What's Behind Twins Slugger Royce Lewis's Struggles at the Plate?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

It’s no secret that Royce Lewis hasn’t looked like himself at the plate this season. Through May 28, Lewis is hitting just .138, with a ..415 OPS. His OPS+, which is adjusted for park, is sitting at a brutal 25, meaning that Lewis has been about 75% worse than an average hitter. After Wednesday's finale against the Rays, he told Bobby Nightingale of the Star Tribune: "I'm at a point where the hope is gone. I just do my job the best I can. If I keep hitting the ball hard, they say it's going to find a hole, but I haven't seen it yet."

Oof. That’s not great, for a player expected to be a cornerstone of the Twins lineup, and to hit in the middle of the order. Is this a case of Lewis doing the whole slump thing? Or perhaps he’s still rusty and finding his stroke, since he missed the last portion of spring training? Maybe he has just been unlucky. Or, it could be a combination of factors impacting his results. Let’s dig in and see what we find out.

Luck
Let’s start here, because this is absolutely part of the equation. You probably remember the homer that Jackson Chourio robbed to end the 13-game winning streak. Unlucky, for sure.

There have been a few other high-expected batting average plays that unfortunately found a fielder’s glove. In the past four games alone, Lewis has hit four different balls with an expected batting average of at least .500. All of them were outs.

Aside from the eye test, what do advanced metrics tell us about Lewis’s luck so far in 2025? Well, Lewis is whiffing less than last year. His 90th-percentile exit velocity is up almost two miles per hour, compared to 2024. He’s cut his strikeout rate from a solid 22.8% last year to a shiny 15.2% in 2025.

Through May 28, Lewis has seen 138 fastballs, and put 30 of them into play. The results are a middling .205 batting average and a .333 slugging percentage. His expected numbers, however, look a fair bit better. His expected batting average is .246. That’s a sizable difference. The difference between his actual and expected slugging percentage on heaters is even more pronounced: Ignoring defense, he should be slugging .457.

Sure, you might be thinking that almost all hitters should be able to tee off on fastballs. What if I told you that he’s been even less lucky on breaking balls? It’s true. On 16 batted-ball events in this category, Lewis has both hit and slugged .063. Putrid. His expected numbers, though? He "should" have a .228 batting average and .382 slugging. Not incredible, but just fine.

He’s gone hitless on five balls in play against offspeed stuff. Expected? .078 average and .092 slugging. That’s still brutal, but slightly less so, I suppose.

This tells us that with luck aside, Lewis has been better than his results would indicate. Overall, this paints the picture that were the dice to come up a bit differently, he would be an average-ish hitter this season. The thing is, though, Lewis shouldn't be an average hitter. When he's right, he is far better than that. So, what else is going on that's holding him back at the plate?

Approach at the Plate
As you can see, last year, Lewis did real damage low and middle-in, and he excelled at pulling the ball in the air. 

He covered the shadow of the zone pretty well, doing damage low as well as high and outside. He did this by optimizing his launch angle everywhere except the top third of the zone. 

This year, he’s making the type of contact where the best-case scenario to the pull side is a bloop hit. See his pulled hits? A couple have been bloops between shortstop and third, and a couple have been right over the third baseman’s head.

So why is this? It turns out he's skying the ball inside, and beating it into the ground when it's low and away.

For an example of typical results with this approach, Thursday’s game against the Rays ended with a ball in play thrown to this exact inner third. Lewis hit the ball hard (99.2 mph), but hit it at 46 degrees, and it landed harmlessly in Chandler Simpson’s glove.

Why? Here’s where things get a little interesting. Through May 28, Lewis has pulled just 7.8% of his balls in the air. That’s less than half the major-league average, and it’s no way to live for a power hitter. Now, Lewis is still elevating the ball with power, but the majority of this has been up the middle or oppo, where most of these fly balls are just long outs. Here's his contact heat map for 2025.

Now, compare this to last season, and you will see a completely different style of spray chart.

What has caused Lewis to become a different hitter? Likely, it can be attributed to his stance at the plate, his swing path, and timing.

Pull hitters tend to swing just a bit earlier and/or faster than guys who use all fields to maximize the amount of barrel that can make contact with the ball in a way that generates the most favorable outcomes for them. The simple fact that Lewis is not pulling much suggests that his timing is off. That's pretty straightforward.

Now, let’s look at his stance at the plate. Here’s 2024. His stance is pretty neutral: square, centered on the plate.

Next, let’s look at 2025.

