In-House Roster Decisions the Twins Need to Make in November

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Eeles just might end up as the 2B but Castro would still have a valuable role.

Although I agree that Castro would still have value in addition to a good 2B (Lee, Eeles, Keaschall,?), Falvey needs to be looking across baseball for talent and be willing to trade. I would think Castro would be a good pickup for a team and hopefully that team would have something the Twins need.

[stringer bell]

Most of the decisions are pretty easy. I would think taking the team option for Alcalá is a no-brainer, no qualifying offers and most of the arbitration decisions are easy, including a non-tender for Tonkin.

It seems to me that the 40-man decisions are pretty clear cut as well: A DFA (again) for Dobnak and when he isn't claimed, an outright to Triple A, Raya is the only certainty to be added, while a case can be made for subtracting Canterino, Winder, Duarte, Helman, Keirsey Jr. and Camargo. Even if they keep most or all of the questionable calls, there will be space on the 40-man roster. 

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Castro is not going to be cut loose for nothing. If he is that should rankle the feathers of every fan on here. Could he be traded? He's probably our top trade chip. So yes. Duran shouldn't be traded. Not if we want any semblence of a pen, though he would bring back a good price. Jeffers who was mentioned here would bring a good price but wheres that leave the team? Paddock could be traded but the return will be next to nothing. Trading him only allows the team to come in at budget. Things are going to be tight but Castro doesn't leave for nothing imo. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People downvoting this think the Twins will let Jeffers walk for nothing? Ignoring that they should keep him, you think they'll just let him go, not sign him for a bargain rate, and trade him, just let him walk over 5 million dollars? Who's your catcher?

Not hard to find one better than Jeffers.

[DocBauer]

In and vacuum, all of the arbitration numbers make sense and most all should be brought back. You aren't going to find better options elsewhere on the market.

If the budget weren't so tight, I could Tonkin back on such a cheap deal to contend as a veteran middle man who's had a decent career. But I just don't see it happening.

I absolutely bring back Topa, banking on his knee being solid, he could be a "steal" at his number. 

I could see Kirilloff gone, but again, with an option remaining, and possessing talent if he could ever stay healthy for a season, the reward could easily outperform the $. But similar to Tonkin, you might have to draw a line at some point.

Castro is a tough call based on payroll. He's not JUST a utility player. He's a full time, daily player and 2024 All Star who just happens to play EVERYWHERE. His $ number is more than fair! It would a damn shame to see him gone by a budget being too tight to keep him.

Again, in a vacuum, all of these numbers are fair and make sense. Basically, if you bring everyone back, payroll is pretty much set. If Paddack can be moved, you get a little wiggle room for an inexpensive add or two around the fringes of the roster.

MILB players to be protected? I agree on Raya. With him being unpolished still, and having missed so much time this season, do we really need to protect Rosario at this point? Nowlin, as a LH arm with good stuff who reached AAA briefly to end the season, I can see him protected. He's a perfect candidate to be grabbed in rule 5 and stashed based on potential. I wouldn't risk a LH arm with his potential being selected. He's a keeper to me.

I think most of all the remaining rule 5/possibly protected MILB players are safe to not be protected.

I can see a handful of prospects moved in small deals to grab a couple inexpensive options to fill in the 2025 roster. Guys stuck behind veterans, guys who are solid young players who haven't hit their stride yet, a solid bench guy who hasn't gotten a shot yet, etc. But for the most part, I think 2025 is going to be a rewind with the anticipation of better team health and the continued development of the Twins younger players.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Fred said:

This last Spring I watched a kid I had never heard of playing at Ft. Myers. He signed out of Independent ball. After watching him play just 3 games I told my Daughter "this kids got something", and I predicted him  to make Wichita this next season. Well, the Twins must have seen it, because Payton Eeles played the last half season at AAA. He plays a decent SS along with 2nd base and I've seen him in the corner outfield spots. I told my Daughter I got a "Charley Hustle" vibe watching him. Get what you can for Castro. Promote Eeles.

They can promote Eeles and put Castro in the outfield. It isn't either/or.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Not hard to find one better than Jeffers.

It's incredibly hard to find a catcher who can produce more than Jeffers. He would clearly be the best free agent on the market if he was non-tendered and would get a multiyear contract at more than $10M per season.

[Mike Sixel]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It's incredibly hard to find a catcher who can produce more than Jeffers. He would clearly be the best free agent on the market if he was non-tendered and would get a multiyear contract at more than $10M per season.

