Padres 5, Twins 3: Zebby Matthews Makes His Own Mess

[Nate Palmer]

The Minnesota Twins ran into a red-hot San Diego Padres team and couldn't match their heat. Zebby Matthews held strong in many ways, but a fielding miscue loomed large once again, as the Twins lost.

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Zebby Matthews: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K (92 pitches, 59 strikes (64.1%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Zebby Matthews (-0.354), Carlos Santana (-0.083), Willi Castro (-0.077)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

This week, there's plenty of opportunity to be sentimental, as the Minnesota Twins visit the San Diego Padres. Old Friends Luis Arraez and Donovan Solano are both suiting up for the opponent. Monday night, Royce Lewis’s high-school baseball coach, Brett Kay, was watching him in person for the first time. Jayce Tingler was also returning to the place he once managed. The team waiting for them, though, is not especially friendly.

The sunny San Diego weather did have the bats warm and ready to go from the beginning. In the first inning, after Trevor Larnach stroked a single, Matt Wallner (who had a rough Texas series) wanted to erase that from memory, and pulled a double down the right-field line. It was enough to allow Larnach to come around to score and put the Twins up early, 1-0. 

The Padres weren’t going to sit back and be silent. They put together a rally in the first inning, themselves. Zebby Matthews faced a flurry of challenging moments early in his second start. A hit-by-pitch for Arraez, who usually doesn’t need much help getting on base, followed by a Jurickson Profar flare single, put Matthews in a quick hole. 

With runners on first and third, Matthews induced an out from Jake Cronenworth on a grounder. It was also enough to score Arraez to tie up the game. Matthews was almost able to get out of his trouble, but with two outs, Xander Bogaerts hit a single to put the Padres up 2-1 at the end of the first inning. 

In the Twins half of the second inning, they quickly loaded the bases with one out with an Edouard Julien single, Christian Vazquez single, and Austin Martin single. What followed was one of the more savvy running plays we have seen, from rookie Martin. 

In the next at-bat, Willi Castro hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield, where Bogaerts had an excellent opportunity to tag Martin and throw out Castro for a double play. Instead, Martin alertly backpedaled to avoid the tag long enough to allow Castro to be safe and score Julien from third.

Miscue and Walks loom large
With the Padres up in the 3rd inning, Matthews faced a challenging base load and two-out situation. How he got there was not characteristic of this Twins team and Zebby himself. With one out, Carlos Santana missed a sharp grounder off his glove. Julien quickly recovered the ball to keep the ball out alive, but Matthews could not hang onto Julien’s throw as he covered first base. 

On the road to the bases-loaded situation, Matthews would then walk two batters. That coming from the right-hander who had walked seven batters all season throughout his minor league stops. Zebby still had a chance to get out of the inning safely, but fellow rookie Jackson Merrill, who is putting together his own impressive season, hit a bases-clearing double to put the Padres up 5-2.  

The score won’t tell the whole story
The score when Matthews left the game was not good, with a 5-2 deficit. It doesn’t tell the whole story of how Matthews's outing went. In his second start, he faced a very good Padres lineup. He held his own in many ways and, in many moments, was one batter, pitch, or defensive play away from a clean inning. That is the growth edge from rookie to regular, reliable rotation arm. It is the type of outing that Matthews certainly will have hoped would have yielded better results, but there is a lot to continue to be excited about with the rookie pitcher. 

The tandem of bullpen arms that did come in for the Twins did keep the score where it was when Matthews left the game, albeit in two very different fashions. Trevor Richards, over two innings, left fans with a moth full of fingernails as he stranded runners on the basepaths. On the other hand, Caleb Thielbar used only nine pitches to get through the eighth inning and get the bats back up to the plate.

The Twins did make a last minute surbe in the ninth while facing Padres closer Robert Suarez. Julien would walk and advance to second on defensive indifference. Vazquez would bring him around on a single. Resulting in a pinch-hitting opportunity for Jose Miranda as the potential game-tying run. While Miranda gave one pitch a long-ride foul, he ultimately would ground out, and the Padres ended up winners on Monday.

What’s Next?
The Twins will look to even the series with their best pitcher on the mound, Bailey Ober. The Padres will counter with Martin Perez, who put together a 4.62 ERA for the season. Fans can expect a right-handed heavy starting lineup as the Padres send out the left-hander. 

Postgame Interviews

Coming Soon

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Alcalá	20	0	9	19	0	48
Jax	15	19	0	9	0	43
Richards	0	0	0	13	27	40
Durán	18	13	0	6	0	37
Sands	0	18	9	0	0	27
Henríquez	0	0	27	0	0	27
Thielbar	0	18	0	0	9	27
Okert	0	8	0	0	0	8

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[Parfigliano]

Game was reminiscent of a Cousins Monday night game

 

[mikelink45]

So glad Margot got a chance to PH - how did that go?  And Wallner is breaking out of his slump so they PH Jeffers for him.  What is this fascination with Pinch Hitting?  I know Margot stinks, but what is the PH success for the season?  

