Do Twins Have One of Baseball’s Most Underrated Farm Systems?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (Photo of Mick Abel)

In recent weeks, MLB Pipeline has been rolling out results from a poll of executives across baseball, asking them to weigh in on a wide range of prospect-related questions. One of the more interesting categories focused on which farm systems are the most underrated. Minnesota finished tied for fifth in that poll, trailing only the Pirates, Marlins, Cubs, and Reds.

At first glance, that placement might surprise fans who have watched Minnesota’s system in recent years. But when you dig into how the Twins have found talent, developed arms, and restocked through trades, it becomes easier to see why decision makers around the league view Minnesota as a sneaky strong organization for prospects.

Finding and Developing Sleepers
The Twins picked up several down-ballot votes in the underrated category, and much of that credit likely stems from their ability to identify pitchers who outperform their draft position. Minnesota has made a habit of finding college arms outside the early rounds and turning them into legitimate big league contributors.

Bailey Ober is the most obvious example. Drafted in the 12th round in 2017, Ober lacked eye-popping velocity but showed elite command and a deceptive release. The Twins leaned into those traits, helped him add strength, and trusted his ability to miss bats at the top of the zone. The result has been a durable and effective starter who looks nothing like a late-round flier.

David Festa followed a similar path. Taken in the 13th round in 2021, Festa arrived with solid stuff but little fanfare. Minnesota worked on refining his fastball shape and sharpening his breaking pitches, and he quickly turned into one of the system’s fastest risers. Festa now profiles as a legitimate rotation option with strikeout upside, another example of development trumping draft pedigree.

Zebby Matthews may be the most impressive case study yet, as an 8th-round pick in 2022. A college pitcher with strong analytical markers but limited exposure, Matthews exploded once he entered the Twins system. Velocity gains, improved pitch design, and a clearer developmental plan turned him into one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the organization. That kind of jump does not happen by accident, and it reinforces why the Twins are viewed as a team that finds value where others might not.

These three examples are all pitchers, so the Twins must start finding and developing sleepers on the position player side.

Best at Developing Pitchers
Minnesota likely believes this is one of its strengths, even if the on-field results have not always matched the internal confidence. Pitcher development is complicated and rarely linear, but the Twins have consistently shown the ability to add velocity to college arms once they enter the system. Ober, Festa, and Matthews are prime examples, but they are not alone. The organization has leaned heavily into modern training methods, biomechanics, and pitch design to help arms reach new ceilings.

The Twins also deserve credit for what they have done with pitchers acquired from outside the organization. Joe Ryan arrived from Tampa Bay with a strong fastball and feel for pitching, but Minnesota helped him better optimize his arsenal and sequencing. Pablo Lopez took a similar step forward after coming over from Miami, adding new wrinkles to his pitch mix and elevating his overall performance. Development does not stop once a player reaches the majors, and the Twins have shown they can still add value at that stage.

Best at Acquiring Prospects in Trades
Another area where Minnesota quietly earned recognition is in acquiring prospects through trades. Last season’s trade deadline sell-off brought in a wave of young talent, though the true verdict on those deals remains years away.

Players like Eduardo Tait, Mick Abel, and Kendry Rojas now sit at various points along the development curve. How well the Twins nurture that group and eventually translate it into big-league production will determine whether this reputation holds. The raw materials are there, but prospect capital only matters if it turns into wins at the highest level.

There is also a looming fork in the road ahead. If the Twins continue their teardown at the 2026 trade deadline, veterans like Lopez, Ryan, and Ryan Jeffers could bring back another significant haul of young talent. By next winter, Minnesota could look very different in this category, depending on how aggressively they move and how effectively they maximize returns.

For now, league executives seem to believe the Twins deserve more credit than they receive. Minnesota may not always dominate the headlines with top-ranked systems. Still, the combination of sleeper finds, pitcher development, and opportunistic trading explains why the organization continues to be viewed as one of baseball’s most underrated farms.

How do you feel the Twins rate in the categories mentioned above? Are the Twins one of baseball’s most underrated farm systems? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[old nurse]

They certainly have developed pitchers. Hitters other than Ryan on the major league level are still in the show me stage. Buxton was developed when they got here 

[palmspringstwinsfan]

Twins can’t be that good at developing players-4th place 2 years in a row in baseball’s weakest division. 

