Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

 

In the Twins' fourth game of the 2026 season, Matt Wallner connected for his first home run. It was just his second hit of the year, as he's striking out around 30% of the time and hitting into some tough luck. He's struggled with some adjustments to the ABS challenge system, though he's also walked at a high rate in the extremely limited early sample.

Results mean little in snatches of a few games here and there, though, so let's talk about process. Wallner has altered two key things that became problematic for him in a poor 2025 season, and now, he's a bit better insulated against some of his glaring weaknesses than he was in the past.

Firstly, as was covered pretty well this spring, Wallner's stance and stride have changed. He's noticeably less open in the batter's box, and his feet also start farther apart. That makes his stride a bit shorter to get to (more or less) the same position at contact, which produces a slightly less linear, lunging address of the ball.

A shorter stride means greater balance and the ability to see the ball a bit better a bit longer, which should result in better swing decisions and a higher contact rate. Wallner swung at 26% of pitches outside the zone during spring training, which is only very slightly lower than the chase rates he posted in 2024 and 2025 (around 29%), but he's swung at barely over 14% of out-of-zone pitches in the first few games of the regular season. His strikeout rate remains high, but that's inevitable for Wallner; he swings for the fences and works deep counts.

More importantly, but less certainly, Wallner seems to be letting the ball travel more this spring. His contact point is deeper (around 33 inches in front of his frame, down from 36-37 inches in the past). A deeper contact point typically leads to better contact rates but less pull power. We don't have enough data to call this signal instead of noise yet, but to whatever extent he's seeing the ball a bit deeper, that, too, makes Wallner more dangerous.

Let's compare two key moments in the swing for the two pitches this year on which Wallner has put his improved process on display, with the same moments in swings against simiiar offerings last year. First, here's a comparison of his first hit of the year (a line-drive single off Orioles starter Shane Baz and his 98-MPH fastball) with a fastball from Yankees righty Luis Gil last season, on which he hit a routine flyout. The top two images show the moment when the pitcher released the ball. The bottom two show the moment when Wallner's front foot engaged with the ground, allowing him to fully execute his swing.

As the animations above suggested, Wallner's tweaked stance and stride put him in better hitting positions. Last year, the former hard-throwing pitcher looked too much like he still was one, bringing his front leg all the way up past his front elbow. This year, that leg kick is slightly but vitally modulated, engaging his core and giving him a timing mechanism but not throwing off his balance. As he lands, you can see his weight is more evenly distributed this year, whereas the longer stride in 2025 left him lurching.

Here's the same set of images for a sweeper on which he popped up lazily last summer in Toronto, and the one on which he tagged Kris Bubic for his first homer on Monday.

The themes are the same, but you can spot one more variable. Against lefties, Wallner is better able to stay back this year, which lets him start his hands a bit earlier without overcommitting. Last season, he was starting in plenty of time against a pitch that wasn't even especially fast, but still had to rush the barrel, and he was late and flat through the hitting zone on a fat pitch. This year, he was dangerous throughout the swing and unloaded on a Bubic mistake.

These changes to his lower-half mechanics relate to an important one in his actual bat path. Last summer, I noted that Wallner had flattened his swing, to the detriment of his contact quality and his overall game. A fkat swing requires that contact point way out in front of you, which can also lead to more whiffs. It was a strange and ill-fitting adjustment for a tall, patient pwoer hitter. This season, in limited looks, he appears to have reverted to a better plan.

Here are his key swing characteristics for pitches in the medium bracket in terms of vertical location, according to Statcast. (I've focused on these to eliminate the distortionary influences of swing distribution by location early in the season, and because Wallner only has a meaningful number of swings in that middle tier.)

Season	Bat Speed	Swing Tilt	Contact Point (in.)
2024	77.6	31°	33.4
2025	76.8	27°	35
2026	76.4	30°	31

Without losing any meaningful amount of bat speed, Wallner has recovered his tilt and is letting the ball travel more when it's in the best segment of the zone for hitting. That's a strong indicator. He still has some key vulnerabilities that will be hard to cover: he doesn't handle velocity or the ball up in the zone well. However, his changes in setup, stride and bat path this spring give him a chance for the kind of rebound the Twins desperately need from him. A version of Wallner who bats, say, .240/.350/.520 is much closer at hand than it was last year, which is also an encouraging signal about the team's new hitting coaches. It's still unlikely that Wallner gets to that level, but after he batted .202/.311/.464 last season, the ability to even dream on such a major improvement is a testament to Wallner's openness to vital changes and the coaching staff's deftness.

 

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Very funny Matt

[JD-TWINS]

Am always hopeful.

2 hits - 30% strikeout rate - his saving grace is that “he walks a lot”……. sounds familiar. Essentially, a he’s taller Eddie Julien (hitting 10 more solo shots/yr.) ………with the mediocre defense to match.

