Improving the 2025 Minnesota Twins is Simpler Than We're Making It

[Greggory Masterson]

The Twins have accomplished next-to nothing this offseason. Fortunately, at least according to FanGraphs, nearly any offensive addition would help.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are a good team—at least on paper. FanGraphs runs projections over the offseason, and currently, the Twins rank seventh among all MLB teams in projected wins above replacement. It’s not a perfect system—baseball is played on the field, not a spreadsheet; they project Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa to play close to full seasons; plenty of remaining free agents can tilt the scales when they sign with other teams.

But it is a nice tool to use when evaluating a team against the rest of the league, at least in terms of present talent level. "Present" is doing a lot of work for the Twins who, by all accounts, won’t be making many moves this offseason due to payroll constraints, while their rivals with more spending power add to their squads.

 

FanGraphs projects Minnesota to have the best bullpen in baseball and sixth-best rotation, combining for the third-best pitching staff. They rank in the top 10 in projected performance at shortstop, third base, center field, and right field. Their second base group is seen as middle-of-the-pack. Their catcher, first base, left field, and designated hitter spots are all in the late teens.

Catcher is going to be what it’s going to be. There will likely be some sort of mix of Ryan Jeffers (if not traded), Christian Vázquez (if not traded), Jair Camargo, new addition Mickey Gasper, or a low-tier veteran free agent. But the other three spots are somewhat peculiar.

Whether you buy into the projections and methodologies used or not, the system can identify spots most open to improvement, and when your three lowest spots are left field, first base, and designated hitter, hoo boy, the mind starts running. These three positions are lowest on the defensive spectrum, meaning that there’s a higher offensive bar to clear to be an average or better hitter, but having a need at a combination of the areas opens a door so big even my inflated head could fit through it.

Those three spots being the teams’ positions of need means anyone can fill that hole. Right now, Fangraphs projects some combination of Trevor Larnach, José Miranda, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, and Luke Keaschall to fill those three spots. That group has a high ceiling but a low floor, given the question marks around each player.

Any bat will do. The team isn’t looking for, say, a third baseman; that’s Royce Lewis’s spot. They just need some sort of bat. There’s been some hemming and hawing about finding a first baseman specifically, but they probably don’t even have to do that. If they find an outfielder with enough thump, they can easily make room for him in left field and at DH without sacrificing whichever of the aforementioned hitters establishes himself this season.

Handedness probably doesn’t matter much, either. Just find the best hitter available in the team’s budget. They’re a little desperate, I would assume. If FanGraphs's projections are to be believed, we've probably collectively gotten a little too cute in our shopping lists. The best bat available will make a difference, regardless of handedness or position.

So, let’s broaden the scope of the hunt for an offseason addition. The elephant in the room is still payroll limitations. Despite the imposed hardships, it’s not unreasonable to assume the team could have somewhere between $5 million and $10 million to spend on a mid-sized addition—following the trades of at least two of Vázquez, Castro, and Chris Paddack, unrealized actions which have become Twins fan canon by now.

That constraint still prices out the biggest available bats, like Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander, and makes names like Jurickson Profar or Alex Verdugo unlikely. However, the Twins could feasibly take their pick of the litter below that, with this wide net. We’re not talking about sexy names, but after the recent signings of first basemen Carlos Santana, Josh Bell, and Paul Goldschmidt, the pool of true first basemen available in free agency had been whittled down to a group headlined by a collection of dudes old enough to form an unironic barbershop quartet: Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Canha, and Donovan Solano.

If the Twins choose to look at the expanded pool of “best bat available,” they can add hitters like outfielder Jesse Winker or infielders Jorge Polanco and Yoán Moncada to the mix. The belle of this expanded ball is probably DH-only J.D. Martinez, who has remained a valuable hitter into his late thirties.

These aren’t game-changing names. That goes without saying. At least one of them probably hurt your eyes when reading. But the Twins will be adding someone, and that someone will come down to a combination of who is available in their price range and who they see as a functional hitter. In the past two seasons, they have hit a couple of times on doing just that, choosing right with Solano and Santana.

One of the more frustrating aspects of this process, at least for fans, is that this addition could end up being late in the offseason, once whoever’s left’s asking prices are near the floor. But it’s better to choose from all hitters at that point, not limit oneself to a single position.

It’s been reported that the team is interested in adding through trade as well, which likely allows them to access better options than those in the free-agent pool at the expense of prospects. Many fans and writers at this very site have thrown out the name Yandy Díaz of the Rays as a potential first base trade target, as the Rays have indicated that they’re listening to offers for him. However, second baseman (and occasional first baseman) Brandon Lowe, the other player whom the Rays are actively open to moving, could also be a match for the team if they’re willing to shuffle things around.

