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Posted

By the end of their prolonged stumble and fall to close 2024, the Twins bullpen was sorely lacking for reinforcements. There should a strong core in place for 2025, but who are the under-discussed prospects who could factor into the MLB bullpen next season? Let's profile four of them.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

The Twins bullpen was hanging on by a thread at the end of 2024. Overly taxed by the added workload from a rotation relying disproportionately on rookies, they cracked under the burden. Brock Stewart missed the majority of the season. Caleb Thielbar wasn’t trustworthy. Justin Topa may as well have been Keyser Soze, until he managed two appearances when the Twins' playoff odds had already disappeared.

the usual suspects GIF.

Fortune may well smile more kindly on the relief corps in 2025. A foundation of Griffin Jax, Jhoan Durán, Stewart, Cole Sands, and Topa should be viewed with optimism, but we know more arms are likely needed. Jovani Morán, Ronny Henriquez, and Matt Canterino are on the fringes of the mix, but who are the team's most likely internal relief candidates? Let’s dig in.

Jaylen Nowlin, LHP, St Paul
Left-handed relief options were a significant challenge for the 2024 Twins. Thielbar looks as if his best days are behind him. Steven Okert’s best moment of the season was tipping the bullpen cart driver at Nationals Park, and Kody Funderburk missed the majority of the year through injury. 

Nowlin has quietly crept his way to St. Paul as a 23-year old, and worked in relief after he moved up in September. A 19th-round pick in 2021, it’s little surprise just how little fanfare Nowlin has received thus far in his minor-league career, but there are some interesting ingredients here. Nowlin’s fastball hit 95 mph and his sinker 96 mph in a short Saints debut. This pairs with a power slider he throws as hard as 88 mph. Nowlin still has work to do finishing off hitters and issuing fewer free passes (11.1 BB% in 2024). Good arm talent from the left side is a commodity, however, so don’t bet against him getting a chance at some point.

Connor Prielipp, LHP, Cedar Rapids
Prielipp may seem like a long shot, based on current level and injury history, but he makes particular sense as a late-season call-up option. His separator is the quality of his stuff (we recently profiled him as one of the most likely names to break into industry-wide top-100 prospect lists from the Twins organization). 

Prielipp's history of arm trouble and his three-pitch mix make him an ideal relief option. His fastball would likely play up to 97 mph or above in a late-inning role. This, in addition to a slider that spins its way up to 3,000 rpm and a changeup averaging 16 inches of horizontal break from the left side, stack up as a formidable set of traits for opposing hitters to manage. Left-handed hitters managed just a .462 OPS against Prielipp in 2024. If he can stay healthy, I think he’ll be in the mix by the end of 2025.

Kyle Bischoff, RHP, St Paul
Bischoff is the latest in a long line of intriguing minor-league free-agent signings for the Twins, who seem to accrue significant value around those margins (see Payton Eeeles and Carson McCusker). Already 25 years old, Bischoff is an older prospect who saw time at three MiLB levels in 2024 on his way to a late season call-up to the Saints.

In 61 1/3 innings pitched, Bischoff managed a 3.23 ERA, 2.84 FIP, and 3.48 xFIP, striking out an impressive 29.9% of hitters and walking slightly too many at 10%. So what’s the arsenal underpinning those impressive numbers? Bischoff's is a sinker/slider profile. His sinker gets up to 96 mph, with good horizontal action. There’s also a cutter, gyro slider, and changeup, although his Triple-A sample size is so small that I don’t feel complete confidence in his mix just yet. Regardless, it’s solid stuff in a profile that would add more of an east/west element to the Twins' bullpen (along with Topa). Giving teams varied looks out of the pen is all the rage, and Bischoff can help do that.

Travis Adams, RHP, St Paul
Travis Adams is probably the Twins pitching prospect I’ve heard the least chatter about, and he’s been shortchanged, for my money. A 6th-round pick in 2021, Adams struck out 109 hitters in 108 innings of work at Double A (3.67 ERA) in 2024 before getting 19 Triple-A innings that were more of a challenge. 

Adams has a deep, diverse pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. So, why would he be an option for the bullpen? A ton of competition and a lack of elite starter traits. My guess is he’ll get a long runway in the very deep starting rotation mix at St. Paul in 2024. He’ll find a more direct path as a reliever than through the pack of starting pitching prospects with slightly better stuff. Maybe an extended apprenticeship as a long reliever will help him tap into something, the way it seemed to do for Sands.

