Twins Minor League Report (8/15): With System Surging, Another Monster Lurks in the Dominican

[Tom Froemming]

The Minnesota Twins system is flying high, ranking as a top-four farm system in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and ESPN. But there’s a teenage phenom playing for the DSL Twins those publications are currently looking past who could raise the bar even higher.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of C.J. Culpepper)

CURRENT W-L Records
Minnesota Twins: 68-53
St. Paul Saints: 56-60
Wichita Wind Surge: 48-63
Cedar Rapids Kernels: 59-50
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels: 59-47
FCL Twins: 27-31 (season complete)
DSL Twins: 27-25

TRANSACTIONS
Edouard Julien and Ronny Henriquez were recalled from St. Paul while Louie Varland was optioned to the Saints and Byron Buxton was placed on the 10-day IL with right hip inflammation. 

Scott Blewett cleared waivers and was sent outright to the Saints. 

SAINTS SENTINEL 
Indianapolis 6, St. Paul 4
Box Score
With Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton both on the injured list, perhaps the most noteworthy thing in regard to the Triple-A club at the moment might be who’s playing shortstop and centerfield. Tonight, that was Michael Helman (2-for-5 with a double) and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. (1-for-3 with a double, a walk, a hit by pitch and a run scored). While it doesn’t appear that either of those guys will get a look in the big leagues at the moment, you never know.

It’s also worth keeping a close eye on the Triple-A club’s bullpen. Zack Weiss had a strong outing, delivering 2 1/3 shutout innings, and the recently-signed Giovanny Gallegos surrendered a run on two hits, a walk and a wild pitch while sitting 92.2 mph with his fastball.

In terms of the game itself, the Saints fell behind 4-2 in the third inning and never got back into it. It was an especially tough night for the lineup, who combined to strike out 16 times. Yuck.

WIND SURGE WISDOM
Arkansas 6, Wichita 5
Box Score

Debuts are difficult. Not everybody passes with flying colors and makes them look as easy as Zebby Matthews (who moved up to the majors) and Andrew Morris (who was promoted to Triple-A) did recently.

C.J. Culpepper made his Double-A debut tonight for the Wind Surge. He struck out the side in order in the first inning and it was pretty smooth sailing in the second. But in the third inning, Culpepper surrendered hits to the first three batters he faced. He didn’t survive that frame.

If nothing else, Culpepper looked awesome in the Wichita Tumble Vacas jerseys. Totally awesome, like Jeff Spicoli (spitting image if you ask me, but this may just be my hair envy talking more than anything).

Alright, so there were other positives. Culpepper struck out four of the 12 batters he faced and threw 65.2% of his pitches for strikes. He also didn’t walk anybody. Again, debuts are difficult. This one certainly could have gone better, but it’s not as if there’s nothing to build upon.

Offensively, the hot-hitting Tanner Schobel kept rolling, going 2-for-3 with a triple and a walk. Jake Rucker also supplied a two-run home run, his seventh homer of the year. 

KERNELS NUGGETS
South Bend 6, Cedar Rapids 4
Box Score
Again, debuts are difficult. 

Something in Tanner Hall clicked recently, and he started dominating for Fort Myers. He struck out 39 batters over a stretch of 26 2/3 innings for the Mighty Mussels (13.2 K/9), and earned a promotion up to Cedar Rapids.

Moving up to a new level, in a new city, with new teammates and new coaches can be challenging. There are extra things to attend to both outside and inside the lines. It’s difficult … wait, is there an echo in here?

Hall showed some positive signs in his Kernels debut, striking out five batters over 4 2/3 IP, but also gave up three runs on five hits and a pair of walks. With Hall, much like Culpepper, at least their debut is simply out of the way. They’re here, they’ve been christened. Now it’s time to move forward.

Walker Jenkins, who DHed tonight, was 2-for-4 with a walk and scored twice.

