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Posted

Ryan Jeffers has spent his entire professional career in the Twins organization, dating back to Minnesota selecting him in the second round of the 2018 MLB Draft. After nearly a decade with the organization, though, the veteran catcher could be approaching the end of his time in Minnesota.

Jeffers is not closing the door on a return. In fact, he made it clear that he would welcome the opportunity to stay with the only organization he has known. At the same time, he wants to experience free agency and find out what opportunities exist beyond Minnesota.

“I’ve worked too hard to corner myself into one team or two teams,” Jeffers said Sunday, via The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. “I love the idea of a reunion. I also love the idea of going out there and seeing what else is out there.”

There should be plenty of interest. Jeffers enters the offseason as arguably the top catcher on the free-agent market and one of the better offensive players available at the position. Since his breakout 2023 season, he has posted a 119 wRC+ across 1,632 plate appearances. That ranks eighth among catchers during that stretch.

His 2026 season was particularly encouraging considering the circumstances. A hamate fracture suffered in May cost Jeffers roughly two months and limited him to 92 games. Despite the lost time, he hit .256/.353/.461 with 14 home runs in 368 plate appearances.

More importantly, several underlying numbers moved in the right direction. Jeffers posted career-best strikeout and walk rates, striking out in just 17.9% of his plate appearances while walking 12.5% of the time. His 128 wRC+ means he was 28% better than the league-average hitter, while the average MLB catcher finished at just 91.

The defensive questions remain. Jeffers has generally been a below-average defensive catcher, and 2026 followed that trend. He caught only 10.6% of potential base stealers and ranked in the 37th percentile as a pitch framer. He performed well with ABS challenges, finishing 12th among 107 catchers in Overturns Vs. Expected.

Now the Twins must decide whether Jeffers is worth a $23.1 million qualifying offer. The decision will come shortly after the World Series, and Hayes reports Jeffers is unlikely to accept it.

That could leave Minnesota with Victor Caratini as its most experienced catcher heading into 2027. Vahn Lackey, the third overall pick in the 2026 draft, represents the organization's long-term answer, but he is probably still a couple of years away. If Jeffers leaves, the Twins could look for a short-term veteran through free agency or trade. Several experienced catchers, including Tyler Stephenson, Austin Hedges, Jonah Heim, James McCann and former Twin Christian Vázquez, could be available.

For now, Jeffers is keeping both possibilities open. After spending his entire career in Minnesota, he has earned the opportunity to see what the rest of baseball thinks he is worth.

 


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Posted

This is the biggest question of the offseason.  Are the Twins willing to offer the qualifying offer, or a significant extension?  Then if its offered does Jeffers turn it down.   It is clear they view Jackson as a 3rd catcher and not a true backup catcher on the big league team.   Jackson will be hitting free agency in the minor leagues - however all in all the Twins treated him pretty well so I would not be surprised at all if he were to sign a minor league deal with the Twins and maybe a slightly lower rate than last year.    So if no Jeffers who will be the other Catcher?  

Posted
25 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

This is the biggest question of the offseason.  Are the Twins willing to offer the qualifying offer, or a significant extension?  Then if its offered does Jeffers turn it down.   It is clear they view Jackson as a 3rd catcher and not a true backup catcher on the big league team.   Jackson will be hitting free agency in the minor leagues - however all in all the Twins treated him pretty well so I would not be surprised at all if he were to sign a minor league deal with the Twins and maybe a slightly lower rate than last year.    So if no Jeffers who will be the other Catcher?  

Based on the quotes I saw from the end of the season press conference, Tom Pohlad has given Zoll the green light to extend a QO to Jeffers.  It's now up to Zoll to decide if the late season struggles muddy those waters a bit.  I still think it's prudent to extend a QO.   

Posted

Jeffer's value for the Twins was trading him @ last year's deadline rather than resigning him long term or a QO. He is over priced for a rebuilding small market team. Twins need to shop @ the value menu not @ Dayton's.

Posted
50 minutes ago, Chembry said:

Based on the quotes I saw from the end of the season press conference, Tom Pohlad has given Zoll the green light to extend a QO to Jeffers.  It's now up to Zoll to decide if the late season struggles muddy those waters a bit.  I still think it's prudent to extend a QO.   

I think it's prudent but I also don't believe he will accept it. 

I also think it's prudent to make a strong 3 or 4 year offer to him. I view him as a premium option at his position and those are exactly the types of players that a team that wants to be a contender should target. We have lots of cheap guys on our 2027 roster. We can afford to splurge for Jeffers.

