Has Walker Jenkins Done Enough to Prove His Doubters Wrong in 2025?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Walker Jenkins)

This past winter, a few national prospect outlets cast some doubt on Walker Jenkins. His hit tool was still praised, but questions about his power production and durability began to emerge. FanGraphs, led by prospect writer Eric Longenhagen, went further than most, ranking Jenkins as the 17th-best prospect in baseball, a notably lower ranking than other outlets. For some perspective, the three other major outlets (Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus) had him ranked in the top five.

Obviously, the difference between those rankings tiers is relatively small. It's not as though anyone took him out of their top-100 list. Still, his lower ranking by some outlets raised important questions: were they seeing something others weren’t, or was this simply a statistical outlier? And more importantly, could Jenkins prove them wrong in 2025?

Early Questions, Familiar Concerns
Jenkins’s drop was tied to two main issues. First, his power hadn’t fully translated to game action in his early professional career. Scouts had always projected above-average or plus raw power, but the results hadn’t matched the lofty expectations. Second, injuries had already become a recurring theme. An ankle injury delayed his 2025 debut, only adding more fuel to the narrative.

For a player so young, it’s easy to see why evaluators might hedge their bets. FanGraphs wasn’t necessarily saying Jenkins wouldn’t be a star. They were saying the margin for error might be thinner than his hype suggested.

Responding Between the Lines
Once healthy, Jenkins quickly showed why the Twins have been so aggressive with his development. After shaking off some early rust in Double-A Wichita, he hit his way out of the Texas League, slashing .309/.426/.487 with a mature approach (14.6 BB%) and growing power. He was also the third-youngest player in the Texas League. 

Triple-A St. Paul presented another challenge, but the adjustment period was short-lived. Jenkins went 1-for-20 to start his Saints career, but now he finds himself riding a hitting streak, collecting four straight multi-hit games and belting his first Triple-A home run. His season line, after all that—.305/.427/.477, with nine home runs and 14 steals in 73 games—is exactly what the Twins hoped to see. It’s also why the team hasn’t been afraid to promote him up the organizational ladder aggressively. 

Putting His Path in Perspective
MLB teams rarely push 20-year-old hitters to Triple-A. When they do, it’s typically because the organization believes they’re grooming a franchise cornerstone. Jenkins has batted .290 or higher with an OPS above .860 at every stop of the minors before reaching St. Paul.

How rare is this path? He’s the first Twins hitting prospect to play a Triple-A game in his age-20 season in the last 25 years. Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer, two of the most hyped prospects in club history, spent their age-20 campaigns finishing at Double-A. Some players his age are still completing their college careers. Jenkins, meanwhile, is knocking on the door of Target Field.

Did He Prove the Doubters Wrong?
The truth is complicated. FanGraphs’s ranking wasn’t made in bad faith. It was an acknowledgment of risk factors that still exist. Jenkins has dealt with multiple injuries already, and while his power is starting to show, he hasn’t yet proven it against MLB-caliber arms.

But if the question is whether he’s lived up to the challenge in 2025, the answer is an emphatic YES. The Twins continue to test him, and he continues to respond. The combination of elite on-base skills, gap power that’s beginning to evolve into more home runs, and the maturity of his approach at the plate suggests that he’s firmly tracking toward the star status many predicted on draft day. We have some hard data now, and his 90th-percentile exit velocity of 104.9 miles per hour in a small Triple-A sample is well clear of average for the level. He pulls the ball in the air at an average rate. The fundamentals of power are there.

Prospect rankings are educated guesses, and Jenkins’s story is a reminder of both their value and their limitations. Outlier opinions, like FanGraphs’s, are useful because they force us to consider downside scenarios. But sometimes, the consensus is right, and a player really is as good as advertised.

For now, Jenkins hasn’t just held his own in 2025. He’s excelled with every obstacle put in his way. And if his rapid rise continues, the Twins may not have to wait long to see if their prized outfielder can do the same in Minneapolis.

