There's Real Reason to Worry About Jhoan Durán

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins' young closer has had a disappointing spring, in several regards. It’s easy to shrug off spring training stats, but harder to do so when they're underpinned by troubling indicators.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Jhoan Durán suffered an oblique injury last spring, which delayed his season and prevented him from being his typically dominant self for most of 2024. His velocity never returned to its peak, and while his numbers remained solid, he wasn’t the anchor of the Twins bullpen, as we had grown accustomed to him being. His spring training performance thus far isn’t giving many signs that he’s set to return to his former dominance. In fact, it might be urging us to expect the exact opposite.

Duran was a good pitcher in 2024 in terms of results. However, he lost a tick over his fastball, and for the first time in his career, there were occasions where it appeared opposing hitters could ambush him. His strikeout rate was below 30%, after being above 32% in his first two seasons. His overall whiff rate was the worst of his career at a still-solid 32.9%, despite his chase rate dropping below 30%.

A few percentage points here and there are negligible, but there’s likely a cliff at some point as these peripherals trend down. Hitters weren’t as fooled by Durán’s stuff as they had been in his first two seasons, and it coincided with a notable dropoff in velocity. The Twins would be fine with the 2024 version of Durán, but any further loss of his dominance would be worrisome, making his spring performance all the more notable.

Duran’s whiff rates are at an all-time low in spring training, and not by a matter of a few percentage points. His velocity hasn’t rebounded, and his ability to get swings and misses isn’t just lower than usual; it’s been flat-out bad. His spring whiff rate of 11.8% puts him below any pitcher with at least 200 batters faced in 2024, and it’s less than half of his 2024 spring whiff rates, when he turned out to be injured.

While it cannot be emphasized enough that spring stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, this degree of dropoff is beyond worrisome. Even if he’s been “working on things” during games that don’t matter, Durán has shown no signs of his dominant self at any point, and Opening Day is right around the corner. Pablo López has also gotten hit hard this spring, which can be attributed to that vague notion of working on stuff and caring little for results, but his velocity has also ramped up along the way as he approaches the regular season.

Sometimes, spring training data does matter. It mattered for Matt Wallner last season, when his strikeouts carried over into the regular season and ultimately landed him in St. Paul. It mattered for Durán himself, when his decline in velocity and whiff rate turned out to be the result of an injury. When the struggles are this significant, especially for a reliever who declined in several areas last season, it’s worth wondering whether there are significant problems ahead.

Perhaps there’s a switch flipped when Opening Day arrives for Durán, but in each previous season of his career, he had rounded into form by now. Even if he’s toying around with new approaches or dialing back his velocity on purpose, it must be notable to see such a lack of dominance from a reliever who had previously been one of the most feared in baseball. While most spring training performances don’t correlate with the regular season, Durán may be in trouble in 2025 if any portion of it does.

Durán has much more going on than surface-level struggles in meaningless spring training games. His last outing was the worst of the spring, and his entire body of work looks nothing like the dominant reliever the Twins needed him to be. Is it time to worry?

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[LambchoP]

I think Duran will be just fine this year if he stays healthy. I've seen him hitting 101 and I think even 102 once or twice this spring. Didn't we just get an article last week titled "5 reasons to trust Johan Duran"?

[chpettit19]

"His overall whiff rate was the worst of his career at a still-solid 32.9%." A little misleading here, aren't we? "Still-solid?" 32.9% was the 93rd percentile for whiff rate in baseball last year. That's a little more than "solid." The 75th percentile is "solid." The 93rd percentile is quite a bit better than "solid."

Duran was at 99.7 that day that Nick said he didn't "touch" 100. He "touched" it, he just didn't break it. Again, what are we talking about? Duran can't get guys out throwing 100 instead of 102?

If Duran is hurt, that's very much a problem. Otherwise, I'm not so worried. He's broke 100 multiple times this spring. 100 with a hammer curve is plenty to get guys out. Pitch sequencing and possibly tipping pitches has always been my concern with Duran. 