Honorable Mentions
There are, of course, plenty of other names who could position themselves in the mix here. There’s a high likelihood that the glut of young starters at St. Paul doesn't all remain starters. Names like Cory Lewis and Marco Raya could end up in relief roles next year, if not permanently. There are also names further down the organization, who could take a more significant leap.


Who do you think are the most likely internal candidates to impact the Twins bullpen in 2025? Make your case in the comments.


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Posted

All guys that could be good relief arms in the future, but I wouldn't have expectations for any of them to "help" in 2025. 

Prielipp is the most interesting case with stuff that might play right away if he manages to stay healthy. But outside of Duran, the Twins haven't really had anyone who was immediately good transitioning to the MLB bullpen.  It's usually a multi-year process.  It took Cole Sands 2 years and he was a better prospect at this stage than all of these guys besides Prielipp.

Could see a few of them getting their feet wet, but wouldn't consider them bullpen help until 2026 or even 2027.

Posted

I actually think the bullpen is in decent shape overall for 2025, assuming we don't suddenly dump Jax & Duran for salary reasons. They have 2 real needs: a consistent 2 inning reliever that can go every 3 days or so and a LH option that doesn't get destroyed by RH hitters.

Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala form a pretty good late-inning bullpen spine, which also means that Topa & Stewart (who are very good when healthy and rarely healthy) are value-added options rather than people you're counting on for significant innings. If Stewart is healthy again, great. but we don't need to bet on him being our 2nd or 3rd best reliever. But asking Alcala to go 2 innings hasn't gone great and moving Sands into higher leverage roles means you'd rather have him pitch 1 later inning twice in 3 days than 2 middle innings once in 3 days.

I'd look at Varland for the 2 inning role, personally. And I'm increasingly on board with the idea of Preilipp at a LH option: I just don't think he's likely to be a starting option with his health issues, but he has the pitches to not only be death to LH hitters but hold his own nicely against RH as well.

Mock bullpen for 2025: Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Topa/Stewart, Varland, Preilipp, LH to be named later. (Assume at least one of Stewart or Topa won't be ready for Spring Training) Move on from Okert. They probably cant bear to move on from Thielbar. Maybe he can hack it as the second LH, but...

That's a pretty good bullpen even if they can't find someone better/more consistent that what's left of Thielbar, especially if at least one of Topa/Stewart is mostly healthy, instead of both of them being zeroes. The biggest question mark is Varland, who has the velocity and stuff to be effective as a reliever, but has also been hit pretty hard. Duran, Jax, and Sands are pretty durable, and Alcala looks recovered from his injury. there's a lot of velocity there and some wicked breaking balls to boot.

But having that 2 inning guy will be important to keep the back end fresh enough that you don't have so many guys pitching back to back. Maybe it's Varland. Maybe it's Paddack. Maybe it's Raya? But I think the options are there internally.

Posted

My initial thoughts of who to add to the bullpen include three of these pitchers: Nowlin, Raya, and Prielipp. I'm not sure if any of them begins the season on the roster but each has definite value. Nowlin looks really good in short stretches and he has good stuff. Both Raya and Prielipp are potential starters but will need a couple of years to build up their stamina and repertoire. Each already has pitches to get outs in the pen though and seem like possibilities for being added to the roster by August if all has gone well for them to that time. 

Posted

Prielipp has not been viewed as a relief pitcher by the organization yet as he was allowed to go as deep into games (50 pitches) as Marco Raya was for most of his season. A starting pitcher's value is 3-4x as high as an effective reliever. Aside from that, Prielipp was in A+ ball this year. I don't think it's a stretch to believe Prielipp will start next year in AA, but it feels absurd to suggest he could be part of the Twins' bullpen before mid-year under ideal circumstances. Even if the Twins did decide to make a radical shift on a top prospect to move him to the 'pen mid year, it would definitely push Prielipp back a year in regard to him becoming a potential starter. Not that it's really necessary since Prielipp hasn't won't need to be added to the 40 man roster until later this year. Based on how the Twins handled Marco Raya, I think it's a lot more likely Prielipp starts off at 3.0 innings (50 pitches) and stretches to 5.0 innings (80 pitches) by the end of the year, spending virtually the entire year in AA.

BP1 Duran
BP2 Jax
BP3 Sands
BP4 Stewart
BP5 Topa
BP6 Alcala
BP7 Moran
BP8 Varland
Tonkin, Henriquez, Funderburk, Blewett, etc for potentially the back end of the 'pen. There are plenty of options to fill things out.