Quote

The Twins lead all of baseball with 104 at bats from pinch hitters, but they have just 23 hits in those situations (for a .221 batting average). Then again, if you take out Margot's 0-for-25, other Twins are 23 for 79 (.291) while pinch hitting.

 

[Nashvilletwin]

Little league. With two outs, an error is followed by two walks and then a three run double. Yep, very reminiscent of my days coaching little league. To be fair, Matthews was squeezed a bit by the home plate ump (who, btw, really had a rough night for both teams). Oh well.

On the positive side, Julien had a strong game - both at the plate and in the field. He looked quite determined at the plate, especially in that last AB.  Don’t look now, but our two prospects with the most concerns about fielding - Julien and Wallner - are starting to look very solid with the glove (and arm).

Also, it was fun to see my favorite hitter again on TV. I tried to never miss an Arraez at bat when he played for the Twins, so I am looking forward to watching him hit the next two days.

[Jocko87]

Really encouraged by Julien, especially the last at bat.  At the time it felt like the kind of PA that something clicks, regardless of outcome.  Three days ago he might regret the gray uniform facing 100, today he attacked it.

[twinstalker]

Zebby I thought didn't look as bad as the trouble he caused himself.  It would have been nice to get strikes called when he hit the corners.  I hope the outing doesn't mess with his head.  He'll do fine if he just keeps keeping on and learning along the way. 

[Doctor Wu]

6 hours ago, twinstalker said:

I hope the outing doesn't mess with his head.  He'll do fine if he just keeps keeping on and learning along the way. 

I tend to think it WON'T mess with his head, and this game will be one of those character-building "learning experiences" that will make him sharper in his next start. Hey, he's a rookie who has jumped, what? three levels, this season? So, we can expect a few bumps in the road, but this game wasn't all that awful for him. Would have been nice if the Twins had given him some run support, but this was just one of those games. Let's hope Ober and crew can turn the tables tomorrow.  

[Karbo]

Another night of wishing for a robo ump calling balls and strikes. Though not the reason the Twins lost, the balls and strike calling was so inconsistent for both teams that the league really needs to do something. 

[Doctor Gast]

SD is one of the hottest teams right now, so we really miss Correa & Buxton. Still was a good game. We score runs while Martin is on the bases. Either he scores himself through heads-up base running or like last night his heads-up base running move, allowed Julien to score. Just because he doesn't hit a ton of HRs doesn't mean he is still not a valuable asset to the Twins even as a rookie.

King is a very good pitcher, too bad Matthews was matched up against him. If another player other than Santana had missed that grounder, fans would be all over him. It was a treat to see our old friend Arraez play again & we'll face another old friend Perez tonite. I wish them both well but not while playing the Twins.

[JD-TWINS]

Martin’s base-running in 2nd was a really heads-up move.

Vazquez is stinging fastballs in his hot zone - nice to not feel like an automatic out in his spot. He’s well over .300 since July 1st, with some XBH pop.

Matthews got squeezed on a few strikes up & down in the zone. In some AB’s he had trouble the count was 0-2……gotta be sharper with command. He hit Arraez in the foot in first and then had Merrill down and gave up the 0-2 double to clear bases. It’s his second start and nobody’s perfect. The TWO walks after the error really stung and made evident his struggles with command. He’s got 5 pitches……the change-up needs some work & maybe a couple more curve balls per inning?? He’s got nice potential!

[Blyleven2011]

I can take this loss alot easier than the loss to texas  on Sunday for the sweep  ...

Zebby was okay but his pitches were pretty high all night long  , wasn't hitting his spots as good as his first game and yes he got squeezed by home plate umpire on calls ...

[Whitey333]

Another loss to a team over .500.  Twins are now 27-36 against teams with winning records.  No offense .  Man we need Correa and the perennial injured and part time player Buxton in the lineup.

[LambchoP]

Yes, we need Correa and Buxton back. Without our stars out there our offense tends to fall asleep for a few games. Imagine a lineup with Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Miranda and Wallner. That's a lineup that should score runs and hit for power. It's just a shame we never get to see it. One other thing, why does Rocco keep putting Margot out there as a PH. I swear he's doing it out of stubborn ness at this point. Sometimes it makes more sense NOT to pinch hit. If these young left handed hitters never get an opportunity to hit lefties, how are they ever supposed to learn and improve? Look at Kepler. Rocco usually lets him hit and his AVG is actually better against lefties.

