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Posted

The Minnesota Twins are experiencing the dark side of embracing injury risk as a strategy, as they have been missing their two star players during a critical stretch of the season.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

While the Minnesota Twins have put together a season of competitive play—much more competitive than we thought second or third in the AL Central would be, in the bigger picture of baseball—one issue has continued to rear its ugly head season after season, and seems to mute the team’s successes: The Twins' star players continually seem to be injured.

In the last two seasons, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have been unavailable to the team. To be clear, the words to follow are not meant to indict either of these players. Instead, they point out the negative side of a strategy the Twins appear to have used—a strategy that the front office has only been able to go halfway on. 

Buxton has a well-documented history of injuries. When Buck is right and roaming center like he has been for much of the year, he is a game-changing player. Likewise, when going right, Correa is the same type of star player who can feel like he is single-handedly propelling his team toward victory.

Even after missing significant time, FanGraphs values Buxton’s contributions to the team at $26.3 million, well above his salary of $15 million for the season. Just before he went down with plantar fasciitis, Correa was on a tear where he was slashing .375/.435/.625 and a 1.060 OPS from Jun. 5 until the injury. Both still sit atop the Twins fWAR leaderboard.

This season is yet another example of how both Correa and Buxton, if healthy, deserve much larger contracts than either of them is on. The injury history and Correa’s medical imaging of his ankle are the only reasons the Twins were able to jump up and sign both stars. The worries surrounding each star's availability created a situation where both became a “distressed asset” that the Twins were willing to keep on board.

The Twins have yet to experience the worst-case scenario, as Buxton and Correa have at least been available for some of the season. This season’s situation isn’t good by any means, as their inability has coincided with a very important stretch run in which they could use the jolt their bats would bring and the consistency of their gloves.

As fans, we are experiencing the dark side of dealing with distressed assets. When it works for teams with the quasi-need to save money and the star player is healthy and performs well, a front office has more than maximized those dollars. When the player continues to be injured, and the team cannot rely on them for at-bats and innings in the field, the dollars begin to feel wasted, even if FanGraphs tells us otherwise. 

To the Twins' credit, two parts of the roster-building process have gone well. The front office did avoid some other potential distressed assets along the way, who have cratered. At two years and $24 million, Kenta Maeda went to the Detroit Tigers. It was tempting to try and squeeze more out of the veteran to help fill out the rotation. Thankfully, the Twins said no to the contract, as Maeda has performed poorly enough that he has been moved strictly to a relief role. 

As Jordan Montgomery hung out unsigned late, many of Twins Territory pointed to the playoff standout to help bolster the Twins ranks. In 19 starts, the lefty has a 6.43 ERA and amassed a -1.5 WAR. The Diamondbacks are paying $25 million for those services. Carlos Rodon can also be mentioned here. While his contract still has some time to pay off for the Yankees, the first year was a lost one, and this season, it has settled out at least to a more respectable level. 

The second aspect of this process the Twins have done well is that they have either signed or developed a good crop of players to provide depth when Buxton and Correa have been out. Imagine where this team would be without Willi Castro, a Detroit Tigers payroll casualty who is now an All-Star. Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, José Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin have all put together some big innings at different junctures for the Twins. 

Even on the pitching side, the performances of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews have helped push off some of the adverse effects of not acquiring or spending money on another starter. Of course, as of late, there have been struggles between two of the three in that group. Even with those struggles, they have, at times, thrown big innings for the Twins. 

There is a lot to celebrate among that list of names, but it still hasn't been enough. The Twins have fallen short in carrying this process to the finish line. Yes, a team can save money by buying these distressed asset-type players. However, the team does need to consider spending slightly more on the next level of replacement players if they want to ensure it will work. In fact, that's a vital piece of this style of team-building, as seen in other teams who do it, like the Dodgers and Yankees. Instead of trading for Manuel Margot, the team should consider spending some assets or money to bring in someone of a higher caliber.

Instead of bringing in nothing in the way of starting pitchers outside of the trade for Anthony DeSclafani, find a capable starter to add length to that rotation so the club wouldn’t be currently relying on three rookies. The Twins could have looked toward players like Shota Imanaga, who signed for four years and $53 million with the Cubs. Another potential starting pitching signing could have been Erick Fedde, whom the Twins were interested in at the trade deadline and signed for two years and $15 million with the White Sox at the beginning of the season. 