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Has Jenkins proven his doubters wrong this season? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[In My La Z boy]

Sounding more and more like they are penciling him in for LF next spring. Please let this be the off season where we DON'T sign cheap veteran filler guys. If we're going to suck, let's do it with our prospects and at least learn something. 

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Sounding more and more like they are penciling him in for LF next spring. Please let this be the off season where we DON'T sign cheap veteran filler guys. If we're going to suck, let's do it with our prospects and at least learn something. 

We have been sucking with rookies for a long time already.

[In My La Z boy]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

We have been sucking with rookies for a long time already.

I assume sucking is a given, therefore let's suck with our kids rather than a bunch of Ty Frances. Stick with one of these kids and maybe you'll get a Rooker - or a Helman, who hit a grand slam for the Rangers last night.

[1985Fan]

First off, who cares what his ranking is! His prospect status means nothing when (apparently not if) he reaches MLB. All that matters is his skill development. I’m not as much doubtful of Jenkins as I am of the Twins player development process. Based on players that have come through the system the last few years, I’d say they’re doing Jenkins more harm than good. 
So far, watching Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda, gives me zero confidence Jenkins will be ready to play when he’s promoted. Im hopeful Jenkins has enough talent and baseball instincts to overcome the lack of fundamentals from the Twins system. 

[terrydactyls]

HE DOESN'T HIT HOMERUNS!!!  HE DOESN'T HIT HOMERUNS!!!

Sounds like Chicken Little to me.  He's only 20 and closing in on the MLB.  Give it time.

[In My La Z boy]

22 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

First off, who cares what his ranking is! His prospect status means nothing when (apparently not if) he reaches MLB. All that matters is his skill development. I’m not as much doubtful of Jenkins as I am of the Twins player development process. Based on players that have come through the system the last few years, I’d say they’re doing Jenkins more harm than good. 
So far, watching Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda, gives me zero confidence Jenkins will be ready to play when he’s promoted. Im hopeful Jenkins has enough talent and baseball instincts to overcome the lack of fundamentals from the Twins system. 

Exactly! Hurry up and promote him before they wreck him 👍

[Doctor Gast]

I don't care if Jenkins will be the Twins' next Sano. I hope he's not. I'm more concerned with his development in hitting, baserunning & defense 1st.

[RpR]

34 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

I assume sucking is a given, therefore let's suck with our kids rather than a bunch of Ty Frances. Stick with one of these kids and maybe you'll get a Rooker - or a Helman, who hit a grand slam for the Rangers last night.

Taylor did not suck, Santana did not suck, Solano did not suck, Urshela did not suck,  so sucking is only a given among the kids. 

[Fatbat]

Some critics probably will never get on the Jenkins train. It would be great to see Jenkins at Target field along with Erod and Gabby. Wallner and Buck can mentor them 3 and have Rosario in St.Paul if anything goes sideways.  Any why isn’t Rosario learning 1B? If the org is going to punt on raising payroll, play ALL the potential stars of tomorrow!!

[In My La Z boy]

49 minutes ago, RpR said:

Taylor did not suck, Santana did not suck, Solano did not suck, Urshela did not suck,  so sucking is only a given among the kids. 

I do wish I could brighten your day RpR as you've brightened mine 👍 I do love an old crotchety Twins fan! 
I enjoy the game, and I enjoy watching the young kids get their chance. I especially love it when the parents are in the stands and they do something great! It saddens me we suck, and it saddens me i don't like our front office and manager, but we carry on rooting for our beloved Twins! Have a great day if possible!

[jkcarew]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Taylor did not suck, Santana did not suck, Solano did not suck, Urshela did not suck,  so sucking is only a given among the kids. 

You’re defending your argument with Santana, Taylor, Solano, and Urshela.