MUSSEL MATTERS
Fort Myers 4, Lakeland 1
Box Score
The 2024 draft class has provided a nice boost to this Mighty Mussels club that was already having a good season. Tonight, Fort Myers took the advantage in the third inning with a Kyle DeBarge (2024 first-round pick) run-scoring single and a Billy Amick (2024 second-round pick) two-run double.

That was all the pitching staff needed, as 21-year-old right-hander Jose Olivares threw four no-hit innings followed by three shutout innings from Samuel Perez. Both of those Venezuelan hurlers have ERAs comfortably below 3.00 on the season for the Might Mussels (Olivares at 2.57 and Perez with a 2.77 mark).

Brandon Winokur, who played shortstop tonight (Kaelen Culpepper was at third base), stole his 17th and 18th bases of the season. Byron Chourio was 2-for-3 with a walk and scored two of the Mussels’ four runs.

DOMINICAN DAILIES 
DSL Rockies 8, DSL Twins 3
Box Score
There may be plenty of supporting cast, but there’s no doubt that Eduardo Beltre is the leading man for this year’s DSL Twins. He continued to impress in his starring role today, going 3-for-4 with an RBI and his seventh stolen base of the year.

Beltre, who is still only 17-years-old, is hitting .328/.461/.661 (1.072 OPS) in 40 games with the DSL Twins. This has been a banner year for the system, otherwise a performance like Beltre’s would likely garner much more attention.

It can be tricky to properly evaluate a performance in such a low level, but Beltre was a well-regarded international prospect out of the Dominican Republic and received a $1.5 million signing bonus, so this impressive showing is more evidence the Twins may have identified a stud.

Personally, I bumped Beltre up to my No. 16 prospect in the Twins system in my August rankings, but I consider myself a bit more risk-averse with short-season guys. I think it could be justified to put him even higher. As I teased in the intro, this could be a player who pushes the system even further up the ranks as evaluators take notice of his impressive performance.

Beltre is currently ranked as the No. 26 prospect by MLB Pipeline and No. 28 by Baseball America. Both resources love the Twins system as is, but I won’t be surprised if they further appreciate this org as they become more familiar with guys like Beltre this offseason.

TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY 
Pitcher of the Day: Jose Olivares, Fort Myers
Hitter of the Day: Walker Jenkins, Cedar Rapids

PROSPECT SUMMARY
Check out the Prospect Tracker for much more on our recently-updated Twins Top 20 prospects after seeing how they did on Wednesday. 

#1 Walker Jenkins (Cedar Rapids) 2-for-4, 2B, BB, 2 R
#7 Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) 0-for-4, BB
#9 Kaelen Culpepper (Fort Myers) 0-for-3, BB, R
#12 Brandon Winokur (Fort Myers) 1-for-4, R, RBI, 2 SB (18)
#16 Kyle DeBarge (Fort Myers) 1-for-3, BB, RBI
#17 Tanner Schobel (Wichita) 2-for-3, 3B, BB, R, RBI
#19 C.J. Culpepper (Wichita) 2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 0 HR (65.2% strikes)

TOMORROW’S PROBABLE STARTERS
St. Paul at Indianapolis, 6:05 pm CT: Caleb Boushley
Wichita vs. Arkansas, 7:05 pm CT: Marco Raya
Cedar Rapids vs. South Bend, 6:35 pm CT: Ty Langenberg
Fort Myers vs. Lakeland, 6:05 pm CT: TBD
DSL Twins vs. DSL Mets Blue, 10 am CT: TBD

View full article

[ashbury]

Did you know that an anagram of the name Eduardo Beltre is "Eduardo Belter"?  It really makes you think, doesn't it?

[Doctor Gast]

Hi Tom! Good to have you back! IMO w/o Buxton where we are really shorthanded is prime CF. Martin is fine but he's still new to the position & like Castro at SS, I'd prefer him not to play there for an extended amount of time. Margot? He shouldn't be playing there period. So why not bring up hot (LHH) Keirsey who has manned CF for years? His call-up is long overdue & Julien is still striking out a lot & we have players who can cover 2B at the MLB level.

