What Can the Minnesota Twins Expect From Harrison Bader?

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins and outfielder Harrison Bader have agreed to a one-year contract. Bader will take over the role as the team’s fourth outfielder. What can we expect to get out of the 2021 Gold Glove winner, entering his age-31 season?

Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Since waiving Jake Cave following the 2022 season, the Twins have rotated their fourth outfield role, trading for Michael A. Taylor to be that guy in 2023 and Manuel Margot to do the same in 2024. Now, they're signing Harrison Bader ahead of the 2025 season. Like each of those moves, prioritizing defense over offense, Bader represents another glove-first outfielder off the bench. 

Taylor and Margot entered each of their respective seasons with the club with similar expectations—namely, that they would provide above-average defense and a passable bat. Despite that, their contributions to those seasons couldn’t have been more different.

Taylor more than held up his side of the deal, having one of the best seasons of his career at the plate and providing solid defense across 129 games. In fact, he exceeded fans' expectations—so much so that many wanted him back in a Twins uniform (which was quickly poo-poo'ed when the Twins announced payroll cuts). For what it’s worth, the Twins made the right call in moving on, as he produced a 50 wRC+ in 2024 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unfortunately, their Taylor replacement didn’t perform much better. For the first time in his career, Margot wasn’t even replacement level, being a black hole at the plate while providing below-average defense. Now, the Twins take another shot at recreating Taylor by adding Bader. Should we have similar expectations for him as we did with Taylor and Margot?

In short, yes. He profiles similarly, as a strong defender with a passable (albeit below-average) bat but a long history of injuries. Fortunately, Bader had the healthiest year of his career in 2024, playing in 143 games. Prior to 2024, Bader averaged 91 games a season dealing with various injuries, but most concerning are the multiple injuries to the lower half of his body (two hamstring strains, plantar fasciitis, and a groin strain). In 2023 alone, three separate strains put him on the injured list and out of the Yankees' reach when they needed him.

On the positive side of things, he differs from Taylor and Margot by having produced multiple seasons as an above-average contributor at the plate. Unfortunately, it’s been three years since he’s had such a season, but his career 90 wRC+ is the highest of the three being compared. That said, he should be in a role that allows him to perform well at the plate. I would expect Bader to draw most of the at-bats against left-handed pitching at one of the corner outfield positions. Both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching early on in their careers and, while they deserve a chance to prove otherwise, one of the two will likely give way to Bader when a southpaw starts or is brought in as a reliever. Of course, he will also relieve Byron Buxton in center field on occasion, regardless of who is on the mound. 

PECOTA projects Bader for 406 plate appearances and a .234/.283/.357 line, with 9 homers and 19 steals. His ZiPS-projected line is similar. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, he’s carried a .775 OPS and a 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over his entire career (although he struggled against lefties in 2024). He experienced better success against righties last season, but has generally been a below-average producer at the plate. More importantly, because both systems forecast Bader to be an above-average defender and runner, they still peg him for around 1.5 wins above replacement in less than a full-time role.

Although their offensive production projects similarly, this signing probably points towards a reduction in at-bats (and maybe even the loss of a roster spot) for super-utility Michael Helman. Where he falls short compared to Bader is that he’s not a particularly strong defender, despite his ostensible versatility. If Helman finds a role on this team, it’s likely as the last man on the bench, left for pinch-running duties.

Of the four most recent fourth outfielders (including Cave), I have to say I’m the most excited about Bader. I’m tempering expectations given his injury history and how he struggled against lefties in 2024. I think his floor is assuredly higher than what the team got from Margot, and his ceiling can be higher than they got out of Taylor. I think the biggest concern is whether he can have back-to-back healthy campaigns.

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What are your thoughts on this addition by the Twins? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[MMMordabito]

He's the perfect jedi Master for Star Wars theme night.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

He's the perfect jedi Master for Star Wars theme night.

Must... not... promote... this... comment...

[Greggory Masterson]

5 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

He's the perfect jedi Master for Star Wars theme night.

Oh yes because it rhymes with Vader! Very clever, well done.

[miracleb]

What can they expect....a slightly lesser hitting Margot......

(or the missing piece in the Dylan Cease trade!!)

