Rotation, Bullpen, Or St. Paul: Analytically Breaking Down Mick Abel’s Arsenal

[Cody Schoenmann]

Acquired alongside top-100 prospect Eduardo Tait in the 2025 trade deadline deal that sent closer Jhoan Duran to the Philadelphia Phillies, Mick Abel made four appearances for the Minnesota Twins last season, generating an 8.36 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and an 18-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 innings. Abel’s struggles weren’t unique to his tenure in Minnesota, as he posted similarly disappointing numbers (5.04 ERA, 6.30 FIP, and 21-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio) over 25 innings with Philadelphia. Despite struggling during his first cup of coffee in the majors, the 24-year-old still projects to be a serviceable major-league starting pitcher in the near future, given his plus stuff and sustained success in the high minors. What should his role with the 2026 Twins be? Let’s take a look.

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This article is part of a series about the Twins pitchers with the most fluid set of possible roles, as spring training begins. Read previous entries:

• David Festa's Arsenal
• Zebby Matthews' Arsenal
• Taj Bradley's Arsenal

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Mick Abel's Stuff

Abel relies on his four-seam fastball; he threw it 42% of the time last season. Hovering around 96 MPH, the righty’s four-seamer possesses above-average velocity but an average movement profile. With a high spin rate, the heater ate up minor-league hitters over the past four seasons. Unfortunately, he was unable to replicate those results with the pitch at the major-league level in 2025, surrendering a .610 slugging average on it.

Somehow, attacking with a fastball this firm at the top of the zone should work. Philadelphia and Minnesota’s pitching coaches agree, evidently, as the young righty threw his four-seamer up in the zone 33.5% of the time last season, which would have been the highest rate in baseball if Abel pitched enough to qualify for that leaderboard.

Again, Abel’s fastball shape and spin rate grade out better than average, especially once one adjusts for his low three-quarter arm slot. That pitch isn't disappearing from his arsenal any time soon. However, he'll need to locate it more efficiently and become less predictable if he wants to mirror the success he had with the pitch in the high minors.

Mick Abel's Arsenal

Abel’s best pitch is his curve, which he threw at a 21% rate in 2025. He reserves the offering almost exclusively for left-handed batters. As is true with a good changeup, right-handed pitchers are often able to get left-handed hitters to swing over curves low in or below the zone, generating whiffs or inducing weak choppers to the right side of the infield. The pitch was a darling of advanced metrics, with left-handed hitters generating a .296 expected slugging average (xSLG) and a .212 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against the pitch last season. Though it pops out of his hand a bit, lefties have a hard time adjusting to the depth of the pitch's movement. The blue tracer below shows the average trajectory of Abel's curve. Hitters read that either hump, but struggle to bend their swing enough to respond to its two-plane break.

His slider (thrown 12% of the time) was less impressive, generating a .449 xSLG while being thrown only 83 times. Abel throws his slider far more often to righties, hoping to pinpoint the pitch low and outside of the zone. Unfortunately, his slider control is spotty, with his heat map looking like a no-correlation scatter plot. Still, you can see how it's more deceptive to a righty than that curve. Horizontally, the slider and four-seamer stay in the same tunnel longer, before the slider breaks away and the fastball tails back toward the batter.

The righty also throws a sinker and changeup, which combine for a 22% usage rate. Unsurprisingly, he utilizes his change (alongside his curve) to attack left-handed hitters. The pitch was hammered last season, though, with hitters turning into Ted Williams and posting a .417 batting average against it. Abel was slightly more effective throwing his sinker, with hitters instead turning into Tony Gwynn and running a .375 batting average against the pitch. Abel will need to continue refining his pitches with Minnesota’s pitching development. Luckily, being 24 years old and having thrown only 39 innings in the majors, Abel should still be treated with the grace of an unproven pitching prospect.