Guys that are not good enough to start regularly for any team.  ANY team. Guys that any franchise would be happy to play a promising rookie in front of. ANY franchise. Every franchise. But yeah, let’s go with those kind of guys.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Sounding more and more like they are penciling him in for LF next spring. Please let this be the off season where we DON'T sign cheap veteran filler guys. If we're going to suck, let's do it with our prospects and at least learn something. 

I kind of see him more in right field to be quite honest. I know we have Wallner, but his range/defense this year has left a LOT to be desired.

Maybe Wallner will be more full time DH?

[RpR]

21 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

You’re defending your argument with Santana, Taylor, Solano, and Urshela.

Guys that are not good enough to start regularly for any team.  ANY team. Guys that any franchise would be happy to play a promising rookie in front of. ANY franchise. Every franchise. But yeah, let’s go with those kind of guys.

Guys that did very well for out team, the only team that matters, but then we have Julien , Larnach and Wallner starting for the Twins, yeah, lets go with these kind of guys.🥸

[weitz41]

I'd like to see more power but at 20 in AAA, he's in that upper echelon of prospects that look like no doubters for at least all-star by age 23-24. The power will show up in the next year or two. So, I'd say yeah, he's done enough.

[DJL44]

I have Jenkins above Roden and Martin on my depth chart. I think he's already likely as good as Bader. I assume Larnach will be traded and Jenkins will be in the outfield on opening day.

[Badgolfer34]

I would just like someone who can hit the darn ball consistently, power will come as he gets older. Twins need people with speed , who can put the ball in play.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

Guys that are not good enough to start regularly for any team.

So Taylor and Solano, who started regularly for the Twins, weren't good enough to start regularly for any team, despite the team that they started regularly for going to the playoffs quite comfortably...

Huh? 

This thinking is the same stupidity that had people upset about the Bader signing. 

No one is saying the Twins should hire all vets to fill out their roster and block their young players, but the Twins don't actually have a history of doing that, despite what the uninformed rubes here often cry about.

I literally can't think of a single young player that wasn't given a proper chance to play on the Minnesota Twins this decade thanks to a veteran being signed. Manuel Margot is the closest example and the player he was "blocking" was DaShawn Keirsey, so, yeah. 

 

[jmlease1]

 

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

So far, watching Lewis, Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda, gives me zero confidence Jenkins will be ready to play when he’s promoted. Im hopeful Jenkins has enough talent and baseball instincts to overcome the lack of fundamentals from the Twins system. 

I like the revisionist history on prospects that looked great immediately and then fell apart (or weren't all immediate and consistent all-stars) that the Twins somehow "ruined" them...and that most of these guys were ever considered in Jenkins class.

Royce Lewis looked great from the jump...and then suffered another major injury. He's been littered with them, and it unquestionably relates to his struggles to be a consistent player. But he's developing nicely at 3B defensively (above average with the potential to be a plus defender). He's the last prospect we've had that is on the same class of prospect as Walker Jenkins.

Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda were never so highly regarded. (Martin made some top 20 prospect lists early on; Wallner & Julien weren't even considered top 100 guys, and Miranda barely cracked into that when he had a late bust-out season)

In past 20+ years the only prospects we've had that were truly in this class have been Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis...and now Walker Jenkins. Even Brooks Lee, who was well-regarded is much more like Martin. Even Keaschall, who is doing great, never ranked so high. (Sano eventually rose to these kinds of rankings, but it took time.) It still guarantees nothing, but to be in the Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis cadre is pretty awesome.

Jenkins has answered every question so far, except whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season. Which, considering what has happened to so many quality Twins prospects, including their absolute top-tier guys scares me...but none of the injuries he's had have been serious or the type to have long-term effects. (It's not like he blew out a knee or has a disc problem in his back)

I just hope they do a long-term deal with him (7 seasons sounds fine) and he's starting from Day 1 in RF or LF and gunning for RoY.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Taylor did not suck, Santana did not suck, Solano did not suck, Urshela did not suck,  so sucking is only a given among the kids. 

LK has not sucked. Polanco did not suck. 

