Schrödinger’s First Baseman: Has Ty France Had a Successful Year?

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of © Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

In a vacuum, the Ty France signing has been a success. Any time a team can get value from a $1-million signing via free agency, that’s a victory. If your measuring stick is salary versus FanGraphs WAR dollar value, then I guess that’s enough. If you believe that having a non-embarrassment on the team is worth more than $1 million, there we go.

But baseball is more complicated than that. We have to compare that against other markers of success. If a team spent $26 million on 26 Ty France-level performers, they still wouldn’t be very good overall. Compounding this, Ty France has been, let’s just say, highly irregular this season—at least in some ways, because in others, he’s been very regular. Let’s break down the many ways to view Ty France.

Let’s start with the obvious one: his performance in clutch situations. Baseball Reference classifies leverage differently than FanGraphs, but under both sites’ definitions, France has performed significantly better in high-leverage situations than in low-leverage situations. According to Baseball Reference, France is slashing .457/.519/.565 in high leverage, and FanGraphs has him at .500/.583/.650. Those are otherworldly numbers, especially compared to his .570 and .549 OPSes in low leverage, according to the two sites.

With runners on, France is hitting .330 with an .809 OPS, about 30% above average. When men are in scoring position, that goes up to a .381 average and an .856 OPS, about 40% above average. Few hitters have performed better when it counts than France has this season. However, with the bases empty, he has just a .227 average and a .629 OPS, about 20% below average.

When France has done damage this year, it’s in spots that count. He’s outperformed his overall averages, which has helped him place second on the team in RBIs (35) and first in win probability added (1.20). But when the moment isn’t big, and when he doesn’t have a chance to drive someone in, he’s been worse than pedestrian. There are a number of potential explanations for this. Perhaps France has clutch magic. Maybe he changes his approach. I’m not really sure what the reason is, but it’s a discrepancy worth noting.

If you take his stellar performance when it counts and add in his poor performance when the moments are smaller, he’s a roughly league-average hitter. By OPS, he’s exactly average, and by wRC+, he’s 5% above average. It’s close enough to just call him an average hitter. He’s an average hitter who does his damage when the team needs it. And roughly average hitters are valuable. By definition, “average hitter” describes a large swath of the league's batters, and there's no shame in being part of that fraternity. But France is a first baseman. First basemen are supposed to hit, and hit for power.

France’s hitting profile is more contact-oriented than power-oriented. In addition to leading the Twins in RBIs, he also leads in hits (63) and batting average (.273). However, he only has a .372 slugging average, which is below the league average of .395—not what you’d typically expect from a first baseman. His isolated power—slugging minus batting average—is .100, which is 149th of 166 among qualified hitters. He’s mostly a singles hitter, which (again) isn’t what you typically expect from a first baseman. He's only got four home runs on the season and is on track for about 10.

However, first basemen are not the hitters that they used to be, compared to hitters in general. Fifteen years ago, the average first baseman was 20% better than average. This season, the position as a whole is only 7% above average, which is just 2% better than France by wRC+. Overall, even without the power, he’s been roughly average, even among first basemen. And it’s been right around the same level of productivity that Twins first basemen have performed at since 2009.

But that’s nothing to get too excited about. The Twins have struggled to produce runs from first base over the last 15 years. There are 17 first basemen with more than 70 plate appearances at the position who have been better hitters than France. It’s part of the reason France’s name gets brought up often as a displacement candidate at the trade deadline. First base can be improved.

And, again, it’s hard to believe he can continue to cram all of his production into the biggest moments. That’s not really a predictive trait. Speaking of predictive, though, it’s possible that France is getting unlucky. I know some of you just groaned, but there’s evidence that France has been playing worse than his underlying metrics would lead one to believe.

France is underperforming his expected weighted on-base average—a stat that tries to give proper weight to each individual outcome (singles, walks, home runs, etc.) in a single three-digit decimal. By his Statcast metrics, France is one of the biggest underperformers in baseball. How do the nerds reason? Well, even though he never walks (though he does lead the league in getting hit by pitches), he also doesn’t swing and miss or strike out very often. He puts the ball in play a lot, squaring it up quite often, but having mostly average quality of contact. Putting that together, he puts the ball in play a lot while maintaining average damage, so he should be solidly above average as a hitter. His slugging should be a bit higher than it is now, as well.