But at the end of the day, the Twins don't really have the final say. Jeffers does. I hope he's back, but I feel like the realistic chances of that are about 20%

Posted

I currently would guess 90% chance we give him the QO and 80% chance he turns it down.  He was producing at a 5 WAR pace this year, 4 years of being above-average and will still be 29 on opening day.  Realmuto got 3/45 last offseason coming off a slightly worse 3 year span and being 4 years older at the time of FA.

Posted
2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Jeffer's value for the Twins was trading him @ last year's deadline rather than resigning him long term or a QO. He is over priced for a rebuilding small market team. Twins need to shop @ the value menu not @ Dayton's.

You hit the Target dead center.

Posted

Jeffers has certainly earned the right to explore his options. It will be the only time he can cash in... 

I will be interested to see the contract projections from Fangraphs and MLBTR. Right now I'm assuming 4 years is the minimum, and probably 5 years for the winning bid. If Tom P is hell bent on meaningfully investing in the team, will he go 5 years for Jeffers?

Posted
3 hours ago, Chembry said:

Based on the quotes I saw from the end of the season press conference, Tom Pohlad has given Zoll the green light to extend a QO to Jeffers.  It's now up to Zoll to decide if the late season struggles muddy those waters a bit.  I still think it's prudent to extend a QO.   

I read that too. I'd go a step further and suggest that means they've already decided to extend the QO. In the context of what they were trying to communicate in the press conference, I don't think they'd put themselves in the position of Tom saying, "Yeah, you can do it if you want to," and then having Zoll later say, "Nah, I don't want to." If the plan is not to make the offer, I think they would have said less on Monday. 

But hey, I'm not in the meetings and I'm not staying at a Holiday Inn until Saturday. 

Posted
25 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Jeffers has certainly earned the right to explore his options. It will be the only time he can cash in... 

I will be interested to see the contract projections from Fangraphs and MLBTR. Right now I'm assuming 4 years is the minimum, and probably 5 years for the winning bid. If Tom P is hell bent on meaningfully investing in the team, will he go 5 years for Jeffers?

If so, and I'm OK with that, the plan has to be to move him to first base in 2 years or so....

Posted
7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If so, and I'm OK with that, the plan has to be to move him to first base in 2 years or so....

The nice thing about doing it with catcher is that it can be done in a gradual way. You can go from being the guy who gets 2/3 of the catcher starts one year and then be the 1/3 guy the next year while getting another 80-90 starts at 1B/DH, followed by being the full-time 1B. 

Posted

Offer him BOTH the QO and a $50M, 3 year deal to re-sign.  That way he is guaranteed to either play under the QO or return the highest level comp pick.

Community Moderator
Posted
30 minutes ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

4 years / $65 - $75M should keep him here. Get it done. 

If not, sign Tyler Stephenson. 

That won't keep him here.  He's going to shatter the AAV on the catching market because there are next to no good free agents this year and the CBA is going away in December so the teams that want to get a competitive advantage before it does are going to spend like drunken sailors.

And I'm on board with the Twins paying way more to keep him.

Posted

I would take the risk and tender Jeffers. 

If we lose him we are compensated.

If he signs the tender and stays it's expensive but he fills the gap for a year. 

If he can't find a good deal maybe we can get him for a more reasonable 2 year contract. 

But if we don't tender Jeffers and he can't find what he wants in the open market (which is unlikely) maybe we still get the 2 year deal. 

Posted
4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

That won't keep him here.  He's going to shatter the AAV on the catching market because there are next to no good free agents this year and the CBA is going away in December so the teams that want to get a competitive advantage before it does are going to spend like drunken sailors.

And I'm on board with the Twins paying way more to keep him.

Whatever it takes, get it done. 

Posted
On 9/30/2026 at 12:57 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Jeffers has certainly earned the right to explore his options. It will be the only time he can cash in... 

I will be interested to see the contract projections from Fangraphs and MLBTR. Right now I'm assuming 4 years is the minimum, and probably 5 years for the winning bid. If Tom P is hell bent on meaningfully investing in the team, will he go 5 years for Jeffers?

MLBTR has said in chat sessions that Jeffers should land in the neighborhood of $17-19M/yr as an AAV.  If I am recalling correctly from a chat a few weeks ago, one writer made a prediction of 4/$72M.    

Posted
53 minutes ago, Chembry said:

MLBTR has said in chat sessions that Jeffers should land in the neighborhood of $17-19M/yr as an AAV.  If I am recalling correctly from a chat a few weeks ago, one writer made a prediction of 4/$72M.    

What do they predict for Arraez?

