Walker Jenkins vs Emmanuel Rodriguez: Which Twins Prospect Gets the Call First?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints; Peyton Vogel/Peyton Pics

As we’ve already seen this year, the Twins are taking their time when it comes to calling up their top young players. For most of the season, Twins fans have been clamoring to see some of the organization’s best prospects get their chance in the majors. On Friday, we finally got the opportunity to see one of them.

The Twins promoted their No. 3 prospect, shortstop Kaelen Culpepper, and he wasted no time getting acclimated to the big leagues. Culpepper homered in his second major league at-bat against Brewers left-hander Shane Drohan, then reached base three times in his second career game. It was an impressive start to what the Twins hope will be a long and productive MLB career. But even after Culpepper's promotion, there are still two names Twins fans have been waiting all year to see.

Twins No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins and No. 6 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez are both seemingly right on the verge of a major league call-up, and there are a lot of similarities between the two. They’re both outfielders, and both left-handed outfielders (shocker). They can both play all over the outfield, and both have more than held their own at Triple-A. So, with that in mind, who will we see in the majors first?

I think you can make a very compelling case for both players, but if I had to make the bet right now, I’d take Rodriguez. There are a couple of different things working in his favor. For one, he’s two years older than Jenkins and has significantly more experience at the professional level. His career Triple-A OPS is 62 points higher than Jenkins’, giving him another advantage when it comes to evaluating which player is more prepared for the majors right now. He's also out of minor league options, meaning this season is his last chance to get major league reps before the Twins' hand is forced. Assuming they plan on keeping him around beyond this year, it would be wise to let him get his feet wet before he's thrust into a more impactful role.

 

There’s also the fact that Rodriguez is already on the Twins’ 40-man roster. The Twins wouldn’t have to make a corresponding move to add Rodriguez to the active roster; they could select his contract and bring him up whenever they feel he’s ready. And considering how well he’s performed at Triple-A, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to argue that he isn’t.

Rodriguez is sporting an outrageous .423 on-base percentage across 84 games with the St. Paul Saints. There are still some legitimate concerns about his ability to consistently make contact, but he draws enough walks to (at least partially) offset those concerns. And there’s no questioning the power. Rodriguez recorded the hardest-hit ball ever by a Twins player when he launched a 117.1 mph home run back in April. Ten days later, he broke his own record by hitting a home run at 118.3 mph. That type of raw power is extremely difficult to find.

The biggest question with Rodriguez has always been his ability to stay healthy. He’s dealt with more than his fair share of injuries throughout his career, and he’s actually just returning to St. Paul’s lineup after suffering a UCL tear in his thumb. But he’s healthy now, and if he can stay on the field, his major-league call-up could come very soon.

Then there’s Jenkins, who is making an increasingly strong case that he deserves to be in the majors, too. In fact, his recent performance is making it difficult to justify keeping him in St. Paul much longer. Since returning from his AC joint sprain on June 13, Jenkins has been outstanding. Across 158 plate appearances, he’s hitting .326 with a .380 on-base percentage, 20 extra-base hits and six stolen bases in seven attempts. And he’s doing all of that at just 21 years old. At times, Jenkins has looked like a man amongst boys in Triple-A. That’s the type of performance you want to see from a prospect ranked as highly as he is, and when your organization’s No. 1 prospect is performing at that level, there’s only so long you can justify keeping him in the minors.

 

But there are a couple of things working against Jenkins when looking at the bigger picture, and those are ultimately the reasons I’d take Rodriguez to get called up first. For one, Jenkins is not currently on the Twins’ 40-man roster. He doesn’t have to be added until after next season, meaning the Twins would have to create a spot for him if they wanted to bring him up now. That could certainly happen; the Twins could move someone to the 60-day injured list, or they could decide that another player is expendable and remove him from the 40-man roster. But it’s still an additional hurdle that doesn’t exist with Rodriguez.

