The Twins Should Trade for This Former Gold Glover

[Matthew Lenz]

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to cut payroll and have a super-utility player who is cheaper, more controllable, and arguably an upgrade over Willi Castro. While the Twins aren’t looking to cut payroll, acquiring this former Gold Glove winner could help fill plenty of holes and give the team more club control to boot.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The Cardinals are already waving the white towel for the 2025 season, and look poised to sell off a lot of big names to rebuild their farm system. Big names already mentioned in swirling rumors include Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Sonny Gray, among others. But super-utility player Brendan Donovan could provide a very good return, too. He’s relatively cheap, entering his first year of arbitration (where Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects him to get $4 million), but he might still be available as the Cards undertake a broad-scale reshuffling. Let’s take a look at what the 28-year-old brings to the table, and how he could help the Twins.

Donovan just completed his third season and has a career slash line of .280/.364/.407, with 30 home runs and 12 stolen bases in just under 1,500 plate appearances. He boasts an absurdly low strikeout rate, thanks to impressive bat control that makes up for below-average bat speed and hard-hit rates. To wit, he has a 77th-percentile launch angle sweet-spot rate, despite a 24th-percentile barrel rate. He overcame a low walk rate by posting elite zone contact, chase, and whiff rates, which led to him batting in key positions in the Cardinals lineup.

A left-handed hitter, Donovan has traditional splits at the plate, performing better against right-handed pitching and typically batting leadoff when St. Louis faces a righty starter. That said, with a career 94 wRC+ against lefties, he’s more than serviceable against southpaws and typically found himself batting in the middle third of the order when they were on the mound. While he seems to flourish a little lower in the order, he carried a .702 OPS out of the leadoff spot against right-handed pitching in 2024. As a reference, the Twins as a team had a .662 OPS in similar circumstances in 2024, with a strikeout rate 10 percentage points higher than Donovan’s. Overall, the former 7th-round pick’s 2024 offensive production was arguably better than that of any Twins player, and his consistency would have been valuable in an offense that had the third-most variance in runs scored per game in all of baseball. But, wait…there’s more!

Like Willi Castro, Donovan was a 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Finalist as a utility player, but lost out to Jared Triolo of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Last season, Donovan played three different positions (primarily second base and left field) across 153 games, but is only a season removed from contributing at six different positions. Throughout his career, Donovan has graded out as a plus defender at third base and both corner outfield spots, a slightly below-average defender at the keystone, and firmly below average at first base and shortstop. Specifically in 2024, he posted career bests at second with a 1.7 UZR/150, five outs above average (OOA), and 3% success rate added.

As I mentioned, Donovan is a plus defender at both corner outfield spots and could be an overall upgrade over Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach at this point in their careers. He does profile similarly to the two incumbent Twins, as lefties with traditional splits, and doesn’t have the arm strength that Wallner showcases, but his versatility would allow Rocco Baldelli to play to his players' strengths—as Larnach, in particular, has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. Alas, Donovan has never played an inning in center field, so the Twins would have to rely on Austin Martin or DeShawn Kiersey Jr. to spell Byron Buxton in the event of an injury.

I’m not going to get into what it would cost to add Donovan, as I never feel confident in trying to predict that type of stuff, but given his production and team control it’s going to be something significant. Maybe the team could draw from its second tier of rising pitching prospects; the Cardinals are hungry for young hurlers with more upside than their current group. Regardless, Donovan's versatility is a perfect match with the philosophy of this organization, and his consistency would be a welcome sight to a rollercoaster offense. Given the financial constraints the front office faces, giving up distant prospects for cheap, major league-ready production is essential to being successful. Trading for Donovan would probably mean moving on from Castro, but getting extra team control, a few more dollars to spend, and a bit more stability in the bargain.

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Are you interested in Brendan Donovan? What would you give up to get him?

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[Blyleven2011]

Sounds like a good fit for the twins  , 

Trade castro for trade depth pieces ...

Your logic is sound ...

[bean5302]

Baseballtradevalues has Brendan Donovan at +25MM surplus. Probably in the ballpark of Brooks Lee, a little above a guy like Luke Keaschall.

I don't like trading premium prospects for $2MM in savings.

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Baseballtradevalues has Brendan Donovan at +25MM surplus. Probably in the ballpark of Brooks Lee, a little above a guy like Luke Keaschall.

I don't like trading premium prospects for $2MM in savings.

Or more young left handed hitters that will always be platooned.

[Brandon27]

These team needs right handed power hitter and everyday DH

[DocBauer]

A smart idea. I can get behind this. I'd rather keep Castro and add Donovan but there wouldn't be financial room for both. I'd be more excited if Donovan played a little better 3B or 1B, though to be fair he's only played 46 and 30 games at those two spots, not all of them starts. 