Some have discussed a potential reunion with LaMonte Wade Jr., as the Giants have made the first baseman-outfielder available, but the club has also named Mike Yazstrzemski as a potential trade chip. If the Twins see him as an upgrade somewhere in the group of positions, then why not? Taylor Ward of the Angels and Alec Bohm of the Phillies also fall into this discussion, as neither seem to be full-time first basemen but could fit into the three-position group as valuable pieces.

Each potential target is slated to make $10 million or less in 2025, and could fill one of the three slots most ripe for improvement. It’s a pretty simple formula. Just get a hitter and figure out the alignment later. You have your shortstop and your center fielder, and the pitching staff doesn’t have a glaring hole (unless you count a lefty reliever). Just find a bat. Any bat will do.

Oh, and before you say it: yes, new ownership is also a simple way to improve the team. Beat you to it.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

You mention Royce Lewis is the 3b. I guess I've been thinking he'll be the 2b. Curious how that plays out.

But you are right, moves are coming, and they will have to add both to get to a full 40 man roster, as well as just set a floor at minimum.

Interesting next 6 weeks or so with the offseason to go. 

[Brandon]

I said this at the very beginning of the offseason.  I’ll say it again here and now.  Twins offseason:  trade Paddack for cost savings and a mid level prospect, sign pitching depth to minor league deals, trade Dobnak if possible, possibly sign a 1B maybe a backup RH OF.  I think Polanco could be resigned for a low cost and can play multiple positions of need if we don’t resign Santana.  End of offseason.  
 

What we really need next season is for our top talent to remain healthy for a change. 

[Greggory Masterson]

20 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You mention Royce Lewis is the 3b. I guess I've been thinking he'll be the 2b. Curious how that plays out.

But you are right, moves are coming, and they will have to add both to get to a full 40 man roster, as well as just set a floor at minimum.

Interesting next 6 weeks or so with the offseason to go. 

This is an additional wrinkle, but for this discussion I just focused on how FG divvied up the playing time, and they project Lewis to almost exclusively play third base.

 If you add in the Twins’ noncommittal approach with Lewis’s position, then these ideas carry even more weight because there’s potential playing time at either second or third.

[nicksaviking]

Sorry, but the second line is what should be sending up the red flags.

"The Twins have accomplished next-to nothing this offseason. Fortunately, at least according to FanGraphs, nearly any offensive addition would help."

That is obviously not true as we see just about 'any offensive addition' does in fact NOT help most years. Aside from the Carlos Santana outlier, only top end free agents have worked out here. Don't add some broken down vet just because FanGraphs has a minimally positive projection. 

And I have no problem trading Paddock or Vazquez, but why would you trade them both just to afford one of these names? I'd rather the team not do a damn thing and annoy us all with the inactivity this winter.

[Greggory Masterson]

1 minute ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

You mention a few players at the end of your article at 10mm each.  I doubt that would be doable as we are already over the self-imposed cap and may have difficulty in trading Paddock or Vasquez for that much incoming $ savings.  My guess is that they need to look for a first baseman who will pay us a mill or two to play.

I’m fairly confident that they could clear up all of Paddack and more than half of Vázquez. Also keep in mind that teams can send cash in trades to make the money work. Guys like Diaz  and Lowe might be it of their budget, but it’s at least mildly feasible 

[tony&rodney]

Put Emmanuel Rodriguez in left field.

Trevor Larnach can DH and play some outfield, maybe even a little first base from time to time. 

Move Royce Lewis to first base and let him mash with having to dive around as a 2B/3B player.

Third base goes to Brooks Lee. Perhaps he earns his name a little bit.

Second base? Well, see what happens between Willi Castro, Payton Eeles, Luke Keaschall, and Austin Martin.

Turns out Greggory Masterson was correct. This is easier than we were making it.

[bean5302]

Sure, it's as easy as the Twins pushing to a $150MM payroll. I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins do that, but I just don't see it happening. Falvey still hasn't moved ill-advised expenditure pieces like Paddack or Vazquez. That's low hanging fruit in terms of adding a bat which could help the team, but given Falvey's failures the past few years at moving assets he was expected to part with, this isn't surprising.

[IndianaTwin]

If Correa, Buxton and Lewis combine for Fangraph's 1714 projected plate appearances, I'll take my chances with the rest of the roster. 

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sure, it's as easy as the Twins pushing to a $150MM payroll. I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins do that, but I just don't see it happening. Falvey still hasn't moved ill-advised expenditure pieces like Paddack or Vazquez. That's low hanging fruit in terms of adding a bat which could help the team, but given Falvey's failures the past few years at moving assets he was expected to part with, this isn't surprising.

