Why Another Twins Trade Deadline Selloff Doesn’t Make Sense

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

19 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Hard Pass. That trade substantially favors the Red Sox. Tolle might someday be what Ryan is now but he isn't that yet and nothing is guaranteed. To even that out, Boston would either have to include a proven MLB hitter like Abreu or Rafaela, or a young rising pitcher like Early, plus a prospect. A package deal both ways like Tolle, Abreu and Joshtnyxson Garcia or Gabriel Arias for Ryan and a Twins prospect in the 15-30 range could work. Substitute Raffaela for Abreu and remove the Twins prospect going back to Boston might also work. But Tolle alone for Ryan, not something the Twins should even consider.  

Valuation wise it’s a massive overpay for the Red Sox. 5 years of a #2 or better pitcher for a top 5 pitcher in the game for a year and 2 months. 

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Hypothetical - if Red Sox offered Tolle for Ryan heads up do you take it?

No. Not enough.

[LewFordLives]

There is absolutely no way they can be sellers if they are still in the playoff picture. In addition to the reasons mentioned in the article, it would further alienate the fan base. Ownership needs to show that we're not just going to be a farm club for the bigger markets.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No. Not enough.

Trade Calculator. 
Ryan 46. For Tolle 62

Twins +16. 
 

See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.  

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Trade Calculator. 
Ryan 46. For Tolle 62

Twins +16. 
 

See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.  

Fair. I got him and another pitcher confused. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair. I got him and another pitcher confused. 

Like I said I don’t trade anyone and take my chances and see we can get to the playoffs, a chip and a chair philosophy.  If Jeffers does well down the stretch a comp pick is all but guaranteed and worth more than anything we can get in a trade. If Ryan can be strong down the stretch and get a playoff win and maybe top 3 cy young he is still worth around 40-46.  Math and Milwaukee philosophy says 1 year left is the time to trade.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Like I said I don’t trade anyone and take my chances and see we can get to the playoffs, a chip and a chair philosophy.  If Jeffers does well down the stretch a comp pick is all but guaranteed and worth more than anything we can get in a trade. If Ryan can be strong down the stretch and get a playoff win and maybe top 3 cy young he is still worth around 40-46.  Math and Milwaukee philosophy says 1 year left is the time to trade.  

We disagree on Jeffers. But I understand why they'd keep Ryan thru the year. 

[TL]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Another thought; when Buxton comes back, it's very much a numbers game. Even if they trade Larnach (for example) the outfield then is Roden/Martin, Buxton and Keaschall right now. That's perfectly fine, right? But IF Jenkins comes up (which I do think happens at some point) then you do have to think about the idea of moving Bell to ensure that the outfield mix can all take turns dh'ing right? Not that they have to move Bell, but I could see the idea of it depending on the return.

Anyway, lots of moving parts too, so trading some guys with the intention of making room for players that are ready also makes sense.

 

Send Martin down or out. Jenkins in left and Roden/Keaschall platoon.  

[Sjoski]

If the current roster on the field isn't a serious contender, holding onto players just to finish third in one of baseballs weakest division is pointless.

[Cory Engelhardt]

20 minutes ago, TL said:

Send Martin down or out. Jenkins in left and Roden/Keaschall platoon.  

I can’t see Keaschall as a platoon to be honest 

[LyleCole]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Only in retrospect were the 1987 Twins so good. The 1986 Twins finished 71-91. Only the Texas Rangers and Florida Marlins faced longer odds than the '87 Twins. Virtually nobody picked them. Was it different? Yes, 1987 was in the 20th Century. The government had NASA and now in the 21st century NASA has been largely privatized to become SpaceX (making a blatantly/openly illegal immigrant quite wealthy), which is the new normal. Yes, things are different. You know that and so do we all. Change happens. Let's just try to enjoy the rest of the current season. It's all good.

Not exactly true because their core players were very good and everyone knew it.   They lacked a closer.  They lacked a bullpen, and their starters did not have good seasons in 1986, including Viola.

The fact that nobody picked them doesn't make them a bad team that was well tailored for the post season that only required them to win one series to get to the World Series.   They also gained an advantage because in the playoffs series they were given home field advantage by rotation which really helped them, especially in the World Series facing a NL team that had never played there before.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Trade Calculator. 
Ryan 46. For Tolle 62

Twins +16. 
 

See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.  

Is this from baseball trade values? If you look at that site, they say that while Tolle has extra surplus value, this Is not a trade that would ever happen in real life because of the realities of trading an established Frontline starter for a guy who essentially still a prospect. Boston would have to add pieces, potentially top 100 prospect pieces to make this an even trade in their view. I’m curious because everything I read says that Boston would have to add significant pieces to Tolle to get Ryan. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place. What is your source?

[LyleCole]

Again, here is the deal.  If the Twins ownership is willing to add significantly to their payroll budget, for example signing Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan to market value free agent contracts AND add other higher cost free agents, not the bargain basement players they usually add to fill out the roster, then they should stand pat at the trade deadline and perhaps add an arm or two if they can make a cheap deal.

But if that is NOT the case, dump everyone who is going to be lost at the top of their value right now, gain prospects to use in the rebuild.

If rooting to make the 3rd wild card and getting swept in the playoffs is your kind of team, I guess the Twins and their spendthrift ownership are for you.  

[DocBauer]

It's very simple but yet complicated at the same time.

If the Twins come out of the break playing the same way they have been playing, you're hoping for a 10-6 record that not only puts them above .500, not only has them grabbing a hold on the 6th WC playoff spot, but has them in contention to win the ALC.

This is absolutely true unless a couple of teams suddenly go on a hot streak and mess everything up.

If the Twins suddenly fall asleep after all the good work they have done the past couple of months and suddenly go 6-10, they have pretty much lost their chances for playoff competition and things change. 

So ALL of the various articles about sell, or buy, or both, are kind of frivolous until we see how the next 2 or 2 1/2 weeks ACTUALLY turn out.

A team in contention seldom deals quality ML players. IF they do, they are trading for prospects. COULD the Twins trade Jeffers for prospects,  but ALSO trade prospects for bullpen help and still "survive" without him? Based on the last month plus, the answer is probably yes. It would be sort of a conviluted 3 team deal where we move prospects for bullpen help, but gain some prospects back. 

IF we're in contention, do we trade Larnach, during his best season, and have someone ready to replace him? Is Roden ready? Maybe. Is Keaschall ready? Maybe. But that's a lot of maybe for a team in contention. 

But it's really nonsense to discuss until we see how the next couple of weeks play out.

IF we keep playing good ball and winning, it's possible Jeffers is resigned or given the QO offer for one year. It's possible we trade for a couple solid BP pieces. 

We need something to talk about during the break. And I get that. But I think there are more interesting topics to discuss than ANOTHER potential trade OP.

How about we just see how the next couple of weeks go?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Is this from baseball trade values? If you look at that site, they say that while Tolle has extra surplus value, this Is not a trade that would ever happen in real life because of the realities of trading an established Frontline starter for a guy who essentially still a prospect. Boston would have to add pieces, potentially top 100 prospect pieces to make this an even trade in their view. I’m curious because everything I read says that Boston would have to add significant pieces to Tolle to get Ryan. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place. What is your source?

Those are the values in the trade calculator and I’ve never seen any qualifiers, the values are to get you in the ballpark.