It'll be very interesting how Beltre will respond in the states.

[FlyingFinn]

Can anyone give us an update on Emmanuel Rodriguez?

[Doctor Wu]

Good update, but can we please please please include some details and let us know who is pictured in these photos? Seems like it was getting better for a while, but lately I see no details at all with these pics.

[4twinsJA]

Feel bad for Kiersay, arguably the second best defensive CF in Twins system and has hit well enough this year at AAA. But, he is not on 40 man roster, To me, Keirsay would have been a better choice than Julien but stuck at AAA.

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Good update, but can we please please please include some details and let us know who is pictured in these photos? Seems like it was getting better for a while, but lately I see no details at all with these pics.

That is CJ Culpepper.

[Dman]

Culpepper was giving up harder contact in the third inning.  Not sure why he was throwing so much stuff right done the middle, but it was getting hit hard in the third.  AA is a tougher level so he will need to adjust and stay on the edges more IMO.  I will say a missed a call and maybe two of them extended his third inning.  The runner was out at home and the ump was right there but missed it.  The reply showed he clearly missed the call.  Then they tried to steal third and it looked like they got that runner but he was called safe. The replay was so bad on that one though it was hard to say.  All I can say is the ball beat the runner for sure. If he gets even one of those he gets out of the inning.

Winokur looked good at short tonight and he looked good at the plate.  His swing seems to really be coming along.  Pitch recognition still seems like it could be better and the K rate is still high, but for his first year in pro ball he has done really well at A ball.

I am super excited about Beltre as well.  It will be interesting to see how he handles the better fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed he will face in the FCL  Mercedes and Jose Rodriguez looked unstoppable in the DSL but have had a harder time since coming over. He seems to have a great approach and hopefully that will help him move fast.

[Tom Froemming]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Hi Tom! Good to have you back! IMO w/o Buxton where we are really shorthanded is prime CF. Martin is fine but he's still new to the position & like Castro at SS, I'd prefer him not to play there for an extended amount of time. Margot? He shouldn't be playing there period. So why not bring up hot (LHH) Keirsey who has manned CF for years? His call-up is long overdue & Julien is still striking out a lot & we have players who can cover 2B at the MLB level.

It'll be very interesting how Beltre will respond in the states.

Yeah, Willi is great to have as insurance at both SS and CF, but things get tricky when both of the starters there are injured. And Lee is injured. Remember when people complained there were too many shortstops? :)

I agree, I would have liked to see Keirsey get a look. Julien's recent performance made him worthy of a callup, but he doesn't fit into the current composition of the roster as well. Maybe getting Keirsey onto the 40-man was too tricky, I dunno.

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Can anyone give us an update on Emmanuel Rodriguez?

Last I heard. via Aaron Gleeman on the podcast, was it's a hand injury (thumb, I think) that doesn't require surgery. So something pesky enough to keep him out this long while not being so serious there's a more concrete timeline like when a guy goes under the knife. 

 

30 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

Feel bad for Kiersay, arguably the second best defensive CF in Twins system and has hit well enough this year at AAA. But, he is not on 40 man roster, To me, Keirsay would have been a better choice than Julien but stuck at AAA.

I'm starting to feel bad for DaShawn. He's had a nice year. Probably would have got a look by now in most other orgs. Unfortunately, there are just so many other left-handed hitting outfielders.

18 minutes ago, Dman said:

Winokur looked good at short tonight and he looked good at the plate.  His swing seems to really be coming along.  Pitch recognition still seems like it could be better and the K rate is still high, but for his first year in pro ball he has done really well at A ball.

 I'm also happy with how Winokur has come along. He's looked more refined than I was imagining. His K% was 31.7 in April and has been a more manageable 26.2 since, including a 25.4 rate the past 90 days. Still high, as you said, but it's great to see that slowly trending the right direction.