Truth. I have no idea what's with a few people on this site and Jeffers. 

[The Great Hambino]

Over the past two seasons Jeffers is 9th in bWAR among catchers (threshold of catching in 40% of games played).  Of the players in front of him, they all either arb/pre-arb with at least three years of team control left (Contreras-Milwaukee, Raleigh, Rutschman, Moreno, Yainer Diaz) or are signed to free agent contracts making more than triple Jeffers' projected salary (Will Smith, Realmuto, Contreras-St Louis).  None are free agents this offseason.  The best free agents on the list are 19. Elias Diaz (OPS+ of 88 last year), 22. Gary Sanchez (93), and 23. Danny Jansen (87).  And I might be going out on a limb here, but I don't see an immediate upgrade within the organization.

Even if you adjust to the last three seasons (Jeffers ranks 12th) or just last season (17th), no pending free agents rank ahead of him.

If Jeffers is easily replaceable at $5MM, I'd be interested in hearing who all these replacements are.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Over the past two seasons Jeffers is 9th in bWAR among catchers (threshold of catching in 40% of games played).  Of the players in front of him, they all either arb/pre-arb with at least three years of team control left (Contreras-Milwaukee, Raleigh, Rutschman, Moreno, Yainer Diaz) or are signed to free agent contracts making more than triple Jeffers' projected salary (Will Smith, Realmuto, Contreras-St Louis).  None are free agents this offseason.  The best free agents on the list are 19. Elias Diaz (OPS+ of 88 last year), 22. Gary Sanchez (93), and 23. Danny Jansen (87).  And I might be going out on a limb here, but I don't see an immediate upgrade within the organization.

Even if you adjust to the last three seasons (Jeffers ranks 12th) or just last season (17th), no pending free agents rank ahead of him.

If Jeffers is easily replaceable at $5MM, I'd be interested in hearing who all these replacements are.

Price does not determine who might replace him, only important in your opinion.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Price does not determine who might replace him, only important in your opinion.

What world are you living in where price has nothing to do with his replacement?  This is a real team with a publicly-stated budget, not MLB The Show franchise mode

[Whitey333]

The Twins have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 years.  I am expecting more of the same next year.  No more of Mr. Gullible here falling for all the false hype of playoff grandeur.  That being said IMO it's time to see if the great prospects on the 26 and 40 can actually play or if they will remain as prospects.  In that vein they must play full-time.  How can you expect to develop or evaluate these players when they wind up playing only part time due to the teams platooning and strict adherence to analytics?  The time is now.  2025 looks bleak so at least see if the players you have invested in for the future success of the team can actually play.  

[Doctor Wu]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I would trade Jeffers in a fair deal but would need at least one decent option on board before making a deal.

And that pretty much sums it up in regards to trading Jeffers. Who takes his place as starting catcher? Sure, we still have Vasquez but not sure how he will age and produce going forward if he starts most games, plus our minor league catching prospects that might contribute are underwhelming. 

[Trov]

I think you need to know how much of a budget you really have, assuming it is the same as last year.  I would non-tender AK(which hurts me but he has shown nothing but being hurt for years) and Tonkin.  No QO for anyone. 

The 40 man roster issue is a bit harder.  Right now they have 47 on it, because 7 on 60 day IL.  They have only 5 FA, Kepler, Margot, Santana, Theilbar, and DeSclafani.  I could have missed one.  That means 2 need to be DFA right off the bat.  If you non-tender Tonkin and AK, that gives you 40.  Dobnak will be easy DFA, Durante most likely, Helman and Keirsay Jr as well. There are some other pitchers you could think about, but that only frees up 4 40 man spots.  Rayna and Rosario most likely get 2 of them. Ohl gets another.  They may leave 1 spot as they generally do, but may look to fill it. 

Trades can always happen to free up 40 man spots as well. 

[stringer bell]

29 minutes ago, Trov said:

I think you need to know how much of a budget you really have, assuming it is the same as last year.  I would non-tender AK(which hurts me but he has shown nothing but being hurt for years) and Tonkin.  No QO for anyone. 

