Did the Twins Trade Away Their 2026 Playoff Spot?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of John Jones, Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The 2026 Minnesota Twins were not supposed to be contenders. Heading into the season, expectations were low, and few people expected them to spend most of the year hanging around the American League playoff picture. Yet that is exactly what happened.

The Twins were surprisingly in the playoff mix for roughly 80% of the season, were buyers at the trade deadline and even occupied a playoff spot midway through August. They were not mathematically eliminated until the middle of September. A big reason they remained relevant for so long was the weakness of the American League, but that should not take away from the fact that they had an opportunity in front of them. The Twins were playing meaningful baseball deep into the season, and the playoff spot was there for the taking.

Unfortunately, the Twins could not take advantage of it. Despite becoming buyers at the trade deadline, Minnesota went on to become one of the worst teams in baseball over the final stretch of the season. The frustrating part is that this was not a roster that was completely incapable of competing. The Twins will likely finish the season with the second-most runs scored in the American League. Their starting rotation, despite its flaws, was not among the worst in baseball. The starters will finish 18th in MLB in fWAR and 14th in xERA. The defense was certainly a problem, but when looking at what ultimately kept the Twins from taking advantage of such a wide-open playing field, the bullpen stands out.

The Twins bullpen was one of the worst in baseball for much of the season and will finish 26th in MLB in ERA. It also had the second-highest walk rate in baseball. Those numbers actually include the improvements Minnesota made at the trade deadline by acquiring A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman, meaning the full-season numbers make the bullpen look better than it was for much of the first half.

Before the deadline, the Twins had the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball. It took the front office most of the season to figure out what it wanted its bullpen to look like, from acquiring Yoendrys Gomez early in the season to turning Andrew Morris into a one-inning reliever in May and eventually adding Hoffman and Minter at the deadline. By the end, the Twins had finally put together some legitimate pieces, but all of that work still resulted in a bullpen that ranked near the bottom of the league in ERA, and well below average in metrics like FIP, WAR and WPA.

That makes it difficult not to think about two star relievers who could have been in that bullpen all along.

At last year's trade deadline, the Twins traded away their three best relievers in Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland. Jax has since transitioned into a starting role, so his situation is a little different. Duran and Varland, however, continued in the roles they had with Minnesota and turned in two of the best relief seasons in baseball. Duran was spectacular for the Phillies, posting Win Probability Added. He became exactly the type of high-leverage weapon Philadelphia hoped it was acquiring when it traded for him.

Varland was even better. After showing flashes with the Twins, primarily in the bullpen, Varland took his career to another level after settling into a full-time relief role with Toronto. He posted a 1.29 ERA, trailing only Mason Miller for the best mark among MLB relievers. He was worth 3.1 fWAR and posted a 3.57 WPA, making him one of the most valuable relievers in baseball. Put the two seasons together and Duran and Varland were worth nearly six fWAR in 2026.

That is an especially significant number when looking at the Twins' bullpen because Minnesota spent a large portion of the season relying on replacement-level players to fill innings. This bullpen needed significant help, while those two departed relievers combined to provide nearly six fWAR for other teams. Simply replacing some of the innings Minnesota gave to replacement-level relievers with Duran and Varland would have dramatically changed the quality of the bullpen.

There is also a much bigger domino effect to consider. If Duran and Varland had been in Minnesota from the beginning of the season, the Twins certainly would not have blown as many games early in the year. A better bullpen would have meant a better record, which would have meant higher playoff odds at the trade deadline. Higher playoff odds could have led the front office to be more aggressive in July, potentially resulting in an even stronger roster for the final two months of the season.

Instead of spending much of the year trying to figure out the bullpen, Minnesota could have spent those resources addressing other weaknesses. There is no way to know exactly how those alternate decisions would have played out, but the point is that the impact of keeping Duran and Varland would not have been limited to the innings they personally pitched.

The other side of the equation is what the Twins actually received for the two relievers. Mick Abel, acquired in the Duran trade, barely had an opportunity to contribute before an injury ended his season. Alan Roden and Kendry Rojas, acquired in the Varland trade, also did not make a meaningful impact on the Twins' 2026 season.

That does not mean those players cannot become important pieces for Minnesota in the future, and it would obviously be unfair to evaluate prospects solely on what they did in the first year after the trade. But it does make the opportunity cost of the trades much easier to see. The Twins gave up two relievers who became two of the best in baseball, and the players they received did not help them win games during a season in which the team was surprisingly close to the playoffs.