There are a whole lot of teams that'd be happy to have this "concerning, decline season" from a guy in their pen:

My goodness. That fastball velo of just 100.5 instead of 102 was good enough for just the 100th percentile.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Barry Bonds said (paraphrasing) it didn't matter how fast the pitcher threw. The catcher would catch it with his glove, he would "catch" it with his bat. Throwing vs pitching.

Duran was good, not great, last year. If the Twins are seeing a less effective pitcher with bad trending for no real reason, they should trade him today while his value is still high.  Better a year too early than a year too late.

[Patzky]

The second string defense makes the plays against Detroit and it's a different stat line.

[Whitey333]

Duran was pretty good last year.  But he definitely wasn't great.  But losing 9 games as a "closer"  isn't great or shutdown.  Maybe too much concern about his velocity idk.  Major league hitters can hit a 100 mph fastball today especially if it doesn't have much movement or is center cut.  We do need him to be better this year if we are to be playoff contenders.

[tony&rodney]

Jhoan Duran is a really good valuable late inning relief pitcher.

Really believed that Duran could have been packaged with one or two others to bring back a noteworthy player. Apparently I was wrong.

[Cory Engelhardt]

43 minutes ago, Patzky said:

The second string defense makes the plays against Detroit and it's a different stat line.

This and how fast the stadium gun is reading are two things I'd need to know about before jumping to any conclusions.

But it would be nice to know for sure he can rebound a bit from 2024.

[Patzky]

21 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This and how fast the stadium gun is reading are two things I'd need to know about before jumping to any conclusions.

But it would be nice to know for sure he can rebound a bit from 2024.

The gun had Ober throwing 88 mph heat too.. effectively!

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

"His overall whiff rate was the worst of his career at a still-solid 32.9%." A little misleading here, aren't we? "Still-solid?" 32.9% was the 93rd percentile for whiff rate in baseball last year. That's a little more than "solid." The 75th percentile is "solid." The 93rd percentile is quite a bit better than "solid."

Duran was at 99.7 that day that Nick said he didn't "touch" 100. He "touched" it, he just didn't break it. Again, what are we talking about? Duran can't get guys out throwing 100 instead of 102?

If Duran is hurt, that's very much a problem. Otherwise, I'm not so worried. He's broke 100 multiple times this spring. 100 with a hammer curve is plenty to get guys out. Pitch sequencing and possibly tipping pitches has always been my concern with Duran. 

There are a whole lot of teams that'd be happy to have this "concerning, decline season" from a guy in their pen:

My goodness. That fastball velo of just 100.5 instead of 102 was good enough for just the 100th percentile.

I'm a pretty firm believer that fastball characteristics matter. Duran's fastball is different than Joe Ryan's, whose 95 has more ride and therefore looks faster than the radar gun picks up on. Depending on the shape, extension, angle etc., there's a breaking point for every pitchers fastball where it's effectiveness drops off, which affects their whole repertoire. Just because one pitcher saw that drop off at 93 mph doesn't mean another will. It's absolutely possible and I'd argue likely that Duran can be less effective at 100 than 102. 

It's also valuable to identify concerning trends before they bubble over into actual performance. Statcast percentiles may be more indicative than just looking at a pitchers ERA, but things like chase rate also tell the story of how deceptive a pitcher is and how opposing hitters see them. Duran had a decline in that in 2024 despite his still solid season as I pointed out, but the bottom has fallen out this spring. 

If anyone wants to shrug off the slight decline he showed last year or the red flags he's shown this spring, I've got no issue with that. I just find it concerning and find it worth keeping a close eye on.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

The second string defense makes the plays against Detroit and it's a different stat line.