As you can see, he’s widened his stance a bit, with his feet a couple inches farther apart than last year, and his back foot is farther behind the plate and tilted toward the catcher. As he meets the ball, his front foot extends a couple inches less past the plate than his aggregate swing from a year ago, and his back foot straightens and tilts very slightly toward the pitcher. Positioning back slightly will give him an extra split-second to recognize his pitch, but the wider stance is likely making it tougher for him to truly square up. Further complicating things is that, ideally, there’s some strong followthrough in the stride to help a hitter’s body weight drive the ball farther. In 2025, Lewis has a bit less of a stride than in 2024. 

Lewis's stance is just different, not in a good way, and the changes have resulted in him not only pulling the ball less, but also generally being less effective to all fields. For a hitter with more raw power (think Aaron Judge or Oneil Cruz), sacrificing some pull power in favor of using all fields more may work. For Lewis, with his good-but-not-elite power, the tradeoff doesn't seem worth it.

So, we have established that Lewis has gotten pretty unlucky through his limited action in 2025. This will regress positively as the season progresses. However, this regression will likely lead to Lewis being an average hitter, rather than a great one. To reclaim his true upside, he will need to adjust his stance, swing path, and overall approach at the plate. Lewis has shown himself capable of and willing to make real adjustments to his game throughout his career. The question is how long it will take for him to do so. If he can get his swing right sooner, rather than later, all of a sudden this lineup can look pretty formidable.

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[Patzky]

Fascinating. And less doom and gloom then saying He's Toast.

However these adjustments need to be made in a less impactful setting than in the middle of the lineup on an MLB team in the playoffs hunt. It's nice in St Paul .. and you won't have to play in the Florida heat.

[Mark G]

Okay, I know this is Sooo 20th century, but is it possible, just possible mind you, that the fancy computers that give out all the stat info shared here also spit out info on how to pitch to the guy and the pitchers are succeeding?  As a wise man once said, you can hit it as hard as you want, but if you hit it where the pitcher wants you to hit it, you are just as likely to be out as if you dribbled it.  Maybe the league just caught up with him and the adjustments he is trying to make aren't the right ones?  And when the next adjustments ARE the right ones he will be back to the Royce we knew and loved?  Hitters aren't the only ones with advanced tools; pitchers use them too.  But, as always, I can be educated.  🫠

[Whitey333]

Sometimes I wonder if hitters are are just plain being inundated with too much information.  Metric gone wild.  Perhaps some players, even Royce Lewis, get information overload.  Thinking too much about metrics and how to hit when maybe he should just hit.  Remember what made him a hitter and a major league player and a good hitter.  Just hit Royce!  You can do it.  Just unclog your mind with all the info you may be receiving.  Just relax, hit,  you can do it.  Not hitting due to luck?  That's  ridiculous.

BTW perhaps the writer of the article should be the hitting coach of the Twins.  He certainly seems to have all the answers.  Or at least he thinks he does.

[Old Twins Cap]

I'm no expert, but it look like his back leg swings out when he swings and it is robbing him of his power.

Get an overhead camera angle on that back leg and watch.

If the Twins can't see that his stance is screwed up, then I give up.

Quote

 

 

[PatG]

Nice analysis...but analysis is after the fact.

Royce came back from recent injury to just "not hit"....after bout a month, he started stroking singles to right field.  Wa La.....put him batting 3rd, immediately!....WHY??

I think they (Rocco) should keep Royce hitting in the 7th, 8th or 9th position till he starts stroking doubles off the right field fence, then re-evaluate (do analysis).

Correa did this right field deal to get himself back on track.

Also, tell Royce to get comfortable in the batters' box, all this fidgeting is not helping....perhaps lose 5 lbs (sauna??)

[Parfigliano]

This will not be popular but could it be this is the real Royce we are now seeing and grand slam guy that burst on the scene isn't?  

[tony&rodney]

Two budding stars in 2023 with similar WAR (2.6 & 2.4) have fallen badly. One is hallowed and still very much a point of focus, both for the Twins and Twins Daily. The other guy was never accepted, most often a point of derision and ridicule, and then rightfully demoted to AAA where the struggles continue. At a minimum it is an interesting look at bias. More clearly it is an example that baseball is a difficult sport to master. Hopefully both fellows have good lives. Maybe one or both can manage to find the keys to succeed.

[Trov]

49 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Sometimes I wonder if hitters are are just plain being inundated with too much information.  Metric gone wild.  Perhaps some players, even Royce Lewis, get information overload.  Thinking too much about metrics and how to hit when maybe he should just hit.  Remember what made him a hitter and a major league player and a good hitter.  Just hit Royce!  You can do it.  Just unclog your mind with all the info you may be receiving.  Just relax, hit,  you can do it.  Not hitting due to luck?  That's  ridiculous.

BTW perhaps the writer of the article should be the hitting coach of the Twins.  He certainly seems to have all the answers.  Or at least he thinks he does.

