If the Twins Won’t Spend, They Need to Trade Ryan Jeffers Now

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Jeffers isn't Raleigh, but he isn't Vazquez either. 

No, he's more like past his prime Salvador Perez, who just signed for 2 years $25M with $9.5M of that deferred past his retirement.

[mnfireman]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

That average seriously misrepresents free-agency value.  Every long-term contract is different, but the one Seattle signed Raleigh to blends his arbitration years with some free agency.  B-r.com shows it as:

$2.67M, 12.67, 13.67, 24.67, 24.67, 24.67

It's pretty clear what both sides of the bargaining table thought was a fair value for his free-agency years, modulo it being guaranteed to him several years in advance.  The Mariners may feel they've locked in someone they'd have to pay even more to, when the time came.

And free-agency is exactly what the Twins and Jeffers would be bargaining over.  Jeffers isn't Raleigh, but he isn't Vazquez either.

Spin it any way you want, Jeffers is not even close to being worth $16-$17 MM/year.

He isn't Smith, Murphy or Kirk either, and he'd be getting paid more than their FA years. His 2023 season set his first time Arb number high, and the ensuing years generally follow suit.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, gman said:

I am on the "we'll know more after the owners meeting" boat. But then again I'm also on the "they'll go ahead and blow everything up boat". I just hope my two boats don't run into each other. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I should have waited to give you time to respond, I see now.  However, if you are interested in slimming down those fingers, I asked ChatGPT and it gave me these helpful tips:

Finger Fitness Program (results not guaranteed)

• Repetitive Strength Training:
  Type the word “antidisestablishmentarianism” five times without looking. Builds precision.

• Fine-Motor Pilates:
  Practice hitting the Backspace key with elegance and control.

• Grip Conditioning:
  Squeeze a stress ball while muttering, “I meant to type that.”

 

(I replied: "don't quit your day job, R2D2.")

This is 100% what I needed. Thank you!

I did tell my kids a joke the other day about the priest, the pastor and the rabbit that had walked into the bar. The rabbit said immediately that they were probably a fat fingered autocorrect :)

[GNess]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

I don't believe anything Falvey says about anything.  I also understand he can't come out and say TC will not be competitive and the big contracts will be dealt cause it's a total teardown rebuild.  Honesty like that would be bad for tik sales and trade negotiations.

I agree that signaling your intent to rebuild in advance is a poor negotiating tactic generally as well as bad PR. However, haven't the Twins basically already done so by trading off 40%+ of the MLB roster at the deadline? It seems that other GM's will have that info when and if Falvey approaches them with Lopez, Ryan, Buxton or Jeffers trade proposals. 

Basically, MLB trading transactions are more a product of perceived value to both parties in the exchange of assets. (At least that's how it appears to me from a distance.)

[old nurse]

52 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Always strive to be just below median.

 

 

Always take things in the worse way possible. Ignore the complexity of actually finding above average. Typical. How about worrying about the other positions that are farther below median first. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Ryan Jeffers is not above average. He's below average, technically.

fWAR
2025 = Rank of 26 catchers with 350+ PA (15 of 26) 42%
2024 = Rank of 32 catchers with 300+ PA (22 of 32) 31%
2023 = Rank of 31 catchers with 300+ PA (14 of 31) 55%

Below the median, technically. 🤣

I'm curious about your choosing different plate appearance minimums  

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

How does a team add to a full roster without cutting?

I think "cutting" from the roster is a relative term when McCusker, Kreidler, etc., are on it. 

[tony&rodney]

32 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I think "cutting" from the roster is a relative term when McCusker, Kreidler, etc., are on it. 

I'm not going to disparage any of those players. You do realize they would be on 40 not 26 roster?

I'm not opposed to a ton of adding and cutting. The comment from peerless one was we want to add not cut. When they added Alex Jackson, it pushed Pereda off of competing for a 26 slot. Adding Eric Orze just filled an open rp slot. Any player added that does not have options goes to the 26 roster. Who is being added that goes on the 26 and who gets cut. Or are the Twins just adding minor league invite players that do not need a roster spot at all? Can't add to the 26 without cutting. I just am curious. I can agree that half the 40 could be moved if the Twins wanted to get wild and crazy. Will they?

[jorgenswest]

Is fWAR a good tool to measure value at catcher? If that catcher is also playing DH there will be a significant negative hit to his positional value and ultimately his fWAR. If it is possible to parse out fWAR while playing catcher then playing time will be a factor if a team chooses to rotate catchers.

I do know that over the last three years Jeffers has a wRC+ of 117. That would be 5th among qualified catchers over that time but that doesn’t take into account some catchers with very good bats have joined the league in the last two years. Last year his wRC+ of 113 ranked 11th among players where catcher is their primary position.

