Minnesota Twins' Recent Trade Deadline History: Buy Low, Sell High, Hope You're Right

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

When the MLB trade deadline rolls around each season, front offices around baseball are tasked with making high-stakes decisions in real time. Whether pushing chips in or recouping future value, the best organizations know when to capitalize on a player’s rising stock or spot overlooked talent in another system.

In recent years, the Minnesota Twins have done both. They sold high on one prospect whose value was peaking in 2022. A year earlier, they pulled off a shrewd acquisition by targeting a pitcher undervalued by his own organization. These two moves showcase how the Twins have blended scouting insight, data evaluation, and industry perception to shape their roster.

Selling High: Steer’s Breakout Opens Trade Window
At the 2022 deadline, the Twins were in buy mode. They needed starting pitching, and they needed it fast. But to get value, they had to give it up, and Spencer Steer was one of the hottest names in the organization.

Steer had taken a massive step forward that summer. After making adjustments at the plate, he began to show more power and versatility in the infield, rising quickly through the system. Internally, the Twins liked him a lot. But externally, teams were even more intrigued. Former Twins GM Thad Levine recently discussed the deal on Gleeman and The Geek, noting that while Minnesota believed in Steer’s future, the broader baseball industry was even more bullish on him.

The Twins ultimately packaged Steer with Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar to acquire Tyler Mahle from the Reds. At the time, it appeared to be a fair deal. Minnesota was addressing an urgent need in the rotation, and Mahle had been a dependable mid-rotation starter in Cincinnati.

But Mahle would throw fewer than 45 innings for the Twins before elbow issues led to Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Steer has shown brief flashes, but failed to become a reliable everyday contributor for Cincinnati with a 94 OPS+ over the last two seasons. The Twins didn’t necessarily mis-evaluate Steer; they just chose to sell high when his value peaked.

That’s part of the deadline game: maximizing return on a player who might not fit your immediate plan, even if it means taking on risk in the process.

Buying Low: Joe Ryan’s Value Hidden in Plain Sight
Just a year earlier, the Twins were on the other side of the equation. Sitting outside the playoff picture in 2021, Minnesota dealt veteran slugger Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays. In return, they landed a pitcher who wasn’t a top-100 prospect but had the attention of a critical voice in their front office.

That pitcher was Joe Ryan.

While many across the league viewed Ryan as a limited-upside arm (with a deceptive fastball but little else), Twins Vice President Josh Kalk a pitching guru saw something more. Kalk had worked in the Rays organization before joining Minnesota, and he believed Ryan’s fastball traits, including its unique carry and command, would translate to the major-league level. That internal conviction was a big reason the Twins targeted him.

The Rays, as savvy as they are, didn’t value Ryan as highly. In a rare twist, Minnesota may have out-Raysed the Rays. Since arriving in the organization, Ryan has quickly climbed the ladder, debuting late in 2021 and establishing himself as a mainstay in the Twins’ rotation. He’s still evolving as a pitcher, adding secondaries and refining sequencing. Still, his strike-throwing ability and mound presence have made him one of the better value acquisitions in recent Twins history.

It’s a textbook case of buying low. The Twins identified a player whose skill set and pitch characteristics aligned with their developmental strengths, and they pounced when the opportunity arose.

Deadline Lessons: Timing, Trust, and Targeting
In back-to-back deadlines, the Twins pulled off moves that showcased the delicate art of roster building. Selling high on Steer was a bet on immediate need, even if it came at the cost of long-term control. Buying low on Ryan was a projection-heavy play, driven by internal belief rather than external consensus.

Neither move came without risk. The Mahle trade didn’t work out for either side in hindsight. But Ryan’s emergence continues to provide value far beyond what many expected at the time of the Cruz deal.