I fully agree, you get so much info and break it down to the littlest things sometimes you start overthinking everything.  Should my foot be here, or there, should my hands be half an inch lower.  Yes, there has always been the tried and true things, but if baseball has taught people anything over the years, there is no 100% right way to do something.  We have seen crazy stances make great results, then we would see guys like Ripken Jr. coming up with new stance every year it would seem.  We would hear the sage advice of find a good pitch to hit and not miss it. 

I remember for years Buck would be told a new way to hit and he would struggle then say I am going back to what worked for me my whole life.  I have not heard much about changes he has made lately, but it seems like we adjust the young hitters saying if you do not fix this issue you will fail, but then you are asking to change something that is so ingrained in their mind at the smallest adjustments.  This can be hard to do. 

[Patzky]

44 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

This will not be popular but could it be this is the real Royce we are now seeing and grand slam guy that burst on the scene isn't?  

It seems really hard to 'fake' that level of success for an extended period of time doesn't it?

[Blyleven2011]

From the eye test ...

Lewis has an injury and goes on the IL list , rehabs his hamstring  and gets healthy enough to start playing games in AAA , hardly a handful of games played , no real results to shake off the rust , gets promoted  and the rust is still there and so is the injury ...

He was brought up to soon and isn't 100 % , he needs to go back to AAA and shake the rust  , work on his confidence and get healthy  ...

Not the same Lewis who once drove a rolls royce and the eye test suggest he isn't having fun being a player playing below league average players ...

[Parfigliano]

4 minutes ago, Patzky said:

It seems really hard to 'fake' that level of success for an extended period of time doesn't it?

MLB history is full of guys who hit for 1/2 to 1 year then never did it again.  So far that's Royce Lewis.

[DJL44]

He has been robbed by the defense several times. That isn't a problem if you put the ball over the fence. We need a Royce Lewis who hits dingers. Please don't turn him into Ty France.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

59 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Two budding stars in 2023 with similar WAR (2.6 & 2.4) have fallen badly. One is hallowed and still very much a point of focus, both for the Twins and Twins Daily. The other guy was never accepted, most often a point of derision and ridicule, and then rightfully demoted to AAA where the struggles continue. At a minimum it is an interesting look at bias. More clearly it is an example that baseball is a difficult sport to master. Hopefully both fellows have good lives. Maybe one or both can manage to find the keys to succeed.

For approximately the past year, Royce Lewis has been atrocious at the plate, yet for some strange reason we keep trotting him out there and calling him a “star” whose hitting is key to the season. “Some” hitting is indeed key to the season.  It doesn’t have to come from him.  Perhaps the odds of that hitting coming from Royce Lewis would increase with a stint in St. Paul to clear his head and work on his hitting in a lower pressure situation. The way things are going now for him, I don’t see the downside. 

On the flip side, it may not work.  So far it hasn’t worked with that other guy (Julien), but that doesn’t mean that it won’t in the future.  I’m not sure why we are so hesitant to send him down.  We’ve done it before with lots of players (Wallner, Buxton, Sano, a bevy of pitchers, etc.).  Why not Royce Lewis.

[1985Fan]

This is why there are minor leagues. Learning at the big league level is painful and much harder against the best pitchers in the world. Checking Lewis’s stats, I count 199 AAA AB’s. I think he didn’t have enough AB’s at AAA to build a base of hitting knowledge to understand what pitchers are doing to get you out. I read that his hitting mechanics were changed while in the lower minors. He should have had more time at AAA to cement the new mechanics before being thrown into the fire. I really question Twins player development. Be careful what we wish for as fans. Rushing top prospects through the system doesn’t work well for the player or the team. 

[Linus]

Lots of Good information but equally as important is how he is being pitched to. Did pitchers start pitching him differently halfway through last year?  Can Royce adjust?  I hope he figures it out but many a hitter has burst on the scene only struggle once the league gets a book on them. 

[bean5302]

Probably a few things going on with Lewis. Lewis didn't just hit well for 1/2 a year. He was a monster. He was hitting breaking balls, fastballs and covering a ton of the strike zone. The one year wonder guys almost always do it off pure luck despite glaring weaknesses. The Danny Santana's of the world, rocking their .400 BABIP despite 50% ground ball rates. Royce Lewis began that way in 2023, but within a few weeks, Lewis was even better and earning it.

His health and potential mechanics are the issues. He's going to be elite when he's on the field and healthy. Not sure that will happen a whole lot, but Lewis didn't get his success through the batters equivalent smoke and mirrors.

I assume the above comment about two players treated differently are Eddie Julien and Royce Lewis. Julien always had glaring weaknesses against breaking pitches and major portions of the plate. Julien was always following a razor thin path in terms of sustainability, and he's going to need to make major adjustments to his approach in order to succeed. He's also going to need to believe in the process.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

It seems really hard to 'fake' that level of success for an extended period of time doesn't it?

