Chris Paddack is on a Roll, But So Far, His Resurgence is Little More Than a Mirage

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Chris Paddack's 2025 season has been a tale of two narratives. After a disastrous first start of the season against the White Sox wherein he surrendered nine earned runs over just 3 1/3 innings, Paddack has (seemingly) rebounded impressively. Over his other nine starts, he posted a commendable 2.59 ERA, suggesting a return to form for a pitcher who was only expected to be a back-of-the-rotation option. However, a deeper dive into his underlying metrics raises questions about the sustainability of this performance.

Surface Success vs. Underlying Metric
While Paddack's recent ERA is impressive, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) during this stretch stands at 3.77, over a run higher than his ERA. This discrepancy often indicates that a pitcher has benefited from factors outside their control, such as defensive support or favorable sequencing.

Moreover, Paddack's strikeout-to-walk ratio during this period is 33-to-15, over 48 2/3 innings. These totals translate to a strikeout rate (K%) of 16.1% and a walk rate (BB%) of 8.8%, both of which are career worsts for him. For context, the league average strikeout rate hovers around 22%, making Paddack's decline in strikeouts particularly concerning. If a pitcher doesn’t have a strikeout pitch, it can lead to longer at-bats, higher pitch counts, and quicker hooks.

Hard Contact and Batted-Ball Concerns
Paddack's batted-ball profile also augurs potential issues. His Hard Hit%, the percentage of opponents' batted balls hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, is at 45.1%. This total is significantly above the MLB average of 36.7%. His Hard Hit% ranks in the 23rd percentile, suggesting that hitters will start having more pitches fall in against him because of the regular solid contact they are making. 

His fastball has been concerning. Batters' expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is .460 versus his four-seamer, compared to an actual slugging percentage (SLG) of .299. This 161-point gap indicates that, based on the quality of contact, hitters should be slugging much higher against him. His velocity is slightly up on the pitch this season, so it’s more of a concern with his location than stuff. Such disparities often regress over time, potentially leading to more extra-base hits allowed.

Another red flag is the increase in pulled air balls against Paddack. His Pull AIR%, the percentage of balls hit in the air to the pull side, is at a career-high 19.1%, compared to the league average of 16.6%. Pulled fly balls are more likely to result in home runs, suggesting a heightened risk of long balls in the future. He’s given up seven home runs this season, but three came in his disastrous first outing. Batters will get luckier against him, and more fly balls will leave the yard. 

A closer look at Paddack's pitch arsenal reveals diminished effectiveness. In 2024, all four of his primary pitches achieved at least a 19% whiff rate. This season, only two pitches (the changeup and slider) have maintained that threshold, with whiff rates of 25.9% and 27.5%, respectively. His fastball, which he throws over 50% of the time, has a whiff rate of just 17.9% and is being hit hard, with a Hard Hit% of 51.8%. The decline in swing-and-miss capability across his arsenal suggests that hitters are seeing his pitches better, leading to more contact and, potentially, more damage.

While Paddack's recent stretch has provided a boost to the Twins' rotation, the underlying metrics paint a more cautionary tale. His reduced strikeout rate, increased walk rate, elevated hard contact rate, and declining isolated pitch effectiveness all point toward potential regression. Unless adjustments are made (such as refining pitch locations, altering pitch usage, or enhancing pitch movement), Paddack's current success may prove unsustainable. Monitoring and addressing these underlying issues will be crucial for the Twins to maintain their competitive edge in the coming weeks.

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What’s the most concerning part of Paddack’s underlying numbers? What can he do to avoid a future blowup? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Whitey333]

What a bunch of junk.  More ridiculous use of metrics mainly designed to make poor players look good and good or decent players putting up results to look bad.  Again baseball analytics making a nice simple fun game unnecessarily  complicated and cumbersome.  Over analyzing EVERYTHING!!  Ridiculous.

[Otaknam]

Blah, blah, blah. He is giving them 5 or 6 innings, which is what you want in a back of the rotation starter. No one expects him to be a 15 game winner. 

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks, Cody, for this interesting article. There's a lot I don't know about pitching analytics. IMO, Paddack trade was a bust. The Twins offered him a generous extension while he was rehabbing, so they could save face. I wish they had invested in a better, more dependable & cheaper SP at the time.

Last year, the Twins recouped some value on Paddack's short season. A flyball pitcher, he has greatly benefited from our superior OF of Buxton, Bader & Keirsey. I hope for the best for him, but after hardly pitching in recent years & a short season last year, I don't think he'll pitch much over 100 innings, pitching the way he is.

He has been pitching great for us lately, but he could pitch even better in the BP while conserving his arm. (I could be wrong), It could be an option to flip him (as a SP or RP) at the deadline if we could get a good trade in return, whether we are in the race or not. It's just an idea.