Those sorts of signings have been needed to push the roster to another level and would have gone a long way for the 2024 season. Yes, the risk is always present that one of those players also does not perform well. It does increase the pool of MLB level talent the team has. That talent would help to buoy the team when one of those star players goes down. 

There is still a chance Buxton and Correa will return and lead the team into and through the playoffs. There is also the chance that fans will be left with their palms to the sky, wondering once again where their star players were at the most critical moments. A failure to participate in or advance through the playoffs will lead to each fan looking at ownership and asking why they didn’t feel the urgency to put some more money out there to push the roster over the finish line. 


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Posted

The question at this point is, will the team be able to squeak into the playoffs this year with how their distressed assets have been playing as of late? And will history teach them anything for the next offseason?

Posted

Is this supposed to be another article condemning ownership being cheap this past offseason and not adding better players? Or is the OP stating the Twins are investing too much in "distressed assets" overall?

Yes, Buxton is injury prone. This season it really looked like he was going to play over 100 games before his hip flared up again. Last season they had a pretty good backup option in Taylor, and even Castro as a secondary option. This year they did not. And the 2023 payroll was a record high. So the Twins weren't cheap last year but they were this year. Is that the point?

Correa being used as an example of being a "distressed asset" is SO FAR off the mark it's almost absurd. He was limited to 75 games in 2019, and played almost all of the games in the covid 2020 year. The 3 years before that were 153, 109, and 110 games played. From 2021 through 2023 he played in 148, 136, and 135 games, even though he was hurt most all of 2023. But his plantar issue has NOTHING to do with an ankle that was repaired while still a teenager. And the plantar injury is not something remotely predictable. 

I'm surprised Lewis wasn't mentioned as a "distressed asset" after suffering a pair of knee injuries as a prospect. Surely they should have predicted that, right? Perhaps, as a result, they should have expected the various soft tissue injuries he's suffered since then and moved on? Or maybe they should have somehow signed or traded for another starting caliber 3B as a precautionary move? 

Yes, every season right now means planning on having Buxton for 90-100 games max. And being cheap and not adding to a quality team with a chance to win, or adding someone like DeScalfini is a poor choice. But you simply can't predict injuries. They are going to happen. And the best thing you can do is build the best and deepest roster you can each season to mitigate against them.

But at some point, injuries will just happen. And sometimes too many of them happen to compensate. Again, who could POSSIBLY predict Correa would end up with the same injury this season on the OTHER foot? Then Lewis gets hurt. Then Lee gets hurt TWICE, once before the season even began. Then Ryan gets hurt. Miranda and Castro get banged up. A handful of pen arms are hurt losing depth. 

As a fan, I'm ticked off about the cut backs that could have helped this team with greater investment. And other than a couple of questionable moves over the years, I don't feel the team has greatly invested in "distressed assets" to build the club. 

Sometimes crap happens to the front line players, and even the reserve options, and you're left scrambling. It stinks! But I doubt anyone saw this many injuries happening, especially when they were one of the top 10 winning clubs until a few weeks ago.

 

Posted

How is the inability to play parlayed into underpaying assets? If Buxton or Correa could have grabbed more cash, they would have. If I don't show up for work, I assure you that I will suffer financially much more than these injury-prone players...

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Is this supposed to be another article condemning ownership being cheap this past offseason and not adding better players? Or is the OP stating the Twins are investing too much in "distressed assets" overall?

Yes, Buxton is injury prone. This season it really looked like he was going to play over 100 games before his hip flared up again. Last season they had a pretty good backup option in Taylor, and even Castro as a secondary option. This year they did not. And the 2023 payroll was a record high. So the Twins weren't cheap last year but they were this year. Is that the point?

Correa being used as an example of being a "distressed asset" is SO FAR off the mark it's almost absurd. He was limited to 75 games in 2019, and played almost all of the games in the covid 2020 year. The 3 years before that were 153, 109, and 110 games played. From 2021 through 2023 he played in 148, 136, and 135 games, even though he was hurt most all of 2023. But his plantar issue has NOTHING to do with an ankle that was repaired while still a teenager. And the plantar injury is not something remotely predictable. 