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2025	Four Seamer	303	92	211	42.1	96.4	73	59	17	10	1	0	6	15	44	.288	.273	.610	.570	.439	.418	90.7	25	2544	6.8	25.9	18.3
2025	Curveball	154	31	123	21.4	82.7	35	35	6	2	1	1	2	16	19	.171	.198	.429	.296	.248	.212	89.4	12	2672	6.8	37.5	23.5
2025	Sinker	95	80	15	13.2	95.4	26	24	9	8	0	1	0	1	23	.375	.339	.458	.398	.386	.351	91.5	7	2469	6.7	12.2	6.3
2025	Slider	83	65	18	11.5	87.3	23	22	5	5	0	0	0	3	19	.227	.271	.227	.449	.222	.320	95.5	14	2419	6.7	16.3	9.4
2025	Changeup	63	4	59	8.8	89.1	12	12	5	5	0	0	0	2	10	.417	.333	.417	.538	.368	.375	90.2	1	1704	6.8	25.0	13.3
2025	Sweeper	22	22	0	3.1	84.5	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	2	3	.200	.228	.200	.313	.176	.237	87.4	34	2781	7.0	41.7	15.4

What Should Be Mick Abel's Role In 2026?

While technically competing with Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa for the fifth rotation spot, Abel has the fewest innings in the majors of that group and the most refinement needed to his arsenal. That being the case, Abel would be best suited to start his 2026 campaign in Triple-A, functioning as a still-developing starting pitching prospect. He still has two minor-league option years, so Minnesota has the luxury of being patient with Abel. He should figure into the rotation at some point in 2026. Yet, given that Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and/or Bailey Ober could no longer be part of the club’s rotation come next season, the team would be wise to continue developing Abel as a starting pitcher in Triple-A, with an eye toward him becoming a rotation stalwart in 2027 and beyond.

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[mikelink45]

What an interesting quartet of pitchers.  Good arms, bad results.  Hopefully the Twins will figure out how to have them prosper.  I remember the struggles of Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax - neither looked good at first - and certainly not HOF. 

Hopefully at least one will turn the corner this year.

[LewFordLives]

No two-seamer???  Faster is not always better. A two-seamer with a little movement would improve all of his secondary offerings. Ask Brad Radke.

[HrbieFan]

Talked with an Asst GM from another team recently about Abel and this was his opinion. He said Abel gets flustered easily and couldn't handle the pressure in Philly. He thought Abel would do better in MN with less pressure on him and definitely not as much scrutiny as he got in Philly. Sure hope he is correct 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Talked with an Asst GM from another team recently about Abel and this was his opinion. He said Abel gets flustered easily and couldn't handle the pressure in Philly. He thought Abel would do better in MN with less pressure on him and definitely not as much scrutiny as he got in Philly. Sure hope he is correct 

Hopefully that problem can be fixed with some confidence, some success and more maturity. The Twins need to figure out whether Able responds to praise or to a kick in the pants as motivation. And Able needs to either channel his frustration into positive results, or lower his levels of frustration. In fact, we could all benefit from some long, quiet, solo walks in the woods. Hang in there Minnesota. We are with you. 

[Coach Wheels]

34 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

Talked with an Asst GM from another team recently about Abel and this was his opinion. He said Abel gets flustered easily and couldn't handle the pressure in Philly. He thought Abel would do better in MN with less pressure on him and definitely not as much scrutiny as he got in Philly. Sure hope he is correct 

Let me be the first to tell Mr. Abel that there will be zero pressure in Minnesota!!! It's likely you'll be pitching in front of 12,000 people or less if that helps reduce your stress even more. 😃

[TJSweens]

This is all subject to spring training when we find out what if any adjustments these pitchers have made and the impact of those adjustments. Leave Abel in the rotation in AAA. He needs refinement. Taj, Festa and Zebby can fight it out for that 5th spot. Due to the WBC, all of them should plenty of run. Depending on ST performances, the two losers can move to the pen or start in AAA. Raya, Morris and Lewis should move to the pen. Leave Prielipp and Rojas as starters in AAA.

[killercarewoliva]

50 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Hopefully that problem can be fixed with some confidence, some success and more maturity. The Twins need to figure out whether Able responds to praise or to a kick in the pants as motivation. And Able needs to either channel his frustration into positive results, or lower his levels of frustration. In fact, we could all benefit from some long, quiet, solo walks in the woods. Hang in there Minnesota. We are with you. 