The odd part about these underlying metrics is that they’re more favorable than even France’s best years in Seattle, including an All-Star campaign. He’s putting together good plate appearances, and he’s probably hitting the ball on the ground too much, but it’s possible his performance could improve from here.

And while we’re on the topic of the first base position and Statcast, did you know France has been the third-most valuable defender on the Twins by Statcast’s OAA (outs above average)? His 4 OAA fits right between Harrison Bader’s 5 and Byron Buxton’s 3. Defensive statistics are messy, and first base is a difficult spot to judge due to scooping ability and whatnot. Still, by the eye test, I wouldn’t say there have been a ton of balls France has outright made a bad play on, or that I’ve thought that he should have gotten to but didn't. It’s especially strange after France’s 2024, in which he was the seventh-worst defender in MLB by OAA across all positions (-12).

And let’s circle back to the price tag. Again, basically any level of useful production makes the money worth it, but signing France precludes another signing. Granted, the Twins were reportedly working with little funds this offseason. And France isn’t displacing anyone at the position. Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, and Mickey Gasper, the other options at first base, have each performed poorly enough in Minnesota to be sent to the minor leagues. So, even as a league-average bat, it’s nice to have France around.

Beneath all the hullaballoo, France has been a league-average batter, but he’s at one of the premier offensive positions, so he’s closer to below average than above average, and his style of production doesn't fit that of a normal first baseman. Nearly all of that league-average production has come in high leverage and with men on base, though, so he’s helped the Twins win games. That outsized effect on winning probably won’t keep up—at least to this degree—but he’s performed under his expected production all season long. And he’s been a good defender. All for a million bucks, but also at the opportunity cost of another player.

What do you think? Is there an angle that I’ve missed? Is France having a good season?

Maybe WAR has it right. Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs have France at 0.7 wins above replacement. Over a full season, that would track to be 1.5 or 2.0 WAR, which would be a borderline starter or good bench player. Maybe that's it?

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

Ty France is a player who so far has produced at about league average, while playing better than advertised defense.  Luckily for him, he seems to hit best in spots that matter most.  I doubt it's an actual skill, but lucky is just fine if it's on your side.  He gets on base at a good pace, which is also a valuable skill (as is, apparently, getting hit by pitches).

In a vacuum, I would prefer a player like Freddie Freeman, or prime Albert Puhols, but we don't live there.  For the investment, you've got to be pleased with what France has brought to the table so far.  If it continues, I will definitely call his year successful.  He is most definitely better than anybody else we could/would put there at this point.  

[FlyingFinn]

If you assume the Twins have an internal hard cap, France is performing great. He hits in clutch situations, doesn't strike out and plays good defense. We really aren't looking for someone who hits but not in the clutch, who strikes out a lot and doesn't play D well, right!?

[DocBauer]

The one thing I've often wondered is what if ownership had gone to the  FO in December and told them they had an extra $10-15M to spend. Would they have done things differently? Would they have moved as much of Vazquez's contract, signed a less expensive #2 catcher, maybe not signed Bader, and spent more on acquiring a different 1B option? What would that have looked Ike? Would we be better with a different 1B and no Bader? We'll never know, but I do wonder at times. 

But I digress.

While the signing of France didn't get me excited, I did comment before it happened that I liked him better than the options that remained. Healthy and only 30yo, he at least offered some upside the remaining candidates didn't seem to have. But what he's done so far is simply difficult to describe. How can he be so good with runners on and in scoring position but be so below average otherwise? Does he change his mental or physical approach? Maybe both? Is he pitched differently? I doubt even France himself has a clue.

I think it's honest and fair to say we'd all like to see 1B addressed in some manner for 2026 and beyond with someone who has more power, and can do more total damage from that position. It's been a long time. 

As Greg fairly points out, he could easily regress. But he could also maintain his current production, and possibly improve when you look at underlying numbers.

