Can a Healthy Joe Ryan Elevate to Ace Status in 2025?

[Eric Blonigen]

Joe Ryan has, in each of the past two seasons, been the Twins best starting pitcher for long stretches until derailed by injuries. If fully healthy, can he be an ace in 2025?

Image courtesy of © John Hefti-Imagn Images

The Joe Ryan of 2025 barely resembles the soft-tossing, funky-delivery former water polo player the Twins traded for. He has added significant velocity, changed his pitch mix, and blossomed into a borderline elite player. The one thing he hasn’t been able to accomplish thus far is to stay healthy for a full, 33-start season. If he can add that this season, how far would he be from an ace?.

This piece will dig into Ryan’s performance and, more importantly, his health outlook as we enter the most exciting time of year: spring training.

Past Performance
In 2023, Ryan made 15 healthy starts, then injured his groin warming up prior to his June 27th start. He pitched injured (and poorly) for seven starts before announcing his injury, went on the shelf for a month, and showed some after-effects of his groin strain upon his return. For the purposes of this analysis, we will only look at and extrapolate the first 15 starts. Yes, this is fuzzy math, and yes, I’m ok with that.

Across those 15 starts, he averaged 5.8 innings per start, with a 27.3% strikeout rate, walked 4.1% of the batters he faced, had a 2.77 FIP, and a WHIP of just 0.91. That’s all fantastic. Across a full season, with those same rates, that would have been the best in the league in WHIP and FIP, tied for sixth in strikeout rate and fourth in walk rate. Sound like an ace to you? Yeah. Me too.

2024 is a bit easier to project, as Ryan didn’t pitch injured for a long stretch as he did in 2023. Last season, Joe Ryan made 23 starts prior to going on the shelf with a grade two Teres Major strain. Over those 23 starts, he pitched 135 innings of 3.44 FIP ball. That’s just short of a six-inning average start. He struck out 27.3% of opposing batters, walked just 4.3%, had a WHIP under 1.0, and from the eye test, he just looked filthy, more often than not.

Comparing those results to the league leaders and extrapolated across a full season, here’s how he would have stacked up to the rest of his American League cohort: fourth in innings pitched, fourth in WHIP, seventh in K-rate, third in BB-rate, ninth in FIP, and fifth in pitcher fWAR. I don’t know about you, but I call that ace caliber.

So, we know Ryan is a great pitcher when healthy. As it stands, he has added velocity in each major league season, has tinkered with his pitch mix, and maintained his funky-yet-repeatable delivery. It’s possible he adds another tick of velocity, and if he does, it’s anyone’s guess just how high his ceiling could be. But is it reasonable to expect health across 30+ starts? Let’s look for clues.

Current Health
In a spring training media session, Rocco Baldelli said of Joe Ryan: “Joe’s treated himself really well this offseason. He looks good and strong and mobile like he always is. I think he’s looking to come back this year and put together …a full season’s worth of innings and produce the way he did or even better than last year. He had an awesome year going last year before he suffered the issue but he’s come in fully healed and looked great.”

Look, a guy being in the “best shape of his life” is a well-worn cliche across baseball. It’s easy to treat Rocco’s remarks as throwaway platitudes used to fill space in a scrum. But is that what they are? Based on interviews from the past several seasons, it’s become clear that Rocco prefers not to talk about players’ health, likely based on his own playing career and how personal debilitating injuries can feel. Detailing Ryan’s health and preparation is a good sign. 

Ryan’s injuries, and the prognosis for them
Ryan’s injuries in each of the past two seasons were isolated in nature, and neither were related to his elbow or rotator cuff, both of which would be causes for concern.

What do we know about the outlook for players suffering the injuries Ryan has encountered? Well, first the good news: Teres Major injuries tend to be “one and done” based on the limited data surrounding this relatively uncommon baseball injury. The prognosis, according to the NIH, is a full recovery without future risk.

Groin strains, on the other hand, are both common among athletes, and are more likely to reoccur. However, medical guidance suggests that deliberate strength and conditioning routines can significantly limit risks. So, it’s probably safe to assume that the Twins training and medical teams have worked with Ryan to ensure there’s a routine in place, especially because it did not reoccur last year.