It's not about his final stat line, it's about the numbers under the hood that lead to the stat line. In both regards, Duran has not had a good spring. I'm sure the answer to this is "spring doesn't matter", which is fine if you feel that way, but I personally think at least some things do actually matter in the spring, especially when the season is right around the corner.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I'm a pretty firm believer that fastball characteristics matter. Duran's fastball is different than Joe Ryan's, whose 95 has more ride and therefore looks faster than the radar gun picks up on. Depending on the shape, extension, angle etc., there's a breaking point for every pitchers fastball where it's effectiveness drops off, which affects their whole repertoire. Just because one pitcher saw that drop off at 93 mph doesn't mean another will. It's absolutely possible and I'd argue likely that Duran can be less effective at 100 than 102. 

It's also valuable to identify concerning trends before they bubble over into actual performance. Statcast percentiles may be more indicative than just looking at a pitchers ERA, but things like chase rate also tell the story of how deceptive a pitcher is and how opposing hitters see them. Duran had a decline in that in 2024 despite his still solid season as I pointed out, but the bottom has fallen out this spring. 

If anyone wants to shrug off the slight decline he showed last year or the red flags he's shown this spring, I've got no issue with that. I just find it concerning and find it worth keeping a close eye on.

Fastball shape absolutely matters. But he hasn't always thrown 102. Including in his dominant rookie season. His fastball velo in 2022 was 100.8. Last year it was 100.5. His whiff rate in 2022 was 34.7. 94th percentile. Last year was 32.9. 93rd percentile. He's been over 100 MPH multiple times this spring. His K rate in 2022 was higher than in 2023 even though he wasn't throwing as hard. He didn't have to throw 102 in 2022 or 2024 to be effective so why should we believe he has to do it in 2025?

How many swings has he had against him this spring to generate that 11.8% whiff rate? How many of them came in the game Tuesday? 

I agree, teams should be looking for trends and trying to decipher what they mean. I mentioned pitch sequencing and tipping specifically because of his chase rate. If he's hurt that's a massive concern. What is your concern if he isn't hurt? The league "figured him out?" They have him solved at 100.1 vs 100.5 to the tune of a 20% difference in whiff%? 10% difference in whiff%? 

That's why I point out the misleading statement of "still-solid 32.9% whiff rate." That's the 93rd percentile. And he was throwing 100, not 102 last year. He was "touching" 100 on Tuesday. He's been over 100 multiple times already this spring. So, he's in the same range he's been in for 2 out of 3 years in his career where his whiff% was in the 93rd and 94th percentiles. I'm not so concerned about the crazy small sample size producing a 11.8 whiff rate at this point, no. 

[Cody Pirkl]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fastball shape absolutely matters. But he hasn't always thrown 102. Including in his dominant rookie season. His fastball velo in 2022 was 100.8. Last year it was 100.5. His whiff rate in 2022 was 34.7. 94th percentile. Last year was 32.9. 93rd percentile. He's been over 100 MPH multiple times this spring. His K rate in 2022 was higher than in 2023 even though he wasn't throwing as hard. He didn't have to throw 102 in 2022 or 2024 to be effective so why should we believe he has to do it in 2025?

How many swings has he had against him this spring to generate that 11.8% whiff rate? How many of them came in the game Tuesday? 

I agree, teams should be looking for trends and trying to decipher what they mean. I mentioned pitch sequencing and tipping specifically because of his chase rate. If he's hurt that's a massive concern. What is your concern if he isn't hurt? The league "figured him out?" They have him solved at 100.1 vs 100.5 to the tune of a 20% difference in whiff%? 10% difference in whiff%? 

That's why I point out the misleading statement of "still-solid 32.9% whiff rate." That's the 93rd percentile. And he was throwing 100, not 102 last year. He was "touching" 100 on Tuesday. He's been over 100 multiple times already this spring. So, he's in the same range he's been in for 2 out of 3 years in his career where his whiff% was in the 93rd and 94th percentiles. I'm not so concerned about the crazy small sample size producing a 11.8 whiff rate at this point, no. 

