Ryan Kreidler is Turning Back into a Pumpkin at the Plate

[Cody Schoenmann]

Weeks before spring training concluded and the Minnesota Twins flew from sunny Fort Myers to Baltimore to begin their 162-game regular season campaign, I published an article on utility player Ryan Kreidler, stating the 28-year-old had likely been MLB’s worst hitter over the past six seasons. Though harsh, the claim was valid—Kreidler’s career wRC+ of 11 made him the worst-performing hitter (766 out of 766) with at least 200 plate appearances from 2020 through 2025. Still, optimism remained that the former Detroit Tiger could contribute for Minnesota this season, particularly given his defensive flexibility.

 

Luckily, that has been the outcome so far. Kreidler has hit .231/.290/.385 with five home runs and an 87 wRC+ over 169 plate appearances. An 87 wRC+ is 13 points below league average. Nobody in Twins Territory is complaining about a 76-point improvement from his career average, especially given his plus glove and arm at one of the position’s highest on the defensive in shortstop. What is concerning about Kreidler's performance, however, is how stark a decline he has undergone in recent weeks, lending credence to the idea that he might be reverting to one of the league’s most ineffective hitters.

 

From April 11 to June 30, the right-handed bat hit .287/.357/.505 with a 140 wRC+ over 112 plate appearances. Hitting the ball hard and rarely striking out, Kreidler’s underlying metrics supported his offensive breakout, sporting a .334 wwOBA during that stretch. Since July 1, however, the first-time Twin has plummeted down to earth, hitting .127/.158/.164 with a -17 wRC+ over 57 plate appearances. His ability to drive the ball has ceased to exist, with him netting only two doubles and zero home runs over that stretch. His underlying metrics match his struggles, too, with him yielding a .200 xwOBA, 134 points lower than when he was excelling at the plate.

 

No one who follows the Twins expected Kreidler to continue hitting 40 points above league average. Still, how quickly he descended into being the Tigers' version of himself is alarming, illustrating how unsustainable success is for fringe major leaguers. Kreidler is still a serviceable rotational piece, considering he’s Minnesota’s best defensive option at shortstop while also possessing the ability to play all three outfield positions, third base, and second. Still, the Twins would be wise to move quickly to minimize his plate appearances—luckily, one of their top prospects is the closest he’s ever been to making his major league debut.

 

On Friday, St. Paul activated Kaelen Culpepper from the reserve list, with the organization’s third-ranked prospect returning to the Triple-A lineup. The 23-year-old shortstop had knocked on the parent club’s door earlier this season, sporting a 117 wRC+ over 303 plate appearances with the Saints. Unfortunately, however, injuries have delayed the top prospect’s major league debut. Yet, with Kreidler’s struggles, Tristan Gray’s recent demotion to Triple-A, and Brooks Lee’s full-time transition to third base, nothing stands in the way of Culpepper taking over as the Twins' primary starting shortstop as the club seeks its first postseason appearance since 2023.

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[Church of Kreidler]

I fear an excommunication is in your future @Cody Schoenmann…

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

LOL,  I think you should have published before yesterday.  Kreidler's defense is crazy good.  A .200 to .225 Kreidler is palatable for the remainder of the year.  Anything better is gravy.  

[c24]

Twins just need to declare every home game a Ryan night and he'll play like an All-Star.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Weird timing on this 'article'...

[Saxophone Joe]

Thumbs down. What are we doing? In this house, King Kreidler is a hero!

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Kreidler is this years version of Cody Clemens.  Clemens had some incredible high and low months last year.  The defense from Kreidler this year is off the charts.  He may vary well become the Twins long term utility player.    

[Saxophone Joe]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The defense from Kreidler this year is off the charts. 

100%. Watching that stab he made at short in the seventh inning on Saturday night up close was poetry in motion.

[Riverbrian]

Players go up and players go down. Round and Round they go. It's a long season but I have no concerns about Kreidler whatsoever at the moment. Teams have winning streaks and losing streaks. It's the way baseball works. 

His past doesn't matter. His now and tomorrow is what matters. 

Kriedler is a welcome member of the Twins 26 man roster. 

[Parfigliano]

Kreidler is what he is.  Good glove.  Dont expect offensive production.

[Saxophone Joe]

Cody's editors as he hits the publish button. J/k - just funny timing after yesterday:)

 

[Dman]

The whole team has been in a bit of a hitting funk since the break.  Kreidler's numbers are just more impacted because of the small sample size.  I can't say I haven't been concerned about his hitting recently, but he does hit the ball hard just generally right at people.

Buxton has been O-fer whatever since he came back.  Lee has had long streaks of O-fers as well as other players.  I think there has been some improvement at the plate and he plays outstanding defense at short.  I haven't seen a Twins shortstop make the plays he has in a long time.  I'll be waiting to see what his numbers look like at the end of the season before being too judgey. 