Abel

[killercarewoliva]

7 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

This is all subject to spring training when we find out what if any adjustments these pitchers have made and the impact of those adjustments. Leave Abel in the rotation in AAA. He needs refinement. Taj, Festa and Zebby can fight it out for that 5th spot. Due to the WBC, all of them should plenty of run. Depending on ST performances, the two losers can move to the pen or start in AAA. Raya, Morris and Lewis should move to the pen. Leave Prielipp and Rojas as starters in AAA.

Prielipp is having a really tough time staying on that mound for five or six innings or so meaning he just keeps getting injured. this looks more like a relief situation meaning you're not out there usually but one inning but maybe there could be a compromise and he could be a long reliever but a starter. I think his days are over for that. everything else said here was very good.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

Talked with an Asst GM from another team recently about Abel and this was his opinion. He said Abel gets flustered easily and couldn't handle the pressure in Philly. He thought Abel would do better in MN with less pressure on him and definitely not as much scrutiny as he got in Philly. Sure hope he is correct 

Abel would probably have the Sonny Gray experience in NY. Let's hope he has the Sonny Gray experience in MN.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Coach Wheels said:

Let me be the first to tell Mr. Abel that there will be zero pressure in Minnesota!!! It's likely you'll be pitching in front of 12,000 people or less if that helps reduce your stress even more. 😃

If he pitches on Pablo Day there will be even less stress 😬 

[bunsen82]

First off,  a FIP of 2.99  -  wow I didn't realize it was that low,  fielding must have been terrible for him.  What I do remember was he was having some location issues in the first couple of games, and he was tipping the secondary pitches.  The hitters were spitting on them and not respecting the secondary pitches and just sitting on the fastball.   

That last game shows,  when teams have to respect the secondary pitches that fastball really plays up especially at 98mph.   Abel has legit stuff.  He is still young and it was his first experience also with lots of changes from the Twins   

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/mick-abel-s-nine-strikeouts-six-scoreless-innings

Go watch that.   So he got 9 strike outs - he made them look silly.  When he has the command, the velocity and the seconday pitches have to be respected,  he can be a #1 type pitcher.  He can be a very good #2 pitcher and there isn't much imagination needed.    

 

 

[OregonTwinsFan]

He has nothing to prove at AAA and should be getting big league experience...but there are other guys ahead of him that are in the same boat, so he will be starting at St. Paul.

[Taildragger8791]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

Let me be the first to tell Mr. Abel that there will be zero pressure in Minnesota!!! It's likely you'll be pitching in front of 12,000 people or less if that helps reduce your stress even more. 😃

12k? You think he’s pitching opening day or something?

[DataNerd]

With the depth we have, he's an easy St Paul guy.  Gives him more opportunity to develop the sweeper in a low-stakes environment, which would really help him against RHH (he had a 26K% against LHH vs 18% for RHH).  It has the velo/spin to be a plus pitch if he can locate it and tunnel the fastball off of it.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Go watch that.   So he got 9 strike outs - he made them look silly.  When he has the command, the velocity and the seconday pitches have to be respected,  he can be a #1 type pitcher.  He can be a very good #2 pitcher and there isn't much imagination needed.

Abel's stuff that day was electric and it was fun watching him and Jeffers just shred the Phillie's lineup.

[TJSweens]

2 hours ago, killercarewoliva said:

Prielipp is having a really tough time staying on that mound for five or six innings or so meaning he just keeps getting injured. this looks more like a relief situation meaning you're not out there usually but one inning but maybe there could be a compromise and he could be a long reliever but a starter. I think his days are over for that. everything else said here was very good.

Prielipp was healthy last year. He has pretty well been healthy since his UCL surgery. The issue now is simply building his pitch count and stretching him out. 

Look at the starter, bullpen, AAA series of columns. Prielipp has a more complete arsenal of plus pitches than the immediate candidates for the rotation. Stretch him out. He could make his starting debut by mid season.

