Why Twins Pitching Prospect Marco Raya’s Time As a Starter Must End

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Marco Raya’s ascent through the Twins’ system has been meteoric, but his 2025 performance has been equally dramatic in the opposite direction. After years of tightly controlled workloads, his 2025 performance has been disastrous. At this juncture, the Twins must acknowledge that Raya’s future isn’t in the rotation, and a shift to the bullpen is logical and overdue.

Rapid Promotions Mask Uncertainty
Since being drafted in 2020, Raya’s six-pitch arsenal has made him one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects. However, his smaller frame (6-foot-1, 170 lb.) made the Twins systematically capped his outings. Most starts from 2022–2023 were five innings or fewer, followed by a cautious bump to five innings in select late-2024 outings. This conservative approach stemmed from Raya’s 2021 shoulder strain, during which Twins development staff prioritized long-term health over short-term success. The result was no significant setbacks but also no true test of his stamina against lineups multiple times.

Paradoxically, while Raya’s pitch counts were restrained, his ascent through the minors was swift. After dominating High-A Cedar Rapids, he graduated to Double-A Wichita mid-2023, and later in 2024 made a brief Triple-A cameo before his contract was added to the 40-man roster in November. This rapid promotion was a clear signal of the Twins’ belief in his high ceiling. Yet that rapid climb never fully answered whether his repertoire could maintain bite deeper into games or if his body could adapt to extended starts.

2024: The Harbinger of Confidence
Despite workload caps, Raya’s 2024 numbers hinted at genuine promise. Across 97 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 4.05 ERA, a 24.6% strikeout rate, and a 10.5% walk rate. Those metrics underscored his swing-and-miss stuff, particularly his plus mid-80s slider. His four-seam fastball regularly registered in the mid-90s, touching 97 mph, and both ride and sink variants averaged over 94 mph, offering a solid base for continued growth.

Encouraged by that profile, the Twins gradually loosened the leash late in 2024, allowing Raya to eclipse five innings in five of his last seven starts. This shift represented a turning point: the organization was signaling readiness to test him as a bona fide starter, armed with data suggesting his arsenal could play beyond limited stints. It was a positive end to the season for a player who was only 21-years old. 

2025: A Statistical Implosion
In his first seven outings of 2025, Raya has been charged with 21 earned runs in 15 2/3  innings, translating to a 12.06 ERA which is an unsustainable level for any rotation hopeful. His walk tally stands at 18, more free passes than strikeouts (17), driving his walk-rate to 19.4% compared to 10.5% last year. Meanwhile, his K-rate has cratered by 6.3 percentage points, an alarming sign that his once-electric slider and fastball aren’t missing bats like they used to.

Beyond the walks and missed bats, opponents are punishing Raya’s mistakes. Through seven games, batters are hitting .431/.533/.556 with a 1.088 OPS that ranks among the worst marks for any starter at any level this season. When a pitcher is yielding more walks than strikeouts and allowing hits at a near-45% clip. There may be some small sample size caveats, but he’s shown few positive signs in any outing. 

Why Relief Is the Only Viable Path
1. Simplifying the Arsenal
Raya’s six-pitch mix has allowed him to be successful in the past, but his command inconsistencies in 2025 suggest he’s better suited to focusing on a two- or three-pitch repertoire out of the bullpen. In shorter outings, he can lean on his four-seam fastball (already touching the upper 90s) and his plus slider, the latter being the pitch that has been his best in the past. Concentrating on his best offerings could unlock more downhill arm speed and sharpen the break of his secondary pitches.

2. The Bulldozer Role
In relief, Raya’s heater could tick upward, potentially hitting the upper 90s, a velocity boost that would add an extra dimension to his profile. The slider, which graded as a plus pitch in 2024, would morph into a true weapon if thrown with the fire and conviction only shorter stints can provide. Given his current struggles to navigate batting order turns, a “bulldozer” relief role (one inning of max-effort, swing-and-miss stuff) feels tailor-made.

Raya’s journey has been marked by tantalizing highs and cautious development, but the 2025 results leave little doubt: his path to MLB impact must diverge from the rotation. The Twins owe it to one of their top prospects to realign expectations and harness his best qualities in the bullpen. By embracing a relief role, Raya can rebuild confidence, increase velocity, and reestablish his slider as an elite offering. For a pitcher whose future has long been in question, this change is a strategic pivot toward realizing his undeniable upside.

Is it time to move Raya to the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[mikelink45]

Could it be that we just overestimated the potential?  I do not see anything here that would indicate that he would be good in the Pen.  we have some better options for the pen.  

The other question is - does he have something bothering him - physical or personal?

[jjswol]

Sounds like good trade material to me.

 

[Parfigliano]

If they intend to keep him yes to a bullpen move.  He doesn't have the arm to go 5 MLB innings now and seems he never did.