There's any number of arguments one could come up with regarding his first two seasons in which he was one of the top 2 or 3 relievers in baseball. There was no scouting report or MLB data to gameplay with in his rookie season for example.

And I get the argument that all of spring is a small sample, but even without his last outing in which he didn't draw a single whiff, his whiff rates this spring would have been bad instead of disastrous as they are now. 

And yes, as the league sees him more and compiles more data, they're better able to prepare. He throws a pretty straight fastball that doesn't have much for standout characteristics aside from the velocity. For all we know, it could become very hittable if it drops below 100 mph. He wouldn't be the first. 

And I'm glad you're not concerned, I hope you're right. Some people prefer to ignore absolutely everything about spring training performance. I think there are still indicators that deserve attention.

[bean5302]

I agree with @chpettit19. Duran's velocity is elite at 100mph or 102mph. Last year looked like it was luck fueled as his FIP was better than his mega velo 2023.
2022 = 100.9, 2.52 FIP
2023 = 101.8, 3.21 FIP
2024 = 100.4, 2.85 FIP <-- Duran can't throw hard anymore, he's cooked, what's wrong????

Duran has pitched 6.1 innings this year in spring training. He's publicly stated he's not trying to throw max velo right now.

3/12 vs. Boston. 21.4% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 2Ks.
3/15 vs. Atlanta. 18.2% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 0Ks.
3/18 vs. Detroit. 0.0% swinging strike rate. 0.1 IP, 0Ks, 3R 2ER. <--- His swinging strike rate in ST is bad!
The last batter fouled off 6 pitches and saw 11 of the 24 pitches Duran threw. Fastball velo ranged from 98.1mph to 99.7mph.

 

[Cody Pirkl]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I agree with @chpettit19. Duran's velocity is elite at 100mph or 102mph. Last year looked like it was luck fueled as his FIP was better than his mega velo 2023.
2022 = 100.9, 2.52 FIP
2023 = 101.8, 3.21 FIP
2024 = 100.4, 2.85 FIP <-- Duran can't throw hard anymore, he's cooked, what's wrong????

Duran has pitched 6.1 innings this year in spring training. He's publicly stated he's not trying to throw max velo right now.

3/12 vs. Boston. 21.4% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 2Ks.
3/15 vs. Atlanta. 18.2% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 0Ks.
3/18 vs. Detroit. 0.0% swinging strike rate. 0.1 IP, 0Ks, 3R 2ER. <--- His swinging strike rate in ST is bad!
The last batter fouled off 6 pitches and saw 11 of the 24 pitches Duran threw. Fastball velo ranged from 98.1mph to 99.7mph.

 

For what it's worth, his swinging strike rate last spring was 25% when he had an oblique injury. While his last outing dragged it down, those first two outings you listed were also quite bad.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

There's any number of arguments one could come up with regarding his first two seasons in which he was one of the top 2 or 3 relievers in baseball. There was no scouting report or MLB data to gameplay with in his rookie season for example.

And I get the argument that all of spring is a small sample, but even without his last outing in which he didn't draw a single whiff, his whiff rates this spring would have been bad instead of disastrous as they are now. 

And yes, as the league sees him more and compiles more data, they're better able to prepare. He throws a pretty straight fastball that doesn't have much for standout characteristics aside from the velocity. For all we know, it could become very hittable if it drops below 100 mph. He wouldn't be the first. 

And I'm glad you're not concerned, I hope you're right. Some people prefer to ignore absolutely everything about spring training performance. I think there are still indicators that deserve attention.

My point is that his 3rd season wasn't actually meaningfully different than his first 2. Are the 3 seasons below in order or not? Can you tell without looking super closely at certain numbers that you know? My point is that Duran didn't significantly change last year. That's why I pointed out the nonsense of you calling 32.9% "still-solid" as if it wasn't actually great. He was still elite last year. He didn't suddenly start getting hit hard. He was still striking people out. Yes, his ERA ballooned, but not to 5 or 7 or anything crazy. The point is that he was still great. Especially in the 9th where his ERA was 2.17 and he had a .207/.280/.311/.591 line against.