[sweetmusicviola16]

Hopefully they will trade Kiersey to an organization that will give him an actual oppurtunity. 

[Karbo]

I can see him producing similar numbers to MAT, with a little less power but a little better OBA. 

[MinnesotaTwins26]

If he's better than Manuel Margot I'll be fine with Bader.

[ashbury]

The problem with playing platoon games is if you bat your righty 8th or 9th, he may get only one crack at the LHP before the opposing manager brings in the RHP long man from the bullpen in the fourth inning, to face precisely the batter you have in there to deter lefties.

Is Bader good enough to lead off when a southpaw is starting?  Questionable, even if he gives way to Larnach or Wallner by mid-game. He's better against lefties, but not actually "good."

[LambchoP]

So Keirsey won't see MLB again this year?

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The problem with playing platoon games is if you bat your righty 8th or 9th, he may get only one crack at the LHP before the opposing manager brings in the RHP long man from the bullpen in the fourth inning, to face precisely the batter you have in there to deter lefties.

Is Bader good enough to lead off when a southpaw is starting?  Questionable, even if he gives way to Larnach or Wallner by mid-game. He's better against lefties, but not actually "good."

He's actually been worse against lefties in 4 of his 7 non-2020 seasons. It's just that when he was better against lefties he put up crazy numbers against them in those other 3 years so his career splits favor lefties slightly. But he's certainly no lefty killer. Glove only player.

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 But he's certainly no lefty killer.

Rocco (and/or the front office) will likely give him the chance to be that, nonetheless.

[Muppet]

Well its not nothing. But it might be less than nothing. Look at how that dismal offensive performance gets even worse in the last couple months of the season. And he's even worse at left handed pitchers than right handers. 

[Doctor Gast]

Last offseason, what we really needed was at least an inning-eater SP. But Twins said no we need a broken SP, a bunch of fringe RPs, a different primary 2Bman, an outhouse Buxton sub instead of a cheap, capable inhouse player & a FA 1Bman that can cover for the 2Bman but can't hit instead of a cheap inhouse options that can really hit & needed to play to play 1B to help in their recovery. (For a team that's always crying about money why are they so quick to waste it?) How did that work out? Did those moves take us to the next level? No they got us a 4th place in the AL Central. How did those moves make us better for '25? How did that help us to develop our inhouse players that CLE does so well at? How did that help Keirsey? How did that help Miranda? How did that help Kiriloff? All very capable players. The Twins have drastically hindered their MLB development. Twins must have a very low opinion of how they have developed these players.

Since these priorities didn't work out, you'd think they'd ditch them. Nope, all offseason, I hear the same talk: priority is to get someone in the OF. Like Margot, Bader will block several Twins prospects, especially Emma. But most of all, my heart goes out to Keirsey, who has put in the time to prove himself defensively & offensively. worthy & faithful only to be slapped in the face for the second time. Twins need to reward inhouse players not stab them in the back. With an opportunity in '24 & '25, Keirsey could have catapulted his MLB career, but now Keirsey will have to deal with betrayal.

Bader might be an upgrade in defense (like Margot was) but Keirsey has more potential offensively, cheaper & won't block Emma. Next FO priority backstab Miranda. This move does not move the needle, not worth the extra money & doesn't excite me, it makes me sad. These transactions just reinforce my disdain for this FO.

 

[Patzky]

56 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Rocco (and/or the front office) will likely give him the chance to be that, nonetheless.

If they give him #13..

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Last offseason, what we really needed was at least an inning-eater SP. But Twins said no we need a broken SP, a bunch of fringe RPs, a different primary 2Bman, an outhouse Buxton sub instead of a cheap, capable inhouse player & a FA 1Bman that can cover for the 2Bman but can't hit instead of a cheap inhouse options that can really hit & needed to play to play 1B to help in their recovery. (For a team that's always crying about money why are they so quick to waste it?) How did that work out? Did those moves take us to the next level? No they got us a 4th place in the AL Central. How did those moves make us better for '25? How did that help us to develop our inhouse players that CLE does so well at? How did that help Keirsey? How did that help Miranda? How did that help Kiriloff? All very capable players. The Twins have drastically hindered their MLB development. Twins must have a very low opinion of how they have developed these players.