[HarmonK03]

17 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Yes, we need Correa and Buxton back. Without our stars out there our offense tends to fall asleep for a few games. Imagine a lineup with Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Miranda and Wallner. That's a lineup that should score runs and hit for power. It's just a shame we never get to see it. One other thing, why does Rocco keep putting Margot out there as a PH. I swear he's doing it out of stubborn ness at this point. Sometimes it makes more sense NOT to pinch hit. If these young left handed hitters never get an opportunity to hit lefties, how are they ever supposed to learn and improve? Look at Kepler. Rocco usually lets him hit and his AVG is actually better against lefties.

The problem is we will not see Miranda on a FT basis even when the others are back.  Rocco is insisting on playing Santana everyday at first.  This puts Miranda on the bench and Santana just does not hit RH's well.  He gets a big hit occasionally and that is great but because he is switch hitter he is deemed to be an every day player, it is not based on productivity.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

I learned last night that I would make for a bad pitching coach. After the 2 fastballs up to Merrill with the bases loaded, I thought a changeup tunneled off that fastball location would be a great pitch to either get a strikeout or a weak groundball. Unfortunately Merrill was thinking the same thing!

The Twins made a lot of hard outs last night, and just didn't sequence any big hits together. Was pretty disappointed with Willi's at bats with runners on - were it not for Martin's smart decision to run out of the basepath the Twins would have came up empty and one of the fastest players on the team would have had two GIDP. 

As others have said, I thought Zebby actually pitched pretty well. Limited the Padres to mostly weak contact, but didn't get the chases or whiffs he needed to put them away efficiently. Not so bad for a rookie who was pitching in Cedar Rapids a few months ago. To be honest, I thought this scorecard would have been a lot worse for Zebby. 

 

[LambchoP]

4 minutes ago, karcherd said:

The problem is we will not see Miranda on a FT basis even when the others are back.  Rocco is insisting on playing Santana everyday at first.  This puts Miranda on the bench and Santana just does not hit RH's well.  He gets a big hit occasionally and that is great but because he is switch hitter he is deemed to be an every day player, it is not based on productivity.

I'm curious how the IF will play our next year. Lewis has looked a bit sketchy at 3rd, Miranda being the much better defender there. Do they train Royce to play first? What if we resign Santana another year like I hope they do? Gotta find a way to get Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Miranda all in the same lineup. Good problem to have, but a problem nonetheless.

[MinnInPa]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Martin’s base-running in 2nd was a really heads-up move.

Vazquez is stinging fastballs in his hot zone - nice to not feel like an automatic out in his spot. He’s well over .300 since July 1st, with some XBH pop.

Matthews got squeezed on a few strikes up & down in the zone. In some AB’s he had trouble the count was 0-2……gotta be sharper with command. He hit Arraez in the foot in first and then had Merrill down and gave up the 0-2 double to clear bases. It’s his second start and nobody’s perfect. The TWO walks after the error really stung and made evident his struggles with command. He’s got 5 pitches……the change-up needs some work & maybe a couple more curve balls per inning?? He’s got nice potential!

inexcusable to give up that double on a 0-2 count... insane how so many major league pitchers give up hard hit balls when ahead 0-2 in the count

[Major League Ready]

28 minutes ago, karcherd said:

The problem is we will not see Miranda on a FT basis even when the others are back.  Rocco is insisting on playing Santana everyday at first.  This puts Miranda on the bench and Santana just does not hit RH's well.  He gets a big hit occasionally and that is great but because he is switch hitter he is deemed to be an every day player, it is not based on productivity.

How many games have Correa / Buxton / Lewis and Miranda all been healthy?  I recall Miranda getting some starts at 1B (8 starts) but I don't recall who was available.  Lewis and Correa both being healthy allowed them to use Castro at 2B.   That full complement of players also provides a better bat at DH against RHP.  Let's see if Miranda is held out if/when that full compliment of players is back.   

[HarmonK03]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

How many games have Correa / Buxton / Lewis and Miranda all been healthy?  I recall Miranda getting some starts at 1B (8 starts) but I don't recall who was available.  Lewis and Correa both being healthy allowed them to use Castro at 2B.   That full complement of players also provides a better bat at DH against RHP.  Let's see if Miranda is held out if/when that full compliment of players is back.   

Miranda has sat the last two nights, because Rocco insists on playing Santana every day.  Miranda needs to be playing more and Santana needs to be the defensive replacement at 1B especially against RH pitching.  Santana is below league average hitting RH pitching.

[bean5302]

32 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

inexcusable to give up that double on a 0-2 count... insane how so many major league pitchers give up hard hit balls when ahead 0-2 in the count

The hitters in MLB are generally pretty good. Sometimes they hit stuff, even in locations which are normally tough to do much with, like the very outside edge of the plate where Matthews put that pitch. I still remember Eddie Rosario tomahawking a home run on a pitch which felt like it was nearly over his head and 2 feet out of the strike zone. 