It's easy to imagine him really breaking out next year in Cedar Rapids.

[LambchoP]

I also would have liked to see a Keirsey call up. The guys done everything he needed to at AAA plus he plays all three OF spots, pretty darn good from what I've seen. He'd be a much safer defender out there than Margot, Martin or Castro. And who knows, he could have been a real spark plug for the offense. The Julien call up is a bit of a bummer. I know he was doing a BIT better at St Paul, but until he figured out his strikeout problems, I think he's more of a hindrance than a help at the moment...

[Dman]

23 minutes ago, Tom Froemming said:

 

 I'm also happy with how Winokur has come along. He's looked more refined than I was imagining. His K% was 31.7 in April and has been a more manageable 26.2 since, including a 25.4 rate the past 90 days. Still high, as you said, but it's great to see that slowly trending the right direction.

 

It's easy to imagine him really breaking out next year in Cedar Rapids.

Yeah didn't mean to be too hard on him about K rate but at the lower levels I like to see K rate closer to 20% than 30% as you noted he is on his way their the last few months.  I also like to see the walk rate 10% or better at the lower levels and he is at 9% so just a bit more improvement on K and Walk rate and his plate discipline and bat to ball should help him get pitches to improve on his batting average and Slugging.

Maybe it's just the level but it seems like he has sacrificed slugging for plate discipline for the most part this year.  So I think you are right that he might have a breakout season next year.  He should have a better idea of what pitcher's are trying to do to him.  I expect him to be swinging harder early in counts and maybe dialing it back a bit with two strikes. With him forcing the pitcher to throw strikes and his good bat to ball skills along with another offseason of muscle building. He could start turning into something special.  Still really young so maybe 2026 to breakout but a guy can dream right?

[roger]

Speaking of striking out, see that Culpepper has only 2 K's in 24 at bats, along with 3 walks.  Gotta like how he has started his pro career.

And yes, Beltre's name sure gets your attention, at least mine.  

And those of us on the Jenkins watch saw another nice game last night. 2-4 with a double, walk, 2 runs scored and noooo K's.

[Dman]

We'll know how the Twins feel about Keirsey come the Rule V draft.  With Kepler and Margo likely gone they should have room to add him unless they want to go the veteran route and or look for a right handed outfield bat. 

The choice might come down to Keirsey versus Rodriguez.  With Wallner and Larnach as lefty corner outfielders and then Rodriguez who is a lefty who can play center or a corner do they need\want another lefty outfielder on the 40 man?  That is what the FO will have to decide.

If Lewis would/Could play in left or right it sure could balance the team better IMO. It would also make it more likely they add Keirsey as they would have another right handed bat for the outfield along with Martin and Castro when needed.

Keirsey should bring plus defense to all three spots and while it is always hard to say how the hit tool will work out at the MLB level I think he can OPS around 700 at that level which should be good enough for a fourth outfield type. Even if he were added to the 40 man it would take injuries for him to hang on the 26 man, but he sure would be nice insurance IMO.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

 

[chaderic20]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Good update, but can we please please please include some details and let us know who is pictured in these photos? Seems like it was getting better for a while, but lately I see no details at all with these pics.

Yes! This has bothered me for years on this site. They always have pictures captioned with the photo credit and nothing else. As a reader, I don't care one bit about who took the picture, but I'm sure they're legally required to add that. But, since you already have to take the time to caption it with the credit, why not take an extra 5 seconds to at least add who is in the picture! Even better, depending on the article and picture, maybe add other relevant details like, what's going on in the picture (for example, if it's not a close up of an individual say "Twins vs Guardians 8/9/24" or "Team workout, Spring Training '24"), when was it taken, how does it relate to the article, etc.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Good update, but can we please please please include some details and let us know who is pictured in these photos? Seems like it was getting better for a while, but lately I see no details at all with these pics.

