Schrödinger’s First Baseman: Has Ty France Had a Successful Year?

In a vacuum, the Ty France signing has been a success. Any time a team can get value from a $1-million signing via free agency, that’s a victory. If your measuring stick is salary versus FanGraphs WAR dollar value, then I guess that’s enough. If you believe that having a non-embarrassment on the team is worth more than $1 million, there we go.

But baseball is more complicated than that. We have to compare that against other markers of success. If a team spent $26 million on 26 Ty France-level performers, they still wouldn’t be very good overall. Compounding this, Ty France has been, let’s just say, highly irregular this season—at least in some ways, because in others, he’s been very regular. Let’s break down the many ways to view Ty France.

Let’s start with the obvious one: his performance in clutch situations. Baseball Reference classifies leverage differently than FanGraphs, but under both sites’ definitions, France has performed significantly better in high-leverage situations than in low-leverage situations. According to Baseball Reference, France is slashing .457/.519/.565 in high leverage, and FanGraphs has him at .500/.583/.650. Those are otherworldly numbers, especially compared to his .570 and .549 OPSes in low leverage, according to the two sites.

With runners on, France is hitting .330 with an .809 OPS, about 30% above average. When men are in scoring position, that goes up to a .381 average and an .856 OPS, about 40% above average. Few hitters have performed better when it counts than France has this season. However, with the bases empty, he has just a .227 average and a .629 OPS, about 20% below average.

When France has done damage this year, it’s in spots that count. He’s outperformed his overall averages, which has helped him place second on the team in RBIs (35) and first in win probability added (1.20). But when the moment isn’t big, and when he doesn’t have a chance to drive someone in, he’s been worse than pedestrian. There are a number of potential explanations for this. Perhaps France has clutch magic. Maybe he changes his approach. I’m not really sure what the reason is, but it’s a discrepancy worth noting.

If you take his stellar performance when it counts and add in his poor performance when the moments are smaller, he’s a roughly league-average hitter. By OPS, he’s exactly average, and by wRC+, he’s 5% above average. It’s close enough to just call him an average hitter. He’s an average hitter who does his damage when the team needs it. And roughly average hitters are valuable. By definition, “average hitter” describes a large swath of the league's batters, and there's no shame in being part of that fraternity. But France is a first baseman. First basemen are supposed to hit, and hit for power.

France’s hitting profile is more contact-oriented than power-oriented. In addition to leading the Twins in RBIs, he also leads in hits (63) and batting average (.273). However, he only has a .372 slugging average, which is below the league average of .395—not what you’d typically expect from a first baseman. His isolated power—slugging minus batting average—is .100, which is 149th of 166 among qualified hitters. He’s mostly a singles hitter, which (again) isn’t what you typically expect from a first baseman. He's only got four home runs on the season and is on track for about 10.

However, first basemen are not the hitters that they used to be, compared to hitters in general. Fifteen years ago, the average first baseman was 20% better than average. This season, the position as a whole is only 7% above average, which is just 2% better than France by wRC+. Overall, even without the power, he’s been roughly average, even among first basemen. And it’s been right around the same level of productivity that Twins first basemen have performed at since 2009.

But that’s nothing to get too excited about. The Twins have struggled to produce runs from first base over the last 15 years. There are 17 first basemen with more than 70 plate appearances at the position who have been better hitters than France. It’s part of the reason France’s name gets brought up often as a displacement candidate at the trade deadline. First base can be improved.

And, again, it’s hard to believe he can continue to cram all of his production into the biggest moments. That’s not really a predictive trait. Speaking of predictive, though, it’s possible that France is getting unlucky. I know some of you just groaned, but there’s evidence that France has been playing worse than his underlying metrics would lead one to believe.

France is underperforming his expected weighted on-base average—a stat that tries to give proper weight to each individual outcome (singles, walks, home runs, etc.) in a single three-digit decimal. By his Statcast metrics, France is one of the biggest underperformers in baseball. How do the nerds reason? Well, even though he never walks (though he does lead the league in getting hit by pitches), he also doesn’t swing and miss or strike out very often. He puts the ball in play a lot, squaring it up quite often, but having mostly average quality of contact. Putting that together, he puts the ball in play a lot while maintaining average damage, so he should be solidly above average as a hitter. His slugging should be a bit higher than it is now, as well.

The odd part about these underlying metrics is that they’re more favorable than even France’s best years in Seattle, including an All-Star campaign. He’s putting together good plate appearances, and he’s probably hitting the ball on the ground too much, but it’s possible his performance could improve from here.

And while we’re on the topic of the first base position and Statcast, did you know France has been the third-most valuable defender on the Twins by Statcast’s OAA (outs above average)? His 4 OAA fits right between Harrison Bader’s 5 and Byron Buxton’s 3. Defensive statistics are messy, and first base is a difficult spot to judge due to scooping ability and whatnot. Still, by the eye test, I wouldn’t say there have been a ton of balls France has outright made a bad play on, or that I’ve thought that he should have gotten to but didn't. It’s especially strange after France’s 2024, in which he was the seventh-worst defender in MLB by OAA across all positions (-12).

And let’s circle back to the price tag. Again, basically any level of useful production makes the money worth it, but signing France precludes another signing. Granted, the Twins were reportedly working with little funds this offseason. And France isn’t displacing anyone at the position. Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, and Mickey Gasper, the other options at first base, have each performed poorly enough in Minnesota to be sent to the minor leagues. So, even as a league-average bat, it’s nice to have France around.

Beneath all the hullaballoo, France has been a league-average batter, but he’s at one of the premier offensive positions, so he’s closer to below average than above average, and his style of production doesn't fit that of a normal first baseman. Nearly all of that league-average production has come in high leverage and with men on base, though, so he’s helped the Twins win games. That outsized effect on winning probably won’t keep up—at least to this degree—but he’s performed under his expected production all season long. And he’s been a good defender. All for a million bucks, but also at the opportunity cost of another player.

What do you think? Is there an angle that I’ve missed? Is France having a good season?

Maybe WAR has it right. Both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs have France at 0.7 wins above replacement. Over a full season, that would track to be 1.5 or 2.0 WAR, which would be a borderline starter or good bench player. Maybe that's it?