[bean5302]

13 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

For what it's worth, his swinging strike rate last spring was 25% when he had an oblique injury. While his last outing dragged it down, those first two outings you listed were also quite bad.

@Cody Pirkl swinging strike rates not whiff rate.

18.1-21.4% is ultra elite. Last year, only 7 of 254 relievers with 30+ innings managed a swinging strike rate of 18.0% or higher. None was over Josh Hader's 20.5%.
 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Last season, I just presumed he wasn't ever fully healthy and maybe I'm not remembering it correctly, but I felt like a few of his rougher performances were at least partly the result of shoddy defense. 

His performance this spring might mean nothing in the grand scheme of things - but its nonetheless disappointing and concerning.

[Trov]

The lack of velo late in spring will be the biggest concern.  It is possible he is trying to ramp up slower this year, but if his velo is down that will be a big problem down the road for him. 

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

My point is that his 3rd season wasn't actually meaningfully different than his first 2. Are the 3 seasons below in order or not? Can you tell without looking super closely at certain numbers that you know? My point is that Duran didn't significantly change last year. That's why I pointed out the nonsense of you calling 32.9% "still-solid" as if it wasn't actually great. He was still elite last year. He didn't suddenly start getting hit hard. He was still striking people out. Yes, his ERA ballooned, but not to 5 or 7 or anything crazy. The point is that he was still great. Especially in the 9th where his ERA was 2.17 and he had a .207/.280/.311/.591 line against.

I feel like you're interpreting my opinion as 2024 being some kind of disaster for him when that's not the case whatsoever. He lost a full tick on his fastball and the pitch had a negative run value. There were some weird potential luck related things with it, but it also lost two inches of vertical movement.

His WPA was the worst of his career and he had more occasions of looking vulnerable than his first two seasons combined, and there are statistics that show why aside from his Savant percentiles. That's a problem when one pitcher makes up such a significant portion of the bullpens projected value. To see him struggle in ways beyond ERA this spring worries me personally. They can only afford so much of a decline.

[Cody Pirkl]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

@Cody Pirkl swinging strike rates not whiff rate.

18.1-21.4% is ultra elite. Last year, only 7 of 254 relievers with 30+ innings managed a swinging strike rate of 18.0% or higher. None was over Josh Hader's 20.5%.
 

That's totally my bad, I've had my mind on whiffs for most of this conversation and those two stats always make my head spin.

Swinging strike rate is valuable, and I can't check it right this moment, but I imagine he wasn't exactly cruising along in that department before his last outing either. And swinging strike rate is another metric he declined in in 2024.

I have no problem with anyone defense more to swinging strike rate as an indicator because generally I'm in that same camp. I will say CSW is typically my favorite, and that's way down at 23% this spring too. Paired with the overall lack of swing and miss so far, it's something I'll be watching very closely when the season starts.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I feel like you're interpreting my opinion as 2024 being some kind of disaster for him when that's not the case whatsoever. He lost a full tick on his fastball and the pitch had a negative run value. There were some weird potential luck related things with it, but it also lost two inches of vertical movement.

His WPA was the worst of his career and he had more occasions of looking vulnerable than his first two seasons combined, and there are statistics that show why aside from his Savant percentiles. That's a problem when one pitcher makes up such a significant portion of the bullpens projected value. To see him struggle in ways beyond ERA this spring worries me personally. They can only afford so much of a decline.

I'm not interpreting it that way. I'm saying there wasn't a meaningful difference. I'm saying his performance in 2024 was essentially the same as it was in 2023 which was essentially the same as it was in 2022. You can find stats to worry about if you want to (I'm saying that's what you're doing) and stats that say there's nothing to worry about (that's what I'm doing to counter your article and comments).

