There's Real Reason to Worry About Jhoan Durán

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

"His overall whiff rate was the worst of his career at a still-solid 32.9%." A little misleading here, aren't we? "Still-solid?" 32.9% was the 93rd percentile for whiff rate in baseball last year. That's a little more than "solid." The 75th percentile is "solid." The 93rd percentile is quite a bit better than "solid."

Duran was at 99.7 that day that Nick said he didn't "touch" 100. He "touched" it, he just didn't break it. Again, what are we talking about? Duran can't get guys out throwing 100 instead of 102?

If Duran is hurt, that's very much a problem. Otherwise, I'm not so worried. He's broke 100 multiple times this spring. 100 with a hammer curve is plenty to get guys out. Pitch sequencing and possibly tipping pitches has always been my concern with Duran. 

There are a whole lot of teams that'd be happy to have this "concerning, decline season" from a guy in their pen:

My goodness. That fastball velo of just 100.5 instead of 102 was good enough for just the 100th percentile.

I'm a pretty firm believer that fastball characteristics matter. Duran's fastball is different than Joe Ryan's, whose 95 has more ride and therefore looks faster than the radar gun picks up on. Depending on the shape, extension, angle etc., there's a breaking point for every pitchers fastball where it's effectiveness drops off, which affects their whole repertoire. Just because one pitcher saw that drop off at 93 mph doesn't mean another will. It's absolutely possible and I'd argue likely that Duran can be less effective at 100 than 102. 

It's also valuable to identify concerning trends before they bubble over into actual performance. Statcast percentiles may be more indicative than just looking at a pitchers ERA, but things like chase rate also tell the story of how deceptive a pitcher is and how opposing hitters see them. Duran had a decline in that in 2024 despite his still solid season as I pointed out, but the bottom has fallen out this spring. 

If anyone wants to shrug off the slight decline he showed last year or the red flags he's shown this spring, I've got no issue with that. I just find it concerning and find it worth keeping a close eye on.

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

The second string defense makes the plays against Detroit and it's a different stat line.

It's not about his final stat line, it's about the numbers under the hood that lead to the stat line. In both regards, Duran has not had a good spring. I'm sure the answer to this is "spring doesn't matter", which is fine if you feel that way, but I personally think at least some things do actually matter in the spring, especially when the season is right around the corner.

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fastball shape absolutely matters. But he hasn't always thrown 102. Including in his dominant rookie season. His fastball velo in 2022 was 100.8. Last year it was 100.5. His whiff rate in 2022 was 34.7. 94th percentile. Last year was 32.9. 93rd percentile. He's been over 100 MPH multiple times this spring. His K rate in 2022 was higher than in 2023 even though he wasn't throwing as hard. He didn't have to throw 102 in 2022 or 2024 to be effective so why should we believe he has to do it in 2025?

How many swings has he had against him this spring to generate that 11.8% whiff rate? How many of them came in the game Tuesday? 

I agree, teams should be looking for trends and trying to decipher what they mean. I mentioned pitch sequencing and tipping specifically because of his chase rate. If he's hurt that's a massive concern. What is your concern if he isn't hurt? The league "figured him out?" They have him solved at 100.1 vs 100.5 to the tune of a 20% difference in whiff%? 10% difference in whiff%? 

That's why I point out the misleading statement of "still-solid 32.9% whiff rate." That's the 93rd percentile. And he was throwing 100, not 102 last year. He was "touching" 100 on Tuesday. He's been over 100 multiple times already this spring. So, he's in the same range he's been in for 2 out of 3 years in his career where his whiff% was in the 93rd and 94th percentiles. I'm not so concerned about the crazy small sample size producing a 11.8 whiff rate at this point, no. 

There's any number of arguments one could come up with regarding his first two seasons in which he was one of the top 2 or 3 relievers in baseball. There was no scouting report or MLB data to gameplay with in his rookie season for example.

And I get the argument that all of spring is a small sample, but even without his last outing in which he didn't draw a single whiff, his whiff rates this spring would have been bad instead of disastrous as they are now. 

And yes, as the league sees him more and compiles more data, they're better able to prepare. He throws a pretty straight fastball that doesn't have much for standout characteristics aside from the velocity. For all we know, it could become very hittable if it drops below 100 mph. He wouldn't be the first. 

And I'm glad you're not concerned, I hope you're right. Some people prefer to ignore absolutely everything about spring training performance. I think there are still indicators that deserve attention.

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I agree with @chpettit19. Duran's velocity is elite at 100mph or 102mph. Last year looked like it was luck fueled as his FIP was better than his mega velo 2023.
2022 = 100.9, 2.52 FIP
2023 = 101.8, 3.21 FIP
2024 = 100.4, 2.85 FIP <-- Duran can't throw hard anymore, he's cooked, what's wrong????

Duran has pitched 6.1 innings this year in spring training. He's publicly stated he's not trying to throw max velo right now.

3/12 vs. Boston. 21.4% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 2Ks.
3/15 vs. Atlanta. 18.2% swinging strike rate. 1.0 IP, 0Ks.
3/18 vs. Detroit. 0.0% swinging strike rate. 0.1 IP, 0Ks, 3R 2ER. <--- His swinging strike rate in ST is bad!
The last batter fouled off 6 pitches and saw 11 of the 24 pitches Duran threw. Fastball velo ranged from 98.1mph to 99.7mph.

 

For what it's worth, his swinging strike rate last spring was 25% when he had an oblique injury. While his last outing dragged it down, those first two outings you listed were also quite bad.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

My point is that his 3rd season wasn't actually meaningfully different than his first 2. Are the 3 seasons below in order or not? Can you tell without looking super closely at certain numbers that you know? My point is that Duran didn't significantly change last year. That's why I pointed out the nonsense of you calling 32.9% "still-solid" as if it wasn't actually great. He was still elite last year. He didn't suddenly start getting hit hard. He was still striking people out. Yes, his ERA ballooned, but not to 5 or 7 or anything crazy. The point is that he was still great. Especially in the 9th where his ERA was 2.17 and he had a .207/.280/.311/.591 line against.

I feel like you're interpreting my opinion as 2024 being some kind of disaster for him when that's not the case whatsoever. He lost a full tick on his fastball and the pitch had a negative run value. There were some weird potential luck related things with it, but it also lost two inches of vertical movement.

His WPA was the worst of his career and he had more occasions of looking vulnerable than his first two seasons combined, and there are statistics that show why aside from his Savant percentiles. That's a problem when one pitcher makes up such a significant portion of the bullpens projected value. To see him struggle in ways beyond ERA this spring worries me personally. They can only afford so much of a decline.

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

@Cody Pirkl swinging strike rates not whiff rate.

18.1-21.4% is ultra elite. Last year, only 7 of 254 relievers with 30+ innings managed a swinging strike rate of 18.0% or higher. None was over Josh Hader's 20.5%.
 

That's totally my bad, I've had my mind on whiffs for most of this conversation and those two stats always make my head spin.

Swinging strike rate is valuable, and I can't check it right this moment, but I imagine he wasn't exactly cruising along in that department before his last outing either. And swinging strike rate is another metric he declined in in 2024.

I have no problem with anyone defense more to swinging strike rate as an indicator because generally I'm in that same camp. I will say CSW is typically my favorite, and that's way down at 23% this spring too. Paired with the overall lack of swing and miss so far, it's something I'll be watching very closely when the season starts.