I sure hope he converts me soon!!!

Don’t want to hear about how “he actually didn’t have a bad year in ‘25” ………… 41 XBH with a whopping 40 RBI…….. NOT an April Fool’s stat.

[killertwinfan]

I am cheering for the guy and I hope so fi him and the twins.  However, the issue seems more to be with our aggressiveness with RISP. We have our worst AB’s, Wallner and everyone, with RISP.  We get too aggressive and get into bad counts.  Double plays and strikeouts. Is there data on bad AB’s with RISP? How is that changing?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Am always hopeful.

2 hits - 30% strikeout rate - his saving grace is that “he walks a lot”……. sounds familiar. Essentially, a he’s taller Eddie Julien (hitting 10 more solo shots/yr.) ………with the mediocre defense to match.

I sure hope he converts me soon!!!

Don’t want to hear about how “he actually didn’t have a bad year in ‘25” ………… 41 XBH with a whopping 40 RBI…….. NOT an April Fool’s stat.

I’m not saying he had a good season for his standards, but a 114 wRC+ is 14% better than average by definition.

Wallner is strong enough that he doesn’t need to pull the ball to get it over the fence. Agreed with the OP he’s doing the right things. Optimistic the results follow the process.

[srlarson]

can't have big leaguers that strike out 30% of the time....I don't care how many home runs they hit....shorten the swing...hit less Hr's and drive the ball.......or he will be replaced in the next couple of years....

[Linus]

I think I will just stay out of this thread….😀

[Rufus]

I just don't understand the love affair fans with this guy.  compare him to Miguel Sano.  Sano had better career numbers and the fans booed him to death.  Wallner has played right field his entire career.  Sano played a different position almost every year.   Larnach's numbers are not great, but better than Wallner's.   

[Nshore]

31 minutes ago, Rufus said:

I just don't understand the love affair fans with this guy.  compare him to Miguel Sano.  Sano had better career numbers and the fans booed him to death.  Wallner has played right field his entire career.  Sano played a different position almost every year.   Larnach's numbers are not great, but better than Wallner's.   

He's from Forest Lake, Mn.

[Eris]

Harmon Killebrew had a 17% K rate for his career. While I certainly hope that Wallner has a successful career, it becomes difficult to sustain success when striking out 30% of the time. 

[Dave Lemke]

40 minutes ago, srlarson said:

can't have big leaguers that strike out 30% of the time....I don't care how many home runs they hit....shorten the swing...hit less Hr's and drive the ball.......or he will be replaced in the next couple of years....

Judge and Raleigh also strike out approximately 30 % of the time. They should maybe be replaced also?

[Matthew Trueblood]

55 minutes ago, srlarson said:

can't have big leaguers that strike out 30% of the time....I don't care how many home runs they hit....shorten the swing...hit less Hr's and drive the ball.......or he will be replaced in the next couple of years....

 

12 minutes ago, Eris said:

Harmon Killebrew had a 17% K rate for his career. While I certainly hope that Wallner has a successful career, it becomes difficult to sustain success when striking out 30% of the time. 

Well that's just not true. The league struck out 14.1% of the time during Killebrew's career. The ratio of his K rate to the league's was virtually identical to the one between 30% and the league's average K rate now. And we have a handful of modern examples of players punching out about that often and having success over several-year stretches. Matt Wallner's problem is not that he strikes out too much. It's that he often can't stay healthy, and that last year, he didn't do enough damage when he did make contact.

[Jim H]

19 minutes ago, Dave Lemke said:

Judge and Raleigh also strike out approximately 30 % of the time. They should maybe be replaced also?

Implying Wallner is in their class? Both those guys hit over 40 home runs a year with batting averages over 250 and sprinkle a lot of doubles in there as well. If Wallner can get over 30 home runs he would provide some value. But, these advanced stats seem to overvalue home runs compared to other hits, in my opinion.  

It looks like Wallner is going to get a chance to prove he can be a little more consistent and maybe provide more than solo home runs that don't seem to be particularly clutch.

[Woof Bronzer]

It's always entertaining to see what passes for a meaningful sample size for the sabermetric crowd.  If the sabermetric produces a result that goes against sabermetric gospel, it's simply hand waved away as a small sample size.  Conversely if the sabermetric produces a result that aligns with sabermetric gospel, sample size simply isn't mentioned.  

Wallner has 17 PAs in 2026.  He's batting .143 with a .650 OPS.  (Full disclosure, I'm not sure what his wRC+ is so far, which seems to be the metric that the sabermetric crowd have decided is the only one that matters when evaluating Wallner.  I'm sure it's fantastic.)  Might be juuuuuuust a bit early to proclaim Mission Accomplished.  