So, to wrap this all up neatly, Ryan’s conditioning is on point, he is unlikely to suffer the effects of his prior injuries, and he may just be lined up to give the Twins 180 innings of low-three ERA ball. If he does, the Twins' top three starters should be among the best in baseball, and fans should gear up for some October baseball.

Just in case you don’t believe me, check out the other names on this list. It’s good company to be in.

Don’t worry, I’m knocking on some wood, but baseball is back, and this is the time of year to be an eternal optimist.

---

What do you predict from Joe Ryan this season? Comment below!

View full article

[Doctor Gast]

Joe Ryan has the stuff, but IMO when a game is very tough & on the line. I'll still take Lopez over Ryan.

[CRF]

I'm not real concerned about "ace status"...I just want him to be healthy ALL season. The results will be fine, if he is. 

[Mark G]

I love Joe, and we miss him when he is out, that's for sure.  Having said that, I do have an old school idea of what an "ace" is:  a stud; a workhorse.  Averaging just below 6 innings a start tells me he either doesn't have the stamina to be that stud, or the brass doesn't trust him the 4th time through a line up, which is what an ace would do.  

Again, this is not disparaging Joe; I think he is a wonderful #2 or 3 starter, depending on who else is around him.  I hope he is healthy for the full year, and proves me as wrong as I have ever been.  But an ace has to do better than less than 6 innings a game, no matter how good his stats are in those 6 or less innings.  Again, old school, and I can feel the arrows already.  😉  

And Eric, if spring training is the most exciting time of the year to you, what does October do for you?  😇

[Fatbat]

In agreement with @Mark G! Ryan isn’t Ace status without him pitching the whole season. 32 starts, 6+ IP/start average. ERA around 3 and a WHIP sub 1.25.  

If we have Pablo/Ryan/Ober in that range, we will win a lot of ball games!  Get a total team effort including an above average offense consistently producing 4+ runs/game average and it will be a fun season to watch!

 

[Otaknam]

27 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I love Joe, and we miss him when he is out, that's for sure.  Having said that, I do have an old school idea of what an "ace" is:  a stud; a workhorse.  Averaging just below 6 innings a start tells me he either doesn't have the stamina to be that stud, or the brass doesn't trust him the 4th time through a line up, which is what an ace would do.  

Again, this is not disparaging Joe; I think he is a wonderful #2 or 3 starter, depending on who else is around him.  I hope he is healthy for the full year, and proves me as wrong as I have ever been.  But an ace has to do better than less than 6 innings a game, no matter how good his stats are in those 6 or less innings.  Again, old school, and I can feel the arrows already.  😉  

And Eric, if spring training is the most exciting time of the year to you, what does October do for you?  😇

Ryan’s lack of innings is about Rocco dogmatically following analytics and not trusting his starters to go through the lineup a third time, Rocco took Ryan out after the second inning in a playoff game in 2023, a game they eventually lost by a low score. Two innings! Talk about lack of trust! 

[madtowntwin]

So we are hoping that the Teres Major injury has "Minor" to no effect this season??!! Sorry - Could not resist. As I type this I was just wondering....Twins record before Joe was injured and then subsequently??

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

I love Joe, and we miss him when he is out, that's for sure.  Having said that, I do have an old school idea of what an "ace" is:  a stud; a workhorse.  Averaging just below 6 innings a start tells me he either doesn't have the stamina to be that stud, or the brass doesn't trust him the 4th time through a line up, which is what an ace would do.  

There were 14 pitchers in the major leagues last year that averaged 6.0 or more innings per start. The Phillies and Cubs each had 2, so under this reasoning, only 12 teams had an 'ace' last year. It also means Max Fried is an ace and Sonny Gray is not. Sure, innings pitched is one thing - but not the only thing - to consider.

[LambchoP]

I love watching Ryan pitch. If he can learn to get deeper into ballgames this year while keeping his strikeouts up and era down, him and Pablo could be a great one two punch in the rotation. Ober can be great too if healthy Im less sure on Paddack and SWR. S looked great last year, hopefully he can build on that. I do think well be seeing Festa and Morris in the rotation within a few months. Even if its just temporary like a 15 day il stint for Paddack for something like arm fatigue.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

Ryan’s lack of innings is about Rocco dogmatically following analytics and not trusting his starters to go through the lineup a third time, Rocco took Ryan out after the second inning in a playoff game in 2023, a game they eventually lost by a low score. Two innings! Talk about lack of trust! 