[LambchoP]

Doesn't seem like he ever had the stamina to start. Simplify the pitch mix, keep his best 3 or 4 pitches and try him in 1-2 inning relief outings. Maybe he can turn things around. Him, Cory Lewis and Morris have been a bit of a disappointment so far this year. Looks like Adams is best suited for a call up to the pen when we need an arm. Macgaghen has also pitched really well in St Paul.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm all for Raja in the BP.

[Linus]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Could it be that we just overestimated the potential?  I do not see anything here that would indicate that he would be good in the Pen.  we have some better options for the pen.  

The other question is - does he have something bothering him - physical or personal?

There is potential there but I think you are correct about fans overestimating him. He’s never been good enough that you would say certain big leaguer. 

[D.C Twins]

It's been time for over a year and many of us at TD have advocated for this for a long time

[jorgenswest]

I think the Twins use all of their minor league pitchers that they envision with big league potential in a starter in the minors.

Sands, Funderburk, Jax, Duran, Varland and Alcalá were all minor league starters the year prior to their major league debut. So we’re Winder, Headrick, Henriquez and Balazovic.The routine of a starter role in the minor leagues is much more conducive to building innings. It leads to a regular routine to work on pitches in the off days. It isn’t about developing a pitcher into a starter role or relief role as much as it is about developing an arm. It is only as they get close to the majors that they may switch roles like Funderburk did in 2023 before arriving in the majors later that year. That 2023 Twins team had few left handed relief options. Adams is working from the pen for the first time this year though his routine is that of a starter where he has had at least 4 days rest between each appearance. His relief appearances appear scheduled. He is on the 40 and the Twins may envision that he will be needed from the pen this year.

Has anyone arrived in the majors as a pitcher that wasn’t predominantly a minor leagues starter? Moran and Stashak might be the best examples. Both joined the organization prior to Falvey in 2015. Jovani Moran came through the system as a reliever. Cody Stashak changed from starting to relief in AA.

I think they believe the best way to develop Raya’s ability to pitch is in the routine of a starter role. Until he gets close he may stay in that role even if they envision him in a relief role in the majors.

[Dantheman]

He’s got the stuff, but not being able to throw any of it for strikes and being behind hitters and being at the level he’s at all they have to do is be patient and wait for a certain pitch they want. Which isn’t a recipe for success and that’s what we are seeing right now from him. I think a demotion at this point would be better for his development to face lesser competition and get some confidence back on the mound and work on what he needs to work on. Personally raya isn’t a top 10 prospect and I’d put him closer to high teens close to 20 spot in the org. 

[jkcarew]

No. I think they should have him go 3-4 innings every 7 days (or is it every 9 days) for another couple of years. At least.

50 pitches in 2 inning for Marco Raya but 4 strikeouts and 9 whiffs. Efficiency remains a struggle but the stuff is sooo nasty.

Ugh. More fake social media news to create false narratives and perpetuate unrealistic expectations. Raya's actual K% is 18. Far from extraordinary. In fact, well below league average. But when you consistently face 5, 6, 7+ batters each inning, and run deep counts...you might get one, even two K's.

[bean5302]

Raya was doing well in 5-6 inning appearances last year, but that was in AA, and he wasn't actually dominant, just good. He's now in AAA and burning MLB options on the 40 man. The stuff that was working in AA has seemingly hit a wall versus more seasoned hitters. Raya's last outing featured non-competitive pitching with him frequently missing far outside the zone, sometimes failing to get a pitch anywhere near a strike 80%+ of the time. Regardless of how good a pitcher's stuff is, even AAA hitters aren't going to swing at stuff a foot out of the zone. Six pitches is great, if a guy can throw them. Raya can't hit the strike zone with any regularity this year.

Correlation is not causation. Starters are far more valuable than relievers and it's rare for a team to draft a "relief pitcher" because there is nothing to fall back on if things don't pan out. Starters who get injured or can't handle the workload or don't have the stuff to succeed at higher levels move into the bullpen. Starting is harder on pitchers and more likely to lead to injuries and breakdown.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I think the Twins use all of their minor league pitchers that they envision with big league potential in a starter in the minors.

Sands, Funderburk, Jax, Duran, Varland and Alcalá were all minor league starters the year prior to their major league debut. So we’re Winder, Headrick, Henriquez and Balazovic.The routine of a starter role in the minor leagues is much more conducive to building innings. It leads to a regular routine to work on pitches in the off days. It isn’t about developing a pitcher into a starter role or relief role as much as it is about developing an arm. It is only as they get close to the majors that they may switch roles like Funderburk did in 2023 before arriving in the majors later that year. That 2023 Twins team had few left handed relief options. Adams is working from the pen for the first time this year though his routine is that of a starter where he has had at least 4 days rest between each appearance. His relief appearances appear scheduled. He is on the 40 and the Twins may envision that he will be needed from the pen this year.