I've said many times I think Wallner is neither the worst Twin to ever suit up, nor a misunderstood All Star caliber slugger.  The fact that a 28 year old one tool player with less than 5 career WAR conjures up such intense passion amongst fans is really fascinating.  His top 2 bRef comps are Jon Nunnally and, lol, Oswaldo Arcia.  I'd have to go back and look but I doubt there were 500 articles written about Oswaldo Arcia.  

[Cris E]

So is it strikeouts or HR or average? You don't care if he's above average since anyone who isn't Raleigh or Judge or Killebrew is hot garbage?  He had a year with some injuries and was still an average hitter. The rest of his career has been well above average. If you want to reject the stats and say he's not your kind of hitter then say that, but the league is full of these guys today and you are out of step.

[Woof Bronzer]

45 minutes ago, Dave Lemke said:

Judge and Raleigh also strike out approximately 30 % of the time. They should maybe be replaced also?

 Yes, that's what everyone here is saying, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh are the same as Matt Wallner and they should all be cut.  Brilliant.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

I just don't understand the love affair fans with this guy.  compare him to Miguel Sano.  Sano had better career numbers and the fans booed him to death.  Wallner has played right field his entire career.  Sano played a different position almost every year.   Larnach's numbers are not great, but better than Wallner's.   

No, Larnach’s numbers are not better than Wallner’s. Wallner has a better OBP (.344 to .327) and much better ISO (.261 to .169). This leads to a better wRC+ as Wallner is 33% above league average since 2023 while Larnach is 7% of league average.

133 puts Wallner 19th of all major leaguers in that time frame. Larnach is 111 out of 268 players with 900 PAs since 2023.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

 Yes, that's what everyone here is saying, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh are the same as Matt Wallner and they should all be cut.  Brilliant.  

IKR!

[Major League Ready]

I don't have great confidence in Wallner but he was very good in 23/24.  Good enough that I would like to give him a chance to test these changes.  I think there is a spot for him until we come up with two corner OFers good enough to push him aside as a starter and another one to push him aside as a 4th OFer/DH.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

The obsession with Wallner is an unfortunate by product of our lack of game changing offensive players on this roster. Buxton is a good but not elite hitter, Keaschall ahs shown great potential, Jeffers is a pretty good hitter for a catcher (but not so much for any other position), and ......Well, that's pretty much it. We need a couple or really at least 3 of the following guys to become consistent, well above average hitters - Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Martin, and the AAA guys.  Having a  wRC+ above 100 does not make one a consistent, well above average hitter. It's just a number that doesn't discriminate for situational hitting or consistency. Moreover, a guy with a wRC+ of 110 should be hitting in the 6 or 7 hole, not in the middle of the lineup. Wallner has not yet shown that he can be that consistent middle of the order hitter who drives in runs that we desperately need. Our problem is we got nobody else. 

Let's not pretend that Wallner is anything but a decent hitter with the potential to be more. That doesn't mean he should be replaced. On the contrary, he should play every day until we can see if he can become more. But if he can't show that in this his age 28 season, he probably won't be more and we should be looking for a replacement. Until then, we have to focus on him (and Lewis, Lee, Martin, Larnach, etc.) because we need him to be more if we have any hope of competence this year.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Rufus said:

I just don't understand the love affair fans with this guy.  compare him to Miguel Sano.  Sano had better career numbers and the fans booed him to death.  Wallner has played right field his entire career.  Sano played a different position almost every year.   Larnach's numbers are not great, but better than Wallner's.   

Someone refuted the Larnach comparison above.  

On to Sano. . . . 

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/Otkz5

“Legendary Slugger” Sano had approximately three times as many home runs as Wallner — in approximately three times as many plate appearances.  Other than that, the edge (OPS, OBP, SLG) goes to Wallner, and he certainly could develop more in the next 2000 plate appearances.  

Do I think Wallner is a great player?  Nope.  But to act as though he is a failure is a little over the top.  Do I think he needs to keep improving?  You bet.  A 114 OPS+ isn’t bad in a down year, but admittedly his output last year wasn’t sexy.  If only all of our hitters could get a 114 OPS+.  We might be pretty good.  

Again. . . I don’t think that Wallner is destined to turn into Aaron Judge.  I would prefer he be used as a DH much more frequently, although that displaces Larnach from his natural position (which would preferably be DH on someone else’s team, but it’s not).  

Do I think that he has “made the right adjustments”?  Who knows. . . at this point the small sample sizes involved make any meaningful analysis laughable.  Let’s see what he looks like in a month or so and see if he can sustain some good things.  In the meantime, let’s get Lewis and Lee working on some adjustments.  

[Hrbowski]

10 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Do I think that he has “made the right adjustments”?  Who knows. . . at this point the small sample sizes involved make any meaningful analysis laughable.  Let’s see what he looks like in a month or so and see if he can sustain some good things.