I'm not sure the Twins' bullpen needs much help. The fans' memory of the bullpen being awful really seems to swing back to a few late season desperation games when the offense honestly failed to score sufficient runs and the bullpen needed to put up a ton of zeroes to win the game. The 4 of the 7 relievers with 20+ appearances who are likely to return went 22-23 (Jax, Duran, Funderburk, Alcala)

16-17
9 blown saves (6 by Jax)
34 saves (79%) or 89% excluding Jax's 6 BS vs. 10 SV
51 holds
5.9 fWAR (5th in MLB)

 

Posted
12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Tonkin, Henriquez, Funderburk, Blewett, etc for potentially the back end of the 'pen. There are plenty of options to fill things out.

I agree that they have a lot of options to help the back end of the pen. The one guy listed who could help close games is Prielipp. He could potentially be one of their top 4 relievers.

Posted

Nowlin kept jumping out to me when I went to Wind Surge games.  It just seemed like everywhere they put him he was just solid.  And they used him everywhere, which I like as a reliever.  He was often the piggyback for Raya or whoever was managing innings and all kinds of situations.

He's pitched his way onto the radar for me.

Posted
3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Nowlin looks really good in short stretches and he has good stuff.

You watch some of his games I think. My impression is that he is all or nothing. If he's on, he seems unhittable. Some games it lasts the whole game. Others, he hits a rough inning and implodes. Sometimes the implosion happens in the 1st inning. I believe control is his problem. He must have to adjust to throw strikes some days/innings but then seems to get hammered. That last part concerns me. My impressions are from box scores and TD comments. What have you seen? I don't have him on the 40 man this winter. Do you?

Posted
2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Good list! Any chance we see Canterino pitch in 2025?

Shoulder sprains which don't get better and wipe out a whole season aren't a good sign. Radio silence on the results from his late June MRI or any rehab work he did after that point, either. Wouldn't surprise me to hear he had to undergo unreported shoulder surgery.

All in all, as of right now, 5% odds feels a little optimistic as a gut instinct.

Posted
45 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

You watch some of his games I think. My impression is that he is all or nothing. If he's on, he seems unhittable. Some games it lasts the whole game. Others, he hits a rough inning and implodes. Sometimes the implosion happens in the 1st inning. I believe control is his problem. He must have to adjust to throw strikes some days/innings but then seems to get hammered. That last part concerns me. My impressions are from box scores and TD comments. What have you seen? I don't have him on the 40 man this winter. Do you?

Yes, I watched him pitch at least ten times. He is inconsistent but talented. I would put him on the 40 person roster because the upside is there. Youth often need experience and failure is a part of baseball and life. I guess he might be a little bit of lightning, so good and bad. Nowlin might be the type of guy to be the perfect #8 reliever, used when the team needs innings. 

Posted

I think the pen is fine right now from the RH side of things...including some depth options...as long as half of them aren't all injured at once again.

Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Varland, Alcala, and Topa looks really good to me. 

But I confess I had forgotten about Bischoff. Even more depth with Henriquez, Winder, and dare we to dream on Canterino? Hadn't thought as much about Adams, but I can see it now.

Things aren't so great from the PORT SIDE of things. I'm still a fan of Funderburk if we can see more of the control he flashed in 2023. Huge fan of Moran's stuff. But even if 100% and throwing bullets, he's always had some control issues. How long will it take him to get under control? I see him more as a June reinforcement type, but am hoping for more. The one guy i don't believe that has been mentioned in Headrick. I think he's perfect...as a former starter...to go 1-2 IP and hopefully be relatively effective against RH bats.

Sorry, I don't want Prielipp anywhere near a bullpen unless it's just to get some more IP in 2025, and he's performing so well, might as well do it in September for the Twins. Please, nothing that could derail him from being a potential rotation mainstay on the near future. 

Generally speaking, I don't think pitching is an issue for the Twins next season. (With the question mark of LHRP options). I'm more worri3d about 1B, a backup CF we can really trust...at least defensively...and a RH bat for the OF that doesn't turn in to a windmill when he faces RH arms.

Posted

This is a good list; however I would add the plethora of starting pitcher prospects to this list as well. The pitching pipeline is full of 4th or 5th starter types (if everything goes right) but the most likely outcome is a trip to middle relief (see Varland, Sands, Jax, etc.).

Posted
8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

There is a train full of pitchers heading to the show.  There will be some frustration at times but WOW! These kids could be incredible!