There’s also an interesting wrinkle when it comes to the upcoming CBA negotiations. With uncertainty surrounding the next collective bargaining agreement, there’s at least a chance that the 2027 season could be delayed. That makes the Twins’ decision with Jenkins a little more complicated. If they add him to the 40-man roster this year and there’s a lockout next spring, there’s a possibility that Jenkins could lose valuable development time while sitting on the roster instead of continuing to develop in the minor leagues. That by itself probably isn’t enough to keep him in St. Paul if the Twins believe he’s ready for the majors, but it’s another factor the organization has to consider.

In an ideal world, both Rodriguez and Jenkins get called up at some point this season, and the 2027 season plays out normally. That would be the best-case scenario for everyone involved. The Twins would get two of their best young talents into the major league lineup, while Jenkins and Rodriguez would get valuable experience heading into what could be a very important offseason for the organization. But if I had to make the bet on which one we see in Minnesota first, I’m taking Rodriguez.

It’s not necessarily because he’s more talented than Jenkins, or even because he’s more deserving of a call-up at this exact moment. It’s because the circumstances surrounding Rodriguez make his path to the majors significantly easier. He’s older, more experienced, already on the 40-man roster and producing at an elite level in Triple-A. Jenkins may very well be the Twins’ top prospect for a reason, and if he keeps hitting like this, it’s going to be awfully difficult to keep him down for much longer. But for now, I think Rodriguez has the clearer path.

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[Cris E]

Hmm. If they wait three days one can still be eligible for Rookie awards next year, plus he's hitting well and feels ready to go. OTOH the other has hit 0-3 with 2K in the past three months at AAA. 

Hey here's an idea: wait 72 hours before running this so that Walter can come up with a clean slate next year, plus let Emma see some decent pitching, and maybe figure out where Buxton's recovery is at. 

[PuckettPond]

Where will Erod be this time next year?

[bean5302]

Emma should get the call. He's been better than Jenkins in AAA, he's out of options and the Twins need to see how he looks in MLB so they can have an offseason strategy.

[mikelink45]

I am not a Rodriguez fan, but I am anxious to see WJ here.  

[tony&rodney]

Wondered if those people who are taking 200 OPS points off of AAA numbers have considered dropping 200 points from guys in MLB that cannot field? Not saying this should be done but wondering if that could be a thing?

[Twins 72]

A lot seems to depend on Buxton. If he is going to be back soon and stays healthy, I might lean Erod because I am not quite as worried about him playing everyday. He would be the better choice to play more of a part time role. He is older and he is out of options so even a part time role this year would help to see what the future holds for him in the organization going forward. I would not want to do that with Jenkins. He has to play full-time if he is called up. 

[Drtwins]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Emma should get the call. He's been better than Jenkins in AAA, he's out of options and the Twins need to see how he looks in MLB so they can have an offseason strategy.

Agreed, for all the same reasons. Curious who would be sent down, assuming Roden is sent down for Buxton later this week. Culpepper's 6ks in 13ab isn't real impressive, Caratini has been terrible since Jeffers return, ultimately I don't see Emma getting his chance until rosters expand but I hope he does to get his feet wet prior to next season when the Twins will be forced to make a decision.

[bean5302]

6 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

Agreed, for all the same reasons. Curious who would be sent down, assuming Roden is sent down for Buxton later this week. Culpepper's 6ks in 13ab isn't real impressive, Caratini has been terrible since Jeffers return, ultimately I don't see Emma getting his chance until rosters expand but I hope he does to get his feet wet prior to next season when the Twins will be forced to make a decision.

Pretty clear to me this front office doesn't understand the concept of roster management. Zoll, if he's still here (hope not) next year will discover in Spring Training that Emma has no options and no good place on the roster with the other the 7 lefties he'll have signed who could technically stand in LF/RF or 1B.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Isn't it likely that Emma gets a 4th option year? I understand the rule to be that a player who has not had five "full professional seasons" (at least 90 days on active major or minor league roster) before using up the third option will get a 4th option year. I've read several places that Emma is likely to get that extra year. I ask because a lot of the call to bring him up seems to be driven by the idea that he is out of options so we need to see him this year. I question whether that's accurate although Gleeman says that he was told by a source in the league office that Emma doesn't qualify for a 4th option year, so what do I know.