[Jim H]

The Twins traded 40% of their roster at the deadline for mostly prospects and now they are considered to have an underrated farm system? What kind of farm system did they have before the trades, then? I understand trying to have positive take on things and there are certainly some good prospects in the system and a lot of interesting ones. But if adding around a dozen prospects at the deadline only makes your farm system underrated, I think at best that is pretty disappointing.

[Nashvilletwin]

Ok, so the Twins have managed to turn a few lower draft picks into about average major league pitchers (#3-5 starter types).  They haven’t developed a similar (or any, for that matter) positions player since Jeffers.

I guess having a good minor league system is a prerequisite for developing internal talent into viable major leaguers.  But if none of them ever make it, then does it really matter?

I’d much rather have a dismal minor league system that at least produces a true major leaguer every year or two.

The point is that getting results at Target Field is what counts.  I’m glad that Twins executives can slap themselves on the back about how great their minor league system is while the major league club never sees the results.

Listen - it’s either the minor league system has actually been overrated or the Twins under Rocco just plain stunk developing the talent handed over to them.  It’s one or the other. 

The lack of accountability and responsibility in this franchise is a joke.

[HerbieFan]

Now the real test....develop a few into good major leaguers, a process SORELY lacking under Falvey and Baldelli.  Maybe Shelton and his staff can do a better job.

[LastOnePicked]

I think this is very much oversold. The Twins don't appear in any of the following "best of" categories:

Best Farm System (DET is third)

Best Use of the Draft (DET is fifth)

Best Use of the International Market (CLE is fourth)

Best at Developing Pitchers (CLE is fourth)

Best at Developing Hitters (DET is third)

If anything, the results of this poll make a pretty good case for firing Falvey and Zoll immediately. The Twins are simply not top-tier in anything.

 

[Parfigliano]

No.  No they do not.  

Who has impacted at the MLB Level?

[the_brute_squad]

7 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I think this is very much oversold. The Twins don't appear in any of the following "best of" categories:

Best Farm System (DET is third)

Best Use of the Draft (DET is fifth)

Best Use of the International Market (CLE is fourth)

Best at Developing Pitchers (CLE is fourth)

Best at Developing Hitters (DET is third)

If anything, the results of this poll make a pretty good case for firing Falvey and Zoll immediately. The Twins are simply not top-tier in anything.

 

I definitely disagree with the column in the Twins developing pitchers after college. Getting them to throw harder to the point of injuring themselves is not teaching them to pitch.

Adding movement, breaking pitches, location is teaching them how to pitch. 

Hopefully one day baseball will go back to the days where a starter isn't gassed after four innings and five bullpen pitchers are used to finish the game. Man, that's just ugly baseball. 

[Brett]

MLB.com had us 2nd after the trade deadline, and ESPN has us 5th. How are we underrated?

[Russ]

Did the Front Office request positive articles ?

[Whitey333]

Just more bs propaganda from Twins trying to stir up even a little bit of interest.  Article is way over blown.  Seems to me we have wrecked more young players development and careers than helped.  Too many can't miss prospects do just that:  they miss.  Click bait article? It obviously isn't serious!

[mikelink45]

I would love to see an analysis of the top five rated players in our minor leagues for the last 10 years and where they are now.  I know Royce and Lee were top rated players and are in the majors, but only because the Twins do not have players good enough to fill those positions and (acquiring Ryan Kreidler, Eric Wagaman, and Orlando Arcia to provide depth on the margins. - quoted from another essay) is not giving them any competition.  Wallner is still a question mark and all the earlier articles wanted us to cut Larnach.  Julien in on the MLB club because we have acquired such lousy free agents for the bench, but he had one year and fizzled out.  Miranda is gone.  Zebby and Festa are looked at as success but Zebby has a MLB career of -0.4 WAR and a 5.92 ERA for his two years.  Festa has been hurt, but when he was on the mound he has a two year WAR of 0.8 and a 5.12 ERA. 

I am not interested in whether we have enough bodies to fill all the minor league rosters.  Like other commentators I want to see a steady progression of major league successes.

 

[Otaknam]

The 2026 season will be the turning point for this franchise. They will either successfully integrate young players from their “highly rated” farm system, who perform at the major league level, or this regime needs to be replaced. Falvey is now in his 10th year as GM, with lackluster results at best. So this is on him.

[bean5302]

Reading through the actual article makes this topic seem awfully sensationalized. As noted above, the Twins rarely appear on the lists. The Twins aren't featured in the images for the best farm system, drafting success, international signings or a number of other images. Sometimes they get a last place "also mentioned" kind of status.