Posted
On 9/30/2026 at 11:35 AM, IndianaTwin said:

The nice thing about doing it with catcher is that it can be done in a gradual way. You can go from being the guy who gets 2/3 of the catcher starts one year and then be the 1/3 guy the next year while getting another 80-90 starts at 1B/DH, followed by being the full-time 1B. 

Signing Caratini as a free agent to fill this transitional role, with Lackey or Tinney or Tait taking over in 2028 or 2029, was never as good a plan as this one.

Paying big bucks for a mediocre catcher, or even bigger bucks for a difference maker at the plate, is simply the Failure Tax for not having developed a good one since, well, drafting Jeffers himself in 2018.

Posted

Context matters in any consideration of free agent contracts offered. What is the budget? What are the teams needs?

It makes some sense to offer Ryan Jeffers a qualifying offer, which I would expect him to turn down. If the Twins run a budget in the neighborhood of $170 million. An offer of 3/$51+M seems fair. Other teams may offer more in years and also a greater AAV. Many posters want Jeffers back no matter the cost or other needs. Catching is a need, but so is 1B, 2B, SP, and RP. Decisions will come down to dollars available.

Ryan Jeffers is a good hitting catcher, no doubt for me. He is not, however, a very good defensive catcher. Looking at his skill sets objectively, Jeffers is not up to standard at either blocking or throwing. His general athleticism behind the plate leaves something to be desired, which combined with his scooping issues means he would not be much of a first baseman either.

The Twins created their own problems at catching by largely ignoring the need for too long. Recently, the organization has both traded for and drafted catchers. The future looks promising if Vahn Lackey and others can successfully transition to MLB by 2028 or 2029. The pitching staff absolutely needs a good glove.

There will be opportunities and options for the Twins this offseason to acquire a catcher. Whether that transaction is via trade or free agency, the primary need behind the plate is a very good glove and a decent arm. Defense matters. Who will that be? No idea but everyone is free to throw out whatever ideas pop into their heads. St. Louis may be a club to discuss a trade. While I doubt the Cardinals will listen on Leo Bernal, it doesn't hurt to offer something (Matthews or Kremer plus R. Lewis, and E. Tait). 

Maybe Jeffers returns but the Twins need to upgrade the defense and pitching. There will also be a chance to sign one bat (B. Lowe, J. Bauers, T. France). The Twins have mostly sat on their hands in the offseason in the past several years. Will things change?

Posted
41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

What do they predict for Arraez?

I haven't seen any predictions for Arraez yet.  I want to say last year, MLBTR predicted 2/$24M for Arraez and he ended up on a 1yr/$12M.  

Posted
12 hours ago, Linus said:

What is he supposed to say?

I too would be willing to sign with the Twins if the Yankees don't back up a dump truck full of money to my house.

Vet minimum would be fine.  Happy to get on-again, off-again waived as the third catcher if need be.  

Posted
On 9/30/2026 at 10:57 AM, Vanimal46 said:

Jeffers has certainly earned the right to explore his options. It will be the only time he can cash in... 

I will be interested to see the contract projections from Fangraphs and MLBTR. Right now I'm assuming 4 years is the minimum, and probably 5 years for the winning bid. If Tom P is hell bent on meaningfully investing in the team, will he go 5 years for Jeffers?

The problem here is we do NOT need Jeffers in years 3-4-5!  By that time, Lackey will be busting down the door (and if he moves fast, maybe even next year, but C is a notoriously long learning cycle!).  The only possible need is for 2 years, 3 max.  So, there is a part of me that says give him the QO, he takes it and sticks around another year .... and Lackey comes up some time in '28.  I'd save those $$ to spend on pitching!!

Posted
On 9/30/2026 at 10:04 AM, PuckettPond said:

Jeffer's value for the Twins was trading him @ last year's deadline rather than resigning him long term or a QO. He is over priced for a rebuilding small market team. Twins need to shop @ the value menu not @ Dayton's.

It was a missed opportunity, but if they weren’t going to complete the sell off last offseason, I did enjoy watching Jeffers far more than I would have watching Caratini and Jackson down the stretch

Posted
12 hours ago, JADBP said:

The problem here is we do NOT need Jeffers in years 3-4-5!  By that time, Lackey will be busting down the door (and if he moves fast, maybe even next year, but C is a notoriously long learning cycle!).  The only possible need is for 2 years, 3 max.  So, there is a part of me that says give him the QO, he takes it and sticks around another year .... and Lackey comes up some time in '28.  I'd save those $$ to spend on pitching!!

Move him to first when there are two other catchers. 

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