Falvey seems to struggle with this as you suggest. One wonders why. Do other POBO's or GM's read Falvey? I just don't understand the guy at all .... more bewildered than negative. I don't get his ideas.

[RpR]

With all this moaning and groaning, what shows up next Spring Training should liven up this place greatly.

[Mark G]

What I don't understand, is why we don't just contract Fan Graphs to run the FO and decide all the moves we make.  Sounds like a WS in the making.  😉

[Jocko87]

Profar is the model, at least pre 2024 Profar.

$1m signed in late February, had a great year.  We don't want anything do with paying him this year.  We don't want to pay $12m for Santana either. 

So what to do? Pick the best cheap veteran bat that kinda fits and make the kids beat him out.

Unfortunately, the kids haven't really made Solano or Santana sweat for at bats. 

Nothing really matters if the kids don't forcibly take the playing time.

[DocBauer]

First things first:

RUMORS:

1]Rumor has it teams have inquired about Paddack and he could be moved quickly. Problem is Falvey wants something of decent quality back and not just a cash dump.

2] Rumor has it Falvey and Joe Pohlad may be going to the rest of the family to ask for a budget increase...say $140M ish...to avoid any sort of pure salary dump or trading of a high profile type players and hurt the team as a whole.

Take those things as you will.

Lewis at 2B or 3B still creates a perceived "hole" according to Fangraphs. A healthy Lee fixes one of those holes. Yet again, he was good in ST, good at St Paul, good for 10-14 days before he hurt his shoulder. He'll play good defense wherever he's placed...depending on where they see the best fit for Lewis...and the question is "readiness". Was he bad just because he was hurt? Because he was a rookie? Both? If he's close to the HITTER he's projected to be, and can hit 30+ doubles and around 15-16 HR, he's a good ballplayer. He might be better than that in the long run, but I'd take that for 2025 in a heartbeat.

I'm a little puzzled by LF considering the good season Larnach had, including a good finish. Does Fangraphs just not like him? Or is LF just so stacked that they'd still be in the teens with Larnach? 

Also a little puzzled by the catcher spot. As bad as Vazquez was, and even though some of Jeffers production came at DH, they still combined for 28HR and 91 RBI. Not saying Jeffers doesn't need to find greater consistency, or that I wouldn't want to find a better bat than Vazquez, but even eliminating Jeffers DH production, they were still productive as a platoon in 2024.

1B is what it is barring a move. I'm not expecting greatness from Miranda. BUT, we've seen who he is when healthy. If he could play about 130 games there, I think 1B would be at least solid, if not pretty good.

NOT saying everything is rosie, just saying 3 of those spots may not be as bad as what is projected.

I'm uncertain the Twins would grab a full time DH. They might if the bat can make a difference. Especially with Castro as the 10th man, it's easy to make the DH spot a revolving door for a half day off for another position player. I'd be interested in JD Martinez as a primary DH, but not sure he moves the needle enough to take up that final spot. 

But I agree 100% that ONE good bat could lengthen the lineup and create more lineup/roster flexibility and depth. Diaz and Lowe would be excellent additions if a trade didn't hurt too much. And the contracts could fit IF Paddack and Vazquez were moved. I'd rather have that ONE bat vs nickel and dimeing for a couple lesser players.

But now you have to have a couple $M left for the best catcher you can still sign...maybe Elias Diaz for $2M...to work with Jeffers.

Paddack and a decent A level or rookie level prospect for a RHOF and Vazquez plus a similar prospect to clear his salary and you MIGHT have enough room for a veteran catcher and that ONE decent bat to add. 

But I think you're still looking at ownership approving a $135-140M payroll to get it done.

I really like the makeup and depth in the bullpen, but I shy away from Fangraphs #1 ranking, if for no reason than missing a proven, quality LH. And I like the rotation very much, and the young talent at St Paul, as long as they aren't pressed in to service too soon.

I like the options at LF and 2B more than Fangraphs. I'm mixed on C due to Jeffers and the unknown quantity to pair with him. I'd be surprised at a DH only based on how the Twins approach that spot, especially with Rodriguez and Keaschall waiting in the wings to add at some point in 2025.

But I do generally like most of the team as constructed already. Fangraphs and I agree with that, FWIW. I think the collapse last season and being "too close" in a collective eye towards the roster we sometimes don't give enough credit to the team we have. I think the more distant and neutral eye of someone like Fangraphs see the team in a different light.

