Offseason Status Update: The Long Winter Begins

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Why would TX trade a hitter entering his prime for often injured not all that effective starter Paddock?

Because he's 4th (or lower) on their depth chart, getting expensive and his prime doesn't look to be anything special. The Rangers will lose most of their rotation from last season (Eovaldi, Scherzer, Heaney, Dunning) and they will probably trade Jon Gray.

[howeda7]

Given the $130 m budget, I'd decline arbitration on both Castro and Topa and figure on eating half of Paddock and Vazquez's contracts in order to dump them. That nets to about $13 million to spend. Enough for a cheap 1B option ($6 m) a lefty reliever ($3 m) and a cheap 5th starter ($4 m)

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, gmwannabe said:

Castro for Rushing saves 6.5 million to aquire Mountcastle for 1st base (for Matthew's or Raya) and nets a top MLB ready catcher, solidifying 2 positions of need. Now I trade Lopez to the Bosox for center fielder Duran and move Buxton to LF and trade Vasquez to the Astros for 5 million cash saving 5 million. Now you have 25 million to spend on pitching if the Pohlads don't pocket it!

 

Zero chance the dodgers do this. Zero. 

[Mike Sixel]

If they deal Lopez, which I'm against, I want Teel and another top prospect from Boston. 

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

I don't think people in the org would tell you they feel confident in Miranda's glove at 1B, outside of the occasional spot start or maybe as the RH in a platoon role. 

But you also listed Severino as a possible option. He was on the 40 man roster and STILL didn't get called up to the Twins. And Diego Castillo did get called up to take some AB's and play a little 3B when . So I would say the Twins have even less confidence in Severino than Miranda.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Given the $130 m budget, I'd decline arbitration on both Castro and Topa and figure on eating half of Paddock and Vazquez's contracts in order to dump them. That nets to about $13 million to spend. Enough for a cheap 1B option ($6 m) a lefty reliever ($3 m) and a cheap 5th starter ($4 m)

You have no utility infielder, no 2nd catcher, a gaping hole at 2B, two first basemen and a 5th starter very likely to be worse than Festa because nobody else in MLB wants to use him a starting pitcher. Plus, you threw away Topa and Castro instead of trading them. What was the point of all that?

[SF Twins Fan]

How many more years is Dobnaks contract?

[rv78]

First thing I'd do is ask Correa and Buxton which clubs they would waive their no trade clauses for. Second, I'd get on the phone 1 minute later and start negotiating with those clubs to see what I could get in return. This team is never going to go anywhere expecting 2 players that are either injured or performing under their abilities due to injury, to lead them to anything but disappointment. It hasn't happened in the last 3 years and it isn't going to happen going forward. Wake up Twins fans. Using young players via platoon per Rocco's management style and adding in washed up veterans has been tried enough. Is there anyone who really thinks Falvey is going to bring in players talented enough to make the changes needed if he has to work around the Correa, Buxton and Lopez contracts? Trying to do just that will only be a rinse and repeat of the last few seasons that have gotten this club little or nothing to be proud of or make fans happy about. If I can trade those 2 away along with Paddack, I've got $60M to spend on quality difference makers instead of $10 or $15M to spend on the same junk we've seen the last few off-seasons. Do we really want just more of the same or do we want to actually try something different that might lead to something better than what we've had and seen?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

In 2023, Miranda was injured and couldn't hit the ball even in AAA. He started the season as the team's primary 3B.

If they hate his glove so much, why has he had so many starts at 3B? That's a more difficult position defensively. It doesn't make any sense to say, "We don't trust this guy to play 1B, let's play him at a more difficult position instead". He didn't start at 1B much last year because Lewis was hurt, and Santana wasn't.

Because Lewis and Correa missed massive amounts of time? Julien was getting regular time in the field while he was a viable offensive option, that doesn't mean his defense was adequate. 

[SteveLV]

Mike Sixel and rv78 see it the same way I do.  The Twins under their owner-imposed salary cap cannot afford to have Correa and Buxton on the roster.  If they can be traded, you have to do it.

I don't want to trade Lopez, but he is a very valuable piece.  If Teel is your target from Boston, they have a number of other good prospects that could also potentially be gathered up.

If you clear out Correa, Buxton, Lopez, Paddack and Vasquez, you essentially have a clean slate and can concentrate on the young guys.  Payroll would drop to about $45-50M.

