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The Minnesota Twins are a good team—at least on paper. FanGraphs runs projections over the offseason, and currently, the Twins rank seventh among all MLB teams in projected wins above replacement. It’s not a perfect system—baseball is played on the field, not a spreadsheet; they project Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa to play close to full seasons; plenty of remaining free agents can tilt the scales when they sign with other teams.
But it is a nice tool to use when evaluating a team against the rest of the league, at least in terms of present talent level. "Present" is doing a lot of work for the Twins who, by all accounts, won’t be making many moves this offseason due to payroll constraints, while their rivals with more spending power add to their squads.
FanGraphs projects Minnesota to have the best bullpen in baseball and sixth-best rotation, combining for the third-best pitching staff. They rank in the top 10 in projected performance at shortstop, third base, center field, and right field. Their second base group is seen as middle-of-the-pack. Their catcher, first base, left field, and designated hitter spots are all in the late teens.
Catcher is going to be what it’s going to be. There will likely be some sort of mix of Ryan Jeffers (if not traded), Christian Vázquez (if not traded), Jair Camargo, new addition Mickey Gasper, or a low-tier veteran free agent. But the other three spots are somewhat peculiar.
Whether you buy into the projections and methodologies used or not, the system can identify spots most open to improvement, and when your three lowest spots are left field, first base, and designated hitter, hoo boy, the mind starts running. These three positions are lowest on the defensive spectrum, meaning that there’s a higher offensive bar to clear to be an average or better hitter, but having a need at a combination of the areas opens a door so big even my inflated head could fit through it.
Those three spots being the teams’ positions of need means anyone can fill that hole. Right now, Fangraphs projects some combination of Trevor Larnach, José Miranda, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, and Luke Keaschall to fill those three spots. That group has a high ceiling but a low floor, given the question marks around each player.
Any bat will do. The team isn’t looking for, say, a third baseman; that’s Royce Lewis’s spot. They just need some sort of bat. There’s been some hemming and hawing about finding a first baseman specifically, but they probably don’t even have to do that. If they find an outfielder with enough thump, they can easily make room for him in left field and at DH without sacrificing whichever of the aforementioned hitters establishes himself this season.
Handedness probably doesn’t matter much, either. Just find the best hitter available in the team’s budget. They’re a little desperate, I would assume. If FanGraphs's projections are to be believed, we've probably collectively gotten a little too cute in our shopping lists. The best bat available will make a difference, regardless of handedness or position.
So, let’s broaden the scope of the hunt for an offseason addition. The elephant in the room is still payroll limitations. Despite the imposed hardships, it’s not unreasonable to assume the team could have somewhere between $5 million and $10 million to spend on a mid-sized addition—following the trades of at least two of Vázquez, Castro, and Chris Paddack, unrealized actions which have become Twins fan canon by now.
That constraint still prices out the biggest available bats, like Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander, and makes names like Jurickson Profar or Alex Verdugo unlikely. However, the Twins could feasibly take their pick of the litter below that, with this wide net. We’re not talking about sexy names, but after the recent signings of first basemen Carlos Santana, Josh Bell, and Paul Goldschmidt, the pool of true first basemen available in free agency had been whittled down to a group headlined by a collection of dudes old enough to form an unironic barbershop quartet: Justin Turner, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Canha, and Donovan Solano.
If the Twins choose to look at the expanded pool of “best bat available,” they can add hitters like outfielder Jesse Winker or infielders Jorge Polanco and Yoán Moncada to the mix. The belle of this expanded ball is probably DH-only J.D. Martinez, who has remained a valuable hitter into his late thirties.
These aren’t game-changing names. That goes without saying. At least one of them probably hurt your eyes when reading. But the Twins will be adding someone, and that someone will come down to a combination of who is available in their price range and who they see as a functional hitter. In the past two seasons, they have hit a couple of times on doing just that, choosing right with Solano and Santana.
One of the more frustrating aspects of this process, at least for fans, is that this addition could end up being late in the offseason, once whoever’s left’s asking prices are near the floor. But it’s better to choose from all hitters at that point, not limit oneself to a single position.
It’s been reported that the team is interested in adding through trade as well, which likely allows them to access better options than those in the free-agent pool at the expense of prospects. Many fans and writers at this very site have thrown out the name Yandy Díaz of the Rays as a potential first base trade target, as the Rays have indicated that they’re listening to offers for him. However, second baseman (and occasional first baseman) Brandon Lowe, the other player whom the Rays are actively open to moving, could also be a match for the team if they’re willing to shuffle things around.
Some have discussed a potential reunion with LaMonte Wade Jr., as the Giants have made the first baseman-outfielder available, but the club has also named Mike Yazstrzemski as a potential trade chip. If the Twins see him as an upgrade somewhere in the group of positions, then why not? Taylor Ward of the Angels and Alec Bohm of the Phillies also fall into this discussion, as neither seem to be full-time first basemen but could fit into the three-position group as valuable pieces.
Each potential target is slated to make $10 million or less in 2025, and could fill one of the three slots most ripe for improvement. It’s a pretty simple formula. Just get a hitter and figure out the alignment later. You have your shortstop and your center fielder, and the pitching staff doesn’t have a glaring hole (unless you count a lefty reliever). Just find a bat. Any bat will do.
Oh, and before you say it: yes, new ownership is also a simple way to improve the team. Beat you to it.
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