I'm surprised Lewis wasn't mentioned as a "distressed asset" after suffering a pair of knee injuries as a prospect. Surely they should have predicted that, right? Perhaps, as a result, they should have expected the various soft tissue injuries he's suffered since then and moved on? Or maybe they should have somehow signed or traded for another starting caliber 3B as a precautionary move? 

Yes, every season right now means planning on having Buxton for 90-100 games max. And being cheap and not adding to a quality team with a chance to win, or adding someone like DeScalfini is a poor choice. But you simply can't predict injuries. They are going to happen. And the best thing you can do is build the best and deepest roster you can each season to mitigate against them.

But at some point, injuries will just happen. And sometimes too many of them happen to compensate. Again, who could POSSIBLY predict Correa would end up with the same injury this season on the OTHER foot? Then Lewis gets hurt. Then Lee gets hurt TWICE, once before the season even began. Then Ryan gets hurt. Miranda and Castro get banged up. A handful of pen arms are hurt losing depth. 

As a fan, I'm ticked off about the cut backs that could have helped this team with greater investment. And other than a couple of questionable moves over the years, I don't feel the team has greatly invested in "distressed assets" to build the club. 

Sometimes crap happens to the front line players, and even the reserve options, and you're left scrambling. It stinks! But I doubt anyone saw this many injuries happening, especially when they were one of the top 10 winning clubs until a few weeks ago.

 

Your comments were well written, thank you. However, one point that should be made....it was Correa, himself, who announced publicly a concern about the plantar faucitis foot injury being a topic connected to the ankle issue from his past. Also, plantar faucitis can reoccur but hopefully will not for him. I speak from personal experience. 

Edited by S Bart
correction
Posted
4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

On balance, the risk/reward of these distressed assets have fallen on the reward end of the teeter-totter.

Buxton and Correa have provided surplus value to their contracts.

the funny thing about injuries is you can’t schedule them, and they happen to everyone eventually.

Truth.  The injury rate for large contracts is 100% and very few of them return value on balance.  They are doing pretty good on these deals and after a slight Donaldson mistake they have spent the big money rather well.

I'll offer another reframe on this angle.  The Twins have stepped up a weight class in completing for high value assets.  There is a whole other weight class above this that just buys another when the first one breaks.  When our toys break we have to fix them.  We used to not have toys at all.

Posted

Would it be fair to say that the most popular choice for free agent SPs among TD posters was Montgomery and Hoskins among position players?  How would that have helped.  Would it matter if they had added another SP given how the rest of the roster is performing?  The premise that the current state of the team is a product of cutting spending is a convenient conclusion without any reasoned attempt to account for this slide. 

A alternative point of view could be that it's a good thing we don't have $40M+ tied up in Montgomery and Hoskins next year.

Posted

As you mentioned Buxton & Correa are great buys, But the trick is getting to the dance & having them healthy & ready to perform there. Even trickier is when they don't care about the health of a pitcher signing them w/o inspecting their medicals & lose a lot of time w/o much if any to show for.

Posted
12 hours ago, BH67 said:

This essay seems to support why the Twins have allowed a surplus of talent to remain in the farm system and not use them as trade chips. If their current payroll isn't increasing, that approach is the least bad option. I find it not bad at all.

Absolutely wanted to give credit where credit was due. 

Posted
7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I'll offer another reframe on this angle.  The Twins have stepped up a weight class in completing for high value assets.  There is a whole other weight class above this that just buys another when the first one breaks.  When our toys break we have to fix them.  We used to not have toys at all.

This is absolutely something we should continue to remember and recognize! 

Posted
10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Is this supposed to be another article condemning ownership being cheap this past offseason and not adding better players? Or is the OP stating the Twins are investing too much in "distressed assets" overall?

Yes, Buxton is injury prone. This season it really looked like he was going to play over 100 games before his hip flared up again. Last season they had a pretty good backup option in Taylor, and even Castro as a secondary option. This year they did not. And the 2023 payroll was a record high. So the Twins weren't cheap last year but they were this year. Is that the point?