[mikelink45]

Let's just accept all his wins this year. He's going to be a free agent and most likely will go elsewhere. With the article on today's win, looking at ober's reduced velocity and this article, I guess festa and Matthews are looking at their opportunity for next year in the fall rotation. Or maybe SWR and Morris. 

[Brandon]

It’s good to be negative to kill the good vibes while things are going good.  How dare the Twins fans enjoy the good run Paddacks on right now.  We should all be reigned to a life of failure and lower expectations.  Success from Paddack is nothing to see here…. Move along….. He will be bad any minute now just wait.  Can the author point out good things in his metrics or explain that there are successful outliers despite the numbers?  What are your overall expectations from Paddack?  Mine is 120-140 innings of 3.5-4.00 ERA.  He is killing that right now.  So he has plenty of built in regression and still beat my expectations for him.  He has already justified his salary for the season.  I don’t know about you but I’m just enjoying the ride.  

[Jeff K]

It feels a bit over analyzed.  That said, Paddack appears to be a solid 4th or 5th starter.  He is strengthening his position to be traded to a team desperate for pitching depth.  He could be worth a good back up catcher.

[DJL44]

It was pretty obvious he won't be able to keep up these results. He had the best back-to-back starts of his career. He didn't suddenly get better, he got healthy and lucky at the same time. I still think he's a trade candidate.

[Coach Wheels]

40 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Blah, blah, blah. He is giving them 5 or 6 innings, which is what you want in a back of the rotation starter. No one expects him to be a 15 game winner. 

Completely agree with this post. Paddock is our 5th starter and hes getting 18 outs in recent starts which have helped make a 16-3 run in the month of May. Im 61 years old and I remember a time when ground ball outs were a sign of good pitching. Maddox, Glavine, etc were guys that won Cy Young awards, rings, and went to HOF. 

I choose to appreciate what Paddack has done this month and hope it continues. Over analyzing the game is not my strength, I choose to trust what see and not look for reasons to burn down the success.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

Completely agree with this post. Paddock is our 5th starter and hes getting 18 outs in recent starts which have helped make a 16-3 run in the month of May. Im 61 years old and I remember a time when ground ball outs were a sign of good pitching. Maddox, Glavine, etc were guys that won Cy Young awards, rings, and went to HOF. 

Why do people think Greg Maddux didn't strike people out? He had seven seasons in the top 10 in strikeouts and is 12th all-time in career strikeouts.

[Brandon]

Here is a fun stat.  The Twins have paid Paddack through the end of this season 12.525 million for his time with the Twins.  So far he has pitched 167.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA.  He has 142 Ks and 43 BBs.  His ERA is skewed by 3 or 4 bad starts.  He could throw another 100 innings this season.  Let’s just say he throws 60 with an ERA around the expected 3.75.  I would say 230 innings of 4.4 ERA is a solid value.  I feel pretty good with where we are now with his numbers vs his salary.  Overall Paddack has been what we paid him to be and possibly/ likely a little more.  

[bean5302]

Paddack is Kevin Correia circa 2013 is what the article is saying, and it's dead on point. While guys can stay lucky for the entire year, it's not normal to see it happen. Paddack getting results is great for the Twins, and he's gotten it done several times when the Twins felt absolutely desperate. I don't expect this to continue, but I'd love to swap his contract for something at the trade deadline if we can pull it off, and our depth allows for it.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Here is a fun stat.  The Twins have paid Paddack through the end of this season 12.525 million for his time with the Twins.  So far he has pitched 167.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA.  He has 142 Ks and 43 BBs.  His ERA is skewed by 3 or 4 bad starts.  He could throw another 100 innings this season.  Let’s just say he throws 60 with an ERA around the expected 3.75.  I would say 230 innings of 4.4 ERA is a solid value.  I feel pretty good with where we are now with his numbers vs his salary.  Overall Paddack has been what we paid him to be and possibly/ likely a little more.  

3 or 4 bad starts? 4.40 ERA good value? 0.5 WAR per season for a starter is not good. That's also not what the Twins paid for him. They also paid Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker.

[Brandon]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

LOL.... no.

I’ll go a step further.  Paddack has been boom bust he has 4 starts where he pitched 15 innings and gave up 27 earned runs.  Taking this starts out of the equation you get 58 earned runs in 152.67 innings which is a 3.42 ERA. Overall Paddack has been boom or bust.  Clearly you can find areas to pick apart.  But he has been worth his contract with the potential to add positive value.  I’m happy with that.  And I will agree that I’m not opposed to trading Paddack.  But even if we don’t he has been worth his contract.  