That is the important distinction here. Trading Duran and Varland was much easier to justify if the Twins were convinced they were heading into a lost season and needed to prioritize the future. Both players were relatively inexpensive, had multiple years of team control remaining and had significant trade value. If the Twins had spent 2026 buried in the standings, nobody would be looking at these trades and wondering how many games they cost the team. Trading established relievers for promising prospects makes sense when a team is rebuilding.

But the Twins insisted they were not rebuilding, and the 2026 season more or less proved that out. They were in the playoff race. They were buyers at the trade deadline. They were sitting in a playoff spot in August. They remained alive until September, despite having one of the worst bullpens in baseball. That is what makes the decision so much harder to swallow in hindsight. 

There is obviously no way to say that Duran and Varland would have guaranteed a playoff spot. Baseball does not work that cleanly, and there are too many variables involved to simply add their WAR to the Twins' win total and declare an alternate result. But it is difficult to look at the season the Twins just had and argue that those two players would not have made a significant difference.

The offense was good enough. The starting pitching was good enough to keep the team competitive. The American League was vulnerable all season. The Twins remained in contention despite their bullpen being one of the biggest weaknesses on the roster.

Maybe the Twins still would have fallen short with Duran and Varland. Maybe other weaknesses would have caught up with them. But considering how long they remained in the playoff race with a terrible bullpen, it is difficult not to wonder what would have happened if two of the best relievers in baseball had still been wearing Minnesota uniforms.

So, what do you think? If the Twins had kept Jhoan Duran and Louis Varland instead of trading them last season, would Minnesota have made the playoffs in 2026? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Patzky]

They certainly would have helped. But considering the trade deadline as a whole we wouldn't have had Taj Bradley. We sure could have used Ty France! Who knew..

 

 

[FlyingFinn]

But without Taj Bradley, would our starters have been good enough to make the playoffs? And, if we really had an internal cap, keeping Duran probably means we don't have enough money for Bell. I just don't think standing pat would have made us good enough to make the playoffs.

[DJL44]

WAR overrates relievers by including a leverage index to their innings. If the Twins had kept both, they would have had to choose which one received the leverage opportunities. Combined they would have only been able to produce 5 WAR. Then you need to subtract the 1 WAR contribution by Rojas and Roden. That could have given them a solid 80-win season while finishing out of the playoffs in 3rd place. Is that the goal?

[Brandon27]

I blame the front office decision not build on the playoff win they could had added to that roster make a deeper run following and not do a fire sale years later 

 

[NYCTK]

The 2025 Twins sucked and were right to trade away their assets in the bullpen to try to rebuild a competent team. 

The 2026 Twins still sucked and should have traded away more assets before the season to get their house in order for 2027. 

Looking back on solid decision making and questioning it because you ONLY finished 7 games back is just a fool's errand. 

Fun fact: The 2026 Twins bullpen was the 19th best in the bigs in Win Percentage Added. Not great! But also not a disaster. In 2025, before trading away their assets, they were 25th.

The bullpen has been more successful this season than last season, with all those studs. 

[Mike Sixel]

What a ridiculous take. 

[Vanimal46]

We still would have started the season with our lousy IF defense that cost us several games as well. 

[old nurse]

Did the back end of the bullpen lose them 7 games with 2 of those 7 being against the White Sox. Would Varlund be as good without whatever knowledge Toronto passed on to him? 

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The 2025 Twins sucked and were right to trade away their assets in the bullpen to try to rebuild a competent team. 

The 2026 Twins still sucked and should have traded away more assets before the season to get their house in order for 2027. 

Looking back on solid decision making and questioning it because you ONLY finished 7 games back is just a fool's errand. 

Fun fact: The 2026 Twins bullpen was the 19th best in the bigs in Win Percentage Added. Not great! But also not a disaster. In 2025, before trading away their assets, they were 25th.

The bullpen has been more successful this season than last season, with all those studs. 

It is hard for a bullpen pitcher when the team is behind or leading by a large margin to have WPA+. It is a statistic of opportunity. . 

[mikelink45]

I would take back Duran and Varland any day.  This era is about BP not SP.  

[LastOnePicked]

I see today is "Here's Some Salt for Your Wounds" Day at TD.

Kidding. It's certainly worth exploring. I mean, the Twins of the early 2000's were a David Ortiz away from a championship run. It could be that the Twins on the mid 2020's might be a Louis Varland away from the playoffs.