I would actually find this a more interesting and fun team to watch play than the "almost good enough" squad they are currently rostering.  This team as constituted is non-competitive against good teams.  We were below .500 if we take out the White Sox last year, and there is not a whole lot of hope they will improve next year, with the exception of potentially more games from Correa.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins priorities are all screwed up. They are all twisted around worried about defense at 1B & don't give a s**t about the defense at catcher. Beyond Vazquez & Jeffers (& I'm concerned about Jeffers) we have nothing regarding catchers. Falvey has been darn lucky that neither of them has been hurt especially Vazquez. I don't get the talk about trading Vazquez. Because defense is imperative at catching, Vazquez's handling the pitchers, blocking, receiving, framing, throwing out runners & leadership, how can they even consider throwing that out the window? Yes, Falvey paid Vazquez like Dobnak too much & like Dobnak they have to eat it because we can't do it w/o Vazquez. We could do w/o Paddack's salary then we'd need to find a cheaper & at least equal replacement.

We don't need a GG at 1B (Geez) we need someone who can hit! & Miranda would our best hitting 1B that we haven't had since '19, & he could even out do that. It'd be an absolute waste of money & talent to go outside the org. again. 

Sticking with Julien at 2B would be a big mistake, His glove & bat won't cut it, we need to trade him while we still can cash in on his hype. I like utility Castro & Martin's glove better than Julien's. I'd get Lewis in the offseason & ST to get ready to play 2B or otherwise, we need to look outside the org. to find a good starting 2B. I'd have Keirsey in LF, with Larnach as the 4th OF & Castro as the full-time UTIL & Martin as utility & Lee at 3B. Keirsey's glove is much more needed than Helman's while we don't know how either bat will respond to MLB (Keirsey had better #s)

The only area that the budget cuts affect us is extending players. We can still fill our holes via trades. They are the same ones that weren't filled last season which are a mid-rotation inning eating SP, a LHRP & most of all a young MLB-ready catcher. Like I said before we have been lucky so far of having both lucky. I wouldn't continue to tempt luck, we absolutely need a catcher to step in when either goes down. There are a few available that I like but the one I like the most is Drew Romo, Rox have been grooming him for their future catching duties. I've had my doubts that he'd be available but after Rox let Elias Diaz go Hunter Goodman has gotten hot. & seems like Black is leaning towards Goodman as their future catcher. IMO we could coax both Romo & Carrigg (who could become an elite catcher) away from them.

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, rv78 said:

First thing I'd do is ask Correa and Buxton which clubs they would waive their no trade clauses for. Second, I'd get on the phone 1 minute later and start negotiating with those clubs to see what I could get in return. This team is never going to go anywhere expecting 2 players that are either injured or performing under their abilities due to injury, to lead them to anything but disappointment. It hasn't happened in the last 3 years and it isn't going to happen going forward. Wake up Twins fans. Using young players via platoon per Rocco's management style and adding in washed up veterans has been tried enough. Is there anyone who really thinks Falvey is going to bring in players talented enough to make the changes needed if he has to work around the Correa, Buxton and Lopez contracts? Trying to do just that will only be a rinse and repeat of the last few seasons that have gotten this club little or nothing to be proud of or make fans happy about. If I can trade those 2 away along with Paddack, I've got $60M to spend on quality difference makers instead of $10 or $15M to spend on the same junk we've seen the last few off-seasons. Do we really want just more of the same or do we want to actually try something different that might lead to something better than what we've had and seen?

Buxton may be movable if he wants that, which is debatable but not impossible. The return would be negligible though and maybe Buxton plays 110 games in 2025 for the Twins at a high level. Trading Buxton is an idea to develop.

Carlos Correa is a horse of a different color however. His NTC and the financial terms make him very difficult to move. The Dodgers fans have not been forgiving of him and that would be the only team that might be interested in Correa. Correa is very good when he is in the lineup and I'm afraid that the best tactic is to hope for good health and 130+ games from Carlos. I cannot envision a trade of C4.

[USAFChief]

I don't understand the love for Miranda as a regular first baseman.

What is the best case scenario there? .750 OPS?

That's gonna get us back into the postseason??

[thelanges5]

Polo for 1B?

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

He made 12 starts there this year. I don't think that's a meaningful sample to analyze. He also made zero starts there in 2023, when their primary starter was Donovan Solano, which says a lot to me about how the Twins view him. I don't think people in the org would tell you they feel confident in Miranda's glove at 1B, outside of the occasional spot start or maybe as the RH in a platoon role. 