The 40 man roster issue is a bit harder.  Right now they have 47 on it, because 7 on 60 day IL.  They have only 5 FA, Kepler, Margot, Santana, Theilbar, and DeSclafani.  I could have missed one.  That means 2 need to be DFA right off the bat.  If you non-tender Tonkin and AK, that gives you 40.  Dobnak will be easy DFA, Durante most likely, Helman and Keirsay Jr as well. There are some other pitchers you could think about, but that only frees up 4 40 man spots.  Rayna and Rosario most likely get 2 of them. Ohl gets another.  They may leave 1 spot as they generally do, but may look to fill it. 

Trades can always happen to free up 40 man spots as well. 

Farmer is another FA. Tonkin and Dobnak would be automatics to be DFA'd IMHO. The questionable ones would be Helman, Keirsey Jr., Blewett, Funderburk, Canterino, Duarte and Winder. I also don't know what the value of Camargo is. It seemed he was recalled only in emergencies and only to come into a game in an emergency. I don't know if there's another catcher to add that would have options, perhaps someone who gets DFA'd next month, but if Camargo gets zero trust both as a hitter and receiver, he isn't worth a roster spot.

[Jeff K]

16 hours ago, Fred said:

This last Spring I watched a kid I had never heard of playing at Ft. Myers. He signed out of Independent ball. After watching him play just 3 games I told my Daughter "this kids got something", and I predicted him  to make Wichita this next season. Well, the Twins must have seen it, because Payton Eeles played the last half season at AAA. He plays a decent SS along with 2nd base and I've seen him in the corner outfield spots. I told my Daughter I got a "Charley Hustle" vibe watching him. Get what you can for Castro. Promote Eeles.

I think a sign and trade for Castro makes good sense.  I do feel his production will go up if he plays a bit less and focuses on fewer positions.  I think Baldelli abused him this past season.

[FlyingFinn]

53 minutes ago, Trov said:

Ohl gets another.

Agree with a lot of what you wrote but Ohl has zero chance of getting on the 40 man roster this winter and won't be drafted in the Rule 5 draft.

[TopGunn#22]

To me, Tonkin is the only obvious name that jumps out as a clear "no."  I'm still willing to hang with Kirilloff for one more year.  The rest of them, to me are obvious "YES's."   I'd still look to deal a catcher, and if I could get Alcantara or Luzardo in a deal for Jeffers I'd consider it.  I'd like to start with Vasquez with the Marlins and pick up a chunk of his salary, but I just don't think I could pry Alcantara or Luzardo away from them for anything less than Jeffers and probably Julien.  If that's the case I'd ride with Vasquez for the final year of his deal and remake our catching anew in 2026.

It might seem foolish to even consider trading Jeffers considering that there are still big questions with a number of our catching prospects in the minor leagues, but I think the Twins should make some discreet inquires and see what kind of deals are available.  I always bring up Alcantara and Luzardo because the Marlins have absolutely no catching talent at the major league or minor league level and they have some young pitching that could replace an Alcantara or Luzardo.  They have been rumored to be interested in either Jeffers or Vasquez.  

The rest of the Rule 5 names just don't move the needle for me.  I'd be open to letting them all go.

[Schmoeman5]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

People downvoting this think the Twins will let Jeffers walk for nothing? Ignoring that they should keep him, you think they'll just let him go, not sign him for a bargain rate, and trade him, just let him walk over 5 million dollars? Who's your catcher?

The prospect you covet from Boston 

[DocBauer]

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They can promote Eeles and put Castro in the outfield. It isn't either/or.

Eeles will turn 25yo within weeks. He's not young, but he sure isn't old. If he had been picked with one of the Twins last choices in the past couple of drafts instead of having to go the indie route, and had this meteoric rise, I wonder what his prospect ranking might be?

IMO, he should be brought in to ST next season as a non roster invite. He should be given a fair chance to see if he's ready, or how close to ready he might be. Every time I go back and look at his season, I'm constantly blown away by what he did, including at AAA. 

IF things go a certain way, there's room for both Castro and Eeles, I agree. Because part of what makes Castro so valuable is his ability to play everywhere.

[stringer bell]

16 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Eeles will turn 25yo within weeks. He's not young, but he sure isn't old. If he had been picked with one of the Twins last choices in the past couple of drafts instead of having to go the indie route, and had this meteoric rise, I wonder what his prospect ranking might be?

IMO, he should be brought in to ST next season as a non roster invite. He should be given a fair chance to see if he's ready, or how close to ready he might be. Every time I go back and look at his season, I'm constantly blown away by what he did, including at AAA. 