His fastball had the best whiff% of his career last year (36.1% vs 35.7 in 2023 and 25.8 in 2022), best K% (33.7% vs 30.2% in 2023 and 25.5 in 2022), best put away% (26.4% vs 20 in 2023 and 18.9 in 2022), tied for best hard hit% (33.3% vs 40.7 in 2023 and 33.3 in 2022), best z-contact% (71.6% vs 73.8 in 2023 and 79.1% in 2022). That's a lot of "bests" for a fastball that we need to worry about.

His fastball lost 2 inches of vertical movement and gained 1.5 inches of horizontal movement while having the best active spin % of his career.

WPA is a counting stat. He threw more innings in 2023. His WPA/Inning pitched in 2023 was .032. In 2024 it was .028. He had 34 shutdown appearances in 2024 vs only 27 in 2023 and 34 in 2022. He had 58 appearances in 2024 vs 59 in 2023 and 57 in 2022. His "clutch" rating in 2023 was negative, it was positive in 2024. 

Sure, you can find things to worry about with Duran if you want. But I don't see the overall numbers saying it. The "full tick" he lost on his fastball in 2024 was back to what it was in 2022 when he was the most dominant he's ever been. He was still the hardest throwing player in all of baseball last year even at "just" 100.5.

[twinstalker]

 

Quote

Jhoan Durán suffered an oblique injury last spring, which delayed his season and prevented him from being his typically dominant self for most of 2024. 

This isn't true at all.  Well, the part about delaying his season probably is, but the other part isn't.  It's possible.  That's all.  And really, *it's possible that his oblique, combined with unknown or undetermined factors prevented his previous dominance.*  That's probably a true statement, give the word "possible."  I could argue, though, that the oblique had no effect whatsoever and quantify that.

Your statement, though, is definitive.  So if his velocity is down still this year to at least some extent, do we blame it on last year's oblique again?

[Patzky]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I agree with @chpettit19. Duran's velocity is elite at 100mph or 102mph. Last year looked like it was luck fueled as his FIP was better than his mega velo 2023.
2022 = 100.9, 2.52 FIP
2023 = 101.8, 3.21 FIP
2024 = 100.4, 2.85 FIP <-- Duran can't throw hard anymore, he's cooked, what's wrong????

Duran has pitched 6.1 innings this year in spring training. He's publicly stated he's not trying to throw max velo right now.

3/12 vs. Boston. 21.4% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 2Ks.
3/15 vs. Atlanta. 18.2% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 0Ks.
3/18 vs. Detroit. 0.0% swinging strike rate. 0.1 IP, 0Ks, 3R 2ER. <--- His swinging strike rate in ST is bad!
The last batter fouled off 6 pitches and saw 11 of the 24 pitches Duran threw. Fastball velo ranged from 98.1mph to 99.7mph.

 

The Tigers have seen a lot of Duran over the past few season. It's not a surprise they have a great scouting report on him, perhaps better than Boston or Atlanta.

[DocBauer]

I'm going to be the proverbial blogger sacrificial lamb here.

As smart as I am, and as smart as I pretend to be, I'm just NOT the STAT HEAD that I'm seeing presented here. BUT, I can follow the numbers to some degree. May i make a few simple comments?

1] Reliever numbers are, and always have been, volcanic in nature. A couple bad games, bad pitches thrown, bad luck, can skew a RP's numbers due to limited IP.

2] Very few human beings can throw a baseball consistently at 100MPH, give or take.

3] Pure velocity isn't everything and you need other quality pitches. Duran has that. In fact, his secondary pitches are probably better than his FB. 

4] The BABIP against Duruan in 2024 would seem to be "unlucky" based on normal numbers.

5] Duran has also been working on a 4th pitch, a 2 seamer I believe. He's looking for any edge he can find.