Lots of good arms in our system nowadays, which is a refreshing change for the better. I like the idea of giving some of these young arms a chance, rather than going out and signing more guys like Jackson and Okert. Give the kids a shot!

Posted
1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

rather than going out and signing more guys like Jackson and Okert.

My biggest problems with the Jackson's and Okert's is that we had some good pitchers in AAA or spring training and made an incorrect evaluation of their ability (Cano and Coulumbe with the Orioles, Hoffman with the Phillies, Hamilton with the Yankees).

Posted

I have little faith in Stewart being both healthy and effective for an extended period of time. He has never pitched more than 34 innings in a season. Outside of his great 28 innings in 2023 he has never been good, outside of a few innings.

Why are we putting any faith in Stewart?  I keep seeing people write about how he will help next year, what evidence do we have that he will throw more than 30 innings? None, because outside of 1 year where he did 34 innings he has never topped 28 even. He should be thought of as a bonus guy.  If he can be healthy and pitch like 2023 then great, but to expect he will pitch like 2023 and pitch a full year is just wishes. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Lots of good arms in our system nowadays, which is a refreshing change for the better. I like the idea of giving some of these young arms a chance, rather than going out and signing more guys like Jackson and Okert. Give the kids a shot!

I understood the Okert signing: they were looking for a 2nd lefty and Okert has been and was for the Twins very good against LH hitters. If he'd been close to his career average against RH hitters he might have been viable, but he was abysmal. 10 years ago he might have had a role as a LOOGY, but unless he figures out a way to survive against righties, he's cooked. It was a reasonable way to backup Thielbar, but it just didn't work.

the jackson one never made much sense to me.

Posted

I'm on the side of those who think we currently have enough guys to field a pretty good bullpen in 2025.  The "spine" (as someone referred to it) of Duran, Jax, Sands and Alcala is good.  Guys who have flashed talent but have health issues are Stewart and Topa.  Two LHP that I still like are Funderburk and Moran but they have to get healthy.  In particular, I think Funderburk was battling through health issues ALL season.  

Varland is a Wildcard.  He could be PERFECT as that 2-inning guy.  I think he's cooked as a SP but has a chance to be a solid guy in a bullpen ala Trevor May.  Nowlin and Prielipp are interesting possibilities as the season unfolds.  If we were a baseball team operating with a reasonable salary structure I would advocate signing ONE impactful LH bullpen arm.  Not that he's the guy, but as an example, an A.J. Puk type of arm.  

Alas, we have bigger issues than getting an A.J. Puk type of arm.  First Base has more questions than answers.  39 year old Carlos Santana is not one of them.  Take the "win" for 2024 in his age 38 season.  Don't make the mistake of giving him an age 39 season.  We need a 1B for the future, not just one more season.  I would go into 2025 with Kirilloff, Miranda and Julien battling to win the position.  He who HITS and stays healthy is the winner.

We really need to acquire a RH hitting OF as Buxton insurance and to possibly supplant Larnach as the fulltime LF.  I'm not sure who that guy would be at this time (a Tyler O'Neill type of guy) but we do need to "balance" the roster. 

It's hard to know what types of moves/trades the Twins will consider with the ownership question hanging in the air.  How quickly that question is resolved will give us better insight into what would be considered, but even if the Pohlad's still own the Twins for much or all of the 2025 season, some guys we wouldn't expect should at least be considered as trade bait.  

 

Posted
6 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

My biggest problems with the Jackson's and Okert's is that we had some good pitchers in AAA or spring training and made an incorrect evaluation of their ability (Cano and Coulumbe with the Orioles, Hoffman with the Phillies, Hamilton with the Yankees).

Cano was 3 years ago and in 2022 was unplayable as his usual wild self. Yes, he was great in 2023, but regressed back at age 30 in 2024 to being much more like Alcala or Sands. I suspect 2023 will be a fluke year. Coulumbe was hurt in 2022, great for Balto in 2023, and hurt in 2024 at age 34. Do you want to pay Coulumbe his $4M option in 2025?

I guess they missed on Hoffman, but so did a lot of teams: Phillies were way down on the waiver claim. And Hoffman had to go down to AAA with them to figure it out. I'm pretty sure I recall people grousing about the Twins wasting a spot on a 30-year old retread who had never done much in MLB a the time.