[Fred]

3 hours ago, killercarewoliva said:

Abel

Did you mean to say you don't think he's able? 😄

[DarrenPS]

I'm a big Mick Abel believer, this kid deserves another shot in the majors and it will come this year (even if he most likely won't be with the Twins to start the season). The stuff is there, I hope he uses the most out of his next opportunity to force the Twins hands as he could be a legit #2 with #1 (not quite ace) upside

The Duran trade hurt, and I am not yet sold on Tait, but this kid could make it look way better way sooner

The type you could see starting a future playoff game

[HerbieFan]

100% St.Paul rotation

[cheeseheadgophfan]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

First off,  a FIP of 2.99  -  wow I didn't realize it was that low,  fielding must have been terrible for him.  What I do remember was he was having some location issues in the first couple of games, and he was tipping the secondary pitches.  The hitters were spitting on them and not respecting the secondary pitches and just sitting on the fastball.   

That last game shows,  when teams have to respect the secondary pitches that fastball really plays up especially at 98mph.   Abel has legit stuff.  He is still young and it was his first experience also with lots of changes from the Twins   

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/mick-abel-s-nine-strikeouts-six-scoreless-innings

Go watch that.   So he got 9 strike outs - he made them look silly.  When he has the command, the velocity and the seconday pitches have to be respected,  he can be a #1 type pitcher.  He can be a very good #2 pitcher and there isn't much imagination needed.    

 

 

Best part of that is seeing the hitters he struck and seeing how silly he made them look......Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos, etc.....the stuff is real.  

[Cris E]

3 hours ago, Fred said:

Did you mean to say you don't think he's able? 😄

He's not Cain.

(And Abel belongs in AAA. He's got plenty to learn about composure, pitching behind, and refining his stuff. Compare his last game to his others in MLB and you'll see a gap where he's got some room for improvement.) 

[Jacksson]

4 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

I'm a big Mick Abel believer, this kid deserves another shot in the majors and it will come this year (even if he most likely won't be with the Twins to start the season). The stuff is there, I hope he uses the most out of his next opportunity to force the Twins hands as he could be a legit #2 with #1 (not quite ace) upside

The Duran trade hurt, and I am not yet sold on Tait, but this kid could make it look way better way sooner

The type you could see starting a future playoff game

I STILL don't think ws go enough for Duran.

[DarrenPS]

7 hours ago, Jacksson said:

I STILL don't think ws go enough for Duran.

I understand why people feel that way, but we already know we never would have paid him and he only had 2 years of team control left. Mason Miller for example had a larger return due to having 4 years of team control left

His is still arguably a top 5 closer but his velocity has slowly fallen, so due to these two factors I think getting 2 top 100 prospects is a fair return. Although if Tait shows up in A+ this next year and can't hit the ball I will start to agree with you

Long way of saying I think the return was fair but not mind blowing like De Vries for Miller was

[Danchat]

45 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

I understand why people feel that way, but we already know we never would have paid him and he only had 2 years of team control left. Mason Miller for example had a larger return due to having 4 years of team control left

His is still arguably a top 5 closer but his velocity has slowly fallen, so due to these two factors I think getting 2 top 100 prospects is a fair return. Although if Tait shows up in A+ this next year and can't hit the ball I will start to agree with you

Long way of saying I think the return was fair but not mind blowing like De Vries for Miller was

IIRC I don't believe most sources have Abel as a top 100 prospect.

[Bodie]

On 2/12/2026 at 6:38 AM, mikelink45 said:

What an interesting quartet of pitchers.  Good arms, bad results.  Hopefully the Twins will figure out how to have them prosper.  I remember the struggles of Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax - neither looked good at first - and certainly not HOF. 

Hopefully at least one will turn the corner this year.

You old!

But, correct. 

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, Bodie said:

You old!

But, correct. 

Very old - 8 decades changes a persons' perspective

[DarrenPS]

16 hours ago, Danchat said:

IIRC I don't believe most sources have Abel as a top 100 prospect.

They used to. He isn't eligible on a lot of lists any more due to service time. I believe he got as high as 40's in previous seasons

[Bodie]

21 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Very old - 8 decades changes a persons' perspective

Well, I know five and a half will.  So I assume you are right!

[Twins33]

St Paul rotation. He needs to get his walks down further. If he does, I’ll jump on his bandwagon.