The Twins have a system propped up by a couple players. The system is thin at the top right now, though it can easily change depending on the fortunes of various prospects. I think the system has a lot of middle tier to notable lower tier talent.

[Linus]

12 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Ok, so the Twins have managed to turn a few lower draft picks into about average major league pitchers (#3-5 starter types).  They haven’t developed a similar (or any, for that matter) positions player since Jeffers.

I guess having a good minor league system is a prerequisite for developing internal talent into viable major leaguers.  But if none of them ever make it, then does it really matter?

I’d much rather have a dismal minor league system that at least produces a true major leaguer every year or two.

The point is that getting results at Target Field is what counts.  I’m glad that Twins executives can slap themselves on the back about how great their minor league system is while the major league club never sees the results.

Listen - it’s either the minor league system has actually been overrated or the Twins under Rocco just plain stunk developing the talent handed over to them.  It’s one or the other. 

The lack of accountability and responsibility in this franchise is a joke.

Preach. The point of the farm system is to produce impactful major leaguers. 

[terrydactyls]

If Ober is a prime example of how the Twins add velocity to late-round pitchers, I have a question.  Did he pitch underhanded in college?

[EGFTShaw]

15 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

If Ober is a prime example of how the Twins add velocity to late-round pitchers, I have a question.  Did he pitch underhanded in college?

high 80s, 88-89 coming out of college.

[EGFTShaw]

Underrated?  I don't know what that means.

Underrated by whom?

I think recently the Twins have done a good job of developing pitchers.

I think the farm system does not impinge hitters, make them worse.

The farm system does NOT do enough on fielding and defense.

The job with pitchers means I am OK with the pitching acquisitions

But it will be improved hitting and improved defense that will take this team anywhere in 2026.

Regime change in managing helps provide a sliver of optimism.

But whatever happened to the Twins Way, the Piranhas and team that focused on defense, base running and other things that can be taught and does not solely rely on Talent.

[bunsen82]

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Reading through the actual article makes this topic seem awfully sensationalized. As noted above, the Twins rarely appear on the lists. The Twins aren't featured in the images for the best farm system, drafting success, international signings or a number of other images. Sometimes they get a last place "also mentioned" kind of status.

The Twins have a system propped up by a couple players. The system is thin at the top right now, though it can easily change depending on the fortunes of various prospects. I think the system has a lot of middle tier to notable lower tier talent.

First off the article is weird as it seems to be more how the Twins have done with prospects or trades than the actual system.  

As to the current farm system it is viewed as anywhere from a #2 to #5 ranked farm system.  We have more high end talent than we have ever had, but I guess if you want to knock it and say we only have 1 top 15 prospect,  I guess maybe but there is very few teams or situations where they have multiple top 10 prospects.  Jenkins and Culpepper both looked like very good prospects at premium positions.  

Now if you are saying the talent falls off, I extremely disagree.  The depth of the organization is currently what is impressive.  Rodriguez has an interesting profile but most likely is an above average major leaguer with upside.  Tait is young for C - I am ok where he is ranked.  But for hitters we have near term help in Gonzalez and Mendez whose bats are currently likely MLB level for contact.  Power is still a work in progress.   You have Winokur and Young who are potential unicorns.  You have lots of arms with high end potential and throughout the minor leagues (a true pipeline).  We have prospects all the way to around 30 or lower that likely have an above average shot at making the big leagues.  For reference sake Fedko isn't ranked in our top 30 prospects and Rosario is 29.   Every year there is variation in performance and the lists,  but this is by far the strongest farm system has been since Falvey took over.  

[Blyleven2011]

The underrated /  overated  system of prospects ...

The system seems strong enough to strengthen pitching  but they lack at strengthening a position players ability to hit and field at the major league level  ..

Cody mentioned that development shouldn't stop at the major league level and I agree , there are adjustments to be made at the highest level but we haven't been able to tap into that to get over that hump from AAA to the majors on the position side of our lineup , we are failing at producing hitters and failing to develop fielding ...

Pitching has been strong for 3 seasons now but hitting has gone in the other direction ...

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

First off the article is weird as it seems to be more how the Twins have done with prospects or trades than the actual system.  

As to the current farm system it is viewed as anywhere from a #2 to #5 ranked farm system.  We have more high end talent than we have ever had, but I guess if you want to knock it and say we only have 1 top 15 prospect,  I guess maybe but there is very few teams or situations where they have multiple top 10 prospects.  Jenkins and Culpepper both looked like very good prospects at premium positions.  