Correa being used as an example of being a "distressed asset" is SO FAR off the mark it's almost absurd. He was limited to 75 games in 2019, and played almost all of the games in the covid 2020 year. The 3 years before that were 153, 109, and 110 games played. From 2021 through 2023 he played in 148, 136, and 135 games, even though he was hurt most all of 2023. But his plantar issue has NOTHING to do with an ankle that was repaired while still a teenager. And the plantar injury is not something remotely predictable. 

I'm surprised Lewis wasn't mentioned as a "distressed asset" after suffering a pair of knee injuries as a prospect. Surely they should have predicted that, right? Perhaps, as a result, they should have expected the various soft tissue injuries he's suffered since then and moved on? Or maybe they should have somehow signed or traded for another starting caliber 3B as a precautionary move? 

Yes, every season right now means planning on having Buxton for 90-100 games max. And being cheap and not adding to a quality team with a chance to win, or adding someone like DeScalfini is a poor choice. But you simply can't predict injuries. They are going to happen. And the best thing you can do is build the best and deepest roster you can each season to mitigate against them.

But at some point, injuries will just happen. And sometimes too many of them happen to compensate. Again, who could POSSIBLY predict Correa would end up with the same injury this season on the OTHER foot? Then Lewis gets hurt. Then Lee gets hurt TWICE, once before the season even began. Then Ryan gets hurt. Miranda and Castro get banged up. A handful of pen arms are hurt losing depth. 

As a fan, I'm ticked off about the cut backs that could have helped this team with greater investment. And other than a couple of questionable moves over the years, I don't feel the team has greatly invested in "distressed assets" to build the club. 

Sometimes crap happens to the front line players, and even the reserve options, and you're left scrambling. It stinks! But I doubt anyone saw this many injuries happening, especially when they were one of the top 10 winning clubs until a few weeks ago.

 

Sorry but I have to resprectfully disagree with some of what you say here.

You say Buxton is injury prone yet you also say "I don't feel the team has greatly invested in "distressed assets" to build the club." If Buxton isn't a distressed asset I don't know what the heck he is, and they knew that when they resigned him. DeSclafani and Paddack ARE exactly "distressed assets". How about Mahle? Was Pineda healthy when they acquired him? The list is too long. For a small market team, too many dollars are being wasted on injured players. Then add in the dollars being spent on replacement level players like Taylor and Margot they feel they have to roster to cover for a player like Buxton. Correa is NOT a player that can be counted on. This is his 10th season and he has played in more than 140 games 2 times. Sure he isn't a injury waiting to happen like Buck but he's far from being reliable enough to be counted on to play everyday. He's already proven that. He's the Twins superstar and he's being paid like it. Tell me how good the Yankees, Dodgers, and any of the other good teams would be if their superstars couldn't and didn't play a full season. Look at Bobby Witt Jr. He's played every game this year. Think he'd do that under a Falvine/Rocco approach? Not a chance. Rocco has scheduled off days and the players still get hurt. The "system" they use doesn't work. From signing injured players to trying to protect them. It's a failure.

Is Lewis really tired like we saw in another article her at Twins Daily or are the opposing pitchers finally figuring him out? Maybe he needs to adjust to their adjustment? No, we are to believe he's tired due to playing in 60+ games this year.

As for predicting injuries. That is exactly why the FO builds the roster the way they do. They bring in replacement level players to fill holes for players they expect to get injured. Otherwise there is NO reason to sign a Margot or a Taylor, or keep a Farmer. The FO learned this lesson in 2021 when injuries devastated the roster. Here we are in 2024 with the same thing happening. The only reason why it isn't hurting the team as bad as it did in 2021 is because of those replacement level players and a farm system that is much improved since then. You can say their plan is working but the problem is... it doesn't improve the team enough to take them to the next level. I suspect next year and very likely for the next 4 years we'll be dicussing how the Twins will have to overcome the failure of their superstars Buxton and Correa, not being available to play when it matters. Unless they waive their No Trade clauses and we are blessed with their departures thus freeing up $50M to use on players that actually can play.

