If the Twins Won’t Spend, They Need to Trade Ryan Jeffers Now

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Derek Falvey keeps saying he wants to add to the roster, to keep the starting pitching intact, and that he intends to compete. That said, the Twins don’t seem to be any closer to telegraphing intentions around payroll, and who knows when we will learn the identity or viability of the limited partners they hope to bring on. With the winter meetings right around the corner, if the Twins aren’t going to spend enough to fight for more than a .500 record, they should be actively shopping Ryan Jeffers as he enters the final year of team control.

Being a catcher is a tough gig, with a lot of complexity to it. Beyond the physical toll of crouching, taking foul balls off the body, and having to pop up quickly to fire a throw to second, they need to call the game for an entire pitching staff. In today’s game, that means having a relationship with 13 different pitchers, plus the dozen or so more that spend a day, a week, or a month on the roster. Catchers have to be familiar with each pitcher’s repertoire, have a feel for proper sequencing for them, and quickly gauge the relative effectiveness of their arsenal on any given day. That’s…a lot.

If you are a manager of people in your daily life, you know how difficult it is to be up to speed with the personalities, strengths, and needs of the people who work for you. Now, imagine being dropped into a new environment without the luxury of time to get to know people. It’s tough, right?

By nature, any team trading for a starting catcher at the deadline is in the hunt. Time is dwindling, and every game matters. There aren’t months, or even weeks, to ramp up. There isn’t time to study film, or receive several bullpen sessions. Further, any team looking to trade for a catcher is doing so for a reason. Probably, it’s because they either lost their starting catcher to injury, or he has been ineffective at the plate to the point of needing to be relegated to backup duty. These factors combine to mean that the pool of teams looking to trade for a catcher is limited, indeed.

Because of all of these factors, starting catchers are very rarely traded mid-season; it just doesn’t make a ton of sense.

In fact, as best as I can tell, only seven starting catchers have been traded at the deadline in the past decade. Jonathan Lucroy was dealt twice, in 2016 and 2017. Martin Maldonado was traded twice, in 2018 and 2019. Austin Nola, in 2020, went from the Mariners to the Padres. Yan Gomes moved in 2021. Austin Hedges was traded in both 2020 and 2023. Old friend Wilson Ramos found a new home in both 2018 and 2021. Finally, old friend Christian Vasquez was traded from the Red Sox to the Astros in 2022. That’s not many trades at all, compared to any other position.

Based on all this, it’s safe to assume that hoping the stars align for a trade at the deadline is not a good bet. It’s also safe to assume the Twins do not intend to give Jeffers a qualifying offer next offseason. And, I can’t imagine them looking to sign him to an extension as he would surely command somewhere between $10 and $15 million a year over at least three seasons.

Jeffers is an above-average hitter at a tough position, is well-liked, cerebral, and is expected to be above-average at using the ABS challenge system to his advantage behind the dish. While he struggles with pitch framing and pop time, he would still have very real value to any team looking to upgrade at catcher.

Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 2.0 fWAR, the same as the best free agent catcher currently available, J.T. Realmuto. The latter, per The Athletic, is due for a three-year, $45 million deal even as he enters the twilight of his career. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Jeffers is expected to cost around $6.6 million in his final turn through arbitration and comes without that pesky multi-year aspect, which many teams would presumably like to avoid heading into the uncertainty of the 2027 CBA negotiations. There is surplus value to be had, and plenty of teams would pay for that.

It’s time for Falvey to pick a lane, but if it’s a rebuild, whatever he wants to call it, it’s time to trade Jeffers before losing him for nothing at season’s end.

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[jorgenswest]

Would Jeffers be beneficial to developing the pitching staff? Does it make a difference going into the season that he knows most of the pitchers? Does that have enough value to wait until the deadline?