Now if you are saying the talent falls off, I extremely disagree.  The depth of the organization is currently what is impressive.  Rodriguez has an interesting profile but most likely is an above average major leaguer with upside.  Tait is young for C - I am ok where he is ranked.  But for hitters we have near term help in Gonzalez and Mendez whose bats are currently likely MLB level for contact.  Power is still a work in progress.   You have Winokur and Young who are potential unicorns.  You have lots of arms with high end potential and throughout the minor leagues (a true pipeline).  We have prospects all the way to around 30 or lower that likely have an above average shot at making the big leagues.  For reference sake Fedko isn't ranked in our top 30 prospects and Rosario is 29.   Every year there is variation in performance and the lists,  but this is by far the strongest farm system has been since Falvey took over.  

Walker Jenkins is a legitimate high end prospect today. Not mid year last year or the beginning of last year.

After Jenkins, there is a dramatic fall off to Culpepper, Tait, Emma types who are all in the 50-100+ prospect ranges. They're Tier 2 prospects right now.

Every team in baseball has 10 Winokurs. Fedko and Rosario are non-prospects. They were left unprotected and ignored by 29 other teams in baseball.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

As to the current farm system it is viewed as anywhere from a #2 to #5 ranked farm system. 

Fangraphs has them at 12th, with CLE and DET well ahead of them. I couldn't find any updated rankings that had them higher than 9th. Am I missing a more current ranking?

[The Great Hambino]

Someone once said that when a headline of an article or a news story asks a question, the answer is almost always "no".  Oftentimes it's used to make baseless claims or accusations under the guise of "just asking questions".  Sometimes it's used to manufacture a positive spin on a rudderless baseball franchise

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Fangraphs has them at 12th, with CLE and DET well ahead of them. I couldn't find any updated rankings that had them higher than 9th. Am I missing a more current ranking?

I don't think there are any 2026 rankings for the Twins out there yet. Prospects1500 came out with their 2025 list for the Twins in January last year, but I don't know how they roll those out. They've got like 3-4 teams done so far. MLB hasn't updated yet. Fangraphs has only 8 of 32 teams in their 2026 report right now.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Fangraphs has them at 12th, with CLE and DET well ahead of them. I couldn't find any updated rankings that had them higher than 9th. Am I missing a more current ranking?

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46070464/2025-mlb-prospect-rankings-update-farm-systems-30-teams-mets-dodgers-mariners

Here they are 5th

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Walker Jenkins is a legitimate high end prospect today. Not mid year last year or the beginning of last year.

After Jenkins, there is a dramatic fall off to Culpepper, Tait, Emma types who are all in the 50-100+ prospect ranges. They're Tier 2 prospects right now.

Every team in baseball has 10 Winokurs. Fedko and Rosario are non-prospects. They were left unprotected and ignored by 29 other teams in baseball.

Walker Jenkins is currently ranked with a Scouting grade of 60.     

From prospect 21 through 100 they are all rated with a scouting grade of 55.   Affectively they are all in the same bucket.    For the Twins we have 3 in the bucket with seems pretty and is statically higher than we would have anticipate.  

We have 1 in the elite bucket.  

We then have 6 prospects with a grade of 50.  Now, I do think they are criminally underrating Soto.  Soto still has #1 pitching prospect ability and is rated as a 45.  He had a 1.8 ERA at A+ last year in the limited games before being shut down for injury.   He has a fastball rated as a 60, slider as a 55,  Changeup 55 and control of 50.   That is just stupidity.   

Every team in baseball does not have 10 Quentin Young or Brandon Winokurs.   

What Fedko and Rosario is excellent depth for MLB teams.   They may never become MLB players or starters,  but they could.  There weren't high expectations for a player like Luis Arraez either or Brian Dozier.    

Its the overall depth.  There is legit prospects 40 players deep.  

[Bodie]

7 hours ago, the_brute_squad said:

I definitely disagree with the column in the Twins developing pitchers after college. Getting them to throw harder to the point of injuring themselves is not teaching them to pitch.

Adding movement, breaking pitches, location is teaching them how to pitch. 

Hopefully one day baseball will go back to the days where a starter isn't gassed after four innings and five bullpen pitchers are used to finish the game. Man, that's just ugly baseball. 

We want pitchers, not belly itchers!

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Walker Jenkins is currently ranked with a Scouting grade of 60.     