He's probably a more consistent hitter than Castro and appears to have a little more power. Presumably he's better than Castro defensively in both corner OF spots. However, Castro would appear to have more speed and can play at least a decent CF and SS making him more versatile in the field. 

If they're both 27yo and the $ savings would only be around $2M, and we wouldn't have to trade any prospects, aren't the Twin better off just keeping Castro?

[theBOMisthebomb]

It's going to be a long winter. Only 97 days, 22 hours until spring training begins per https://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/

"Countdown is currently based on pitchers and catchers reporting on February 12, 2025.

The countdown will be adjusted as opening dates are announced".

[HoskenPowell]

You simply CANNOT say "to spell Buxton"

NO way , No how and never in hell can you count on Buxton to play the majority of games in CF

 

Too many years of being hurt for far too long to count on him.

 

They need a good CF besides him.   Period.

He's not a young player anymore and only twice has he been what one would call a regular.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you Matt, that Donovan is a very good utility player. But I'd prefer Castro because he's better at SS & CF, giving us even more flexibility & better team chemistry. IMO he won't be available. To quote you.

"Trading for Donovan would probably mean moving on from Castro, but getting extra team control, a few more dollars to spend,"

I wrote a blog here about how to create a successful team by emulating other successful teams. All those teams I mentioned had some common characteristics, and they were very good player evaluation and development together with the ability to pull off needed trades without being dependent on FA. The team I wanted to emulate the most was mid-market team ATL because they focused on extending key players to keep the core and chemistry intact to maintain continuity and success.

I would like to add that there is a team that I don't want to emulate, and that is the Colorado Rockies.  They are terrible in player evaluation & development, terrible in managing their money by overpaying FAs especially bad ones & great players like Arenado & Marquez. They had a great season with their core but the following seasons, although they had spent a ton of money, they had no money at all to spend & had nobody to trade so they did nothing in the offseason. Arenado was a very rich dude now but he wasn't happy, because the team wasn't getting any better & he became disgruntled. Then the dismantling of the core began & although they didn't rebuild their team, their team plummeted. The dispersed core never achieved their former glory. 

Bad at player evaluation & development, frivolously spending their allotted money, bad trades, not filling important holes therefore making the team weaker instead of better, dismantling of their core, beginning of disgruntle players, does that sound familiar? Our problem isn't the core, we have players & prospects we can trade, trading needed players isn't the answer. Quit trying to emulate CO & try to be more like ATL. 

[rv78]

I would only be on board with him if the Twins found a way to keep Castro as well so they have their backup still on board for SS and CF. Donovan could be a Farmer replacement. I'd consider trading Julien for him and give Donovan the reins at 2nd base if Lee isn't going to be the starter there on opening day.. Unfortunately that trade doesn't free up payroll and only adds to it. Maybe they'd take a Paddack with Julien and the Cards could flip Paddack to another team for another prospect. 

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you Matt, that Donovan is a very good utility player. But I'd prefer Castro because he's better at SS & CF, giving us even more flexibility & better team chemistry. IMO he won't be available. To quote you.

"Trading for Donovan would probably mean moving on from Castro, but getting extra team control, a few more dollars to spend,"

I wrote a blog here about how to create a successful team by emulating other successful teams. All those teams I mentioned had some common characteristics, and they were very good player evaluation and development together with the ability to pull off needed trades without being dependent on FA. The team I wanted to emulate the most was mid-market team ATL because they focused on extending key players to keep the core and chemistry intact to maintain continuity and success.

I would like to add that there is a team that I don't want to emulate, and that is the Colorado Rockies.  They are terrible in player evaluation & development, terrible in managing their money by overpaying FAs especially bad ones & great players like Arenado & Marquez. They had a great season with their core but the following seasons, although they had spent a ton of money, they had no money at all to spend & had nobody to trade so they did nothing in the offseason. Arenado was a very rich dude now but he wasn't happy, because the team wasn't getting any better & he became disgruntled. Then the dismantling of the core began & although they didn't rebuild their team, their team plummeted. The dispersed core never achieved their former glory. 

Bad at player evaluation & development, frivolously spending their allotted money, bad trades, not filling important holes therefore making the team weaker instead of better, dismantling of their core, beginning of disgruntle players, does that sound familiar? Our problem isn't the core, dismantling needed players isn't the answer. Quit trying to emulate CO & try to be more like ATL. 

I really like what Atlanta is done too but they are not a mid-market team.  Atlanta is the 10th largest city in the US and the Braves are top 5 in revenue.  Mid-market (average revenue or below) teams can't emulate their spending.  What successful team(s) with the equivalent of the Twin's revenue would you emulate.

[mluebker]

Castro is a solid utility guy. So rolling the dice on a possible upgrade there would be way down on my list of priorities.

Instead, how about finding a full time center fielder and shortstop and seriously think about less physically demanding places where Buxton and Correa could play, that will put them at less risk for injury?