The last couple of years it has been pitch count. They get 100. If it doesn’t look like they will be able to complete the next inning with under 100 the pitcher gets pulled. 

[David Maro]

Ace pitchers control their pitch count that is how they go innings. All the Twins starters seem to be approaching 80-100 pitches in 4-5 innings. To be an Ace you need to go after hitters,not nibble around the zone. If Joe lowers his walk rate that would help his pitch count and get him more innings.

[Karbo]

Starter's IP has been an issue ever since Rocco arrived. Granted, a few of the seasons was because they had sub par pitchers, but the last couple of years it seems they have been awful quick with the hook. Rocco is going by the stats and charts, and he's probably correct to pull them at least 1/2 the time. This is what you get when a guy doesn't believe or trust his gut.

[PatPfund]

Love Ryan, and his health/performance is key to our season. But when you build a big chunk of an article about statistical data, "fuzzy" math really isn't acceptable. Baseball's regular season is a 6 month marathon, and picking out premium stretches of one player's year, then comparing that to other players' full seasons (with all the ups and downs) isn't valid methodology. Ace potential is there, but Lopez and Ober have been better over the past two years (number of games pitched matters). If Ryan pushes a (knock on wood) healthy Ober and Lopez in IP this year, I love our playoff chances.

Edited February 15, 2025 by PatPfund
left a letter out!

[old nurse]

6 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Ace pitchers control their pitch count that is how they go innings. All the Twins starters seem to be approaching 80-100 pitches in 4-5 innings. To be an Ace you need to go after hitters,not nibble around the zone. If Joe lowers his walk rate that would help his pitch count and get him more innings.

Go look at the stats and do the math next time. Lopez and Ober had 18 quality starts, Ryan 13   Yup. SWR usually only went through the batting order twice with a lot of pitches. No one is calling him an ace 

[Aerodeliria]

I love Ryan. I thought he was a steal the moment I saw him pitch against Japan in the one of those international competitions. He completely shut down the Japanese hitters (they were clearly the best squad as most of them were regular players in the NPB).

It would be great if he could stay healthy for the whole season.

[old nurse]

22 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Starter's IP has been an issue ever since Rocco arrived. Granted, a few of the seasons was because they had sub par pitchers, but the last couple of years it seems they have been awful quick with the hook. Rocco is going by the stats and charts, and he's probably correct to pull them at least 1/2 the time. This is what you get when a guy doesn't believe or trust his gut.

https://www.activeptandsports.com/baseball-pitch-counts/#:~:text=The study found that higher,game quadruples their injury risk.

[old nurse]

On average Ryan, Ober, and Lopez face around 24 batters a game. Pitch counts are around 90 on average.  It is not an innings pitched issue, It is not a twice through the order issue. It is a relative health issue. 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

On average Ryan, Ober, and Lopez face around 24 batters a game. Pitch counts are around 90 on average.  It is not an innings pitched issue, It is not a twice through the order issue. It is a relative health issue. 

Correct.  His time spent on the IL takes away more innings than Rocco’s plan.

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Ace pitchers control their pitch count that is how they go innings. All the Twins starters seem to be approaching 80-100 pitches in 4-5 innings. To be an Ace you need to go after hitters,not nibble around the zone. If Joe lowers his walk rate that would help his pitch count and get him more innings.

Less foul balls would help all of them.

[Parfigliano]

OK.  4 pitches per YOA.  Translate that to the pro level and Lopez, Ober, and Ryan are good for 112 a game.

[Blyleven2011]

We have a very good starting  pitching staff to be optimistic about , but realistically they are just a step below being an ace  , in today's game there just aren't many aces , studs or bulldogs that you can rely on to win practically every game , when we had ( cy young ) Santana you were rest assured you were going to get a win ...

Twins staff is very good , but I just don't ever have that feeling the day they pitch that they will pitch to a win , they will give you a competitive game and keep you in the game of most starts ...