His defense is below average but I really don’t think he is a below the median catcher. I will concede the point to avoid arguing whether he might be just above or just below. I do believe he is vastly better than the catchers that the Twins would be able to acquire to replace him given the resources they are willing to spend. That pool of catchers may be outside the top 50.

[IndianaTwin]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm not going to disparage any of those players. You do realize they would be on 40 not 26 roster?

I'm not opposed to a ton of adding and cutting. The comment from peerless one was we want to add not cut. When they added Alex Jackson, it pushed Pereda off of competing for a 26 slot. Adding Eric Orze just filled an open rp slot. Any player added that does not have options goes to the 26 roster. Who is being added that goes on the 26 and who gets cut. Or are the Twins just adding minor league invite players that do not need a roster spot at all? Can't add to the 26 without cutting. I just am curious. I can agree that half the 40 could be moved if the Twins wanted to get wild and crazy. Will they?

Right -- but they don't have to make 26-man decisions at this point. So I'd gladly add a Coulombe to the 40-man at the cost of using an option to send Kreidler or McCusker back to St. Paul now.

And if they magically make it through spring training without injuries and have to make a 26-man decision then, optioning Ohl isn't an issue.

You're right on Jackson likely cutting Pereda from consideration for the Opening Day mix, but I have to assume they see enough in Jackson to view him as a step up from Pereda if both are healthy. And if one (or Jeffers) is hurt, the IL resolves the question. 

 

 

[ryan189]

 need to pick up susac in rule 5 let him back up Jeffers all year

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Right -- but they don't have to make 26-man decisions at this point. So I'd gladly add a Coulombe to the 40-man at the cost of using an option to send Kreidler or McCusker back to St. Paul now.

And if they magically make it through spring training without injuries and have to make a 26-man decision then, optioning Ohl isn't an issue.

You're right on Jackson likely cutting Pereda from consideration for the Opening Day mix, but I have to assume they see enough in Jackson to view him as a step up from Pereda if both are healthy. And if one (or Jeffers) is hurt, the IL resolves the question. 

 

 

I want to have the confidence that you do in the Twins front office, I really do, but I watched them the last nine years.

[TopGunn#22]

Jeffers is not going to be a member of any future twins team after the 2026 season.  I just don't see the current ownership and FO signing him to a 3-year contract extension prior to opening day, 2026.  And certainly, his agent (Scott Boras) wants to see Jeffers hit FA.

I could see selecting Susac in the Rule 5 draft and having Susac and Jackson as the catching tandem with Pereda and Cardenas providing minor league depth.  If the Twins want to realize any benefit with Jeffers, they need to trade him during the Winter Meetings or shortly after.

Odds are overwhelmingly stacked AGAINST the Twins contending in 2026.  Jeffers is a luxury that the Twins, under the current leadership cannot afford. 

[RpR]

The catching duo next year: Gasper and Pereda

[sweetmusicviola16]

The Nats acquire Harry Ford for a LHRP.  Falvey couldn't pull this off. But he thinks he can compete. He's failed over and over again. He's over his head. Destroyed the team in July and received back redundant pieces. This team isn't close to competing.

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The Nats acquire Harry Ford for a LHRP.  Falvey couldn't pull this off. But he thinks he can compete. He's failed over and over again. He's over his head. Destroyed the team in July and received back redundant pieces. This team isn't close to competing.

Way over

[sweetmusicviola16]

52 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Jeffers is not going to be a member of any future twins team after the 2026 season.  I just don't see the current ownership and FO signing him to a 3-year contract extension prior to opening day, 2026.  And certainly, his agent (Scott Boras) wants to see Jeffers hit FA.

I could see selecting Susac in the Rule 5 draft and having Susac and Jackson as the catching tandem with Pereda and Cardenas providing minor league depth.  If the Twins want to realize any benefit with Jeffers, they need to trade him during the Winter Meetings or shortly after.

Odds are overwhelmingly stacked AGAINST the Twins contending in 2026.  Jeffers is a luxury that the Twins, under the current leadership cannot afford. 

Jeffers will walk after 2026. Ryan and Lopez will walk after 2027. We will get absolutely nothing in return. This so we can finish in 5th place but get 5 -10 more wins in those last place seasons. Falvey is a disaster that we can no longer afford to keep.

[tony&rodney]

56 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Jeffers is not going to be a member of any future twins team after the 2026 season.  I just don't see the current ownership and FO signing him to a 3-year contract extension prior to opening day, 2026.  And certainly, his agent (Scott Boras) wants to see Jeffers hit FA.

I could see selecting Susac in the Rule 5 draft and having Susac and Jackson as the catching tandem with Pereda and Cardenas providing minor league depth.  If the Twins want to realize any benefit with Jeffers, they need to trade him during the Winter Meetings or shortly after.