[thelanges5]

That picture reminded me that I dislike Winker 👎🏻

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

FanGraphs projects Minnesota to have the best bullpen in baseball

Stopped reading at this point.

No, not really.  But this is an example of why I can't take FangRaphs seriously.  I know I am supposed to love their site, but I just can't.

Back to the actual article.  The 2025 Twins are not simply one mid-level free agent away.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

10 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

FanGraphs projects Minnesota to have the best bullpen in baseball

Would this be before the Twins trade Duran and move Jax to the rotation, or after? 🙂

[darin617]

There's no reason to dumpster dive yet. I would rather see them wait until the week or so before Spring Training and add some bargains. Unless they put up some money right now there's really no rush.

[Greggory Masterson]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Stopped reading at this point.

No, not really.  But this is an example of why I can't take FangRaphs seriously.  I know I am supposed to love their site, but I just can't.

Back to the actual article.  The 2025 Twins are not simply one mid-level free agent away.

Listen, I’m not gonna say they’re the best pen, If we can’t understand why their December projections like a bullpen with 2 top 12-15 relievers in baseball, several setup caliber arms, and no abject disasters in their top 8, I think we’ve lost the point. Also other pens will catch up as FAs are added.

As for the second point, I’m glad I didn’t write that one. I’d have some ‘splainin to do 

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Listen, I’m not gonna say they’re the best pen, If we can’t understand why their December projections like a bullpen with 2 top 12-15 relievers in baseball, several setup caliber arms, and no abject disasters in their top 8, I think we’ve lost the point. Also other pens will catch up as FAs are added.

As for the second point, I’m glad I didn’t write that one. I’d have some ‘splainin to do 

What I read was "just find the best hitter available in the team’s budget."  The team has no budget to speak of.  I don't know who we could sign or trade for.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Greggory Masterson said:

with 2 top 12-15 relievers in baseball

Well, there are probably a half dozen better relief pitchers in the AL Central alone.

I’m not sure why you writers on this site can’t just say something like, “our guys are pretty good” and be happy with that. At least we can agree on that. Instead of always needing to put Twins guys on pedestals or include them on an imaginary Greatest Players lists.

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, darin617 said:

There's no reason to dumpster dive yet. I would rather see them wait until the week or so before Spring Training and add some bargains. Unless they put up some money right now there's really no rush.

There is just not any money to allow for bargains for a 40 man roster spot   ...

They'll continue to add minor league contracts like they always have  , nothing substantial ...

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Blyleven2011 said:

There is just not any money to allow for bargains for a 40 man roster spot   ...

They'll continue to add minor league contracts like they always have  , nothing substantial ...

This is why trades are so crucial to half the teams in MLB. Unless the Twins are fully content with their current roster, which is actually possible, then some deals need to be completed. Transactions can be difficult and risky, yet remain a path to filling needs.

[Doctor Wu]

These aren’t game-changing names. That goes without saying. 

If that's the case, there isn't much need to try and sign most of these guys, no matter how affordable they may appear. I'm more inclined to try out some of our prospects at this point, but I'd still like to find a first baseman that can field well, similar to what we got from Santana last season.

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

This is an additional wrinkle, but for this discussion I just focused on how FG divvied up the playing time, and they project Lewis to almost exclusively play third base.

 If you add in the Twins’ noncommittal approach with Lewis’s position, then these ideas carry even more weight because there’s potential playing time at either second or third.

I'm not sure I'd put a guy who has spent most of his career looking like he's made of glass at a position where guys are going to be barrelling into him on double plays two or three times a game.

[Doctor Gast]

Many teams & some are very competitive teams have done basically nothing in FA. PHI major addition is Kepler paying him what we paid for him last offseason. ATL only signed a couple of minor split contracts, CLE has been praised for signing Santana after trading away slugging 1Bman Josh Naylor to save about $2M. I'd take 1 yr. of Naylor over 1yr. of Santana any day. I may seem like a broken record. There seems like a ton of pressure to dip into FA, if you don't you're a loser. But smart teams that in our situation try to avoid FA. 

We should have built on the core we had from '23 last season but we didn't & the moves we made then made us weaker. We still have most of the core intact & I agree with you Gregg that it shouldn't be hard to make us into a competitive playoff team. Last offseason Twins focused on a lot of fringe RPs that never panned out. But when we needed a high-leverage LHRP they balked (we still need one). We also needed a viable SP, they got broken down 5th SP. To be a viable contender we need to be strong up the middle- SS good, CF very good, 2B better w/o Julien, catcher?. Catching is our weak point, If we dial back Jeffers to weak-side tandem, Vazquez as our bandage we can be slightly above average & serviceable. BUT what others are proposing of trading Vazquez thus thrusting Jeffers into primary catcher duty with poor backup will spell disaster much like '22. We absolutely need a future tandem of promising young MLB-ready catchers to be mentored so that in the future when we need to rip off the bandaid (Vazquez) they can step up & take over.