Since these priorities didn't work out, you'd think they'd ditch them. Nope, all offseason, I hear the same talk: priority is to get someone in the OF. Like Margot, Bader will block several Twins prospects, especially Emma. But most of all, my heart goes out to Keirsey, who has put in the time to prove himself defensively & offensively. worthy & faithful only to be slapped in the face for the second time. Twins need to reward inhouse players not stab them in the back. With an opportunity in '24 & '25, Keirsey could have catapulted his MLB career, but now Keirsey will have to deal with betrayal.

Bader might be an upgrade in defense (like Margot was) but Keirsey has more potential offensively, cheaper & won't block Emma. Next FO priority backstab Miranda. This move does not move the needle, not worth the extra money & doesn't excite me, it makes me sad. These transactions just reinforce my disdain for this FO.

 

This move also greatly effects Hellman and Martin. Hellman and Keirsey for sure have just had their taxi ride to St.Paul booked. Martin also likely. No chance Martin makes the team now. Bader and Castro will both have full-time jobs moving around from position to position. Larnach also affected. As long as Buxton is healthy, and we hope he is, Bader making the big Twins $$$$ will be cutting into Larnach's role. Just when he is starting to make headway. BAM!!! I also contend that when the trade was made for Gasper that he will have an ML job. Why even have a minor league system when you do everything you can to get in the way of your prospects???

[tony&rodney]

Matthew, I'm happy for you that you feel this move puts the Twins in a good spot.

[sweetmusicviola16]

As the day has gone on and the more I evaluate this sign, the more I see that I would have liked to see this FO do nothing.  I'm not anti Bader, but we just signed a guy for 6.25 mil, who will play very regularly. Who's career trajectory is going downward. And derailed once again the careers of our significant prospects and players. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

The problem with playing platoon games is if you bat your righty 8th or 9th, he may get only one crack at the LHP before the opposing manager brings in the RHP long man from the bullpen in the fourth inning, to face precisely the batter you have in there to deter lefties.

Is Bader good enough to lead off when a southpaw is starting?  Questionable, even if he gives way to Larnach or Wallner by mid-game. He's better against lefties, but not actually "good."

My concern is the opposite. I suspect it's more likely we see Bader PH for Wallner/Larnach in the 5th inning against a lefty reliever rather than the other way around.

But if not Bader, it'd be Martin. Rocco can't resist. And I'd take Bader over Martin 100 times out of 100.

 

[Blyleven2011]

It's a surprise signing and the salary raises the payroll unless we trade someone like Vazquez and then a hole opens up at catcher , paddock  remains the most obvious choice to trade now because everyone needs pitching , pitching and more pitching , a team with money has got to be bold and creative to add paddack  , the money teams are out there but they've already depleted their prospects in trades elsewhere  ...

Pros ...

What we will get from Bader  , above average defense and some speed and the righthanded outfield hitter we needed  ( i guess ) ...

Cons ...

A below average hitter that doesn't belong hitting leadoff  , sure hope he doesn't pinch hit as bad as Margot , a 250 batting average  would be nice ...

Go Bader go , baseball is a mental and physical  game , get that MOJO mental game processed in your mind and take the bull by the horns and run with it ...

I feel bad for the players that have put their time in at the minors and a cup of coffee last year , they'll have to start in AAA once again or be dfa'd off the 40 man  , we need 2 roster spots , my guess Is headrick or gasser or 1 of helman or keirsey ...

[Fatbat]

Just more of a meh offseason….

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Hopefully they will trade Kiersey to an organization that will give him an actual oppurtunity. 

Maybe a package including Caramargo.  Catchers are valuable.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Last offseason, what we really needed was at least an inning-eater SP. But Twins said no we need a broken SP, a bunch of fringe RPs, a different primary 2Bman, an outhouse Buxton sub instead of a cheap, capable inhouse player & a FA 1Bman that can cover for the 2Bman but can't hit instead of a cheap inhouse options that can really hit & needed to play to play 1B to help in their recovery. (For a team that's always crying about money why are they so quick to waste it?) How did that work out? Did those moves take us to the next level? No they got us a 4th place in the AL Central. How did those moves make us better for '25? How did that help us to develop our inhouse players that CLE does so well at? How did that help Keirsey? How did that help Miranda? How did that help Kiriloff? All very capable players. The Twins have drastically hindered their MLB development. Twins must have a very low opinion of how they have developed these players.