I don't think you're honestly evaluating the situation which gets right back to my original question/assertion in regard to Miranda's popularity with the writers on this site.

So let's throw out the most reliable advanced defensive stats for the small sample sizes we have and hinge the debate not on metrics, but reading the minds of the Twins' front office and management. The Twins have not commonly deployed Miranda at DH, preferring to use him primarily at 3B. The question is why the Twins would deploy Miranda at a much more demanding defensive position if they didn't believe he could catch baseballs? Again, the error rate for Miranda at 1B suggests he can catch baseballs just fine since his fielding percentage (.995) is basically right in line with Carlos Santana's 1B career fielding percentage (.994) or last year's (.996). You could argue Santana is superior with scooping after 10 years of experience, but that's not enough to make Miranda into an unplayable fielder there.

To answer your question as to why the Twins deployed Miranda at 3B instead of 1B, wouldn't it make a lot more sense that they felt Miranda was better at 3B than Donovan Solano (who was a primary 2B/3B throughout his career) or Carlos Santana (very limited 3B experience)? While the Twins are hardly a traditional organization, even they wouldn't choose to deploy their expected worst fielder to the hot corner of the infield.

Now, if the Twins have the budget to go out and get a slick fielding free agent 1B who can hit, I could see them doing it just for depth, but not because they don't believe Miranda can play 1B. The by far most likely scenario is believing in his 2024 results at the plate to bring back Carlos Santana, but I doubt they're getting him for $5MM after his resurgent 2024. The 39 year old's age is scary, but he was extremely durable, and he's coming off by far the best year he's had at the plate since 2019. Santana is going to have a couple suitors unlike last year when he languished on the free agent market into February which should get him a couple extra million, I suspect. Already probably $10MM in the hole for payroll capacity, I don't see the Twins finding another $8MM or so to bring back Santana. After that, it's nothing but guys who can't field (Josh Bell) or can't hit (Joey Gallo) or are highly suspect in durability and/or performance in general (Anthony Rizzo). 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

He made 12 starts there this year. I don't think that's a meaningful sample to analyze. He also made zero starts there in 2023, when their primary starter was Donovan Solano, which says a lot to me about how the Twins view him. I don't think people in the org would tell you they feel confident in Miranda's glove at 1B, outside of the occasional spot start or maybe as the RH in a platoon role. 

Reading the contrary postings on Miranda, I really am wondering what the plan is for 1B if it isn't Miranda. Santana is more $$ than the team is spending these days and at 39 more likely than not to regress as a hitter. Julien hasn't played there and can't hit. Larnach or Wallner could play there I guess but haven't. There's no one in the Minors knocking on the door. Kirilloff is no longer an option - maybe he was the first choice before. Add to that the video showing  Miranda was working out at 1B while on injury rehab and it sure seems like he is at least an option and at this point, the option. 

Nick, you have more sources in the org than the rest of us. If playing Miranda at 1B isn't the plan, what is? And where does that leave Miranda?  As trade bait, a part time player, a DH? I'm genuinely curious. 

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't understand the love for Miranda as a regular first baseman.

What is the best case scenario there? .750 OPS?

That's gonna get us back into the postseason??

Well, they aren't spending money to add one, what's your alternative (I'd use Larnach personally if not Miranda). 

His wRC+ in 2022 and 2024 would put Miranda in the top 100 in baseball, so I think you over estimate much of the rest of MLB in terms of hitting, btw. 

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't understand the love for Miranda as a regular first baseman.

What is the best case scenario there? .750 OPS?

That's gonna get us back into the postseason??

Cheap 2 WAR players don't get you into the postseason, they just help prevent you from missing it. They're the bread and butter of a competitive team.

[DJL44]

40 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Reading the contrary postings on Miranda, I really am wondering what the plan is for 1B if it isn't Miranda.

Julien is probably next on the depth chart, then Severino. I would watch the waiver wire.

[LameColt]

I wish I could grasp all the numbers; still not sure how I passed stat. About first and second bases: sorry, numbers aside, neither Miranda nor Julien plays with confidence, and failing that we see both defense and offense shortcomings. I’m understating. Average arms, under average bats, forced errors. Stop it!