I don’t know the answer to these questions but I do know that this is a team sport. Players have value beyond the stat line. There is the unmeasured value of how much they contribute to the growth and success of their teammates.

i certainly would not be in the “take the best offer you can get” mode with Jeffers. Short of being blown away, I think I would treat him as if he just signed a one year deal and let him help the team and contribute to the development of the pitching staff until the deadline.

[tony&rodney]

There are two or three big questions that are not addressed.

1. What team or teams will be willing to add Jeffers, a guy with one year to go before free agency?

2. Who will the Twins acquire to fill the full time catching position?

3. What is Jeffers' value in a trade?

Ryan Jeffers might be difficult to trade due to those three issues. At some point the Twins need to trade for a catcher who can play behind Jeffers this year. Tait, if he develops quickly, could be an option by 2028. Jackson was signed to back up a guy with the starter catching 110-120 games. Rock and a hard place at catcher.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Wouldn’t an experienced catcher with this pitching staff be a good thing? And TB ere is absolutely time. Who knows about the 2027 season already, but it’s not at all a rush right now. 
Lots of things could also still happen at the deadline if necessary 

[thelanges5]

I’d like them to keep Jeffers and also use a rule 5 pick on Daniel Susac. Catching is still a position with little to no depth for the Twins. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=susac-000dan&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=diamondcentric.net&utm_campaign=2025-11-25_br

[old nurse]

The game of IF is a funny thing. People have talked the if the Twins don’t spend and people have hoped aboard that line, trashing what has not happened.  Opine that projections systems say Larnach could OPS .750 and be useful and see what happens. 

[terrydactyls]

33 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Wouldn’t an experienced catcher with this pitching staff be a good thing? And TB ere is absolutely time. Who knows about the 2027 season already, but it’s not at all a rush right now. 
Lots of things could also still happen at the deadline if necessary 

What's a "TB ere"?

[rdehring]

Is no one listening to the reports indicating that Falvey isn't going to cut more from his roster?  Rather, looking to add?  But yet, another daily article(s) indicating otherwise.

Looking forward to being a fan of the 2026 Twins.  With whomever is on that team.

[shimrod]

11 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Is no one listening to the reports indicating that Falvey isn't going to cut more from his roster?

We hear it. Question is who believes it?

It's not a good negotiating tactic to admit every player making more than rookie or vet minimum will be jettisoned. Pretending you want to contend will ideally result in slightly better offers. Slightly. The game is won at the margins. 

[bean5302]

Ryan Jeffers is not above average. He's below average, technically.

fWAR
2025 = Rank of 26 catchers with 350+ PA (15 of 26) 42%
2024 = Rank of 32 catchers with 300+ PA (22 of 32) 31%
2023 = Rank of 31 catchers with 300+ PA (14 of 31) 55%

He's been a pretty durable, below average defensive catcher with a league average-ish bat in potential decline. That's a solid profile for a reliable starting catcher, but it's not great or above average.

I've always been annoyed by these "the Twins owe mediocre player <x> something." 

Jeffers doesn't even have a ton of trade value. +12 on BaseballTradeValues.com. It's fine. He'd be expected to bring back something of value or he could potentially be packaged to get a little more from somebody, but he's not going to change the Twins' farm system or something.

Appreciate him for what he is, but as is history with Twins fans, any player who is with the team for more than 2-3 years becomes "special" just based on the older history of this team being nothing more than a farm system for competitive clubs.

[tony&rodney]

23 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Is no one listening to the reports indicating that Falvey isn't going to cut more from his roster?  Rather, looking to add?  But yet, another daily article(s) indicating otherwise.

 

How does a team add to a full roster without cutting?

[Patzky]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Would Jeffers be beneficial to developing the pitching staff? Does it make a difference going into the season that he knows most of the pitchers? Does that have enough value to wait until the deadline?

I don’t know the answer to these questions but I do know that this is a team sport. Players have value beyond the stat line. There is the unmeasured value of how much they contribute to the growth and success of their teammates.

i certainly would not be in the “take the best offer you can get” mode with Jeffers. Short of being blown away, I think I would treat him as if he just signed a one year deal and let him help the team and contribute to the development of the pitching staff until the deadline.