Posted

I think the front office has to finally admit their superstars in Buxton, Correa and Lewis are part time players. We might get half a season worth of games out of each of them. If they accept that fact, then they can start to fill out the roster accordingly. They can't continue to sign these waiver claim, injury prone cast offs thinking, oh, they'll only be out there as a backup to our star players, we won't actually have to rely on them too much. Then of course, these back up guys end up being in our starting lineup most of the year. We need to have solid depth and players who can step up when called upon. They are doing a great job of collecting position players prospects which should help a lot. Of course we can't expect all those guys to work out, you've got to support the young kids with proven vets who can mentor and teach these young prospects who are getting relied upon for the first time. As for pitching, I assume they'll just roll with what we've got. Festa and Zebby should still be in AAA and Paddack in the pen, meaning we need at least one SP who can competitively pitch at least half a season or so until Festa or Zebby are ready for real. The rotation will be one or two injuries to Pablo, Ryan or Ober, away from being in real trouble. Bullpen has a good group but needs a lefty or two in free agency. It's fun when they get lucky on minor league deals and the like, but it's also frustrating when those are the only kind of signings we make, like this year,look how well that worked. Rant over!

Posted

Every team suffers injuries, yes.  Every team.  But if you take a look at the current injured list for the Twins, it is much longer than many other playoff contenders.  There are currently 12 players on the IL.  Add in Willie Castro who is listed day-to-day.  This doesn't even include the walking wounded like Lewis and Jeffers, nor the players like Lee and Miranda who have missed significant time to injuries.

Compare this to Cleveland, 5 players on the IL.  Kansas City, 6 players.  Yankees, 5 players.  Tigers, 6. Phillies, 6.  Padres, 3. Dbacks, 5.

There are some other clubs who have full IL lists like the Twins (Hello Baltimore), so Minnesota isn't a complete outlier.  But man, the Twins have either been incredibly unlucky, have intentionally signed distressed assets as the article suggests, or.... something is terribly amiss with the training methods being employed.  I can understand the flurry of pitching injuries...human arms aren't meant to throw like this.  However the number of position players getting hurt for the Twins is frankly stunning and is an extreme deviation from what MLB looked like 20 years ago.

Posted

This is an interesting article and it has spurred many comments and many disagreements.  The core of this article is correct...the Twins are very reliant and have invested the highest salaries in 2 players that consistently "miss time" due to injuries.

Correa is the highest salary and is obviously the hardest to move.  I believe with Brooks Lee the Twins have an excellent way of dealing with Correa's availability going forward...Lee can play SS to give Carlos some days off and Correa could and probably WILL eventually need to move to 3B.  This is no different than Cal Ripken Jr. or Manny Machado or A-Rod moving to 3B later in their careers.  

Buxton only has a $15 million dollar per season contract.  That's chump change to most baseball teams but seems to be a burden to ours.  It was rightly pointed out that Buxton's performance this year would place his "value" to the Twins at $23 million.  That's a pretty good case for keeping him.  It's also a pretty good case to (if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause) deal him to a team that needs him and would have assets the Twins would be interested in.  

For example:  What if the Twins traded Buxton to the L.A. Dodgers for minor league catcher Diego Cartaya and one of LA's young SP's like Bobby Miller, Dustin May, Gavin Stone, Jason Wroblewski etc...

The Dodgers would be interested because they need a CF.  Kiermaier is done after this year, Mookie doesn't play CF,  and none of their prospects has proven they can play it.  The Twins get a nice catching prospect who has been blocked at the Major League level by Will Smith and Austin Barnes as well as a SP could fill a rotation hole.  I'd gamble on Dustin May who many here could point out is an injury challenged pitcher similar to what we've gambled on in the past, but that I would counter has BIG upside and is worth taking a gamble on.  A rotation in 2025 of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, May and options like Festa, Matthews and SWR would be young, talented and deep.  

This is all predicated on Buxton waiving his no-trade to go to the Dodgers, but with E-Rod and Jenkins pushing for promotion and Castro, Martin and Kiersey available the opportunity to add a Catcher to compete with Jeffers and a still young/high upside SP like Dustin May, I would take that gamble.  