But there are in the wings players skilled sufficiently for either position. They’re infielders, on the verge of the show. And if they’re skilled AND can hit a lick, they would be better placed in needed positions. Am I making sense? A capable infielder, with all that engenders, will adapt to any infield role, with some modest experience. The arm, instincts, and intelligence will show, and in one season. I’m for the kids getting chances as will be the forced situation for pitchers. Seems the cupboard is bare of dollars, but not players.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

You could argue Santana is superior with scooping after 10 years of experience, but that's not enough to make Miranda into an unplayable fielder there.

I didn't say he was unplayable there. Just that he shouldn't be viewed as the Plan A starter at first base next year -- based partially on his defensive aptitude, partially on the way this team values good defense at 1B, and partially on his lack of power at the plate. He had zero home runs in the second half! 

This isn't necessarily an indictment of his long-term outlook, but Miranda still has a lot to prove before being handed the reins as an Opening Day first baseman on a team that wants to contend. I don't know why that's treated as some sort of anti-Miranda bias, it's just reality. He's played almost 300 major-league games and produced less than 2 WAR total. He hasn't shown the ability to be productive for more than a few weeks at a time.

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Nick, you have more sources in the org than the rest of us. If playing Miranda at 1B isn't the plan, what is? And where does that leave Miranda?  As trade bait, a part time player, a DH? I'm genuinely curious. 

I don't know that there currently is a plan but I do think they will strongly prioritize finding a more experienced and natural first baseman to slot ahead of him, at least for the start of the season. Maybe they'll come up empty. But I would be shocked if they're saying right now, "We're fine at first base, we got Miranda."

[Linus]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't understand the love for Miranda as a regular first baseman.

What is the best case scenario there? .750 OPS?

That's gonna get us back into the postseason??

It’s one of the problems when you really can’t play a position. Then you have to be a really good hitter to either play 1b or DH or you end up being José Miranda or Ed Julien. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Linus said:

It’s one of the problems when you really can’t play a position. Then you have to be a really good hitter to either play 1b or DH or you end up being José Miranda or Ed Julien. 

Among ALL qualified hitters in MLB, 750 would put a player 68th in all of baseball......

Of those with 300 at bats, 750 is 101st in ALL of baseball.

And is better than what Santana did last year.

[Linus]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Among ALL qualified hitters in MLB, 750 would put a player 68th in all of baseball......

Of those with 300 at bats, 750 is 101st in ALL of baseball.

And is better than what Santana did last year.

Which would be great if he was a plus fielder somewhere and could run. 

[Major League Ready]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Among ALL qualified hitters in MLB, 750 would put a player 68th in all of baseball......

Of those with 300 at bats, 750 is 101st in ALL of baseball.

And is better than what Santana did last year.

Ideally, you get elite offensive production out of 1B/DH but 750 is not the problem it's being made out to be here either.  We should be equally concerned with solidifying 2B and even 3B.  I think Rodriquez gets here by June 1 and the OF gets solidified at least in terms of roster allocation.  Obviously, he has to prove himself at the ML level.  We also have a 5th SP spot to solidify.  1B does not stand out in terms of question marks.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Because Lewis and Correa missed massive amounts of time? Julien was getting regular time in the field while he was a viable offensive option, that doesn't mean his defense was adequate. 

Viable, try handicap on both counts.

[Mike Sixel]

47 minutes ago, Linus said:

Which would be great if he was a plus fielder somewhere and could run. 

I was simply responding to 750 not being a good hitter....nothing more or less. I have no idea if he can get better at fielding, but I think he likely can. He's not a clutz out there.....

[Dave Borton]

I understand the interest in the off season, but my approach is very passive. Why?

Pohlad has given a key figure to Falvey. Falvey's bonus is going to be based on achieving that figure with a stepped bonus upon achieving so many wins. Hit that figure (base payroll) and then have an algorithm in which the more wins results in a higher bonus for Falvey.   Falvey has to achieve that base salary before the bonus kicks in.

Only in knowing that figure can you make assumptions about what the off-season trade season looks like. While it's fun, it's futile.

Pohlad has his figure in mind relative to moving the team. MLB franchises are like real estate --- it's the location, location, location. If you are planning on moving, you don't re-do the wood floors, install new windows. You break out a bucket of paint and splash a new coat on it. You don't invest in it.

I don't think Pohlad is finished reducing payroll. Break out the paint (trade XX and sign YY) and come in with that reduced payroll, shooting for 75 wins. You have to know Pohlad's figure 

[theBOMisthebomb]

Are there plans to replace Thad Levine?

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Are there plans to replace Thad Levine?

no. they are consolidating that job, IIRC.