Doesn't change my thought process anyway. Jenkins is clearly the better choice IMHO. He has been crushing the ball since returning from the IL and showing the one thing previously missing, power. He is also the better defensive player and can play CF, something we need for the 1 to 2 days a week Buxton is not going to play there. Conversely, Emma just came back after 100 days on IL, and has a 37% (!) Strike out rate this year after two years above 30%. He is going to wind up with a 35 to 40% strikeout rate in the majors when he first comes up. That's unplayable. You can't have a hole like that in your lineup the matter how much he walks. 

The ironic thing about this debate is I don't think either one of them is coming up unless there's an injury. Buxton will replace Roden, as he should, and I think the Twins are going to try to keep Alex Jackson on the roster so they have him for next year. If we put him on waivers and someone claims him, which seems pretty likely, they get him next year too because he has one arbitration year remaining. I hear the argument that there are other guys out there like him we can get for next year, and that may be right, but I think they go with the devil they know. Also, it's hard to find another place to put a call up with the way Martin hits left-handed pitching (.800+ OPS this year, 898 OPS last year), and as well as Larnach has been playing before the recent slump. We have to keep Kreidler so we have a second shortstop. We can't put Lee back there if Culpepper doesn't make it. There just may be no room at the end unless there's an injury. But let's face it, there always is an injury, so it's still a fun debate. Watch, someone will get hurt and the team will bring up Wallner. 

 

 

[mickster]

3 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Where will Erod be this time next year?

Not in a Twins/Saints uniform.

[Whammy]

3 hours ago, Cris E said:

Hmm. If they wait three days one can still be eligible for Rookie awards next year, plus he's hitting well and feels ready to go. OTOH the other has hit 0-3 with 2K in the past three months at AAA. 

Hey here's an idea: wait 72 hours before running this so that Walter can come up with a clean slate next year, plus let Emma see some decent pitching, and maybe figure out where Buxton's recovery is at. 

Not strictly true. They could theoretically pass the 130 AB threshold, even if they don't pass the 45-days threshold.

[Cris E]

1 minute ago, Whammy said:

Not strictly true. They could theoretically pass the 130 AB threshold, even if they don't pass the 45-days threshold.

Distinction without difference:  they are clearly managing the playing time with this in mind. 

[Whammy]

6 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Isn't it likely that Emma gets a 4th option year? I understand the rule to be that a player who has not had five "full professional seasons" (at least 90 days on active major or minor league roster) before using up the third option will get a 4th option year. I've read several places that Emma is likely to get that extra year. I ask because a lot of the call to bring him up seems to be driven by the idea that he is out of options so we need to see him this year. I question whether that's accurate although Gleeman says that he was told by a source in the league office that Emma doesn't qualify for a 4th option year, so what do I know.

 

I'm on the same page as you regarding the 4th year. As you note, Gleeman has addressed it, only so far as saying "I've been told he's not eligible." I'd love it explained to me WHY he's not eligible, because it sure seems like he should be.

My guess is that Spring training days on the active roster counts towards the annual 90-day threshold, but I'd like to get that confirmed.

[Cory Engelhardt]

If they are both going to be up this year, Larnach almost has to not play then right? And he's been great this year.

Course, Buxton. It all depends on him then. Hopefully his hip is right and he can be more the April version of himself. 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This debate sounds a little like the one that was had back a few years, only the names then were Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario.  Sano was going to be the next great Twins star and this guy named Rosario somehow usually managed to equal or better his output in the minors without nearly the fanfare (or movies about him).  Then they got to the majors and Rosario managed to have more of a career (11.1 WAR vs. 8.0 WAR).  He even had more career home runs, albeit in more at bats (which also says something).  

I'm not saying that either is destined for stardom and/or failure.  That could happen to either or both of them.  However, there is not some gigantic difference in what they have accomplished in the minor leagues that makes this call that obvious.  Being older and out of options definitely does count for something in terms of suitability for roles and call ups.  I'm fine with either of them called up, but if it is to be only one, I would choose to promote Rodriguez.  

[Road trip]

The first called will be:  "Whoever isn't hurt when the Twins need an outfielder".  I'm kidding.  Mostly.  I hope.