From prospect 21 through 100 they are all rated with a scouting grade of 55.   Affectively they are all in the same bucket.    For the Twins we have 3 in the bucket with seems pretty and is statically higher than we would have anticipate.  

We have 1 in the elite bucket.  

We then have 6 prospects with a grade of 50.  Now, I do think they are criminally underrating Soto.  Soto still has #1 pitching prospect ability and is rated as a 45.  He had a 1.8 ERA at A+ last year in the limited games before being shut down for injury.   He has a fastball rated as a 60, slider as a 55,  Changeup 55 and control of 50.   That is just stupidity.   

Every team in baseball does not have 10 Quentin Young or Brandon Winokurs.   

What Fedko and Rosario is excellent depth for MLB teams.   They may never become MLB players or starters,  but they could.  There weren't high expectations for a player like Luis Arraez either or Brian Dozier.    

Its the overall depth.  There is legit prospects 40 players deep.  

I don't know what source you're using, and I don't think you're using "scouting grade" data correctly.

If Fedko and Rosario were excellent depth for MLB teams, they'd have been selected in Rule 5. They weren't. The rest of the league has spoken pretty strongly on that. 

Brandon Winokur was a mid-teens org level prospect (figure #300-500 overall in MLB) to start last year and he was barely able to hold his own in the low minors. He's got athleticism going for him and he's got some real ceiling. He'll be in his age 21 season and should be repeating High-A this year. There are a ton of those types of prospects in MLB. Quentin Young? A mid 2nd round pick in a weak draft who K'd 41% of the time in A-Ball? It was only 22 PA, and he would have probably been better off starting in Rookie Ball, but he was clearly outmatched in Ft Myers. Hopefully it was just a pressure thing and he's able to adjust and catch up this year.

I couldn't find much corroboration to support your seemingly bullish positions on Twins prospects.

[bunsen82]

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know what source you're using, and I don't think you're using "scouting grade" data correctly.

If Fedko and Rosario were excellent depth for MLB teams, they'd have been selected in Rule 5. They weren't. The rest of the league has spoken pretty strongly on that. 

Brandon Winokur was a mid-teens org level prospect (figure #300-500 overall in MLB) to start last year and he was barely able to hold his own in the low minors. He's got athleticism going for him and he's got some real ceiling. He'll be in his age 21 season and should be repeating High-A this year. There are a ton of those types of prospects in MLB. Quentin Young? A mid 2nd round pick in a weak draft who K'd 41% of the time in A-Ball? It was only 22 PA, and he would have probably been better off starting in Rookie Ball, but he was clearly outmatched in Ft Myers. Hopefully it was just a pressure thing and he's able to adjust and catch up this year.

I couldn't find much corroboration to support your seemingly bullish positions on Twins prospects.

This is the MLB ranking system.  They rate them on 2 processes,   an individuals rank,  and then their skills for a scouting grade.  Connor Griffin and McGonigle are rated 65.  After that you have a group of 60's,  and then 55's.   Yes there may be some variation slight in the difference between someone rated 20th and 100th,  but in actuality the variability on those types of player is smaller.  Their scouting grade has a better performance regression than stating they are a 50th rated prospect and a 2nd tier prospect.   

To be fair what is the difference between Culpepper - Franklin Arias, George Lombard and Jett Williams ranked 24th, 25th and 30th).   Other than them being younger,  I currently like Culpeppers profile and stats and performance last year better than all 3 of those players (I like Williams bat better - but he will not be a shortstop in the future).  Thats  a personal opinion,  but there is not a significant variability from these prospects and Culpepper.    

So lets not minimize players just because you don't like Falvey.  

As to Winokur and Young - its the type of profile.  The chances of them hitting are slim.  Even still lets say the hit tool develops for Winokur or Young.  With their athletic profile, strength and speed,  they are suddenly top 20 prospects.   Those type of individuals don't grow on trees.    

https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/twins-farm-system-ranked-second-best-all-of-baseball

ESPN - said the Twins had the top 2 farm system last August.   This is what I was referring to.   

We also have 3 young players who just came off prospect lists,  in Abel, Keaschall and Matthews.   Lee and Bradley are still considered young with upside but that isn't for this discussion.   

For myself I really like the 5 following hitters - Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Gonzalez, and Mendez. 

As to pitchers - We have high end players - Priellipp, Hill, Soto  

I am really interested in how Quick, Ellwanger, Barr, and Reitz and do this year.