Odds are overwhelmingly stacked AGAINST the Twins contending in 2026.  Jeffers is a luxury that the Twins, under the current leadership cannot afford. 

Boras would gladly have Jeffers sign a market level extension right now. Ryan Jeffers is in complete control of Boras concerning his own future. I can see Jeffers being very excited to be the primary catcher next season because he will have a chance to greatly enhance his value going into free agency. Thus Jeffers will want to wait far more than Boras.

I do not have a good handle on what team or worth Jeffers has for any team. My guess is Jeffers is with the Twins in 2026. Nothing would surprise me though with this front office. 

I agree the odds are stacked against the Twins.

[mnfireman]

21 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The Nats acquire Harry Ford for a LHRP.  Falvey couldn't pull this off. But he thinks he can compete. He's failed over and over again. He's over his head. Destroyed the team in July and received back redundant pieces. This team isn't close to competing.

We do not know if the Twins even inquired about Ford, and if they did, we don't know what Seattle wanted in return. It has been reported in the past that teams have settled for far less than what they asked for from the Twins.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not sure that letting Jeffers walk and getting nothing in return is a good idea. 

I'm not sure you send a QO his way. 

 

[Brandon]

6 hours ago, mnfireman said:

$16-$17 MM per year is Cal Raleigh money, way too much of an overpay...

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/_/position/c

Jeffers agent is Scott Boras.  I thought 14-15 million per season was adequate so I added a little.  Raleigh is worth more say 25 million per season or so.  Schwarber is bat only and likely to make 27 million with a similar profile to Raleigh though Raleigh is entering his prime and Schwarber is on the downside.  Stats can always be used to justify your argument. 

[SteveLV]

My goodness:  Raleigh in the free market would get WAY more than $25M per season. WAY more.

He mashed from the C position.  That is beyond rare. And he is young and might get even better!

The Yankees and the Dodgers would fall over themselves to get the chance to sign him.

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

Jeffers agent is Scott Boras.  I thought 14-15 million per season was adequate so I added a little.  Raleigh is worth more say 25 million per season or so.  Schwarber is bat only and likely to make 27 million with a similar profile to Raleigh though Raleigh is entering his prime and Schwarber is on the downside.  Stats can always be used to justify your argument. 

Good thing you are not the GM of an MLB team...

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, SteveLV said:

My goodness:  Raleigh in the free market would get WAY more than $25M per season. WAY more.

He mashed from the C position.  That is beyond rare. And he is young and might get even better!

The Yankees and the Dodgers would fall over themselves to get the chance to sign him.

Raleigh is 29, not that young by MLB standards, especially as a C,...it's a great contract for him

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Good thing you are not the GM of an MLB team...

Challenge Accepted!  I would love the opportunity to prove you wrong.

[Otaknam]

22 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

I’d like them to keep Jeffers and also use a rule 5 pick on Daniel Susac. Catching is still a position with little to no depth for the Twins. 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=susac-000dan&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=diamondcentric.net&utm_campaign=2025-11-25_br

An interesting idea. I didn’t know anything about Susac, but his AAA offensive stats are very good, albeit playing in Las Vegas where the ball flies. His offensive upside is clearly better than current backup Jackson. It does make sense, though taking a Rule 5 pitcher is much more likely.

[Otaknam]

Right now there is no adequate replacement for Jeffers, so it makes no sense to trade him in the offseason. 

[Otaknam]

15 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Jeffers will walk after 2026. Ryan and Lopez will walk after 2027. We will get absolutely nothing in return. This so we can finish in 5th place but get 5 -10 more wins in those last place seasons. Falvey is a disaster that we can no longer afford to keep.

That’s a very negative view. Not even Falvey is so incompetent that he will just let his best players play out their contracts and become free agents with no return.

 

15 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Jeffers will walk after 2026. Ryan and Lopez will walk after 2027. We will get absolutely nothing in return. This so we can finish in 5th place but get 5 -10 more wins in those last place seasons. Falvey is a disaster that we can no longer afford to keep.

That’s a very negative take. Not even Falvey is so incompetent that he will let his most valuable assets walk for nothing after playing out their contracts. They might stand pat with the current roster into the season, with only minor additions like the Rule 5 draft, until the trade deadline to make a move. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Buxton is traded in the offseason if someone makes a great offer. I think they will keep Lopez and Ryan into the 2026 season, and then try to maximize a trade at the deadline for one or both, signifying a total rebuild. That might be the best move going forward.

[USAFChief]

16 hours ago, mnfireman said:

We do not know if the Twins even inquired about Ford, and if they did, we don't know what Seattle wanted in return. It has been reported in the past that teams have settled for far less than what they asked for from the Twins.

Reported by who?