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The Joe Ryan of 2025 barely resembles the soft-tossing, funky-delivery former water polo player the Twins traded for. He has added significant velocity, changed his pitch mix, and blossomed into a borderline elite player. The one thing he hasn’t been able to accomplish thus far is to stay healthy for a full, 33-start season. If he can add that this season, how far would he be from an ace?.
This piece will dig into Ryan’s performance and, more importantly, his health outlook as we enter the most exciting time of year: spring training.
Past Performance
In 2023, Ryan made 15 healthy starts, then injured his groin warming up prior to his June 27th start. He pitched injured (and poorly) for seven starts before announcing his injury, went on the shelf for a month, and showed some after-effects of his groin strain upon his return. For the purposes of this analysis, we will only look at and extrapolate the first 15 starts. Yes, this is fuzzy math, and yes, I’m ok with that.
Across those 15 starts, he averaged 5.8 innings per start, with a 27.3% strikeout rate, walked 4.1% of the batters he faced, had a 2.77 FIP, and a WHIP of just 0.91. That’s all fantastic. Across a full season, with those same rates, that would have been the best in the league in WHIP and FIP, tied for sixth in strikeout rate and fourth in walk rate. Sound like an ace to you? Yeah. Me too.
2024 is a bit easier to project, as Ryan didn’t pitch injured for a long stretch as he did in 2023. Last season, Joe Ryan made 23 starts prior to going on the shelf with a grade two Teres Major strain. Over those 23 starts, he pitched 135 innings of 3.44 FIP ball. That’s just short of a six-inning average start. He struck out 27.3% of opposing batters, walked just 4.3%, had a WHIP under 1.0, and from the eye test, he just looked filthy, more often than not.
Comparing those results to the league leaders and extrapolated across a full season, here’s how he would have stacked up to the rest of his American League cohort: fourth in innings pitched, fourth in WHIP, seventh in K-rate, third in BB-rate, ninth in FIP, and fifth in pitcher fWAR. I don’t know about you, but I call that ace caliber.
So, we know Ryan is a great pitcher when healthy. As it stands, he has added velocity in each major league season, has tinkered with his pitch mix, and maintained his funky-yet-repeatable delivery. It’s possible he adds another tick of velocity, and if he does, it’s anyone’s guess just how high his ceiling could be. But is it reasonable to expect health across 30+ starts? Let’s look for clues.
Current Health
In a spring training media session, Rocco Baldelli said of Joe Ryan: “Joe’s treated himself really well this offseason. He looks good and strong and mobile like he always is. I think he’s looking to come back this year and put together …a full season’s worth of innings and produce the way he did or even better than last year. He had an awesome year going last year before he suffered the issue but he’s come in fully healed and looked great.”
Look, a guy being in the “best shape of his life” is a well-worn cliche across baseball. It’s easy to treat Rocco’s remarks as throwaway platitudes used to fill space in a scrum. But is that what they are? Based on interviews from the past several seasons, it’s become clear that Rocco prefers not to talk about players’ health, likely based on his own playing career and how personal debilitating injuries can feel. Detailing Ryan’s health and preparation is a good sign.
Ryan’s injuries, and the prognosis for them
Ryan’s injuries in each of the past two seasons were isolated in nature, and neither were related to his elbow or rotator cuff, both of which would be causes for concern.
What do we know about the outlook for players suffering the injuries Ryan has encountered? Well, first the good news: Teres Major injuries tend to be “one and done” based on the limited data surrounding this relatively uncommon baseball injury. The prognosis, according to the NIH, is a full recovery without future risk.
Groin strains, on the other hand, are both common among athletes, and are more likely to reoccur. However, medical guidance suggests that deliberate strength and conditioning routines can significantly limit risks. So, it’s probably safe to assume that the Twins training and medical teams have worked with Ryan to ensure there’s a routine in place, especially because it did not reoccur last year.
So, to wrap this all up neatly, Ryan’s conditioning is on point, he is unlikely to suffer the effects of his prior injuries, and he may just be lined up to give the Twins 180 innings of low-three ERA ball. If he does, the Twins' top three starters should be among the best in baseball, and fans should gear up for some October baseball.
Just in case you don’t believe me, check out the other names on this list. It’s good company to be in.
Don’t worry, I’m knocking on some wood, but baseball is back, and this is the time of year to be an eternal optimist.
What do you predict from Joe Ryan this season? Comment below!
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