When they’re healthy (and every conversation about them includes that phrase), they’re outstanding defenders and essential offense. The Twins need them on the field and in the lineup every day.

If they stay in their current positions—two of the most physically demanding spots that don’t involve a mound or crouching behind home plate—the injuries will keep on coming and the time they spend on the IL will keep increasing, especially as they get older.

Both have expensive long-term contracts with no-trade clauses. The Twins need them out there as often as possible.

If that means having great defense in LF instead of center, why not?—especially if it puts less strain on Buxton’s fragile hip and knee. If that means putting Correa at 3B or 1B so he’s not pounding the daylights out of his plantar fasciitis every day, but still contributing on the field, that sounds good to me.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

It's going to be a long winter. Only 97 days, 22 hours until spring training begins per https://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/

"Countdown is currently based on pitchers and catchers reporting on February 12, 2025.

The countdown will be adjusted as opening dates are announced".

So about 80 days until the Twins start making their offseason moves.

[Doctor Gast]

17 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I really like what Atlanta is done too but they are not a mid-market team.  Atlanta is the 10th largest city in the US and the Braves are top 5 in revenue.  Mid-market (average revenue or below) teams can't emulate their spending.  What successful team(s) with the equivalent of the Twin's revenue would you emulate.

Very good point ML Ready. TB & CLE are smaller market are good models but I'd like to extend our players much more than they do. The Twins won't be able to compete with ATL that's understood as far as the ability to extend players. Granted that ATL is a larger market (where does MSP fit in?), my point is not to focus our money on FA but to extend our own key players.

[LambchoP]

I'd say pass. We don't need another 2nd and 3rd base option, we need a RH outfielder. Looks like he profiles just like Larnach and Wallner. We need a speedy gold glove caliber CF, preferably RH. If we do go after an infielder it should be a first baseman with some pop. We have tons of options for 2nd base already. Lee, Julien, Castro, Martin, Eeles and Keaschal.

[Trov]

If the option was Castro or Donovan, everything being equal, you make a sound argument as to why Donovan or Castro.  However, they are not equal.  Mainly, we have Castro and can keep him for the money spent, but to get Donovan we would need to trade for him, giving up prospects.  Now, if we trade for him first, maybe we can save on some of the prospects we send out, but then when we shop Castro we are clearly looking to sell, and will not get as good of a return most likely.  If we trade Castro first, maybe we get better prospects in return but then will be a position of having to give up more to get Donovan. 

Point is, to shuffle the two around we will need to shuffle prospects around as well, which may not work out well long term. This is basically, make moves to make moves. 

[Otaknam]

If Donovan hit right handed this might make sense. They don’t end another left handed hitter, even if his defense is an upgrade over Larnach and Wallner. And I wouldn’t trade a good infield prospect like the right handed hitting Keaschall  for a utility player. Also, I wouldn’t trade starter prospects either for a utility player. Keeping Castro at a slightly higher price and keeping your prospect makes more sense. But who know what ownership will dictate this offseason.

[jmlease1]

34 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

If Donovan hit right handed this might make sense. They don’t end another left handed hitter, even if his defense is an upgrade over Larnach and Wallner. And I wouldn’t trade a good infield prospect like the right handed hitting Keaschall  for a utility player. Also, I wouldn’t trade starter prospects either for a utility player. Keeping Castro at a slightly higher price and keeping your prospect makes more sense. But who know what ownership will dictate this offseason.

Agreed.

Donovan is a useful player, but I don't see him as being a particularly good fit for the Twins. He put up fine defensive stats in his rookie season as a utility guy, but wasn't impressive as a 2B/LF. He's a good hitter, but while he might be aesthetically more pleasing than Wallner, he seems unlikely to be better at the plate in terms of production. (Wallner and Donovan have had nearly identical bWAR over the past 2 seasons combined...but that's a counting stat and Donovan has gotten a lot more opportunity) If he were a RH hitter, this might be interesting but as is we'd essentially be swapping in a less flexible super-utility guy who is a more consistent hitter.

It doesn't make them younger, it doesn't solve the need for improved RH thump, and it might not really improve them defensively...it just might make them a little cheaper if they deal Castro well? 

Considering what they might need to give up, I'm unenthusiastic. Based on last season does Donovan look like a significant upgrade on Larnach in LF? because that's what we might be landing on here, and even while dealing with a turf toe issue Larnach was decent.

Pass.

[PatPfund]

I get it... But if this team is going to compete next year (and in the future) on a limited budget, they can't trade prospects for a utility player (especially one they can only afford for a year at most). They need to sign (arbitration or otherwise) and trade Castro. Then they need to count on their own young (and cheap) alternatives for position players, because that is where their organizational strength is. That means Julien, Miranda, Lee, Martin (who is a RH hitting OF), Wallner, Larnach, and so-to-be helpers from St Paul (Camargo if they can unload Vasquez, Keirsey, E Rodriguez, Keaschall, and maybe even Jenkins later on).