[LambchoP]

A 2026 OF of Buxton, Jenkins, E-Rod and Gonzalez or Martin could be fun to watch. Larnach is probably gone and Wallner is a DH. Roden and Outman are not major league players. Why is Outman even in MLB over someone like Fedko? A 40-50 percent K rate is just embarrassing.....

[jmlease1]

2 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

A 2026 OF of Buxton, Jenkins, E-Rod and Gonzalez or Martin could be fun to watch. Larnach is probably gone and Wallner is a DH. Roden and Outman are not major league players. Why is Outman even in MLB over someone like Fedko? A 40-50 percent K rate is just embarrassing.....

Because Fedko really shouldn't be playing CF and the book on Outman was that he could. Plus, Fedko hasn't been added to the 40-man yet.

I don't think Outman should be on the Twins in 2026, but I'm ok with settling the issue once and for all now...and I'd kind of prefer that Fedko not get any of the stink of this season on him and have the (rightfully) bitter and angry fans turn on him if he doesn't immediately Keaschall it.

I'd like the OF to be Buxton, Jenkins, and either GG or E-Rod in some orientation, and I'd be fine with 2 of Larnach, Fedko, and Martin on the bench for the OF (with Wallner at DH and capable of stepping into RF as needed). That's an OF for now and the future.

I suspect we'll get stuck with Roden and a minimum salary scrap-heap veteran, though.

[In My La Z boy]

21 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

 

I like the revisionist history on prospects that looked great immediately and then fell apart (or weren't all immediate and consistent all-stars) that the Twins somehow "ruined" them...and that most of these guys were ever considered in Jenkins class.

Royce Lewis looked great from the jump...and then suffered another major injury. He's been littered with them, and it unquestionably relates to his struggles to be a consistent player. But he's developing nicely at 3B defensively (above average with the potential to be a plus defender). He's the last prospect we've had that is on the same class of prospect as Walker Jenkins.

Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda were never so highly regarded. (Martin made some top 20 prospect lists early on; Wallner & Julien weren't even considered top 100 guys, and Miranda barely cracked into that when he had a late bust-out season)

In past 20+ years the only prospects we've had that were truly in this class have been Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis...and now Walker Jenkins. Even Brooks Lee, who was well-regarded is much more like Martin. Even Keaschall, who is doing great, never ranked so high. (Sano eventually rose to these kinds of rankings, but it took time.) It still guarantees nothing, but to be in the Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis cadre is pretty awesome.

Jenkins has answered every question so far, except whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season. Which, considering what has happened to so many quality Twins prospects, including their absolute top-tier guys scares me...but none of the injuries he's had have been serious or the type to have long-term effects. (It's not like he blew out a knee or has a disc problem in his back)

I just hope they do a long-term deal with him (7 seasons sounds fine) and he's starting from Day 1 in RF or LF and gunning for RoY.

Not sure why this comment was attributed to me. 1985Fan made the statement that you commented on. 
I think the Twins are culpable for misreading their talent (as we did) and not trading them at their peak. Miranda sure had a peak, so did Julien, and both 2nd rounders. Wallner was also highly coveted last winter, if he's a bust they blew that chance as well. Martin is a former top 10 pick and I like him and I think he'll keep improving w/play. Lee also a top 10 pick. We've got to do better.

[NYCTK]

23 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'd like the OF to be Buxton, Jenkins, and either GG or E-Rod in some orientation, and I'd be fine with 2 of Larnach, Fedko, and Martin on the bench for the OF (with Wallner at DH and capable of stepping into RF as needed). That's an OF for now and the future.

I suspect we'll get stuck with Roden and a minimum salary scrap-heap veteran, though.

The hatred of Roden on this website is really quite sad. It's completely irrational and driven by hatred of the trade that brought him here way more than him as a player. 

No denying he really, REALLY struggled in his 150 major league PAs, 40 with the Twins. But anyone that would choose Fedko or Martin over Roden is just being ridiculous. Odds are all 3 suck next year, but Roden is easily the best bet of the three. UNLESS you think Martin has truly turned a corner and is now a reliable OF. I don't buy that at all, so the choice is clear to me. 

