't hide your checkbook when it's time to take some risk to make some money. You can't reach your ceiling if you don't jump so grab your balls and jump for a change.

I really agree with your “lots of moving pieces” description. It’s kind of been that way for the last several years which is why this concerns me some.