Hamilton is a pretty fungible reliever. Good in 2023, meh in 2024. he would have been maybe the 5th or 6th best reliever for the Twins in 2024, has gotten hurt in 2023 and 2024...he's just another guy. Do I like him as a bullpen option more than say...Josh Winder? Not really.

I think every franchise has a list like this of pitchers who the team traded or released that turned around and had 1-3 good seasons relieving for someone else. 

 

Posted

Pitchers I would pick to help the 25 bullpen would be Paddack, if he's not traded or forced into the rotation due to early season injuries. Raya- good stuff,but doesn't have the stamina so far to pitch deep enough. Canterino and Prelipp. Both have strikeout stuff that would play out of our pen immediately IF they can ever stay healthy. We should have a decent pen. I'd go with

Duran, Jax, Alcala, Sands

Stewart, Topa, Varland 

Prelipp/Canterino and another LHRP

Waiting in the wings/injury replacement can be:

Headrick, Henriquez, Tonkin, Raya or any free agent we could pick up. To fill out our pen we need someone who can go more than one or two innings and we need one or two lefties. I think Theilbar is done, but if we can get him on a minor league deal,give him a look in spring training. Okert and Funderburk aren't the answer. Look to Headrick, Prelipp and free agency.

Posted
1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

My biggest problems with the Jackson's and Okert's is that we had some good pitchers in AAA or spring training and made an incorrect evaluation of their ability (Cano and Coulumbe with the Orioles, Hoffman with the Phillies, Hamilton with the Yankees).

How did they miss on 4 guys in such a short period of time?!  Has anyone asked that question directly to Falvey/Baldelli?

Posted
1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Cano was 3 years ago and in 2022 was unplayable as his usual wild self. Yes, he was great in 2023, but regressed back at age 30 in 2024 to being much more like Alcala or Sands.

But Baltimore changed his arm angle IIRC and apparently that fixed his wildness. Why couldn't we try that? (there's always the possibility that Cano refused I guess). Yes, I would like another Alcala or Sands in the bullpen.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Do you want to pay Coulumbe his $4M option in 2025?

No, no team will. With his injury history and age, he won't get much. The Twins need a left-hander in the pen and I think he would be a good pitcher to try if he doesn't cost much. He's good when healthy and I would gamble on him.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I guess they missed on Hoffman

Hoffman had a very good spring training with the Twins and many of us were surprised the Twins let him go.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Do I like him as a bullpen option more than say...Josh Winder?

Yes, I'm not confident in Winder.

I'm just looking for cheap, back end bullpen guys (all of these guys were cheap when the Twins let them go). I don't think we can afford a $7M Paddack or $3M Thielbar in the back of the pen. The guys I mentioned probably are too expensive now. My belief is the Twins make a higher % of mistakes in who is selected for the backend of the pen than many other teams. People always complain that the Twins are dumpster diving. Sometimes the FO found a gem in the dumpster and our staff doesn't realize it or can't make the adjustment to turn them into a gem. Certainly debatable.

Posted
5 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I'm just looking for cheap, back end bullpen guys (all of these guys were cheap when the Twins let them go). I don't think we can afford a $7M Paddack or $3M Thielbar in the back of the pen. The guys I mentioned probably are too expensive now. My belief is the Twins make a higher % of mistakes in who is selected for the backend of the pen than many other teams. People always complain that the Twins are dumpster diving. Sometimes the FO found a gem in the dumpster and our staff doesn't realize it or can't make the adjustment to turn them into a gem. Certainly debatable.

I get it, and I don't disagree. And I think the twins have a philosophy of building their bullpen on the cheap by seeking out reclamation projects that they think they can improve by mechanical adjustments, changes in pitch mix, etc, and taking starters who flamed out and transitioning them to the bullpen. For the most part it's worked, but they're going to miss on some guys from time to time because so many relievers simply aren't consistent performers from year to year.

It'll be interesting to see where guys like can and Hamilton land this season: will they put up a big year and be a real late-inning option, or are they going to be just another guy again? Look at someone like Pagan: he was pretty meh in 2024, but was (surprisingly) good in 2023 after being decidedly below average in 2022. 

Posted
On 10/18/2024 at 8:55 PM, FlyingFinn said:

My biggest problems with the Jackson's and Okert's is that we had some good pitchers in AAA or spring training and made an incorrect evaluation of their ability (Cano and Coulumbe with the Orioles, Hoffman with the Phillies, Hamilton with the Yankees).

Those sorts of incorrect evaluations have certainly come back to haunt the Twins, are at least must give the front office a reason to wonder what they missed. 

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