Since these priorities didn't work out, you'd think they'd ditch them. Nope, all offseason, I hear the same talk: priority is to get someone in the OF. Like Margot, Bader will block several Twins prospects, especially Emma. But most of all, my heart goes out to Keirsey, who has put in the time to prove himself defensively & offensively. worthy & faithful only to be slapped in the face for the second time. Twins need to reward inhouse players not stab them in the back. With an opportunity in '24 & '25, Keirsey could have catapulted his MLB career, but now Keirsey will have to deal with betrayal.

Bader might be an upgrade in defense (like Margot was) but Keirsey has more potential offensively, cheaper & won't block Emma. Next FO priority backstab Miranda. This move does not move the needle, not worth the extra money & doesn't excite me, it makes me sad. These transactions just reinforce my disdain for this FO.

 

Seems like every year bring in the "vet presence" pay them millions and block the rookie all while crying limited funds.

[CRF]

I'd expect Bader to play a lot of CF, because there's no way Buxton will go thru the season without being injured, and on the IL, at least a couple times. 

[tony&rodney]

Expect absolutely nothing and then be pleasantly surprised by anything at all.

[Parfigliano]

20 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It's a surprise signing and the salary raises the payroll unless we trade someone like Vazquez and then a hole opens up at catcher , paddock  remains the most obvious choice to trade now because everyone needs pitching , pitching and more pitching , a team with money has got to be bold and creative to add paddack  , the money teams are out there but they've already depleted their prospects in trades elsewhere  ...

Pros ...

What we will get from Bader  , above average defense and some speed and the righthanded outfield hitter we needed  ( i guess ) ...

Cons ...

A below average hitter that doesn't belong hitting leadoff  , sure hope he doesn't pinch hit as bad as Margot , a 250 batting average  would be nice ...

Go Bader go , baseball is a mental and physical  game , get that MOJO mental game processed in your mind and take the bull by the horns and run with it ...

I feel bad for the players that have put their time in at the minors and a cup of coffee last year , they'll have to start in AAA once again or be dfa'd off the 40 man  , we need 2 roster spots , my guess Is headrick or gasser or 1 of helman or keirsey ...

Bader is what you get when you have no money and a FO that has convinced themselves life will end if they don't bring in a veteran RH outfield bat.  

Zero trust in their internally developed position players.

[DocBauer]

Ad I stated, more or less, in the other thread, I don't hate this move. Good defense, some pop/power, and some speed. And he'd BETTER have those things still because the bat just isn't very good.

Were I in charge, I would let Castro, Keirsey, Helman, and eventually back up CF and spend the $5M it took for Grichuk. He's a FAR better hitter who covers both OF corners, and DH, but has solid/decent career numbers against RH pitching so he isn't just some platoon option.

More power, better splits, better hitter. That's the way I would have gone.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Hopefully they will trade Kiersey to an organization that will give him an actual oppurtunity. 

A LH CFer that has been MLB-developed is very valuable. But thanks to the Twins, he'll be almost worthless. But I still hope they trade him so he can develop into someone special. & rub the Twins nose in how bad they screwed up again.

[Doctor Gast]

People complained that the Twins' MVP (BH) Castro was making $6.5M, so we have to dump his salary. Then they turn around & sign a platoon (RH) that doesn't move the needle for $6.5M & we have to jump & down? Where do all these things come from?

[sweetmusicviola16]

53 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

People complained that the Twins' MVP (BH) Castro was making $6.5M, so we have to dump his salary. Then they turn around & sign a platoon (RH) that doesn't move the needle for $6.5M & we have to jump & down? Where do all these things come from?

Don't forget Willi can play SS, 2B and 3B. Bader cannot. I'm sure Willi could step in at 1B too if really needed. Castro's career trajectory is still trending upward. He was way over used at the end of season.  Speaking of 1B that hasn't been addressed. Oh, but maybe it has. Think Gasper. I can see them kicking Miranda in the gut too by giving Gasper the majority of 1B play.