As the 2025 trade deadline approaches, the Twins’ past deals remind us that success isn’t just about acquiring the biggest name. It’s about knowing when to strike, trusting internal evaluations, and understanding how others view the talent on your roster and theirs. The process of each deal was sound in its own way, but that doesn't mean either was certain to work out in any particular sense. It's important to understand local maxima and minima of player value, to time transactions well and make smart bets—but equally important to remember that those charted variations in evaluations and expectations can often be just plain wrong.

---

Can the Twins sell high on anyone in the organization in 2025? Leave a comment and start the speculation.

View full article

[Eris]

What about the Sam Dyson trade?

[Doctor Wu]

21 minutes ago, Eris said:

What about the Sam Dyson trade?

And about a dozen or more mis-fires in past decade or so. For every Twins "win" in these deadline trades, seems like we lose twice as much. 

[big dog]

23 minutes ago, Eris said:

What about the Sam Dyson trade?

Hmmm, I'll bite.

The Twins got Dyson. -0.3 WAR in 12 games,  he got injured and eventually suspended for domestic violence. 

They gave up:

Jaylin Davis. -0.7 WAR in 38 games for SF and BOS. Still bouncing around between AA and independent league teams at age 31.

Kai-Wei Teng.  -.0.3 WAR in 4 games for SF in 2024 (ERA of 9.82). Still a prospect, if you believe in 26-yr-old AAA relievers.

Perlander Berroa. The jewel of the group, 0.6 WAR in 19 games, mainly last year with the White Sox. Out this year and at least half of next year with elbow surgery, 25 yrs old, might have a chance.

 

Better example: the Twins bought low AND sold low when they traded Danny Walton to get Bobby Randall! Wait, that's not the point. Never mind.

[tony&rodney]

Hard to know if other teams view Twins players as having the skills necessary to help their roster. I would think that some of the players on expiring contracts are creating a little buzz. Castro, Bader, and Coulombe are all useful/solid players to add for teams looking to make noise in the playoffs. The question is return. 

There may be some minor league players within the Twins organization that are interesting to other teams. We don't know who may be available to trade though. On the MLB roster, only Ryan and Duran would be sell high players. It isn't clear what the Twins would demand in return. 

The comments all suggest that Joe Ryan is absolutely not to be traded. The Twins need a big bat. The Athletics desperately need pitching. What if they are open to a huge blockbuster? The Orioles are in the same position. Mostly, I don't see any realistic matches that include Joe Ryan. Conversations, impossible to imagine, that include names like Samuel Basallo or Nick Kurtz would get my attention though.

[DJL44]

The Twins aren’t selling prospects this deadline but there are some “sell high” options. Brock Stewart is a good example. They could get a very good prospect for an arm they picked up off the scrap heap. 

[nclahammer]

"The Mahle trade didn’t work out for either side in hindsight."  Really?  Spencer Steer had 43 homers and 178 RBI in his first two seasons with the Reds.  Toss in 71 doubles, 40 stolen bases and 148 runs scored and I would say Cincinnati made out like bandits in this trade with Minnesota and it's not even close.  Jeepers.

[mluebker]

In the larger context, it looks to me like most of the successful deals the Twins have struck are more luck than shrewdness. It’s great when they get lucky on a guy like Ryan, but Falvey (and Levine) never will be cited as savvy judges of potential trade targets or master roster builders. 

[Dman]

I am someone who does not do well with uncertainty.  I hate when the Twins are the ones giving up the established player like a Duran or Ryan for the hope that prospects will work out.  Teams fail with these types of trades all the time because that last big leap to the majors is a tough one and also injury can derail any kind of promise a prospect once had.

It's a tough part of the game to get right most of the time.  At any rate trading players on expiring contract should be a no brainer.  They aren't coming back so something is better than nothing..  

FWIW I still believe in the core of this team and with some help from the players almost ready to come up I think this team can be in a good spot next year.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

I’m generally in agreement that we shouldn’t be trading established players for prospects except that we should either re-sign the guys on expiring contracts that we want to keep or trade them. Castro and Bader both have real value, Coloumbe and Stewart have some. Those 4 are worth trading for prospects unless you’re gonna sign them now to bring them back next year. 