ALL OF THIS tells me there isn't a worry about Duran UNTIL we see an actual worry.

Honestly, other than the bionic Chapman, I've NEVER seen a real ML pitcher consistently throw 100 MPH other than Duran. Anyone with control that is. The Twins have 2 AAA arms that could do that, with no idea where the ball is going.

It's a very strange discussion. If Duran only repeats what he did in 2024, he's an excellent pen arm. But we're worried that he's suddenly lost something when the season hasn't even begun? 

I'll worry in a month or so when the season starts, the lights are on, and games matter. 

[h2oface]

Cody, Cody. 

Who are you gonna believe?

 

[dxpavelka]

All that and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee.  Not the good kind but the crappy kind you get for a quarter.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"His overall whiff rate was the worst of his career at a still-solid 32.9%." A little misleading here, aren't we? "Still-solid?" 32.9% was the 93rd percentile for whiff rate in baseball last year. That's a little more than "solid." The 75th percentile is "solid." The 93rd percentile is quite a bit better than "solid."

Duran was at 99.7 that day that Nick said he didn't "touch" 100. He "touched" it, he just didn't break it. Again, what are we talking about? Duran can't get guys out throwing 100 instead of 102?

If Duran is hurt, that's very much a problem. Otherwise, I'm not so worried. He's broke 100 multiple times this spring. 100 with a hammer curve is plenty to get guys out. Pitch sequencing and possibly tipping pitches has always been my concern with Duran. 

There are a whole lot of teams that'd be happy to have this "concerning, decline season" from a guy in their pen:

My goodness. That fastball velo of just 100.5 instead of 102 was good enough for just the 100th percentile.

Pitch sequencing - command. Fix those and velocity of 102 or 98.3 isn’t a concern. If guys are looking fastball because you just threw a splinker in the dirt, after 2 curveballs, you have a problem. Fastball early in counts and get ahead - then the other 2 pitches are devastating whether in the zone or not. He’s a power pitcher that pitches backwards and tries to look cute fooling guys. If it’s the bench calling pitches OR the catcher……that I don’t know? It’s problematic though for him. His stuff is excellent and if he doesn’t dig holes in counts, he’ll be great at any velocity.

Duran’s success doesn’t hinge on him throwing 102 any more Griffin Jax does.

[Unwinder]

Obviously we can't expect him to be in top form without his full Target Field walk-out routine.

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/20/2025 at 1:33 PM, Cody Pirkl said:

There's any number of arguments one could come up with regarding his first two seasons in which he was one of the top 2 or 3 relievers in baseball. There was no scouting report or MLB data to gameplay with in his rookie season for example.

And I get the argument that all of spring is a small sample, but even without his last outing in which he didn't draw a single whiff, his whiff rates this spring would have been bad instead of disastrous as they are now. 

And yes, as the league sees him more and compiles more data, they're better able to prepare. He throws a pretty straight fastball that doesn't have much for standout characteristics aside from the velocity. For all we know, it could become very hittable if it drops below 100 mph. He wouldn't be the first. 

And I'm glad you're not concerned, I hope you're right. Some people prefer to ignore absolutely everything about spring training performance. I think there are still indicators that deserve attention.

Certainly there are indicators in Spring for essentially all players. No doubt……can’t ignore Spring results/trends.

His “best pitch”, theoretically, is his curveball if one asks many people around the organization. Personally, I like his 98MPH splinker!

I’d be more concerned with his fastball velocity differences year to year if he threw 70% fastballs and that was his primary weapon. Arguably, all 3 of his pitches are out pitches. Command and pitch selection will drive his success or failure, IMO, not a 2 Mph decline in his fastball. Throwing a straight fastball at 99.5Mph IS hittable if he’s behind 3-1……more hittable than 102. Fastballs to start hitters to make his other two pitches much more effective, that’s what I’m hoping for in ‘25.