Exactly, it will take a few hundred at bats to make a determination possible, and from the eye test he doesn't look significantly improved from his previous seasons to me.

[MGX]

Interesting numbers to look at...

Cal Raleigh had a record setting season & produced 161 wRC+ in 2025. He started his career in 2021 & his career wRC+ is 125. In 2026 he's off to a slow start with a 44 wRC+ & a 54.2% K rate.

Matt Wallner had his least productive season & still managed a 114 wRC+ in 2025. His career started in 2022 & his career wRC+ is 131. In 2026 he's off to a slow start with a 95 wRC+ & a 29.4% K rate.

James Wood played his first full season in 2025 posting a 127 wRC+. Started his career in 2024 & his career wRC+ is 125. He's off to a slow start in 2026 with a 73 wRC+ & 44% K rate.

My guess is Mariners & Nationals fans aren't at all concerned about the slow starts for Raleigh & Wood.

[Coach Wheels]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I think I will just stay out of this thread….😀

I mean 50% of his hits are home runs. In August, if he has 100 hits.............🤔

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Dave Lemke said:

Judge and Raleigh also strike out approximately 30 % of the time. They should maybe be replaced also?

Wallner

Judge

 

[NYCTK]

51 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

High leverage? 52 out of 1060.

High leverage is interesting, because both Fangraphs and BRef have different cut-offs. But I'm interested where you see that, because both FG and BR splits show him with BAD leverage splits, which is my biggest concern with him - that he's merely a stat padder. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Do I think Wallner is a great player?  Nope.  But to act as though he is a failure is a little over the top.  Do I think he needs to keep improving?  You bet.  A 114 OPS+ isn’t bad in a down year, but admittedly his output last year wasn’t sexy. If only all of our hitters could get a 114 OPS+.  We might be pretty good.  

"Wasn't sexy," is probably an understatement. Wallner feasted on subpar pitching in games that were out of reach. I understand that, to a degree, everybody is going to get fat against lesser competition, but Wallner's splits were extreme. 

The bar to clear shouldn't be other prospects that have fizzled. A 114 OPS+ from your starting SS who is capable of actually defending the position would be a revelation for this club. A 114 OPS+ from a guy that struggles to play one of the smaller RFs in baseball and adds nothing on the bases is likely someone you're moving on from. 

[Parker Hageman]

Pointed this out in spring training. 

I think this undoubtedly helps his ability to see pitches better (the atrocious challenge in the opening weekend aside). Small sample size incoming but he drew more walks in spring training and has a 15% chase rate early compared to 28% last year. 

 

matt wallner has elite bat speed & power potential

he’s changed his set-up a bit, closing his open stance some and getting into his hinge more

most notable difference to me is how his head doesn’t travel as far to when the ball is in hitting zone

monster year incoming? pic.twitter.com/L3cm1qBN0t

— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) March 22, 2026

 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, MGX said:

Interesting numbers to look at...

Cal Raleigh had a record setting season & produced 161 wRC+ in 2025. He started his career in 2021 & his career wRC+ is 125. In 2026 he's off to a slow start with a 44 wRC+ & a 54.2% K rate.

Matt Wallner had his least productive season & still managed a 114 wRC+ in 2025. His career started in 2022 & his career wRC+ is 131. In 2026 he's off to a slow start with a 95 wRC+ & a 29.4% K rate.

James Wood played his first full season in 2025 posting a 127 wRC+. Started his career in 2024 & his career wRC+ is 125. He's off to a slow start in 2026 with a 73 wRC+ & 44% K rate.

My guess is Mariners & Nationals fans aren't at all concerned about the slow starts for Raleigh & Wood.

Apples and oranges here...

Raleigh doesn't belong in the discussion. Full stop. He's been one of the best hitters at his position for years and he's coming off and MVP type season. 

If James Wood continues with that horrendous K rate for a few more weeks. Gets sent down to AAA and scuffles there for a while, comes up midseason, replicates his '25 performance, then has a middling 2027 where he adds no value (probably negative value defensively) outside of a very occasional homer we can talk. 

Wallner had ≈ 500 PAs combined in '23/'24 and ≈ 400 PAs last year. 

[MGX]

5 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Apples and oranges here...

Raleigh doesn't belong in the discussion. Full stop. He's been one of the best hitters at his position for years and he's coming off and MVP type season. 

If James Wood continues with that horrendous K rate for a few more weeks. Gets sent down to AAA and scuffles there for a while, comes up midseason, replicates his '25 performance, then has a middling 2027 where he adds no value (probably negative value defensively) outside of a very occasional homer we can talk. 

Wallner had ≈ 500 PAs combined in '23/'24 and ≈ 400 PAs last year. 

All I did was post actual numbers, if you don't agree with the numbers fine.