 

18 minutes ago, chaderic20 said:

Yes! This has bothered me for years on this site. They always have pictures captioned with the photo credit and nothing else. As a reader, I don't care one bit about who took the picture, but I'm sure they're legally required to add that. But, since you already have to take the time to caption it with the credit, why not take an extra 5 seconds to at least add who is in the picture! Even better, depending on the article and picture, maybe add other relevant details like, what's going on in the picture (for example, if it's not a close up of an individual say "Twins vs Guardians 8/9/24" or "Team workout, Spring Training '24"), when was it taken, how does it relate to the article, etc.

Bottom of photo:

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of C.J. Culpepper)

[D.C Twins]

I would never advocate for chewing tobacco but if anyone looks like they were born to chew tobacco it is C.J Culpepper!

[bean5302]

DaShawn Keirsey's batting line has been slipping since May when he went on the IL for a bit.
6/22+ = .253/.316/.376 OPS .692 wRC+ 79. With Buxton out, the Twins are in a pretty rough spot for CF coverage, but Keirsey is getting passed over yet again. It's for a reason.

He's gotten a lot of accolades about his fielding, but I haven't found his fielding numbers in the minors to be impressive in the least. As I recall, his RF/9 (not great as a stat, but it's what I have to work with) looked well below average last year, but this year he's in the average grouping. That said, it's pretty shocking the lack of prospect depth at CF across the league. I mean... look at those journeyman ages! I include Austin Martin's career all level MiLB CF numbers since he just doesn't have enough sample size at AAA this year to compare. I continue to suspect Keirsey will perform similarly to Austin Martin in CF.

This year RF/9, Primary CF's in the International League (AAA)
Elite
TOR = a26 Eden 2.88
TBR = a26 Misner 2.88
Plus
STL = a23 Scott II 2.72
DET = a24 Meadows 2.70
WAS = a29 Call 2.66
MIA = a22 Mesa 2.65
Average
Austin Martin all levels 2.61
MIN = a27 Keirsey 2.59
CHC = a22 Crow-Armstong 2.54
NYY = a27 Lockridge 2.53
PHI = a27 Stevenson 2.52
ATL = a28 Martinez 2.47
Below average
MIL = a27 Roller 2.41
NYM = a33 Thompson 2.40
CHW = a33 Ortega 2.37
KCR = a25 Waters 2.33
BOS = a29 Contreras 2.32 (yes, that Contreras)
CIN = a25 Dunn 2.31
CLE = a29 Straw 2.28
Unplayables 
PIT = a25 Celestino 2.11 (yes, that Celestino)
BAL = a29 Johnson 2.10

[Obsvr]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

Not sure why he was throwing so much stuff right done the middle, but it was getting hit hard in the third. 

 

Seriously...why wouldn't he just paint the corners?

Doesn't the plate get smaller though at AA? 

That could be it too.

 

[Dman]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

DaShawn Keirsey's batting line has been slipping since May when he went on the IL for a bit.
6/22+ = .253/.316/.376 OPS .692 wRC+ 79. With Buxton out, the Twins are in a pretty rough spot for CF coverage, but Keirsey is getting passed over yet again. It's for a reason.

He's gotten a lot of accolades about his fielding, but I haven't found his fielding numbers in the minors to be impressive in the least. As I recall, his RF/9 (not great as a stat, but it's what I have to work with) looked well below average last year, but this year he's in the average grouping. That said, it's pretty shocking the lack of prospect depth at CF across the league. I mean... look at those journeyman ages! I include Austin Martin's career all level MiLB CF numbers since he just doesn't have enough sample size at AAA this year to compare. I continue to suspect Keirsey will perform similarly to Austin Martin in CF.