Has anyone arrived in the majors as a pitcher that wasn’t predominantly a minor leagues starter? Moran and Stashak might be the best examples. Both joined the organization prior to Falvey in 2015. Jovani Moran came through the system as a reliever. Cody Stashak changed from starting to relief in AA.

I think they believe the best way to develop Raya’s ability to pitch is in the routine of a starter role. Until he gets close he may stay in that role even if they envision him in a relief role in the majors.

A quality post, no doubt. Just a question of procedure. How does a post become a green highlighted, top of the post page post? I am not disagreeing, just curious?????  Who is allowed to place a post as "recommended"?

[DJL44]

Will moving to the bullpen help him with location? If he can't throw strikes he won't make it anywhere.

[tony&rodney]

Timing. Raya with 4 innings of no hit, no runs, no walks, 7 strikeouts on 49 pitches today versus a very good hitting Norwalk club. Timing is everything.

[ashbury]

50 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Timing. Raya with 4 innings of no hit, no runs, no walks, 7 strikeouts on 49 pitches today versus a very good hitting Norwalk club. Timing is everything.

Seems like a day for the manager to have thrown caution and the computer printout to the wind after the fourth inning, and let this prospect go nuts and toss 52 or even 53 pitches.

[Fatbat]

The kid has great stuff. Give him some time because he will have a very nice MLB career. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

The kid is still just 21 years old. I’m not moving him to the one just yet. I’d make sure there isn’t something physically or mentally wrong with him first. Is there something mechanical that has changed? Or is it the step up in competition? Let him play out the season as a starter and revisit the discussion in the offseason.

[twinstalker]

As long as you all keep him as the number 7 ranked prospect. 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Seems like a day for the manager to have thrown caution and the computer printout to the wind after the fourth inning, and let this prospect go nuts and toss 52 or even 53 pitches.

All the “baseball guys” are stupid………should just hire random fans to develop and manage teams!

He’s a skinny 22 year old with a handful of guys between him and any chance in the Twin’s rotation. He’ll be a starter until the middle of ‘26 at a minimum just due to his age…….no reason not to be. If they get desperate for a 40-man Roster spot they’ll trade him or waive w/o feeling bad since getting to that point would be from non- performance.

The next 12 months should help sort what his best 3-4 pitches may be and which he can command. 6 pitch mix and walking too many guys sure seem to be connected. No revelation here, execution and command are his roadblock - not stamina.

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The next 12 months should help sort what his best 3-4 pitches may be and which he can command. 6 pitch mix and walking too many guys sure seem to be connected. No revelation here, execution and command are his roadblock - not stamina.

We actually have no idea if stamina is a roadblock. They've never tried to see if he can consistently pitch 5-6 innings as a starter. This makes me believe they've never been developing him as a starting pitcher, but using a starter's routine to get him innings.

Good to see him find the strike zone last night.

[Otaknam]

Raya may not have the typical starter  build. But not all successful starters have the preferred physical characteristics, 6’4”/215 lbs, Sonny Gray being an obvious example. But I wonder about the feasibility of a six pitch mix, unless they are all at least average, with at least two pitches being above average. This may be is a make or break year for Raya as a starter, since the team is so cautious with his pitch load. At some point Raya needs to make progress as a starter and earn the right to pitch deeper into games. Seems like this is the year to figure that out. 

[tony&rodney]

Raya is 22 years old and in his first look at AAA. He is fine. No worries.

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Raya is 22 years old and in his first look at AAA. He is fine. No worries.

Why is he fine?  He's never been fine before.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Why is he fine?  He's never been fine before.

Did you watch him pitch?

[DocBauer]

At 22yo and in AAA I wouldn't move him at this time. Most 22yo arms are at A and AA ball. And maybe that's where he should be. But considering age and a solid 2024 that ended on some high notes, i wouldn't move him.

Maybe late in this season? Maybe next year as a 23yo if we don't see enough improvement the year? But not now.

[DJL44]

There's an alarming split I noticed for this season

Bases Empty: .303/.410/.333 740 OPS

Runners On: .412/.508/.569 1076 OPS

That suggests he can't pitch out of the stretch effectively. Last season he was more effective with runners on than with the bases empty.

[TopGunn#22]

With Raya just 21-22 years old, I wouldn't trade him yet.  And his 2025 at St. Paul hasn't enhanced his value (unlike SWR's 2024 and Paddack's recent outings).

I think the Twins should trim 2 of his pitches and have him concentrate on his best 4.  Especially if he's not locating/controlling his vast repertoire.  Starting pitchers don't need SIX pitches.  

It may be that the BP is in his future.  But I wouldn't want to make that move until 2025 is over (or nearly over).  If he starts to get back on track with a 4 pitch mix, he could be a candidate for a 2-inning BP role if the Twins have a need in August or September.  Get him a taste of MLB at 2025 seasons end out of the BP and then reassess for 2026 rotation or BP.