IF things go a certain way, there's room for both Castro and Eeles, I agree. Because part of what makes Castro so valuable is his ability to play everywhere.

With the probable exit of Farmer there certainly is room for two utility type players—Eeles and Helman would fit in that category, along with Castro and Martin.

I am skeptical of late bloomers and previously unheralded prospects who have a big year in the minors and don’t think it’s a sure thing that they can step up and be contributors to a major league team. 

[Greglw3]

On 10/14/2024 at 3:13 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Jeffers? Insanity. Truly. 

You like the .226 batting average and the too frequent long, deep slumps? If I’m rebuilding the team, I aspire to much better than a .226 hitter at every position. For me, lineups littered with .190 and low .200 average hitters, like the Twins have tolerated  for the last few years, is the height of insanity.

[D.C Twins]

No to Tonkin and Krilloff, but otherwise...sure I guess.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

You like the .226 batting average and the too frequent long, deep slumps? If I’m rebuilding the team, I aspire to much better than a .226 hitter at every position. For me, lineups littered with .190 and low .200 average hitters, like the Twins have tolerated  for the last few years, is the height of insanity.

Go look at the other catchers in baseball. And look at slugging and on base percentage also. Compared to other catchers, he's been above average in his career. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

You like the .226 batting average 

The league hit .243. That isn't even that far below average.

[Greglw3]

On 10/15/2024 at 10:07 PM, DJL44 said:

The league hit .243. That isn't even that far below average.

But it is significantly below average. Is that what we want for our Twins with new ownership coming in?

Yes, I’m old school but I grew up on Twins teams with .270 and even .280’s team batting averages (1977 with Rod Carew, Lyman Bostock, Glenn Adams, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Mike Cubbage).

The Twins can do so much better with a championship standard as their guide.

For me, the whole house, top to bottom needed to be swept clean: ownership, Falvey and Baldelli. By rehiring Baldelli, we missed a chance at Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona.

We need a GM like Andy McPhail and an organizational change from one dimensional offense to a more dynamic, multi-pronged offense like the Royals, Guardians, Rays. I remember too many games where teams like that conducted a track meet and ran the Twins off the field in the late innings.

All of this was why I listed several non keepers, because I didn’t think they represented the level of excellence the Twins should be striving for and kept the real keepers like Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Lee, Santana, Miranda. 

This drew me a possible record 9 thumbs down but I've seen what’s possible from 1965-2024 and the Twins could really do it with the right ownership, GM and manager. By far their best attribute is scouting and drafting, which is why Sean Johnson should stay in place.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Yes, I’m old school but I grew up on Twins teams with .270 and even .280’s team batting averages (1977 with Rod Carew, Lyman Bostock, Glenn Adams, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Mike Cubbage).

MLB batting average was .265 in 1979. It's .243 now. The highest batting average of any team in 2024 was .263. The Twins aren't going to hit 15 points higher than the best team in baseball.

To assemble a team that hits .280 in 2024 you would need to have every player better than the top 5 in batting average at their position.

5th best batting average at each position in 2024:

1B Yandy Diaz .281 (Miranda hit .284 FWIW)

2B Brendan Donovan .278 

SS Corey Seager .278

3B Rafael Devers .272

LF Lourdes Gurriel .279

CF Julio Rodriguez .273

RF Fernando Tatis Jr .276

C Salvador Perez .271

DH Marcell Ozuna .302

So, the Twins just need to acquire an All-Star caliber bat at every position (with a $130M budget) and the team can hit .280. Simple.

[ashbury]

On 10/15/2024 at 5:59 PM, Greglw3 said:

You like the .226 batting average and the too frequent long, deep slumps?

I like runs and RBIs.  Among players whose games were at least 60% behind the plate, Jeffers had the 8th most runs batted in, and the 9th most runs scored.  Part of his secret formula was to be 4th in the majors in HR (among catching peers I mean).

Someone has to catch.  If you discard Jeffers, it's a false economy - you will be hard pressed to replace the production without paying through the nose.

[Greglw3]

On 10/14/2024 at 4:30 PM, Mike Sixel said:

People downvoting this think the Twins will let Jeffers walk for nothing? Ignoring that they should keep him, you think they'll just let him go, not sign him for a bargain rate, and trade him, just let him walk over 5 million dollars? Who's your catcher?

Austin Barnes, Elias Diaz, Jacob Stallings, 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Austin Barnes, Elias Diaz, Jacob Stallings, 

You didn't answer the question.