This year RF/9, Primary CF's in the International League (AAA)
Elite
TOR = a26 Eden 2.88
TBR = a26 Misner 2.88
Plus
STL = a23 Scott II 2.72
DET = a24 Meadows 2.70
WAS = a29 Call 2.66
MIA = a22 Mesa 2.65
Average
Austin Martin all levels 2.61
MIN = a27 Keirsey 2.59
CHC = a22 Crow-Armstong 2.54
NYY = a27 Lockridge 2.53
PHI = a27 Stevenson 2.52
ATL = a28 Martinez 2.47
Below average
MIL = a27 Roller 2.41
NYM = a33 Thompson 2.40
CHW = a33 Ortega 2.37
KCR = a25 Waters 2.33
BOS = a29 Contreras 2.32 (yes, that Contreras)
CIN = a25 Dunn 2.31
CLE = a29 Straw 2.28
Unplayables 
PIT = a25 Celestino 2.11 (yes, that Celestino)
BAL = a29 Johnson 2.10

I don't know how important .04 and .06 are, but that seems pretty close to plus IMO.  Having watched Keirsey I am surprised by those numbers.  I haven't seen every game or every play but I have never seen him miss a catch and he has made some amazing ones at the wall.  His throws in look good too.  Not sure why he would be in the average range but maybe the injury has sapped some ability?

If he and Martin really are that close there would be literally no reason to add him.  Martin is younger and can move up and down.  He has the speed to steal bases and can also be used in the infield.  Martin is also a right handed bat which are in short supply for the outfield.  I think their bats would likely be similar with Keirsey having a slight slugging advantage. If there isn't much separating them and they have Rodriguez in the wings with Keaschall as a potential right handed bat for the outfield not too far away Keirsey might not make it to the 40 man,.

[Dman]

8 minutes ago, Obsvr said:

 

Seriously...why wouldn't he just paint the corners?

Doesn't the plate get smaller though at AA? 

That could be it too.

 

His first three strikeouts were with pitches down the middle, but they looked like changeups and dropped right at the plate and all three guys swung over the top.  I don't know maybe there were ready for that pitch and eliminated it as an out pitch?  Not that you can completely trust the pitch tracker and it is hard to see on camera but it didn't seem like he moved the ball around enough after two strikes.  Maybe he knew he was on a pitch limit and was looking for quick K's hard to say, but that is some of the harder contact I have seen a team get off of him when I have been watching.

[Tom Froemming]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

 

Bottom of photo:

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of C.J. Culpepper)

I added that after seeing the initial feedback. I also relayed the request to include names going forward to the editing staff.

[2wins87]

Olivares probably should start to get talked about more.  Mid 90s fastball, nearly a 35% whiff rate in low-A.

Took him a while to get to this point, so he could be a tricky guy to protect from the rule-5 sometime down the line, but if he keeps up his performance from the last few months I could see him being a breakout guy next year and reaching AA.

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

DaShawn Keirsey's batting line has been slipping since May when he went on the IL for a bit.
6/22+ = .253/.316/.376 OPS .692 wRC+ 79. With Buxton out, the Twins are in a pretty rough spot for CF coverage, but Keirsey is getting passed over yet again. It's for a reason.

He's gotten a lot of accolades about his fielding, but I haven't found his fielding numbers in the minors to be impressive in the least. As I recall, his RF/9 (not great as a stat, but it's what I have to work with) looked well below average last year, but this year he's in the average grouping. That said, it's pretty shocking the lack of prospect depth at CF across the league. I mean... look at those journeyman ages! I include Austin Martin's career all level MiLB CF numbers since he just doesn't have enough sample size at AAA this year to compare. I continue to suspect Keirsey will perform similarly to Austin Martin in CF.