Posted
20 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Every team suffers injuries, yes.  Every team.  But if you take a look at the current injured list for the Twins, it is much longer than many other playoff contenders.  There are currently 12 players on the IL.  Add in Willie Castro who is listed day-to-day.  This doesn't even include the walking wounded like Lewis and Jeffers, nor the players like Lee and Miranda who have missed significant time to injuries.

Compare this to Cleveland, 5 players on the IL.  Kansas City, 6 players.  Yankees, 5 players.  Tigers, 6. Phillies, 6.  Padres, 3. Dbacks, 5.

There are some other clubs who have full IL lists like the Twins (Hello Baltimore), so Minnesota isn't a complete outlier.  But man, the Twins have either been incredibly unlucky, have intentionally signed distressed assets as the article suggests, or.... something is terribly amiss with the training methods being employed.  I can understand the flurry of pitching injuries...human arms aren't meant to throw like this.  However the number of position players getting hurt for the Twins is frankly stunning and is an extreme deviation from what MLB looked like 20 years ago.

I just hate this "woe is Twins" attitude. No, the Twins haven't been unlucky. The Royals are just incredibly healthy but otherwise every other team has to deal with significant injuries. 

The Guardians lost their Cy Young candidate in the first week of the season. The Braves lost their MVP. The Mets lost their Cy Young candidate for the near entirety of the season. The Brewers lost an MVP in the midway point. The Yankees lost their Cy Young contender and LF hot shot prospect for half the season, not to mention Stanton. Astros lost a truckload of pitching. 

The Twins lost high impact players to be sure, but anyone that though Buxton would play 162 is a fool, and Carlos Correa is only on the Twins because two other franchises took a look at his health and decided to cancel their contract agreement. So, can we really even be disappointed that these two players in particular are hurt? 

Posted
12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it possible that the talent is just average?

Martin - Helman - Kiersey - Lee - even Castro & Santana  were never penciled in to all be playing together and most not assumed to be on roster at all……… yes, average.

Three rookies in the rotation is not a recipe for success………I don’t have any angst toward front office……….Ryan got hurt - Correa was hurt - Buxton got hurt again - Kepler’s hurt as well - oh, & Paddack has been out forever. 20% of the active roster and 5 of the Top 12 guys on the roster going into the year.

”We could have signed Imanaga” ……we could have done a bunch of things (so could every other club that’s not thriving)…….could have cloned Bert Blyleven too…….guys get hurt & sometimes they are very key pieces - can’t have an experienced, depth piece for every position on the Team. There’s a static roster to start the year & there’s a budget.

The guys they have can get them into the playoffs - essentially this same group of guys on the dirt/grass/batter’s box are the guys that took them from 10 games over .500 to 17 games over .500. Matthews is a problem - gotta figure out a way to maximize his abilities and not expect to lean on him. Bottom line is they have to start manufacturing runs. They haven’t pitched perfectly nor played defense perfectly all year …….. they scored SOME runs though.

Hope they pull together a string of AB’s and gain some momentum starting today!

Posted
25 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I just hate this "woe is Twins" attitude. No, the Twins haven't been unlucky. The Royals are just incredibly healthy but otherwise every other team has to deal with significant injuries. 

 

Nowhere did I say "woe is Twins".  Had you bothered to read further you would have seen I was questioning the training methods.  And it isn't just the Royals who have had far fewer injuries.

Posted
1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Nowhere did I say "woe is Twins".  Had you bothered to read further you would have seen I was questioning the training methods.  And it isn't just the Royals who have had far fewer injuries.

I apologize, I didn't mean to quote the words, but express criticism of the sentiment we've all heard often and which was conveyed in your post.

When Buxton and Correa were healthy, was that indication of good training methods? Frequently injured guys getting hurt again doesn't tell me anything about the medical or training of the organization. 

Posted

If you can reliably predict which players will get injured and which players will stay healthy you could make a lot of money as an MLB general manager.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

If you can reliably predict which players will get injured and which players will stay healthy you could make a lot of money as an MLB general manager.

This is largely true, but you won't make any money betting that Buxton won't play more than half a season. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This is largely true, but you won't make any money betting that Buxton won't play more than half a season. 

Which is why they're only paying him at half-season prices.

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