I have a lot of trust in Keirsey to step up & be a very competent backup in CF & will surprise us with his offense. The Emma will be up before you know it. Miranda will finally get his chance to stay relatively healthy & mash at 1B. A quality RH platoon bat at 1B/RF would be nice but obtaining a bunch of fringe replacement players for 1B/ C & throwing them at the wall to see if any stick isn't a very good strategy. This offseason can be simple if they don't be creative with the core, stay out of FA & fill needed holes via trade. But this wait & see approach makes it more difficult.

[LambchoP]

I think they need to hurry up and trade Paddack since they already have offers. Then do what we can to dump Vasquez'. That should give us enough money to trade for a decent first baseman. Yandy Diaz or Alec Bohm would be great. I've also heard rumors about MountCastle from the Orioles. If we can't pull the trigger on those, maybe Donovan Solano could be a backup plan. Good hitter with good on base skills. No power, but he should be cheap which might leave us enough money leftover to sign a 4rth outfielder or more importantly imo, a lefty reliever. One things for sure, they need to do something and soon.

[Greggory Masterson]

8 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Well, there are probably a half dozen better relief pitchers in the AL Central alone.

I’m not sure why you writers on this site can’t just say something like, “our guys are pretty good” and be happy with that.

I'm not one to sit here and gas up Twins. Nearly every list that has come out so far (it's still early) have both Jax and Duran in the top 10 ahead of 2024. Steamer has them both in the top 8. That doesn't mean they'll finish the year as top-10 relievers, but there absolutely are not 6 other relievers in the Central who are better than Jax and Duran. I'll give you Clase, and I'll listen to arguments about Cade Smith. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Many teams & some are very competitive teams have done basically nothing in FA. PHI major addition is Kepler paying him what we paid for him last offseason. ATL only signed a couple of minor split contracts, CLE has been praised for signing Santana after trading away slugging 1Bman Josh Naylor to save about $2M. I'd take 1 yr. of Naylor over 1yr. of Santana any day. I may seem like a broken record. There seems like a ton of pressure to dip into FA, if you don't you're a loser. But smart teams that in our situation try to avoid FA. 

We should have built on the core we had from '23 last season but we didn't & the moves we made then made us weaker. We still have most of the core intact & I agree with you Gregg that it shouldn't be hard to make us into a competitive playoff team. Last offseason Twins focused on a lot of fringe RPs that never panned out. But when we needed a high-leverage LHRP they balked (we still need one). We also needed a viable SP, they got broken down 5th SP. To be a viable contender we need to be strong up the middle- SS good, CF very good, 2B better w/o Julien, catcher?. Catching is our weak point, If we dial back Jeffers to weak-side tandem, Vazquez as our bandage we can be slightly above average & serviceable. BUT what others are proposing of trading Vazquez thus thrusting Jeffers into primary catcher duty with poor backup will spell disaster much like '22. We absolutely need a future tandem of promising young MLB-ready catchers to be mentored so that in the future when we need to rip off the bandaid (Vazquez) they can step up & take over.

I have a lot of trust in Keirsey to step up & be a very competent backup in CF & will surprise us with his offense. The Emma will be up before you know it. Miranda will finally get his chance to stay relatively healthy & mash at 1B. A quality RH platoon bat at 1B/RF would be nice but obtaining a bunch of fringe replacement players for 1B/ C & throwing them at the wall to see if any stick isn't a very good strategy. This offseason can be simple if they don't be creative with the core, stay out of FA & fill needed holes via trade. But this wait & see approach makes it more difficult.

I'm sure Cleveland traded  Bo Naylor  because he is a free agent at end of 2025 , they pulled a Tampa Bay and got prospects back ...

Signing santana at 12 million was a head scratcher ( 7 million dollar raise roughly ) unless Cleveland  really needed that gold glove ...

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is why trades are so crucial to half the teams in MLB. Unless the Twins are fully content with their current roster, which is actually possible, then some deals need to be completed. Transactions can be difficult and risky, yet remain a path to filling needs.

A trade for a "final piece" can be a great move but historically teams are not built on trades for impact players.  The top 30 teams (measured by most wins) since 2000 among teams in the bottom half of revenue have not been built this way.  Trades for established players have represented 11% of WAR.  Players acquired as prospects represented 30% of WAR across the best 30 teams constructed since 2000..