[Brandon]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Paddack is Kevin Correia circa 2013 is what the article is saying, and it's dead on point. While guys can stay lucky for the entire year, it's not normal to see it happen. Paddack getting results is great for the Twins, and he's gotten it done several times when the Twins felt absolutely desperate. I don't expect this to continue, but I'd love to swap his contract for something at the trade deadline if we can pull it off, and our depth allows for it.

Correa would make 12 million for a season today.  Which is what we paid Paddack which is that he is a fine value.  

[NYCTK]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

3 or 4 bad starts? 4.40 ERA good value? 0.5 WAR per season for a starter is not good. That's also not what the Twins paid for him. They also paid Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker.

Sure, they paid one year of a good reliever for two years for a basically equal caliber reliever and Rooker. But they paid a bad Brent Rooked that was DFAd twice after the trade. This idea that trading away Rooker was some huge foley is just revisionist history. 

[jorgenswest]

He is throwing strikes and keeping his pitch count down recently. He will need a good defense behind him and Buxton, Bader and Correa give him a pretty solid foundation when they are behind him. Seems like a worthwhile back end starter but not a playoff starter.

@Doctor Gast trade thought is reasonable. They might try to sell high before an injury or a string of poor outings. This is not the time of year where deals are made though. He needs another good six weeks.

I also wonder if he has been taking it up a level with runners in scoring position or once he gets to two outs. He only has 5 strikeouts over his last two starts but three have come with runners in scoring position and another was the third out. None have been to the hitter leading off an inning. Is that even a skill? I think Jack Morris would say it is a skill but I don’t know if there is any evidence of pitchers with that skill other than anecdotal. It certainly helps to keep pitch counts lower.

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I’ll go a step further.  Paddack has been boom bust he has 4 starts where he pitched 15 innings and gave up 27 earned runs.  Taking this starts out of the equation you get 58 earned runs in 152.67 innings which is a 3.42 ERA. Overall Paddack has been boom or bust.  Clearly you can find areas to pick apart.  But he has been worth his contract with the potential to add positive value.  I’m happy with that.  And I will agree that I’m not opposed to trading Paddack.  But even if we don’t he has been worth his contract.  

Every pitcher looks better if you ignore their worst 5 starts.

[GNess]

Isn't it possible that underlying metrics can skew the perception of the actual outcomes? Paddack could be having an outlier performance that will defy the analytics - that's certainly a possibility. 

Paddack is a veteran pitcher who through experience and actual competitive grit may be performing better at key moments which lead to nice results. Grit is an actual thing even if it can't be quantified.

I am going to appreciate his success as a 4th-5th starter to date.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a great opportunity for the Twins to "sell high" to a team that is desperate for SP (looking at you, Baltimore Orioles).  The Twins have higher ceiling guys like Matthews, Festa and Morris. than either Paddack and SWR.  

I'm not sure what the Twins could get but the Orioles are a mess right now and many of their prized prospects are either hurt or underperforming (Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad. Coby Mayo, Enrique Bradfield).  To get someone like Westburg the Twins might have to expand the deal and include Julien and or SWR.  

I just don't see a future for Julien with Cody Clemens, Brooks Lee, Payton Eales getting close to coming back and especially Luke Keaschall.  

Doc Gast...bust out your BBTV membership and see what the Twins could get with a trade offering SWR, Paddack and Julien.  

 

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is a great opportunity for the Twins to "sell high" to a team that is desperate for SP (looking at you, Baltimore Orioles). 

I think the Orioles may have thrown in the towel on 2025.

The Cubs will be looking for pitching. 

[TopGunn#22]

I should have mentioned the Cubs.  They've also been hit HARD with pitching injuries but are still contending.  They are probably a better match.  Good Point DJL44.

[Guest]

Do people really find this interesting? I sure don’t. I guess this is what baseball is distilled down to now. A bunch of charts and graphs and percentages. Ugh.

I prefer to just watch the games and my eyes and mind will determine how well I think a player is doing.

[Possumlad]

10 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

What a bunch of junk.  More ridiculous use of metrics mainly designed to make poor players look good and good or decent players putting up results to look bad.  Again baseball analytics making a nice simple fun game unnecessarily  complicated and cumbersome.  Over analyzing EVERYTHING!!  Ridiculous.

Sir or Madam, you are on a Twins baseball blog. Participation on this site and on each specific article is voluntary.

 

[DJL44]

44 minutes ago, KillerBrew said:

Do people really find this interesting? I sure don’t. I guess this is what baseball is distilled down to now. A bunch of charts and graphs and percentages. Ugh.

I prefer to just watch the games and my eyes and mind will determine how well I think a player is doing.

Both/and is better than either/or.

[mnfireman]

28 minutes ago, KillerBrew said:

Do people really find this interesting? I sure don’t. I guess this is what baseball is distilled down to now. A bunch of charts and graphs and percentages. Ugh.

