Yoendrys Gómez Can’t Keep Getting Away With This

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Denny Medley - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Yoendrys Gómez has been one of the best additions the Minnesota Twins have made this season, and it's hard to argue with the results. Since the Twins acquired him in early May, Gómez has been nothing short of excellent. In 35 innings with Minnesota, the right-hander has posted a sparkling 1.80 ERA while becoming the team's most trusted option in the highest-leverage situations. He leads all Twins players with a 1.88 Win Probability Added (WPA) and has appeared in more high-leverage situations than any other reliever on the roster.

Gómez has firmly established himself as the Twins' closer, too. Even after Minnesota added Jeff Hoffman at the trade deadline, there has been no indication that the Twins intend to move Gómez out of the ninth inning. When the Twins have a lead to protect in the ninth, Gómez is still the guy, and considering how well he has pitched, it's easy to understand why.

But there are some reasons to pump the brakes on expecting Gómez to continue pitching at this level for the remainder of the season. Despite that 1.80 ERA with the Twins, Gómez's season-long ERA sits at 3.27, and his underlying numbers suggest that even that mark may be flattering. Gómez has a 5.05 expected ERA, and the enormous gap between his actual ERA and expected ERA is the 13th-largest difference in baseball, making him one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors by that measure.

One of the reasons for that discrepancy is that Gómez has been remarkably effective at getting outs despite allowing some solid contact. Gómez ranks in the bottom third of the league in both hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage, which isn't exactly the profile you want to see from a pitcher who is being relied upon to consistently shut down the best hitters in the biggest moments of games. His xFIP reflects that, as it is the sixth highest in all of baseball among relievers at 5.01, suggesting that his true skill level has been significantly worse than his results would indicate. xFIP attempts to strip away some of the luck involved in a pitcher's results by removing the impact of defense and normalizing home-run rates based on fly balls allowed. When a pitcher has a 1.80 ERA but an xFIP that ranks among the worst in baseball, it's probably worth paying attention.

Then there's the control, which might be the biggest concern. Gómez ranks in just the 11th percentile in walk percentage, and those free passes have gotten him into plenty of precarious situations. To his credit, he has been remarkably good at escaping them, stranding 79% of the runners who have reached base against him. The problem is that the Twins can't reasonably expect him to keep escaping those situations at that rate forever, especially with a strikeout rate that is solid, but nowhere near elite. Eventually, those walks are going to come back to bite him.

There have already been some cracks, too. Gómez took the loss in extra innings against the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and struggled again on Wednesday as he surrendered a home run against the Baltimore Orioles. More concerning is the recent walk problem, as Gómez has issued 10 walks over his last 12 innings. That's a lot of traffic for a pitcher who is being asked to navigate the highest-leverage situations on the roster.

None of this is meant to suggest that Gómez has been a bad acquisition. Quite the opposite. He has been a slam-dunk addition for the Twins and has provided tremendous value since arriving in Minnesota. But there's a difference between appreciating what Gómez has done and expecting him to continue doing it indefinitely, especially when so many of his underlying numbers suggest that a correction is coming.

The Twins should be prepared for that regression, and the good news is that they have given themselves a much better chance to withstand it. Minnesota was aggressive about adding bullpen help at the trade deadline, and the Twins now have multiple legitimate alternatives if Gómez's underlying numbers eventually catch up with his results. A.J. Minter, Jeff Hoffman and Andrew Morris are all capable of handling important innings, giving Minnesota options if Gómez needs to be moved out of the ninth inning at some point.

For now, though, the Twins have been firm about keeping Gómez in the closer role, and there's no reason to change that simply because his underlying numbers aren't pretty. He's earned the opportunity to keep pitching in those situations, but the Twins also shouldn't be surprised if things get a little bumpy down the stretch. Gómez has done an outstanding job getting himself out of trouble all season, but eventually the walks, hard contact and other underlying indicators are likely to catch up with him.

