Should Derek Shelton Return as Manager of the Twins in 2027?

[Peter Labuza]

Image courtesy of Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

As the Twins close out another disappointing season (though, at least, one that raised expectations and began cementing the cornerstones for the next generation), there will be plenty of blame to go around. As the team decides on its future, there's one gigantic question they will have to answer: Should manager Derek Shelton return for a second year?

The Twins changed operations over the offseason at the levels of ownership (sort of), general manager, and practically half the roster, in addition to Shelton replacing former skipper Rocco Baldelli. Originally perceived as a placeholder choice by Derek Falvey to provide stability for a rebuilding year, Shelton kept a steady hand on the helm as the team undertook significant roster changes within the season. He's made a case to return for a second season. Let's evaluate that case.

Shelton did sign a standard multi-year deal, but that has never guaranteed a manager's return. If Jeremy Zoll wants to put his own preferred pick in place—there are names like Alex Cora and Rob Thomson out there, not to mention Albert Pujols making a case, but it's just as likely that Zoll would prefer to install a less famous person he knows well—he should have the power to do so.

As any intelligent baseball fan knows, evaluating managers is a tricky business. Front offices shape the roster and spearhead game-planning, which often affects the set of choices a manager has even when writing out the lineup card or making moves within a game. For example, Shelton has relied less on pinch-hitting than his predecessor (usually) did. During the 2023 season, Baldelli's tactics led to 397 plate appearances by players who did not start that game. That number fell to 356 in 2024, then plummeted to 236 last season. Under Shelton, there have been just 211 plate appearances for substitutes so far. He's gone to the bench much less often, but Baldelli had also bent in that direction before departing the job. A weak bench naturally begets a greater reliance on one's starters; it's no surprise that Shelton hasn't wanted to use Alex Jackson or Ryan Kreidler especially aggressively.

That influence from front offices is a confounding factor in judging skippers. So is the often errant public perception that shapes narratives around them. Noisy online fans often referred to Baldelli’s “quick hook" with starters, but Shelton has run his rotation much as the previous skipper did—and that’s despite more rookie pitchers who could use the slack, and a pretty atrocious bullpen who could not be trusted. All told, the two managers differ little in how often they use pinch-hitters and in how much of their pitching staff's workload lands on their starters.

	Rocco Baldelli (Average Between 2019 and 2025)	Derek Shelton (2026)
Pinch Hitting %	4.3%	3.8%
Starter IP %	57.8%	59.4%

A better sign of unique improvement for a manager comes in the form of player development. A lot of ideas might come from the front office, but it’s often left to the coaches to get those ideas into the players. Here, Shelton has done well, after it seemed an entire generation had gone bust. Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis emerged from their early slumps. Josh Bell looked cooked early in the season, but has gotten back on track with an .818 OPS since the start of June. Brooks Lee naturally slid from shortstop to third base and currently leads the team in Win Probability Added. Andrew Morris went from a shaky starter to a solid set-up man. Kody Clemens has 25 home runs. 

Perhaps the only thing a manager can really do is manage the vibes. Defining that success depends on how the players feel, rather than on any fan perception. From reporting, Baldelli was certainly laid-back, but Shelton isn’t exactly a drill sergeant. As he told the media in a recent scrum, “One of the things I'm most proud of with the culture of our group is [that] I really don't have to say much to them. They handle themselves extremely well." That hasn’t led to any complaints—Zoll brought in veterans like Bell and Taylor Rogers to assist the young talent—but a different tack will be needed next season, as the team gets much, much younger. Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins are already in the mix. Next year, another handful of rookies could replace departing veterans.

FanGraphs projected the Twins for 77 wins for the season. With just under two dozen to go, they are likely to end up at… 77 or so wins. That’s not a successful season, but it’s hard to say Shelton did anything to cause whatever failure one ascribes to the club. The schizophrenic feeling of the season—a running problem for this team for multiple years now—feels impossible to solve. Could a different manager break that spell?

If the Twins bring back Shelton, I won’t be surprised or aggrieved. As long as Shelton stops yelling at robots, I don’t think he did much wrong that cannot be placed at the feet of the front office.