I prefer to just watch the games and my eyes and mind will determine how well I think a player is doing.

To paraphrase Who's line is it anyway? - "The stats are made up and results don't matter..." Todays game is all about metrics: spin rate, arm angle, release point, xERA, FIP, xFIP, exit velocity, launch angle, etc... not results because the results are tainted if they don't align with the expected results.

A lot of current players keep getting chances because they meet or exceed certain metric standards but don't produce (the potential is there, it just has to be unlocked...) while many past All-Stars and HOFers wouldn't have been given chances because they didn't meet or exceed those same standards. Not every pitcher is a big strikeout guy and not every batter is a power hitter.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, GNess said:

Isn't it possible that underlying metrics can skew the perception of the actual outcomes? Paddack could be having an outlier performance that will defy the analytics - that's certainly a possibility. 

Paddack is a veteran pitcher who through experience and actual competitive grit may be performing better at key moments which lead to nice results. Grit is an actual thing even if it can't be quantified.

I am going to appreciate his success as a 4th-5th starter to date.

Using a single peripheral metric or even a couple can paint an inaccurate picture of potential regression because they all have flaws and outliers.

ERA is king over multiple full seasons in my opinion.
Paddack's ERA is 3.98 this year. It's 4.33 lifetime.

On to some of the metrics. FIP and xFIP ignore batted ball data treating all batted balls (except home runs) the same, and all ballparks the same. In general, it works pretty well at a glance because "most" pitchers will be fairly accurate to these metrics. FIP thinks ground balls are the same as line drives and xFIP thinks an infield pop up at Great American Ballpark (Cincinatti) is the same as warning track fly balls at Oracle (San Fran).
Paddack's FIP and xFIP are 4.64 and 4.96 while being at 4.09 and 4.02 lifetime.

Metrics like SIERA look at the type of batted ball like pop up, line drive, grounder or fly ball, and adjusts for the ballpark factor. xERA takes detailed batted ball information like exit velocities, launch angles, etc. into account, but ignores the park factors. SIERA treats a 120mph 500ft towering home run the same as a 80mph soft fly ball. xERA treats T-Mobile (Seattle) like Coors Field (Denver) for batted balls.
His SIERA and xERAs are 4.23 and 4.90. Lifetime 4.02 and 4.26, respectively.

Then there are metrics like strikeout percentage and walk percentage. If a pitcher strikes a ton of guys out and doesn't walk anybody, they're going to be expected to be dominant as there will rarely be guys on base to do damage. 16.1% and 8.8% for Paddack is terrible for K rate and pretty poor for walk rate. K/9 and BB/9 are nice to glance at because they're easier to understand, but if tons of guys are getting on base, it dilutes the /9 rates down.

Metrics like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA, K/9, BB/9, K%, BB%, Exit Velocity and BABIP are all designed to replicate the "eye test" for the most part. Except an "eye test" which is totally unbiased and observes every single walk, strike out or batted ball for a pitcher. It's like circumstantial evidence in a case. When all the evidence corroborates a story, the chances the evidence is wrong is lower.

Looking at metrics and using them as projection devices can be largely opinion based. Which metrics a person values or doesn't value, looking at the peripherals and adjusting the picture, adding the history of a player or changes to mechanics, etc to the equation. I guess... metrics turn people into professional scouts who can watch every single game, every pitch, every batted ball in a way.

To me, folks who intentionally mislead about the value or lack of value of metrics are basically pointing to Ben Revere hitting a home run as proof he's a power hitter.

There are also instances where the "eye test" can be argued against metrics.
@chpettit19 watched a game or two where Mickey Gasper was the catcher in AAA and believes Gasper just looked like he was doing a poor job. With the limited metrics available, it looks like Gasper is "adequate" behind the dish. @chpettit19's eye test might be a lot more valuable than the metrics I can see because those metrics are so limited in that case, but he's also strongly personally biased in my opinion. YMMV on how valuable his accounting of events based on his eye test is or how valuable the limited data is in supporting Gasper's credibility as a potential depth catcher.

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I guess... metrics turn people into professional scouts who can watch every single game, every pitch, every batted ball in a way.

It also acknowledges that no human can watch every pitch of every game. That's 40+ hours of major league baseball a day to digest. Add in up to 200 hours a day of minor league games, 1000 hours a day of NCAA baseball, etc.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

These metrics verify what my eyes have shown me. Trade Paddock for a young backup defensive catcher, as soon as Paddock has his next decent start.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Please remember we are talking about our SP4 or SP5, not SP1. Most teams would be very happy to see 6-7 IP and 4.00 ERA from that slot.

I can see a trade happen, but only if I squint my eyes really hard. Teams in pennant races do not trade effective SP when the return will be low