What do you think? Is Yoendrys Gómez due for a significant regression, or has he earned the benefit of the doubt and proven that he can continue to thrive as the Twins' closer down the stretch? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Patzky]

I want to have a lucky guy in my back pocket for the end of the game.

 

The good news is that there are a few other candidates should Gomez falter. And falter is relative.. he's demonstrated an ability to force the double play when needed. Morris and Minter seem locked in right now. Fundy has improved greatly. If a batter consistently lucks into bloop hits its part of the game.

The fact we're even having this conversation shows how far the bullpen has evolved since March.

 

[Over The Hill Again]

I’ll happily be on the positive side of the Luck Continuum for once this season. But thanks for showing the numbers that confirms what I’ve been watching; he gets the necessary outs but rarely is it “clean”. An awesome acquisition regardless, even if he turns into a pumpkin at some point. 

[mike8791]

Nice article!  His decline has been noticeable, as you note.  Logic says he is walking on thin ice and blown saves(and losses) are looming.  With the playoffs still in sight, how long is Shelty going to stick with him?  Loyalty is nice, but so are wins.

The big question is who would replace him?  Based on his track record before this year, Hoffman would seemingly be the choice, but he was replaced as the closer in Toronto and has continued(in a limited sample size) with the Twins to show an alarming tendency for BB.  Minter is a lefty specialist, but how effective would he be against RHers?  

The one guy who has been consistent has been Morris.  He would be my first choice, but with the deadline additions, would Shelty go with the rookie?  I would hope he's been seriously considering a move here.  The Twins have gone "all in" (for the Twins at least) to stay in the hunt.  A couple of costly pen meltdowns could doom their already slim chances.  How long he sticks with Gomez will go a long way to determining the team's chance to play in October.

[Trov]

Is he due for regression, most likely.  Has he been lucky with balls being caught that may not always get caught, most likely.  Does this mean he will start getting blown up over and over, no.  Sure he gave up a solo HR yesterday, that is the time you want him to give up the HR, when lead is 3.  

Sometimes closers are just good enough, that is good enough.  I point to Fernando Rodney, overall not a relief pitcher, outside of 1 great season, but pitched for 17 seasons had 327 saves, but a career ERA of 3.80, WHIP, 1.37, FIP 3.77 WPA of 4.4 for a career, many seasons being negative.  He was the type of person that if you had 3 run lead, he would give up 2, but if you had a 1 run lead he would let 2 guys on but get the save. 

I do not care if a guy gives up 2 runs and gets a save or gets a 3 up 3 down and gets the save, the end result is the same, you get a win. 

[AceBee]

Before the dominance of Duran, I remember our closers in the past always seemed to have edgy moments and traffic on the bases routinely. But I agree that Gomez doesn't instill the same confidence and a regression might be coming. Possibly why they traded for Hoffman but his outings so far have even poor confidence levels than Gomez. Any chances that Prielipp gets bumped in there once Ryan returns, as has been a heavy conjecture around?

[DJL44]

The closer role will limit damage. Once you give up the winning run the game is over. That makes it hard to give up a really big inning.

[Hrbeks Divot]

There is bound to be some regression. I’d like to see Shelty continue to deploy the bullpen as the situation calls for rather than strict rolls. I think bringing in Morris last night in the sixth is a good example. Mix and match with whatever the opponent’s lineup dictates.

[tony&rodney]

The bullpen has gone from being a nightmare to solid. While we can all see that Gomez is not a dominant closer, he has navigated through most situations which is a positive note. Can he continue? We don't know. I do know that great defense is often the difference as is a consistently solid offense. Right now, I'm more worried about the gloves and bats than the pitching. Gomez may be lucky but luck is a skill at times.

[mnfireman]

Jeff Reardon was the closer on the 1987 WS Champion team, had an ERA of 4.48 and allowed 14 HR to go with his 31 saves.