[Linus]

Of course we would have to define ace to be able to discuss this.  Joe has improved and is much better than I thought he would be and I’ve been a fan since day 1.  Put whatever label you want - to me he’s just a really good pitcher who I hope stays healthy.  The rest will take care of itself.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Starter's IP has been an issue ever since Rocco arrived. Granted, a few of the seasons was because they had sub par pitchers, but the last couple of years it seems they have been awful quick with the hook. Rocco is going by the stats and charts, and he's probably correct to pull them at least 1/2 the time. This is what you get when a guy doesn't believe or trust his gut.

A quick hook also can indicate faith in the bullpen, backed up by excellent performances from the relief pitchers, which the Twins had in 2024 and will have again this year. 

[tim5189]

this is off the subject, but I am wondering if anyone has an update about the international signing of  Carlos Taveras as I have not seen an announcement of his official signing. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

https://www.activeptandsports.com/baseball-pitch-counts/#:~:text=The study found that higher,game quadruples their injury risk.

This is a wonderfully informative  article attached. I am going to forward it to my 18 year old  lefty grandson, who pitches for Scott Bankhead's travel team plus also for my grandson's high school baseball team in Greensboro, NC. He has committed to pitch for Concord University in Athens, West Virginia next year.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think we need to put the Rocco has a  “quick hook“ narrative to bed. I’ve been around a while and I remember when you expected every starter to go seven innings. Baseball isn’t played that way anymore, mostly because of the increased injury risk from those extra innings and the cost of starters. Starters did not last as many seasons in the old days because they pitched them so hard. Now we expect starting pitchers to go well into their mid 30s and we pay them so much that is just not worth taking a lot of extra risk, especially during your average midseason game.

The Twins averaged 5.28 innings per start last year. The highest was the Braves at 5.58 innings per start, the average was 5.2. The Twins were tied for 12th Place in MLB for innings per start, so a little above average. Bottom line is that Rocco doesn’t pull starting pitchers any earlier than anybody else or at least didn’t last year. The evidence suggests that it’s unfair to criticize him for having a “quick hook” overall. He’s frankly more patient than many. 

[ashbury]

Twins starting pitchers in 2024 went 852 1/3 innings or almost exactly major league average.  This despite slightly worse ERA than average (4.33 vs 4.15 for the majors).  Said another way, only St Louis starters pitched more innings despite an ERA as bad as Minnesota's.

The stats in 2023 were even more pronounced, when Twins starters were actually performing well.  Then, they were 4th in the majors in starters' innings.

The trope that "Rocco has a quick hook" is old and tired.  When he's got the horses, he manages them much like his peers.

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think we need to put the Rocco has a  “quick hook“ narrative to bed. I’ve been around a while and I remember when you expected every starter to go seven innings. Baseball isn’t played that way anymore, mostly because of the increased injury risk from those extra innings and the cost of starters. Starters did not last as many seasons in the old days because they pitched them so hard. Now we expect starting pitchers to go well into their mid 30s and we pay them so much that is just not worth taking a lot of extra risk, especially during your average midseason game.

The Twins averaged 5.28 innings per start last year. The highest was the Braves at 5.58 innings per start, the average was 5.2. The Twins were tied for 12th Place in MLB for innings per start, so a little above average. Bottom line is that Rocco doesn’t pull starting pitchers any earlier than anybody else or at least didn’t last year. The evidence suggests that it’s unfair to criticize him for having a “quick hook” overall. He’s frankly more patient than many. 

Ha, we seemed to be typing at the same moment.  😀

[HerbieFan]

Don't think he's ever an "ace".  But, man would 28 starts of what we saw last year by awesome!

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

There were 14 pitchers in the major leagues last year that averaged 6.0 or more innings per start. The Phillies and Cubs each had 2, so under this reasoning, only 12 teams had an 'ace' last year. It also means Max Fried is an ace and Sonny Gray is not. Sure, innings pitched is one thing - but not the only thing - to consider.

It is true that there are very few Aces anymore.  Pitching is a spinning wheel with multiple arms in every game.  No more Spahn, Marichal, Koufax, Drysdale, Maddox, Johnson...  I miss them.