This year RF/9, Primary CF's in the International League (AAA)
Elite
TOR = a26 Eden 2.88
TBR = a26 Misner 2.88
Plus
STL = a23 Scott II 2.72
DET = a24 Meadows 2.70
WAS = a29 Call 2.66
MIA = a22 Mesa 2.65
Average
Austin Martin all levels 2.61
MIN = a27 Keirsey 2.59
CHC = a22 Crow-Armstong 2.54
NYY = a27 Lockridge 2.53
PHI = a27 Stevenson 2.52
ATL = a28 Martinez 2.47
Below average
MIL = a27 Roller 2.41
NYM = a33 Thompson 2.40
CHW = a33 Ortega 2.37
KCR = a25 Waters 2.33
BOS = a29 Contreras 2.32 (yes, that Contreras)
CIN = a25 Dunn 2.31
CLE = a29 Straw 2.28
Unplayables 
PIT = a25 Celestino 2.11 (yes, that Celestino)
BAL = a29 Johnson 2.10

I would agree that RF/9 has some limited utility, and seeing some of the top prospects near the top makes sense, but Austin Martin being in the same range as Pete Crow-Armstrong should give you an idea of the amount of random variability it has.

It's hard to judge jumps from any broadcast, let alone minor league ones, so it's possible he has a similar issue to Martin, but I think Keirsey has generally looked good in the outfield from what I've seen.  I would guess that him not being called up has more to do with 40-man considerations and probably some skepticism about the bat at the major league level as well.

I would still say Keirsey is probably a better CF than Martin, though I'd admit that I don't really know for sure. 

I would also say that I think we've seen the worst version of Martin in the outfield at the MLB level this year.  I'm not sure, but I just don't think he played as poorly in the minors. Certainly his RF/9 has plummeted in the majors, if that's not just noise.  He's looked uncomfortable around the wall a few times which could be some unfamiliarity with the ballparks.  His jumps have been really bad, and I wonder if there is a little tentativeness in not wanting to make the wrong read.  I would hope that he'll look a little better in the outfield as he gets used to MLB parks and gains a little more confidence in his reads.  His outfield defense being this bad has been the most surprising thing about his rookie season to me though.  Everything else about his profile is pretty close to where I expected it to be.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

Took him a while to get to this point, so he could be a tricky guy to protect from the rule-5 sometime down the line, but if he keeps up his performance from the last few months I could see him being a breakout guy next year and reaching AA.

This year the only must add to the 40 man looks like Raya.  Next year though they have a fair number of arms to consider as it is with Morris, Lewis, Prielipp and Culpepper.  That's a lot of arms they might need to potentially add in 2025 it would be even harder to find room for a 5th.  He'll have to be really good to move past one of those 4 arms. 

If he ends up needing to be added it might take a trade to make room. Nowlin or MacCleod  might need spots as well if they improve.  Lot's of if's I know, and it would be great if Oliveros is in the mix to be added next year.  It all usually works itself out I just see a tougher road than normal for him right now. So too your point, yes tricky.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

We'll know how the Twins feel about Keirsey come the Rule V draft.

 

They didn't put him on the 40 man last year, what has he done this year besides get a year older that would change the Twins mind this year? He played with Stevenson last year who put up better numbers last year compared to him this year and he is now playing in Japan, The Twin have also had Cave (who has better minor league numbers) I think they know what they have in Keirsey and I believe they don't think he is the solution to any questions that have.

With that said, I wish him the best of luck.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

DaShawn Keirsey's batting line has been slipping since May when he went on the IL for a bit.
6/22+ = .253/.316/.376 OPS .692 wRC+ 79. With Buxton out, the Twins are in a pretty rough spot for CF coverage, but Keirsey is getting passed over yet again. It's for a reason.

He's gotten a lot of accolades about his fielding, but I haven't found his fielding numbers in the minors to be impressive in the least. As I recall, his RF/9 (not great as a stat, but it's what I have to work with) looked well below average last year, but this year he's in the average grouping. That said, it's pretty shocking the lack of prospect depth at CF across the league. I mean... look at those journeyman ages! I include Austin Martin's career all level MiLB CF numbers since he just doesn't have enough sample size at AAA this year to compare. I continue to suspect Keirsey will perform similarly to Austin Martin in CF.