But there is always an opportunity cost. As the Twins reshape for a new generation, the club could transform the feeling in and outside the clubhouse. The organization's churn has created some momentum; it might be wise to sustain that by continuing to make changes.

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[Patzky]

99 problems and Shelton ain't one of them.

[FlyingFinn]

The team exceeded my expectations and Shelton will be back next year.

[PuckettPond]

Makes no sense blaming him. Just like blaming him for not rowing straight with 1 arm tied behind his back. Twins problems are self induced. Fans who live in fantasy land just come back to reality. The team is showing us who they are. Believe them.

[HarmonK03]

Zoll brought in veterans like Bell and Taylor Rogers to assist the young talent

These signings were made when Falvey was still here, so I am not sure how Zoll gets complete credit, he might have worked on them with Falvey but he was not in charge.

As for Shelton, I am not convinced he is the long term answer.  He seems to handle the clubhouse better and definitely put together a better coaching staff.  I don't think he is great at managing the roster and in game decisions.

It will really come down to is Zoll coming back if not, Shelton probably has one more year similar to Molitor being kept after one year when Falvey was hired. Yes Molitor lasted two years because he exceeded expectations Falvey's first year and he couldn't reasonably move on from him.

[PatPfund]

No. Just no. And really? Is there an MLB club in history that created momentum by firing the manager every year even if they did a solid job? (That would be another 'no'.)

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Shelton did the best with the roster he was given. He seemed to get the best out of his players. If there is a new GM and new ownership in the future we could see a change but as of now he should get another year or two at minimum. 

[MeleMouth]

I don't have a big problem with Shelton. This team's record is not his fault and maybe a tiny bit to his credit.

However, for years the Twins have been an "old friends" home, where they overvalued continuity and familiarity with the organization. They could really use a shake-up with some clashes of opinions. 

Now, I don't think that'll happen, because that's never how Pohlads run their businesses, and too much clashing can be an even bigger problem - see Vikings "Triangle of Authority" - but the Twins need someone of authority who can come in and tell them the truth of what they might be doing wrong, including to the owner, without worrying too much about whether people don't want to hear it. Maybe Joe Madden would fit that need.

[mikelink45]

Why would you fire him.  I need a really good explanation or it is just looking for a scapegoat. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 Can Zoll and let the new GM hire the manager they want?

I don’t think Managers do that much.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Lots of things have to happen. Are the Pohlads still owners? Is Zoll still GM? Is there a season to be had?

Generally I like Shelton. And I REALLY liked the additions of Hawkins and Sizemore to the coaching staff both feel like GREAT additions.

[HarmonK03]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lots of things have to happen. Are the Pohlads still owners? Is Zoll still GM? Is there a season to be had?

Generally I like Shelton. And I REALLY liked the additions of Hawkins and Sizemore to the coaching staff both feel like GREAT additions.

I think you can assume the Pohlads are still the owners, I keep seeing this on different threads.  Is this wishful thinking or are there reports out there that I missed saying they are exploring a sale.  I thought at the time they pulled the team off the market they said something to the effect that they weren't going anywhere.  I know things can change and they may not say anything but it seems like its going to be a couple of years at least before it is explored.

[thelanges5]

He’s probably not the long-term answer, but I’d like to see what he can do with a good roster. One with some athletic players and no 3rd catcher. 

[Saxophone Joe]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

And I REALLY liked the additions of Hawkins and Sizemore to the coaching staff both feel like GREAT additions.

Agreed. I won’t be surprised if Sizemore is a big-league manager within a couple years.

[William K Johnson]

At least he could see that Brooks Lee was better at 3rd than SS.   It never occurred to Baldelli to try it.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

I think you can assume the Pohlads are still the owners, I keep seeing this on different threads.  Is this wishful thinking or are there reports out there that I missed saying they are exploring a sale.  I thought at the time they pulled the team off the market they said something to the effect that they weren't going anywhere.  I know things can change and they may not say anything but it seems like its going to be a couple of years at least before it is explored.