Rather than waste money on more nearly done position vets, they need to pool some money for at least one solid (not washed up) starting pitcher who will give them a lot of steady innings. Someone like Lorenzen (who signed last year for peanuts). Maybe two of those, because starting pitching (not hitting) is where we are short with limited help on the way. Then you can convert Varland and Paddack to the bullpen for instant high-leverage arms (if you can't trade Paddack).

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Very good point ML Ready. TB & CLE are smaller market are good models but I'd like to extend our players much more than they do. The Twins won't be able to compete with ATL that's understood as far as the ability to extend players. Granted that ATL is a larger market (where does MSP fit in?), my point is not to focus our money on FA but to extend our own key players.

IDK that they are less willing to extend but they have not had the players to extend where Atlanta produced great extension candidates.  They did extend Kepler/Polanco and Sano.  I am 100% with you on the value of extending players.  Just look at the value per $ of Jose Rameriz vs Carlos Correa or even Buxton.  I am hoping Jenkins / E. Rameriz and Keaschall become great extension candidates.  None of the current young guys look like great candidates with the possible exception of Lewis.

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you Matt, that Donovan is a very good utility player. But I'd prefer Castro because he's better at SS & CF, giving us even more flexibility & better team chemistry. IMO he won't be available. To quote you.

"Trading for Donovan would probably mean moving on from Castro, but getting extra team control, a few more dollars to spend,"

I wrote a blog here about how to create a successful team by emulating other successful teams. All those teams I mentioned had some common characteristics, and they were very good player evaluation and development together with the ability to pull off needed trades without being dependent on FA. The team I wanted to emulate the most was mid-market team ATL because they focused on extending key players to keep the core and chemistry intact to maintain continuity and success.

I would like to add that there is a team that I don't want to emulate, and that is the Colorado Rockies.  They are terrible in player evaluation & development, terrible in managing their money by overpaying FAs especially bad ones & great players like Arenado & Marquez. They had a great season with their core but the following seasons, although they had spent a ton of money, they had no money at all to spend & had nobody to trade so they did nothing in the offseason. Arenado was a very rich dude now but he wasn't happy, because the team wasn't getting any better & he became disgruntled. Then the dismantling of the core began & although they didn't rebuild their team, their team plummeted. The dispersed core never achieved their former glory. 

Bad at player evaluation & development, frivolously spending their allotted money, bad trades, not filling important holes therefore making the team weaker instead of better, dismantling of their core, beginning of disgruntle players, does that sound familiar? Our problem isn't the core, we have players & prospects we can trade, trading needed players isn't the answer. Quit trying to emulate CO & try to be more like ATL. 

I don't

mind emulating Atlanta, but let's not refer to them as mid

market team.  They are the 6th largest metro in the US

[gman]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

So about 80 days until the Twins start making their offseason moves.

Why so soon this year?

[gman]

21 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I'd say pass. We don't need another 2nd and 3rd base option, we need a RH outfielder. Looks like he profiles just like Larnach and Wallner. We need a speedy gold glove caliber CF, preferably RH. If we do go after an infielder it should be a first baseman with some pop. We have tons of options for 2nd base already. Lee, Julien, Castro, Martin, Eeles and Keaschal.

With the six guys you pointed out as second base options, I would not have considered moving Lewis there. I might however, find. a real good third base specialist to coach him on the position and leave lewis there. Probably find a throwing instructor also.

Maybe Keaschal can get some time in the outfield at St Paul early next year and be that right handed bat by June. He also played some first base.

[purplesoldier4u]

On 11/6/2024 at 8:16 AM, Major League Ready said:

I really like what Atlanta is done too but they are not a mid-market team.  Atlanta is the 10th largest city in the US and the Braves are top 5 in revenue.  Mid-market (average revenue or below) teams can't emulate their spending.  What successful team(s) with the equivalent of the Twin's revenue would you emulate.

Cleveland? Detroit? San Diego?

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Cleveland? Detroit? San Diego?

Cleveland has had far more 90 wins seasons than the other two.  Detroit has managed only 4 in the past 2 decades.  SanDiego has had some success recently but has been one of the poorest performing teams in the league over the last 20 years.  They better in the next couple years because they are definitely not set-up for any sustained success.  They have one of the worst farm systems in MLB and they are going to have a lot of dead weight going forward.  Machado's salary goes from $17M this year to $25 next year and then 7 more years at 37M in his age 34-40 seasons.  Darvish is 38 next year.  They are paying Bogaerts through age 40.  Profar and Arrez to free agency and Kim after next year.   I would bet the Twins have substantially more success than the Padres over the next 5-10 years.