I have to wonder...without studying his whole career...has he changed his approach to sacrifice the power he's shown in the past for a more contact driven approach? He does seem to usually take professional AB. So is this an experienced veteran making a deliberate change? 

IMO, an IDEAL lineup has a few guys with power who can mash. The Twins have a couple of those, more if/when Lewis gets his game together. And you have a couple of guys who can provide some speed. We don't have a lot of that, but Buxton, Castro, and Bader fit the bill, and Keaschall when he's back. But you should also have a couple of guys who are more contact driven, with doubles power and the occasional HR, who just put the ball in play and spray it around. Has France morphed in to that kind of hitter?

We still have almost 2/3 of the season to play and France can regress, maintain, or progress. Right now, I'd be ecstatic if he just maintained while hitting around 6-7 behind other good hitters and keep finding opportunities to knock guys in. His defense has been fine, if not great. I'd love to see someone next season, and beyond, who can be more of a difference maker. But regardless of salary, he's still about league average overall as a hitter. And that works for now if he maintains.

Hes not great. But he's OK, especially when you realize how much 1B across the league has really changed the past few years. Again, hes not great. I'd like better. But he certainly hasn't been the problem with the offense.

[Eris]

If the Twins do not make the playoffs, Ty France will not be the main reason. 

[mark sills]

considering if we didn't pick him up. I would bet we are way below 500, so a great signing in my eyes

[thelanges5]

Vive la 🇫🇷

[David Maro]

Where's Joey Gallo!!

[Rufus]

My god,  I hate all these stupid stats. Just watch the damn game let that tell you who is performing.  No he is not a HOF candidate. But he is the guy I want to see at the plate in clutch situations  He has played an adequate 1st base and he costs a million bucks.

The problem with Twins Daily is there are so many wanna be writers and analyist and not enough interesting articles to write.  

[Greggory Masterson]

24 minutes ago, Rufus said:

My god,  I hate all these stupid stats. Just watch the damn game let that tell you who is performing.  No he is not a HOF candidate. But he is the guy I want to see at the plate in clutch situations  He has played an adequate 1st base and he costs a million bucks.

The problem with Twins Daily is there are so many wanna be writers and analysists  and not enough interesting articles to write.  

I too hate RBIs

[Brandon]

Who are the other 1B options that we had with the resources available?  That tells you if this is a good signing.  Odds are it was the best move available.  If he knocks 80-90 RBIs that’s what matters most I guess the other numbers predict how likely that is to continue.  So far the 35 RBIs suggest his signing for a million is a great value.  His clutch numbers do too.  He is not someone you want up to start the rally however.  And for his numbers outside of RBI to be presentable, he needs to keep his average over .270. If his power numbers pick up and he ends the season with 550 AB and 30-35 2Bs and 12 -15 HRs with his average over .270 he may get resigned to stay another year.  Unless Cleveland pays him 12 million to replace Santana next year….

[LambchoP]

I think he's been a great one year holdover pickup, especially for the cheap price we got him for. He's improved his defense immensely and been one of the better defenders at first this year. He's coming through in the clutch and hitting with guys in scoring position. You'd like to see more power and home runs from 1st base, but for 1 million they've got to be happy. Imagine if we'd have had to rely on Miranda and Julien like they thought of doing. I do think the Twins need a long term solution at first, starting next year. Either move Lewis there, see if Larnach can do it, or they need to sign someone with some pop.

[Brandon]

15 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

I too hate RBIs

RBIs aren’t a predictable stat or even a gauge stat.  But they are likely the 2nd most important stat behind runs.  You have to score to win.

[TwinsDr2021]

The question was - Has Ty France Had a Successful Year?

Based on how he hit in 23 and 24, I think the answer is yes, Based on 20,21,22 the answer is probably no. IMO I would assume he has been pretty happy with how he is doing in pressure situation and probably not as happy in the "non" pressure situations. I would assume he was hoping for a bit better so maybe somebody would give him a multiple year contract next season. 

If the question was meant to be - was signing Ty France a successful signing for the Twins. To me it is all relative, for the contract the answer is yes, having a first basemen with and OPS+ of 102, maybe not so much, but again at the cost, compared to other first basemen signings, probably yes again. By signing him that took away the option of seeing if Wallner, Larnach, Lewis were/all capable. (The Twins don't seem to think these are real options)

 

[Vanimal46]

Just look back at the FA class last year and France is among the best choices we could have made. 