It's more an educated guess. But 1) They did put the team up for sale and then retracted when offers came back, and 2) There is a cba ending in a few months with no tangible TV/streaming deal in sight. My guess forever has been, maybe Tom is truly up for owning the team ongoing, but none of the rest of the family is. So with that, once a cba is actually ratified AND they have a tv rights deal that is better than what they currently have, I HAVE to think that ONCE that happens, the value of the club will be higher than now. 

I HAVE to think the rest of the Pohlad's would welcome a sale of the club that is closer to the amount the Angels just got. But maybe Tom does want to stick it out. Who knows.,

Anyway, if Tom is here, my GUESS is that Shelton is here. IF a different ownership is in charge of the purse strings, then all bets are off. 

I'm mostly just hoping to not miss much or any of next season.

[Vanimal46]

I would much rather hire a different GM who can align with Shelton. I don’t think Zoll is the guy to lead us out of this mess. 

[HarmonK03]

11 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

At least he could see that Brooks Lee was better at 3rd than SS.   It never occurred to Baldelli to try it.

In fairness to Rocco, that was an organizational decision when they dumped Correa to move Lee to SS.  He was the top option that was ready to play there.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would much rather hire a different GM who can align with Shelton. I don’t think Zoll is the guy to lead us out of this mess. 

I can very much agree with you. I have trouble thinking specifically either the TYPE of gm I would want and/or what organization I would want them to come from. 

Do you have a favorite name and/or organization you would want to try and poach a new baseball leader from?

[C-Gangster]

Hire back Rocco we did him dirty.

[HarmonK03]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would much rather hire a different GM who can align with Shelton. I don’t think Zoll is the guy to lead us out of this mess. 

I understand where you are coming from, but it can create a weird dynamic and many times doesn't work.  Most guys want to win or lose with their guys not someone else's.  And I just don't know if there is anyone from Shelton's prior stints as coach that he has worked with that might be in favor of that sort of arrangement.

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can very much agree with you. I have trouble thinking specifically either the TYPE of gm I would want and/or what organization I would want them to come from. 

Do you have a favorite name and/or organization you would want to try and poach a new baseball leader from?

I would be no better than Jim Pohlad looking through media guides when he hired Derek Falvey… I would be very interested in someone from Milwaukee, Tampa, or St Louis’ FO. Maybe AJ Preller’s second hand person in San Diego who makes aggressive moves all the time. 

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea how to judge a manager for the most part.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Why would you fire him.  I need a really good explanation or it is just looking for a scapegoat. 

Shouldn’t be any scapegoats from the team , team played better than expectations under Shelton than previous manager …

scapegoats should be owners starting in 2023 for right sizing so they say and hit the road jack ( falvey ) …

I enjoyed the team more this year without Rocco and falvey …

[Cory Engelhardt]

29 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would be no better than Jim Pohlad looking through media guides when he hired Derek Falvey… I would be very interested in someone from Milwaukee, Tampa, or St Louis’ FO. Maybe AJ Preller’s second hand person in San Diego who makes aggressive moves all the time. 

Well, just a quick google search shows that Nick Krall (Cincinnati) Brian Cashman (obviously the Yankees) and former Astros GM Dana Brown are all pretty big name people who have either already been fired or their contract expires at the end of the year. 

Not advocating for any of them, but they all have experience with mlb clubs. Cashman I would HAVE to think wouldn't hate not dealing with New York media.

I'm sure there will be others after the season too.

 

[Linus]

Shelton is the least of their problems. 

[Wedman13]

Yes

[Hubie29]

He will be back. He fits the mold perfectly for this management. Probably a yes man, cheap and an insider. Until this organization gets serious about winning there will always be room for guys like "Shelty".

[DJL44]

I didn’t think he was anything special. I still don’t, though he exceeded my expectations. The team hasn’t quit on him, which is a point in his favor.

[HarmonK03]

10 minutes ago, Linus said:

Shelton is the least of their problems. 

But is he the best option, I am not saying if he is or isn't.  But at some point I want this team to shoot for excellence throughout the organization and not just settle.