 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

I want to have a lucky guy in my back pocket for the end of the game.

 

The good news is that there are a few other candidates should Gomez falter. And falter is relative.. he's demonstrated an ability to force the double play when needed. Morris and Minter seem locked in right now. Fundy has improved greatly. If a batter consistently lucks into bloop hits its part of the game.

The fact we're even having this conversation shows how far the bullpen has evolved since March.

 

Since March the bullpen has more then evolved.  It's a different species.

[strumdatjag]

56 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Nice article!  His decline has been noticeable, as you note.  Logic says he is walking on thin ice and blown saves(and losses) are looming.  With the playoffs still in sight, how long is Shelty going to stick with him?  Loyalty is nice, but so are wins.

The big question is who would replace him?  Based on his track record before this year, Hoffman would seemingly be the choice, but he was replaced as the closer in Toronto and has continued(in a limited sample size) with the Twins to show an alarming tendency for BB.  Minter is a lefty specialist, but how effective would he be against RHers?  

The one guy who has been consistent has been Morris.  He would be my first choice, but with the deadline additions, would Shelty go with the rookie?  I would hope he's been seriously considering a move here.  The Twins have gone "all in" (for the Twins at least) to stay in the hunt.  A couple of costly pen meltdowns could doom their already slim chances.  How long he sticks with Gomez will go a long way to determining the team's chance to play in October.

Morris is the cat likely to be the closer of the future.   Hopefully, Shelton starts to give him more big-time 9th inning appearances.   

[Brandon]

How was Gomez pitching before July first?  Maybe he can pitch like that again!

[Patzky]

46 minutes ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

There is bound to be some regression. I’d like to see Shelty continue to deploy the bullpen as the situation calls for rather than strict rolls. I think bringing in Morris last night in the sixth is a good example. Mix and match with whatever the opponent’s lineup dictates.

I liked and actually called for the early Morris move. We had a tenuous lead and I feel he was the guy to hold the Orioles in hopes of us extending it. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

This tracks with what we've all seen - Gomez is effective, but hardly dominant. Still, I'll take any guy who can go 17 for 17 in saves. I agree that this is probably why they traded for Hoffman and tried to get Abreu before him. There are very few guys who are consistently good in save situations. Most contending teams have 2 guys who can be the closer and ride the hot hand. Very few closers stay hot forever. We went from none after trading away 1 (Duran) and it turns out 2 (Varland) closers, to 1 from the waiver wire (Gomez), to a 2nd from a trade (Hoffman), with Morris lurking in the background as maybe a 3rd. Falvey and Joe get a lot of justified criticism for last year's selloff and failure to rebuild the BP in the off season. I like the trade returns (YMMV), but there's no excuse for the pathetic bullpen "rebuild" last off season.  Conversely, Zoll and Tom should get some credit for rebuilding the bullpen on the fly in about 2/3 of a season. That ain't easy to do and I think they've pulled it off. We now have a top half, maybe even top 10 BP that can even be better in the post season by adding Matthews and Rojas to the mix over Adams and Rogers.  Never thought I'd see that this year. Gotta give 'em credit. 

[PuckettPond]

Hopefully he will continue over producing to the point & traded for valuable prospects. Remember Nelson Cruz! We must trade Joe Ryan to keep moving forward. Young arms more wins.

[Coach]

Can too! 😁

[Road trip]

Gomez doesn't necessarily have to regress.  I present as exhibit A, Eddie Guardado and his special closing voodoo:

2002: ERA 2.93 vs FIP 3.46
2003: 2.89 vs 3.23
2004: 2.78 vs 4.35
2005: 2.72 vs 3.73
2006: 3.89 vs 5.69

He may have induced a few hear failures, but Eddie somehow got it done year after year.

Sample sizes are so small with closers that I'm not entirely confident rate stats can be applied in the same way that we do for starters.  I haven't done the research, but it wouldn't surprise me if there are other closers out there with a similar track record to Everyday Eddie.