Hate to even say this because there will be much gnashing of teeth but if you trade Jeffers, see what deal you can re- sign Vazquez for. "KNOWS THE PITCHERS" doesn't shine so bright now does it.. and Shelton has his number.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

What's a "TB ere"?

Surely a autocorrect-assisted fat-finger/typo of "there"?

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Is no one listening to the reports indicating that Falvey isn't going to cut more from his roster?  Rather, looking to add?  But yet, another daily article(s) indicating otherwise.

Looking forward to being a fan of the 2026 Twins.  With whomever is on that team.

What's really being considered in the article is "what's the plan regarding Jeffers?"  Team control runs out after this season, so he's in a different category than Buxton/Ryan/Lopez. Sign him to an extension, which will be of similar length but higher value compared to the Vazquez free agent signing?  If not, then there needs to be a more detailed plan: let him walk after hopefully a productive 2026, or plan to trade him at the deadline, or trade him now.

The choice among these four options probably depends in part on the team's finances, which (my guess) won't be clear even to the team until some business is conducted at the Winter Meetings to decide on ownership stakes.  Thus, a lot of hemming and hawing in the article.  We don't know, because they don't even know.

It's a bit like Schroedinger's Cat: we don't know anything until the box is opened, and there's reason to think the box opens next week.

[Cory Engelhardt]

37 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

What's a "TB ere"?

Stupid fat fingers of mine. That’s just supposed to say there. I see it now 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Stupid fat fingers of mine. 

I should have waited to give you time to respond, I see now.  However, if you are interested in slimming down those fingers, I asked ChatGPT and it gave me these helpful tips:

Finger Fitness Program (results not guaranteed)

• Repetitive Strength Training:
  Type the word “antidisestablishmentarianism” five times without looking. Builds precision.

• Fine-Motor Pilates:
  Practice hitting the Backspace key with elegance and control.

• Grip Conditioning:
  Squeeze a stress ball while muttering, “I meant to type that.”

 

(I replied: "don't quit your day job, R2D2.")

[Parfigliano]

15 minutes ago, shimrod said:

We hear it. Question is who believes it?

It's not a good negotiating tactic to admit every player making more than rookie or vet minimum will be jettisoned. Pretending you want to contend will ideally result in slightly better offers. Slightly. The game is won at the margins. 

I don't believe anything Falvey says about anything.  I also understand he can't come out and say TC will not be competitive and the big contracts will be dealt cause it's a total teardown rebuild.  Honesty like that would be bad for tik sales and trade negotiations.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Larnach could OPS .750 and be useful and see what happens. 

Larnach OPSing 750 isn't all that useful. On account of him being a bat only player. 

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Larnach OPSing 750 isn't all that useful. On account of him being a bat only player. 

Ops .750 makes him a just below median starting DH. If that is not useful to you…….

[DJL44]

I'll keep hoping for a contract extension. The team has a need at catcher for several years and the cash to pay him.

[Brandon]

Sometimes the best value is to let the player play out his contract and walk.  Jeffers knows the Twins system and can help develop the back end starters and bullpen.  One of Ryan or Lopez would need to be traded for a Jeffers extension.  But I can also see the Twins signing Jeffers to an extension.  A 4 year 64 -68 million deal seems reasonable to me.  Tait is 18 and could be up at 20 or 21.  A split share 55/45 seems about right for a rookie who is likely to start for years to get.  And 50/50 that last season.  There will probably be some 1B or DH time available for those two guys as well.  Jeffers would be 33 at the end of a 4 year extension.  

[tony&rodney]

Gary Sanchez is still available.

[Nashvilletwin]

Twins are starting the year essentially with the squad they have.  Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers are not getting moved this offseason.  None of them.