[1985Fan]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

 

I like the revisionist history on prospects that looked great immediately and then fell apart (or weren't all immediate and consistent all-stars) that the Twins somehow "ruined" them...and that most of these guys were ever considered in Jenkins class.

Royce Lewis looked great from the jump...and then suffered another major injury. He's been littered with them, and it unquestionably relates to his struggles to be a consistent player. But he's developing nicely at 3B defensively (above average with the potential to be a plus defender). He's the last prospect we've had that is on the same class of prospect as Walker Jenkins.

Martin, Wallner, Julien, and Miranda were never so highly regarded. (Martin made some top 20 prospect lists early on; Wallner & Julien weren't even considered top 100 guys, and Miranda barely cracked into that when he had a late bust-out season)

In past 20+ years the only prospects we've had that were truly in this class have been Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis...and now Walker Jenkins. Even Brooks Lee, who was well-regarded is much more like Martin. Even Keaschall, who is doing great, never ranked so high. (Sano eventually rose to these kinds of rankings, but it took time.) It still guarantees nothing, but to be in the Mauer, Buxton, and Lewis cadre is pretty awesome.

Jenkins has answered every question so far, except whether or not he can stay healthy for a full season. Which, considering what has happened to so many quality Twins prospects, including their absolute top-tier guys scares me...but none of the injuries he's had have been serious or the type to have long-term effects. (It's not like he blew out a knee or has a disc problem in his back)

I just hope they do a long-term deal with him (7 seasons sounds fine) and he's starting from Day 1 in RF or LF and gunning for RoY.

My comment was that the Twins player development system is broken. Having watched several of the last players called up display lack of fundamentals and baseball sense, I stand by my comment. Based on past prospect performances, Jenkins won’t be ready when he’s called up because the Twins system doesn’t prepare their players to succeed. Hope he is great from the jump in spite of the system.  

[jmlease1]

34 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The hatred of Roden on this website is really quite sad. It's completely irrational and driven by hatred of the trade that brought him here way more than him as a player. 

No denying he really, REALLY struggled in his 150 major league PAs, 40 with the Twins. But anyone that would choose Fedko or Martin over Roden is just being ridiculous. Odds are all 3 suck next year, but Roden is easily the best bet of the three. UNLESS you think Martin has truly turned a corner and is now a reliable OF. I don't buy that at all, so the choice is clear to me. 

You're stretching it a lot to say that Roden is "easily" the best bet of the three between Fedko, Martin, and Roden. He might be a better bet than Fedko; probably a better defender at this point, but we really can't say as a hitter until Fedko gets a look. But Martin has shown substantial improvement at the plate this season and has actually done something in MLB to earn a job. 

It's fair that people including me are probably too down on Roden because of the trade that brought him here, but what has Roden really done to get enthusiastic about? He's hit well in less than a season's worth of ABs in AAA and totally flopped in his first taste of MLB. Martin wasn't great in his first taste of MLB at age 25 either, but he was better than Roden. Roden didn't even look particularly good in the OF.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

LK has not sucked. Polanco did not suck. 

Polanco sucked tremendously at SS, .959 fielding percentage. 

LOL,  Keaschall just got here, but he looks good so far.

Polanco is no longer with the Twins.

[Obsvr]

#FreeWalkerJenkins

[Seth Stohs]

Are there actually doubters??

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

Are there actually doubters??

See, that's the heart of what was bothering me about the article.  It didn't define its terms and left the discussion fuzzy.  It didn't quite come out and say what anyone was doubting.  "We doubt he's in the top 5" -- FangRaphs - that's about the closest to a specific thing that the player could try to "prove" is wrong.  Jenkins's season is good but I really doubt that a writer is now muttering, "guess I was wrong, he's #5 now."  Missing in action during most of April and all of May can't have shut anyone up about the durability concerns.