I’m very much against trading anybody with value and multiple years of control for prospects, including but not limited to Ryan, Jax, and Duran. I would keep them all myself, but if you’re going to trade one of them, you must get back a controllable MLB middle of the order bat. This team is not good this year, but they’re not so far off that they couldn’t be good next year. Not a time to blow things up by trading quality players unless you get real MLB quality back.

[Jeff K]

I do hope the Twins are sellers and able to get quality returns for their efforts.  For quite awhile, I've felt the team could make the playoffs but were not a contender to go deep (without luck).  Consequently, they should try to improve.  I believe the Twins biggest short term needs are at catcher and first base.  There are other needs as well, but these appear to be the most glaring.  I believe the Twins can attempt to solve first base (next year) by converting Royce Lewis or one of our corner outfielders who aren't exactly twinkle toes.  I am not suggesting who they get, but I would consider trading any of the following major leaguers.  Again, trading is dependent upon what they can get in return.

• Larnach or Wallner.
• Duran or Jax (needs to be a very solid return)
• Any of our free agents while hoping they can retain Bader.

This off season, the Twins need to take a harder look at the 40 man roster.  There are too many players on it that are not deserving.  Off the top of my head; Funderburk, Davis, Misiewicz, Tonkin, Camargo, Vazquez, Julien, Miranda and Keirsey are not going help the Twins to the promised land.  The bottom line, is the 40 man roster is weak.  The Twins appear to have players that can help at AA but could be a year away.  The next two weeks should be very interesting.

[Blyleven2011]

The front office just poached a trade with the dodgers  , Noah Davis  , what more do you want  ...

Seriously though , in their gut they must feel that the twins are going nowhere this season , if the front office is going to make trades , why wait , do it calmly now , why wait for the last minute ruckus , let's get this retooling going now and see what we have going forward and create some excitement for next year ...

If it's a deal worth making , then make the deal from our strength to strengthen our weaknesses  ...

It's a lost season  , wait till next year ....

[AKTwinsFan]

Only ones I'd sell are ones with expiring contracts (rentals). Losing Bader and Castro wouldn't work out well for MN if we plan on being a wild card race team. Columbe would be who id consider. Move Jax to starter next season to replace Paddack.

[AKTwinsFan]

We need to target a real top prospect or young catcher with some potential to replace Vasquez after this season. Idk how Gasper will do but we need a solid backup for Jeffers going forward.

[Trov]

4 hours ago, Eris said:

What about the Sam Dyson trade?

Yeah we really missed out on the guys we traded away, who was that again?  Oh that is right they have done nothing.  Just because a trade did not work out did not mean we made a bad trade, both teams ended up with crap in that trade.  Just as the writer pointed out the Mahle trade we did not get much of anything in return, but really did not lose much of anything either, other than maybe flipping them to a different team. 

[Trov]

I think this year the Twins could look to sell and buy for the future.  They should not make any "rental" trades in my opinion, but they can look to sell off MLB talent to bring in guys that are MLB ready or at that level with years of control.  They can use some of their system depth to shuffle guys around.  We again have a ton of in field depth, with Martin is doing well in AAA to put name back in could be a 2nd base guy or OF.  Keashall sure looks like a long time lock.  Lewis and Lee both still have potential.  Julien is getting his stroke back in AAA.  Then we have Culpepper knocking on the door.  We can look to pick and choose who to trade with plenty of depth left.  

OF also has guys knocking on the door with E-rod(if he can ever stay healthy), Jenkins, Gonzales are all guys that could push for time next year.  Wallner still around too. 

I could see if there are teams selling players with more than 1 year of control be willing to trade to Twins, and we could flip some of current MLB guys for more depth. 