It was fewer than 400 Plate Appearances including his playoffs. It just seems like a long stretch because he wasn't ever healthy and it was stretched over 3 years. 

That is fewer than Julien had in 2023 alone. There's as much reason to believe Julien will bounce back as there is with Royce. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

It seems really hard to 'fake' that level of success for an extended period of time doesn't it?

This would totally depend on what one defines as an extended period of time, right? If we are talking about a week or the one-third of a season in 2023 or the career which now is roughly equal to one season, one could come to wildly different conclusions. 

While I remain hopeful that Royce Lewis can recover his career at the MLB level, I have been consistently surprised at the references to Lewis as a critical core middle of the order hitter and staunch third baseman when the young man has unfortunately encountered the difficulties of playing baseball at the major league level. This has been the fate of too many phenoms in MLB history because baseball is a tough game to excel at on a consistent basis. We can only hope Lewis finds his way. 

[mikelink45]

This is two years of not hitting well.  It is not new.  There are 101 games of bad hitting versus the first 70 when we were expecting a star.  All the analytics in the world overload the fan as well as the player, but it comes down to the player the bat and the ball.  I hope something changes, but I remember well when Bob Hazle came to the Braves in Milwaukee and looked the next Ted WIlliams. 41 games, 403 average in 1957.  He led them to the World Series and then the bottom dropped out! 

[LambchoP]

His stance and overall approach at the plate just seems way off. If he's still hurt and came back too early, maybe another IL stint is in order. I think the best plan would be to have him sent down to the minors, out of the spotlight with minimal stress and work on the swing. Get some results, get his confidence back and then call him up when he's earned it. They can't keep running him out there the way he's going though, the lineup is struggling too much as it is.

[NYCTK]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This would totally depend on what one defines as an extended period of time, right? If we are talking about a week or the one-third of a season in 2023 or the career which now is roughly equal to one season, one could come to wildly different conclusions. 

While I remain hopeful that Royce Lewis can recover his career at the MLB level, I have been consistently surprised at the references to Lewis as a critical core middle of the order hitter and staunch third baseman when the young man has unfortunately encountered the difficulties of playing baseball at the major league level. This has been the fate of too many phenoms in MLB history because baseball is a tough game to excel at on a consistent basis. We can only hope Lewis finds his way. 

This is a fascinating time to be looking at his career because we are about at the point where he's had exactly half of his career as a great hitter and an equally long span where he's been a replacement level player. And it is poetic that this inflection happened around the time of his infamous "slumps" comment.

Before:

.319 / .377 / .606

After:

.190 / .252 / .330

So, he went from a hitter comparable to Yordan Alvarez, to someone that looks like Christian Vazquez in the batters box. Same player, two careers. A flip of the switch. 

[Guest]

Well done. 

I wonder whether the Twins' fantastic new hitting coaches see this, and more importantly, have had a chat with Lewis.  Based on that quote after the Rays' series, I'd bet on "no."

[D.C Twins]

I miss ROYCE F-ING LEWIS!

[David Maro]

The worst thing that could happen to a young player happen to him. He had a run of grand slam homeruns. Now everyone including him think he is a power hitter. He needs to go to St Paul to work on his approach at the plate. Hitting a homerun is not a every at bat approach. Even the booth talks homerun when Lewis steps into the box every at bat. I do remember a couple of weeks ago he had a great at bat when he hit a line drive up the middle with bases loaded. This is the kind of thing that can help turn things around for him.

[Patzky]

41 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

This is two years of not hitting well.  It is not new.  There are 101 games of bad hitting versus the first 70 when we were expecting a star.  All the analytics in the world overload the fan as well as the player, but it comes down to the player the bat and the ball.  I hope something changes, but I remember well when Bob Hazle came to the Braves in Milwaukee and looked the next Ted WIlliams. 41 games, 403 average in 1957.  He led them to the World Series and then the bottom dropped out! 

Hazle didn't have nearly the eyeblack necessary..

[Patzky]

10 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

I miss ROYCE F-ING LEWIS!

I miss Royce F-ing Lewis too but right now with men on base it's Ah **** Lewis is up.

[AKTwinsFan]

He just needs to go back to his old stance and bat. He's trying out any and every bat. Last season he just wasn't squaring up balls. Go back to what worked before bro. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Very extensive and detailed analysis Eric.  I get the luck part, but my concern is that if you understand and document his hitting stance issues, why do one of our what seems like 37 hitting coaches not see that and communicate that to Royce?

what makes you certain they aren't? Or that it is the right choice given his current health? Why does this site assume the team/coaches/players are just not doing their jobs at all all the time?

[RpR]

Luck excuse is BS; one's actions determine how fortunate or unfortunate one is.

Such decisions are determined in one's mind, his is now like a dud firecracker.