[arby58]

25 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

LOL,  I think you should have published before yesterday.  Kreidler's defense is crazy good.  A .200 to .225 Kreidler is palatable for the remainder of the year.  Anything better is gravy.  

Agreed -  AND with Culpepper (and even Houston) moving up the ladder, there is no reason to expend trade capital on a SS.

[bean5302]

He's still managing the K's dramatically better than he was in previous years, though I think it's debatable on how much of that is luck since his contact and swing rates remain pretty similar. His first pitch strike rate is way, way down and that's undoubtedly making a world of difference.

I think he'll probably settle down below the wRC+ 80 range which is the minimally viable point for planned regular playing time, but much better than the below zero stuff he's put up in the past. That said, it's fast approaching Kaelen Culpepper time and Kreidler isn't going to be a guy who carries the Twins to the playoffs this year or in the future.

[Brandon]

I expect Kreidler will be a backup IF in our future.  And he is doing great for our future backup.  Also he has 15 XBH in 163 AB so the power is good.  He walks enough.  His average has gone down but if he has plus defense then he is fine as a placeholder for Culpepper.

 

[amjgt]

I like Ryan Kreidler's defense. It's good. It's really good (not to mention his defensive flexibility) But I feel like because of the defense we've been subjected to at Shortstop over the last two seasons, we're overrating it a bit.

"Off the charts".... "Poetry in motion".... feel a bit hyperbolic

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Kreidler is this years version of Cody Clemens.  Clemens had some incredible high and low months last year.  The defense from Kreidler this year is off the charts.  He may vary well become the Twins long term utility player.    

I think this is it. Kriedler isn't the long term starting SS; but he's doing well as a placeholder for Culpepper or Houston. I expect something of a time share from Aust 15 or so onward when Culpepper is up while they assess if Culpepper's Defense is good enough for short. If it is, Kriedler's the utility infielder probably this year and next. If the D isn't there but Culpepper hits, he moves to 2B, Clemens becomes a Super UTL, and Kriedler stays at SS until Houston is ready.  Either way I see Kriedler on the Twins through at least 2027 unless he falls below the Mendoza line with no power. A quality fielding UTL who can play short at a high level and hit even a little is very hard to find so I think Kriedler gets every opportunity for the next year and a half.  

[MMMordabito]

I cherry picked a 58 PA sample from another player and get .103/.250/.146

Can anyone else find another example?

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, Church of Kreidler said:

I fear an excommunication is in your future @Cody Schoenmann…

forgive me father kreidler for i have doubts

[CRF]

He ain't in there to hit. He's in there to play good defense at short...which the other guys can't do. 

[amjgt]

I want Ryan Kreidler as my starting shortstop right now. Not because I think he is a starting caliber MLB shortstop on a playoff team but because he's the best we've got at the moment. The moment I am presented with a better option for the starting shortstop for the Twins, I'll happily relegate him to "extremely useful bench player on a playoff team" status.

I think it's likely that he maintains that status for several years. I'm satisfied with him in that role in 2027 the same way I am with Alex Roden as my 4th OF and Alex Jackson as my backup C. As a mid-market team having those three guys on my bench at basically $3M total in 2027 feels like some boxes are checked and I can focus resources elsewhere. 

[HarmonK03]

You can appreciate the contributions that Kreidler has made but still have questions about his long term fit, they are not mutally exclusive.  There are a lot of numbers being put out there that are trying to predict what he can become.  But we have history, he's had one career month in June and in July when he started playing regularly and he reverted back to his career norms. 

Currently he is our best option to play shortstop, but Culpepper needs to be up in the next 10 days and put there every day.   Kreidler can be the utility guy for this year, but I would like some competition for next year with somebody who can hit more consistently.  He wasn't even the first option for this team, they kept Gray over him twice until his defense became unplayable.

We get excited when a player does well and then try to project that they are the next big thing.  There were plenty people on here saying Gray was the answer when he hit the grand slams.  Or Arcia was the answer when he had a couple of key hits.  That is what bench players do, they contribute when called upon.  But it doesn't mean they can do it consistently to earn the right to play on a daily basis.  I love when these types of players come thru, but I try and keep expectations reasonable as to what expect going forward.

[mickster]

4 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

You can appreciate the contributions that Kreidler has made but still have questions about his long term fit, they are not mutally exclusive.  There are a lot of numbers being put out there that are trying to predict what he can become.  But we have history, he's had one career month in June and in July when he started playing regularly and he reverted back to his career norms. 

Currently he is our best option to play shortstop, but Culpepper needs to be up in the next 10 days and put there every day.   Kreidler can be the utility guy for this year, but I would like some competition for next year with somebody who can hit more consistently.  He wasn't even the first option for this team, they kept Gray over him twice until his defense became unplayable.

We get excited when a player does well and then try to project that they are the next big thing.  There were plenty people on here saying Gray was the answer when he hit the grand slams.  Or Arcia was the answer when he had a couple of key hits.  That is what bench players do, they contribute when called upon.  But it doesn't mean they can do it consistently to earn the right to play on a daily basis.  I love when these types of players come thru, but I try and keep expectations reasonable as to what expect going forward.