[LambchoP]

I really think they need to get whatever value they can for our expiring contracts. Bader, Castro and Coloumbe should be able to net us some upper minors talent. Paddack and France could be packaged with some lower level guys to get something. We should only be "buying" if the player has at least another year of control. Someone like Diaz would be a great get. We need a first baseman, a catcher, and as always, pitching.

[AceBee]

May be an unpopular opinion, but I wouldn't mind twins trading Royce Lewis and sell high (if he maintains yesterday's 2HR game for another week or so). At this point, I would rather have a solid everyday player than tantalizing and flashy talent who for one reason or the other causes agony to the fans every time he is on the field. Albeit, I wouldn't be surprised him playing a solid 140-odd games in a full season for the the team we trade him to. 

[BrokenCompass]

"The Mahle trade didn't work out for either side in hindsight" - what? The Twins lost the Mahle trade.

While CES is having an injury plagued year, he's shown signs of brilliance and is still very much a part of the team's Big League plans. Meanwhile, Steer has become the Reds everyday 1B and is on pace for 20 HR and 80 RBI. 

Am I missing something here? Mahle was garbage as a Twin and I'd much rather have Spencer Steer at 1B than Ty France, and I bet most GMs would agree. 

[jkcarew]

You get real, and big value when you trade good players that are NOT on expiring contracts. That’s the way it works.

Yes, trade some expiring contracts…but, I’m always amazed at how unwilling we (fans) are to trade established guys no matter how stagnant…perpetually stagnant…the club is with the current ‘core’. Tweaking, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting to be good enough to win the AL Central, or a wild-card birth, has been the strategy forever. Where is the rationale for more of that??

At some point, you have to actually DO SOMETHING with meaningful upside and risk to actually compete for prizes that matter…even if it means you win 70 games for a year or two instead of 85 (in a division where 85 wins means you’re probably average, at best).

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The front office just poached a trade with the dodgers  , Noah Davis  , what more do you want  ...

Seriously though , in their gut they must feel that the twins are going nowhere this season , if the front office is going to make trades , why wait , do it calmly now , why wait for the last minute ruckus , let's get this retooling going now and see what we have going forward and create some excitement for next year ...

If it's a deal worth making , then make the deal from our strength to strengthen our weaknesses  ...

It's a lost season  , wait till next year ....

Because the market is not even fully formed.  There are still teams on the bubble and until that's decided there will be very few transactions.  

[Eris]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

Yeah we really missed out on the guys we traded away, who was that again?  Oh that is right they have done nothing.  Just because a trade did not work out did not mean we made a bad trade, both teams ended up with crap in that trade. 

There are multiple ways to evaluate a trade. One of the most important considerations in evaluating a trade is were the goals of a trade met. If goals of trade are not met, the trade is an “F”. Just because the goals for the other team were not met shouldn’t mean the FO gets a passing grade. When the Twins are in the middle of a pennant race and use resources to boost pitching and guys we traded for did not achieve that objective the trade is a failure. With this FO there are more examples of “F”s than “A”s. The list of deadline acquisitions the Twins made in recent years that did not achieve immediate goals accounts for many of the deadline trades that were made. Off the top of my head this includes Jorge Lopez, Tyler Mahle, and yes Sam Dyson. The Fulmer trade was a success. When the Twins were sellers the Ryan trade was a success. 

[P Meyer]

What becomes tough is the limitations payroll put on a franchise. You wouldn't generally trade Duran, Jax and Ryan if you knew you could financially keep them. The problem is the Twins almost certainly won't be able to keep these three so moving them while their value is at it's peak becomes the most prudent move. 

 

The Twins just need to keep churning their current young players and moving competition up through the minors until the cream of the crop makes itself clear. If Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Kaelen Culpepper, and Carlos Correa are all producing at the MLB level, that's a great and new problem to have. What is more likely is that you are just able to keep giving the guys on the roster chances, and then you will need to spend on the guys like Ty France and Kody Clemens less often. It's one reason I would use this offseason to get Royce reps at 1B. Seems like it might be easier on his body, and it looks like less people are close to fighting for that spot.