All the more reason why the 2026 Twins desperately needed to pick a lane. Anyone who thinks that last year's deadline was just shedding a few expiring free agent contracts is conveniently forgetting these trades. Everything pointed to an organizational rebuild, until Tom Pohlad's arrival and coronation.

That half-measure perhaps didn't hurt the team that much this year. In fact, keeping Jeffers, Buxton and Ryan may have gained them 2-3 more wins than they would have had. But the real pain from this decision will be felt in the years ahead, when they'll need additional young contributors or high-end trade chips, and they just won't be in the cupboard.

[Historyking88]

No they didn’t. They were expected to be bad even if they didn’t trade Duran or Varland. No one expected the latter to become one of the best relievers in baseball and I do believe the Duran trade will begin to pay off next year with Tait and Abel taking steps forward. And they didn’t have Ryan or Buxton(their 2 best players) for chunks of the season. 

[MeleMouth]

Varland and Duran would definitely have helped the Twins make the playoffs this year, but then what?

Collectively, Varland and Duran would not have been as good as they were apart, because much of their WAR overlaps.

Add Varland and Duran to the present roster and they still lose in the first round.

Add Varland, Duran, healthy Lopez, healthy Ryan, healthy Buxton, first half Larnach, and first half Jeffers, and maybe they have a chance in the first round, but that's a lot of "adds," which means the likelihood of all of it happening is pretty small, and their chances of advancing beyond the first round is even smaller.

Have a roster with that set of "adds" and there would be less chance of Culpepper or Jenkins being on the roster, much less ERod, which sets back next year, when a bunch of the "adds" would be gone or leaving soon anyway.

The team cast its lot into rebuilding when they didn't bring Sonny Gray back and didn't add the next year. They just denied it to themselves for three years of mediocre baseball. 

Edit: Also, the answer to your "what if" asking whether the Twins would have been more aggressive at the trade deadline this year is "probably not." Of the top players traded, probably the only one who would have helped the Twins was Skubal, and the Tigers wouldn't have traded him to the Twins and the Twins would not have outbid the Dodgers. They wouldn't have had the guts to trade for Peralta, and Rutschman would have been duplicative of Jeffers. Maybe they would have gone for Arraez, who has basically been bad since the trade deadline?

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Yes. With how many games the BP lost after having a lead, we'd have won atleast 6-10 more games minimum. 

[HerbieFan]

One word?  Yes.

[sweetmusicviola16]

In answer to the question of did the Twins trade away there PO spot in 2026 with the trades of Duran and Varland, the answer is nobody knows. We can conjecture. Would these two guys have enhanced the chances of making the 2026 PO's? Sure they would have. I think the greater question to be asked though is why didn't the Twins continue with the rebuild that they started in July of 2025? They squandered the value of Ryan, big-time. And Lopez and Jeffers and possibly even Buxton. The reported package for Ryan alone from Boston would have set this team ahead 3 steps instead of it running in place, All so we could be a 76 or 77 win team in 2026. I don't understand this philosophy or that of fans that gladly accept a 76 or 77 win team. From my perspective the most good that has come out of 2026 is finally seeing what we have in Cullpepper, Jenkins and Rodriguez. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I have heard suggestions that the Twins try to make a RP FA splash this offseason. Guess what they already have made their big FA signing. Who is that? Hoffman. I hope he does well in 2027. But this is the guy we get in FA. Also, I would have traded Gomez at this years deadline too. It was nice pretending but when you wake up it's time to face reality. 

[ewen21]

Even if we had the best bullpen in baseball this team would not have gotten out of the first round.  Our offense exceeded expectations but was medium to slightly above average.  Our starting pitching sucked, or defense was below average.

Even with Varland and Duran doing what they did the rest of the team simply was not good enough to mix it up in the playoffs (assuming they'd even make up the games get in having these two)

[TheLeviathan]

No, but we may have traded away a playoff spot in 2028, 2029, etc. by choosing to buy this season.

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[rdehring]

Hindsight is always 20/20.  Add me to those above who believe you can't cherry-pick which trades they shouldn't have done.  Also, trades for prospects cannot be judged one year after the trade.

[weitz41]

To follow the title. If I had bought that lottery ticket sooner...NO wait later!  would I have won. If I had bought 1000 shares of (pick one) Microsoft in 1990, would I own the Twins?

And no, I don't remember when Microsoft went public...This is just to keep the vultures at bay.