I truly don't understand the desire to get Culpepper up?  Without a move - who goes?  I prefer to leave him where he is until necessary at this point 

[HarmonK03]

Just now, mickster said:

I truly don't understand the desire to get Culpepper up?  Without a move - who goes?  I prefer to leave him where he is until necessary at this point 

One of the catchers, he needs at least another week so after the deadline one of the catchers should be gone.  Culpepper has a lot more upside and I want to start his learning curve now as that will be more beneficial this year and the future for the team. Kreidler should not be the reason you hold him back.

[Saxophone Joe]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

."Off the charts".... "Poetry in motion".. feel a bit hyperbolic

That's the whole bit though. We all know he isn't Bobby Witt Jr. Just a fun guy to root for and his presence has unquestionably improved the team imo. And, really, Kreidler's play on Saturday from my view behind the Twins' dugout was beautiful to watch. 

[mickster]

12 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

One of the catchers, he needs at least another week so after the deadline one of the catchers should be gone.  Culpepper has a lot more upside and I want to start his learning curve now as that will be more beneficial this year and the future for the team. Kreidler should not be the reason you hold him back.

I will admit, I am not a prospect guy..   I understand we have many that have value, but then again people wanted McCusker and Fedko and I am not sure they are/were MLB caliber.    I agree we can't unload the farm to go for it this year, but I would like to build around what we have and use that MiLB talent to supplement the roster in the future

[Road trip]

Agree he's not been great lately, but on the year his OPS+ is better than the following guys who play lower on the defensive spectrum:

Bell (who, as we know, has no position)
Keaschall
Martin
Lewis

...and he's only a point behind Brooks Lee.

Since the All Star break the lineup is a vegetable stand of pumpkins in the batter's box.  Until Culpepper or someone else is ready though, I'll take Kreidler at SS.

[HarmonK03]

9 minutes ago, mickster said:

I will admit, I am not a prospect guy..   I understand we have many that have value, but then again people wanted McCusker and Fedko and I am not sure they are/were MLB caliber.    I agree we can't unload the farm to go for it this year, but I would like to build around what we have and use that MiLB talent to supplement the roster in the future

That is understandable.  But we don't have a major league talent in front of him, I am sorry I don't see Kreidler as a starting shortstop except as a stopgap.  Culpepper was drafted in the 1st round in 2024 and is a top 50 rated prospect, he is nowhere near what Fedko and McCusker were.  Not every 1st rounder makes it, but the reports I am seeing say he is close and this team could use a boost.  This is why you draft a Culpepper.  They are not going to be able sign quality starters at every position, they need to develop talent to fill this roster.

[HarmonK03]

11 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Agree he's not been great lately, but on the year his OPS+ is better than the following guys who play lower on the defensive spectrum:

Bell (who, as we know, has no position)
Keaschall
Martin
Lewis

...and he's only a point behind Brooks Lee.

Since the All Star break the lineup is a vegetable stand of pumpkins in the batter's box.  Until Culpepper or someone else is ready though, I'll take Kreidler at SS.

He has had a 160 AB's vs.  300 to 400 for the other players mentioned.  And his OPS has dropped over 100 points in the month of July when he has been playing every day.

[ashbury]

When a batter goes to the plate, the four most common outcomes are:

• a strikeout
• a walk
• a home run
• a ball is put into play (.290 BA across the majors, with only minor variations among individuals)

Compared to his time with Detroit, Kreidler's record as a Twin shows him with a much reduced strikeout rate (20%, down from 30%), not much change in walk rate (6.9%, down from 7.6%), a big relative jump in home runs (2.9%, up from 0.9%), and suddenly normal outcomes when putting the ball in play (.283 BA, versus a ludicrous .198 as a Tiger).

His putrid July (prior to yesterday's 3-hit breakout game) featured a reversion to somewhat worse strikeouts (25%), no home runs at all, a drop in walks (down below 4%) and maybe worst of all a BA on balls in play back to his bad old Detroit days (.179). 

It could be that the home run power we saw earlier this year was a complete blip, not to be repeated.  Maybe his strikeouts are trending back to a higher than desirable level.  But that BABIP of .179 makes him look like a candidate to "suddenly" get back to being better than a black hole at the plate, when the batted ball stops going like a magnet to opposing fielders' gloves.

Anyone who believed our FO had found a gold nugget just lying there on the sand and we had a starting-caliber shortstop courtesy of the waiver wire was probably doomed to disappointment.  But I still view Kreidler as a good glove with enough bat to be a utility infielder, and given our present sad, sad defensive infield roster he might as well be the starter.

Keep the strikeouts low, Ryan, get the walks back up and see if you can pop a homer now and then.  And do keep putting the ball in play - the BABIP will take care of itself.