[P Meyer]

Basically, if you want to be able to pay to keep the Joe Ryan's, you can't be paying 7.5 mil for Chris Paddack, 10 mil for Christian Vasquez, 6.4 mil for Willi Castro, and 6.25 mil for Harrison Bader. Those are holes that you need to fill with your farm system. (and those higher dollar players HAVE to produce because your depth is limited).

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Because the market is not even fully formed.  There are still teams on the bubble and until that's decided there will be very few transactions.  

I agree not all teams know what there going to do , still positioning themselves to determine if there buyers or sellers ...

BUT , there are teams that already know they are going to buy and if those teams have something we like  , we should be calling them to see if we have something they like ...

We don't necessarily have to wait for every team , yes it could create a bidding war , if our front office is as smart as they think they are then the return should be just as good  , get on the phone , get out front and stay out front , quit sucking hind tit ...

I say think outside the box and  get a quick start ahead of the other teams that will be sellers , they just might end up with the talent we want  ...

[DocBauer]

10 hours ago, Eris said:

What about the Sam Dyson trade?

Just to be clear, the Twins traded a collection of marginal prospects for Dyson, and nothing substantial. Dyson wasn't known to be a bad guy at the time, but he was also hiding an injury at the time that nobody seemed to catch on either side.

At the same time, the Twins DID get a really good RP in Sergio Romo for a similar price.

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, nclahammer said:

"The Mahle trade didn’t work out for either side in hindsight."  Really?  Spencer Steer had 43 homers and 178 RBI in his first two season with the Reds.  Toss in 71 doubles, 40 stolen bases and 148 runs scored and I would say Cincinnati made out like bandits in this trade with Minnesota and it's not even close.  Jeepers.

I wouldn't mind having Steer on the Twins right now filling a role. Considering he's not that great at any position, I'd probably have him at 1B.

However, and this is not a slight to him as a useful ML player, he's been below league average except for a good 2023. He's been below league average since. 

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

"The Mahle trade didn't work out for either side in hindsight" - what? The Twins lost the Mahle trade.

While CES is having an injury plagued year, he's shown signs of brilliance and is still very much a part of the team's Big League plans. Meanwhile, Steer has become the Reds everyday 1B and is on pace for 20 HR and 80 RBI. 

Am I missing something here? Mahle was garbage as a Twin and I'd much rather have Spencer Steer at 1B than Ty France, and I bet most GMs would agree. 

I don't disagree with you. I think the vision the Twins had of Mahle is what he's been showing this season. Poor luck or bad timing for the trade?

And I'd rather have Steer at 1B than France. I think the OP is being a little loose in his interpretation of a mutual loss to be sure. I think the Twins lost this trade for sure. What i THINK should have been stated is the Reds slightly won the trade with a league average OPS performer in Steer. And if Steer takes another step forward, it becomes a bigger loss.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, P Meyer said:

then you will need to spend on the guys like Ty France and Kody Clemens less often.

Neither one of those guys costs more than  rookie.

[TheLeviathan]

9 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I’m generally in agreement that we shouldn’t be trading established players for prospects except that we should either re-sign the guys on expiring contracts that we want to keep or trade them. Castro and Bader both have real value, Coloumbe and Stewart have some. Those 4 are worth trading for prospects unless you’re gonna sign them now to bring them back next year. 

I’m very much against trading anybody with value and multiple years of control for prospects, including but not limited to Ryan, Jax, and Duran. I would keep them all myself, but if you’re going to trade one of them, you must get back a controllable MLB middle of the order bat. This team is not good this year, but they’re not so far off that they couldn’t be good next year. Not a time to blow things up by trading quality players unless you get real MLB quality back.

What team is going to take their number 5 hitter and offer it up for a closer in July?

Like.....in what world would that ever happen?