What’s the risk? Come July when we are 10 games under .500 the next big purge will occur and all four plus others will be gone   Let’s hope they are all healthy and performing  It’s hard to imagine that with the strike pending that Ryan and Buxton will get more than their current peak value  Lopez, maybe  Jeffers is a rounding error in this discussion, but could bring more at the deadline  

 

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Brandon said:

A 4 year 64 -68 million deal seems reasonable to me.  

Cal Raleigh gets paid $17.5M a season. Jeffers is no Cal Raleigh. Realmuto made $23M but he's a potential Hall of Famer.

Catchers don't get paid that much. Jeffers is most likely getting 3/$36 if he goes to free agency next year. Including this arbitration season, that's a 4 year $42M contract.

[Fred]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

I’d like them to keep Jeffers and also use a rule 5 pick on Daniel Susac. Catching is still a position with little to no depth for the Twins. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=susac-000dan&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=diamondcentric.net&utm_campaign=2025-11-25_br

Jackson is out of options, therefore, unless they're willing to take a chance on losing him when they DFA him, they need to keep him on the active roster. If they claim a rule 5 guy, they are obligated to carry him on the active roster if they want to keep him. Maybe one of the three can play an adequate 1st base. That's the only way I can see to carry Jeffers, Jackson, and Susac, otherwise you have 2 catchers on your 4 man bench.

[mnfireman]

31 minutes ago, Brandon said:

But I can also see the Twins signing Jeffers to an extension.  A 4 year 64 -68 million deal seems reasonable to me.   

$16-$17 MM per year is Cal Raleigh money, way too much of an overpay...

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/_/position/c

[NYCTK]

33 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Ops .750 makes him a just below median starting DH. If that is not useful to you…….

Always strive to be just below median.

 

 

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

$16-$17 MM per year is Cal Raleigh money, way too much an overpay...

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/_/position/c

That average seriously misrepresents free-agency value.  Every long-term contract is different, but the one Seattle signed Raleigh to blends his arbitration years with some free agency.  B-r.com shows it as:

$2.67M, 12.67, 13.67, 24.67, 24.67, 24.67

It's pretty clear what both sides of the bargaining table thought was a fair value for his free-agency years, modulo it being guaranteed to him several years in advance.  The Mariners may feel they've locked in someone they'd have to pay even more to, when the time came.

And free-agency is exactly what the Twins and Jeffers would be bargaining over.  We've already gotten the benefit of his cheap years.  Jeffers isn't Raleigh, but he isn't Vazquez either. 

[gman]

I am on the "we'll know more after the owners meeting" boat. But then again I'm also on the "they'll go ahead and blow everything up boat". I just hope my two boats don't run into each other. 

[gman]

20 minutes ago, Fred said:

Jackson is out of options, therefore, unless they're willing to take a chance on losing him when they DFA him, they need to keep him on the active roster. If they claim a rule 5 guy, they are obligated to carry him on the active roster if they want to keep him. Maybe one of the three can play an adequate 1st base. That's the only way I can see to carry Jeffers, Jackson, and Susac, otherwise you have 2 catchers on your 4 man bench.

I could see Jeffer's playing first base 70-80 games, along with about 50 games at catcher. Keep Jackson and Susac sharing catching duties and Jeffer's to play about a third of the schedule. That 1/3 for Jeffer's may trickle down towards the end of next year. 

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, Fred said:

Jackson is out of options, therefore, unless they're willing to take a chance on losing him when they DFA him, they need to keep him on the active roster. If they claim a rule 5 guy, they are obligated to carry him on the active roster if they want to keep him. Maybe one of the three can play an adequate 1st base. That's the only way I can see to carry Jeffers, Jackson, and Susac, otherwise you have 2 catchers on your 4 man bench.

I could see an open competition and use spring training to pick one to carry all season. Worst case is they don't have one in the organization going forward, but that's the case even if they don't have a competition.

I think I'd rather take a chance on one of the Yankees arms in the bullpen than auditioning Susac.