 

 

[Althebum82]

So, we DO still have a former Twins closer on our roster who has recorded two saves this season.... unfortunately, those were in back-to-back appearances in May and he has been pretty unreliable ever since.  Middle inning usage has charitably vultured him with six wins, further affirming that if we have to hang on to him in our bullpen, he seems to have enough luck to have a role on the team as far away from a closer role as possible.

[terrydactyls]

With the plethora of fancy new "advanced" metrics, one can always be found to support your point of view; usually by putting a + sign after or adding a lower case letter (or two) before another metric.  I.E., OPS+  WRRR, wOBA, wRC+, ERA+, IR-A, or IR-A%.  The best metric to me is DHGTSORN (Did He Get The Save Or Not). 🙂😉😜😁

 

[Derojo]

Gomez has good movement, but he's too passive like he doesn't trust his pitches, so he often trails in the count. Second, too many non-competitive pitches are thrown which takes the pressure off of the batter. Morris throws competitive balls a lot, which makes his strikes play better. Third, there's much potential to be realized with Gomez yet. Fourth, between the early additions: Gomez, Banda, Rojas, and Morris (and recent signings) the Twins have done well. Funderbirk has improved much. At this point the Twins pitching looks promising next year. I love the way the Twins bat as a team. They are a consistent pain in the arse for opposing pitchers. I don't know if I've ever seen such consistent two strike production in Twins history. 

[Patzky]

27 minutes ago, Derojo said:

Gomez has good movement, but he's too passive like he doesn't trust his pitches, so he often trails in the count. Second, too many non-competitive pitches are thrown which takes the pressure off of the batter. Morris throws competitive balls a lot, which makes his strikes play better. Third, there's much potential to be realized with Gomez yet. Fourth, between the early additions: Gomez, Banda, Rojas, and Morris (and recent signings) the Twins have done well. Funderbirk has improved much. At this point the Twins pitching looks promising next year. I love the way the Twins bat as a team. They are a consistent pain in the arse for opposing pitchers. I don't know if I've ever seen such consistent two strike production in Twins history. 

It sounds like we have taken some of Cleveland's Devil Magic on strike 2. I was reading the Tigers fan thread yesterday and they call the Guardians perpetual luck the same thing. 

[stringer bell]

Another former Twin was about the exact opposite--Ricky Nolasco's ERA was higher the his FIP every full season he pitched, including a 6.75 ERA paired with a 3.51 FIP for the Twins in 2015.

[HerbieFan]

"Closer" and "Fireman" are two different roles.  And we know the save is an overrated statistic.  Gomez isn't getting the most high-leverage situations (see Morris in the 6th against Baltimore).  I'm not panicking but Shelty at least has options now in his bullpen.

[Possumlad]

I think we're due for a blown save or two from Gomez in the next couple weeks. Personally I'd shift Morris in to that role now rather than wait for Gomez to cost us a couple wins. Morris is our best bullpen arm. Gomez, Minter, Hoffman, Nance (and Funderberk?) would be a very nice 6-8th inning crew. I hope we never see Rogers in another medium/high leverage situation - he's done.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Patzky said:

I want to have a lucky guy in my back pocket for the end of the game.

 

The good news is that there are a few other candidates should Gomez falter. And falter is relative.. he's demonstrated an ability to force the double play when needed. Morris and Minter seem locked in right now. Fundy has improved greatly. If a batter consistently lucks into bloop hits its part of the game.

The fact we're even having this conversation shows how far the bullpen has evolved since March.

 

Everybody likes to be lucky, but regression to the mean suggests at some point or another, the luck will run out and Gomez will blow 4 saves in a row or something.

[Patzky]

Just now, bean5302 said:

Everybody likes to be lucky, but regression to the mean suggests at some point or another, the luck will run out and Gomez will blow 4 saves in a row or something.

I feel three is Shelton's limit 😁