In the case of the changeup to Merrill, I do think that was a poor call. Location and pitch type. He hits changeups really well, and the location was in a spot he does well. Needed to have the pitch much lower in that spot.

[HarmonK03]

44 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I'm curious how the IF will play our next year. Lewis has looked a bit sketchy at 3rd, Miranda being the much better defender there. Do they train Royce to play first? What if we resign Santana another year like I hope they do? Gotta find a way to get Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Miranda all in the same lineup. Good problem to have, but a problem nonetheless.

You are not going to be able to get Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Miranda all in the lineup if you resign Santana especially with the philosophy of this front office and manager.  Santana would be the fulltime first baseman because he is a switch hitter.  So the only way to get Miranda in the lineup is to move Lewis to the OF and I don't think that is happening.  I still think it is too soon to say whether Lewis is a bust at third, he has barely 100 games if that many at the position, he needs more reps there.

[Riverbrian]

The Error from Santana slash Zebby was a pretty key moment in the game. It should have been two outs and nobody on...

Following that error with two walks resulted in a crooked number. 

That crooked number was the difference in the game. 

Strap it on... Another game tonight. 

[bean5302]

Lots of comments about the ump, but they did really well for Matthews to start the game. Couple bad calls against Arraez and an early one against Bogaerts in the 3rd. Not a routine catch for Matthews with an 85mph throw shifting behind him from 15ft away, but one he needs to make at first base.

Overall, not a terrible game pitched by Matthews, but not a great one. Gotta generate more swings and misses.

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I'm curious how the IF will play our next year. Lewis has looked a bit sketchy at 3rd, Miranda being the much better defender there. Do they train Royce to play first? What if we resign Santana another year like I hope they do? Gotta find a way to get Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Miranda all in the same lineup. Good problem to have, but a problem nonetheless.

Really early for this discussion, but I'll be surprised if Santana fits into the budget next year.  Heck, many on here think Castro won't be back because of the raise he will get as an arbitration eligible player.  If money is tight, they have to keep Castro, Duran, and other young but increasingly expensive players over a soon-to-be 39 year old Santana.

If somehow the Pohlads get lucky and hit the lottery 😁, maybe then the Twins can bring everyone back.

[August J Gloop]

The game turned on two 2-out 100 mph drives hit with runners on. SD's fell in 3 RBI. Min's got caught, no RBI. Shucks. Hopefully Zebby learned a couple things about how to keep the focus even after some mistakes. The changeup was a potentially good idea, just executed really bad. But worse was the walk to Xander, since he was never really in the AB. 

[joefish]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

inexcusable to give up that double on a 0-2 count... insane how so many major league pitchers give up hard hit balls when ahead 0-2 in the count

ONE BAD PITCH. Yes it was. Baseball sucks that way.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I wouldn't say Matthews struggled last night, but he certainly labored. I don't know if there's a meaningful distinction there for people or not. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

After the 2 fastballs up to Merrill with the bases loaded, I thought a changeup tunneled off that fastball location would be a great pitch to either get a strikeout or a weak groundball.

Always go higher up the ladder again with another fastball in that situation! Way above the letters - up at the eyes. The worst that could happen is the count goes to 1-2. 

[MinnInPa]

2 hours ago, joefish said:

ONE BAD PITCH. Yes it was. Baseball sucks that way.

kid doesnt deserve this bashing..only gave up 5 hits ..only got 3 runs for support... this team cannot expect the pitchers on this staff to go out there and only give up 2-3 runs a game. These guys gotta hit and score more ... they lost Sundays game after being up 4-0 most of the game ...couldnt add on and it cost them...and of course Alcala imploding ...whish was bound to happen sooner or later... he cant be trusted

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I think that Zebby is finding out that MLB hitters DO NOT miss pitches anywhere in the zone.  He's known for no walks meaning he is always in the zone.  He's finding out that he cannot always be in the zone in the majors.  This will be an adjustment that he will need to make over time.  He has real potential and I am generally excited about him.  Just needs time and reps.

MLB hitters miss pitches which move in a way they don't expect or target a zone their swing isn't good at reaching.

The average MLB hitter makes contact with only about 85% of pitches they swing at in the zone. Of course, pitches outside of the zone have a lower contact rate at only about 65% of the time. The problem with pitching outside the zone is hitters only swing at 30% of pitches outside the zone. So, 70% of the time the pitcher is out of the strike zone, it's going to be called a ball. A pitcher can visit, but they can't live there.

15% of the time a ball in the zone is a called strike, and 15% of the time the hitter misses the pitch altogether. Another big chunk are foul balls, plus the number of times a ball put into play is just an out.

Successful MLB pitches live mostly in or at the edge of the strike zone. A couple of the Cy Young favorites this year and their percentage of pitches which land in the strike zone. Chris Sale (54%) and Tarik Skubal (57%)