$20+ million guys:

Christian Walker - .623 OPS with negative bWAR

Pete Alonso - .928 OPS with 2.8 bWAR. Would have loved him but 0% chance Pohlads were extending the budget that much. 

$12 million guys:

Goldschmidt and old friend Santana continue to defy Father Time with productive seasons for NYY and CLE

$5-6 million guys:

Josh Bell has been terrible for Washington. Justin Turner has been bad for Cubs 

Other guys in France’s salary bracket $1-1.75 million:

Gavin Sheets is okay, Jake Bauers is okay, Rowdy Telez is terrible, and Yuli Gurriel is terrible

[Linus]

If you are not a true power guy then swing the bat like France. I would love his production if he was a good fielding middle infielder, first not so much. I think his defense is average. He’s good at starting double plays and making scoops. His range is okay and is poor for fielding foul pops.   After the last two games I can’t comment on his baserunning for fear of violating site policy. He was a good choice for the Twins but he won’t be playing for a team with World Series aspirations. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A whole lot of word in this article to answer the question... All I need is one:

Yes.

[jkcarew]

It’s like buying a thousand shares of a $1-dollar stock hoping it might double or triple, but it just sits at $1.05. Almost nothing ventured, (next to) nothing gained.

But, yes…it’s better than buying a $10 stock and having it settle at 1.05.

[KirbyDome89]

Compare him to his peers.

Bottom tier in terms of 1B slugging. Bottom tier in OBP, and FWIW Fangraphs has him as a bottom tier defender as well. 

 

[alexlegge]

Sound analysis overall. He's been decent enough.

Frankly, I think there's a very good comp at first base in recent team history, one whose ceiling as a first baseman ended up being a little over 4 WAR. That probably is roughly what I'd estimate it is for France, as well...

[stringer bell]

France's season has been analyzed into the ground IMHO. He's not going to put up Big Hurt numbers, but he's been reliable and came through in a lot of key situations. His defense has been a pleasant surprise, as well. Good for him.

[Mike Sixel]

He's been great in clutch situations. Of course, other hitters would have more RBI opportunities if he got on base in other situations....

But, given the other options, internal and external, he's been great. 

[PseudoSABR]

Wtf? 12K pages? What am I missing?

[Greggory Masterson]

3 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

Wtf? 12K pages? What am I missing?

Sadly this one only got one page. It’s a reference to a popular meme, taken to mean a long, perhaps nonsensical, fruitless debate that nonetheless has very opinionated people viciously arguing  sorry for the confusion.

https://amp.knowyourmeme.com/memes/the-greatest-thread-in-the-history-of-forums-locked-by-a-moderator-after-12239-pages-of-heated-debate

[Bodie]

On 6/10/2025 at 5:30 PM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Ty France is a player who so far has produced at about league average, while playing better than advertised defense.  Luckily for him, he seems to hit best in spots that matter most.  I doubt it's an actual skill, but lucky is just fine if it's on your side.  He gets on base at a good pace, which is also a valuable skill (as is, apparently, getting hit by pitches).

In a vacuum, I would prefer a player like Freddie Freeman, or prime Albert Puhols, but we don't live there.  For the investment, you've got to be pleased with what France has brought to the table so far.  If it continues, I will definitely call his year successful.  He is most definitely better than anybody else we could/would put there at this point.  

C'mon!!!!

Everyone knew coming into the season that any combo of Julien, Miranda and Kirilloff would be better than this dumpster signing!  Everyone!!!!  Never mind that none had any experience at 1B.  Never mind that 2 of the 3 have yet to display any defensive awareness at their natural positions.  Nor anything approaching "defensive versatility".  Ignore that one is actually retired. 

Now we have this cheapo signing making every Twins produced product look bad by being "clutch" when most Twins reaction to the word "clutch" is a mumble about "I have an automatic..."

 

Horrible signing, getting worse with every game winning hit and 1B scoop he performs!!