This year RF/9, Primary CF's in the International League (AAA)
Elite
TOR = a26 Eden 2.88
TBR = a26 Misner 2.88
Plus
STL = a23 Scott II 2.72
DET = a24 Meadows 2.70
WAS = a29 Call 2.66
MIA = a22 Mesa 2.65
Average
Austin Martin all levels 2.61
MIN = a27 Keirsey 2.59
CHC = a22 Crow-Armstong 2.54
NYY = a27 Lockridge 2.53
PHI = a27 Stevenson 2.52
ATL = a28 Martinez 2.47
Below average
MIL = a27 Roller 2.41
NYM = a33 Thompson 2.40
CHW = a33 Ortega 2.37
KCR = a25 Waters 2.33
BOS = a29 Contreras 2.32 (yes, that Contreras)
CIN = a25 Dunn 2.31
CLE = a29 Straw 2.28
Unplayables 
PIT = a25 Celestino 2.11 (yes, that Celestino)
BAL = a29 Johnson 2.10

Thanks for the work @bean5302

I would just add that the bar for an average major league center fielder is much higher than an average AAA centerfielder. I would think very few on your list would be an above average or even average defender in centerfield when compared against the major leaguers.

I think we should expect Keirsey to be a somewhat below average major league centerfielder but probably better than Martin based on his experience. He probably is similar with the glove to Cal Stevenson who is up with the Phillies. Cal in his limited 213 innings over his three cups of coffee has fielding metrics that suggest he is close to average. Cal has the better bat.

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

This year the only must add to the 40 man looks like Raya.

If MacLeod finishes strong, I've got him being added as well. LH starters are harder to find than good CF's. Headrick was added at about the same stage and the RH Tylor Wells was picked by the Orioles in the Rule 5 draft from AA. It would have to be a bad team that is simply stashing him in the pen for a year.

[bean5302]

22 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't know how important .04 and .06 are, but that seems pretty close to plus IMO.  Having watched Keirsey I am surprised by those numbers.  I haven't seen every game or every play but I have never seen him miss a catch and he has made some amazing ones at the wall.  His throws in look good too.  Not sure why he would be in the average range but maybe the injury has sapped some ability?

If he and Martin really are that close there would be literally no reason to add him.  Martin is younger and can move up and down.  He has the speed to steal bases and can also be used in the infield.  Martin is also a right handed bat which are in short supply for the outfield.  I think their bats would likely be similar with Keirsey having a slight slugging advantage. If there isn't much separating them and they have Rodriguez in the wings with Keaschall as a potential right handed bat for the outfield not too far away Keirsey might not make it to the 40 man,.

I used a standard deviation formula in Excel to create the brackets. I found a post I had on Keirsey earlier this year where I performed the same exercise based on a 2023 sample, less the standard deviation.
 

Quote

Looking into 2023's numbers for Keirsey in CF at AA (where he had the largest sample size) and comparing him to the players in that league who logged the most innings (not their best CF's, just the most played) for their respective teams...
CCH(Hou) - Kenedy Corona 2.87
SPR(Stl) - Mike Antico 2.82
MID(Oak) - Denzel Clark 2.72
ARK(Sea) - Jonatan Clase 2.60
FRI(Tex) - Evan Carter 2.57
AMA(Ari) - A.J. Vukovich 2.55
WCH(Min) - Deshawn Keirsey 2.41
SAN(SDP) - Daniel Johnson 2.31
NWA(KCR) - Diego Hernandez 2.23
TUL(LAD) - Jose Ramos 2.16

RF/9 is hardly perfect, but a couple years in a row where Keirsey puts up numbers which are pretty middle of the pack is at least approaching a significant sample. He's not going to be a plus fielder at the MLB level. 

[DJL44]

On 8/16/2024 at 2:19 PM, Dman said:

This year the only must add to the 40 man looks like Raya. 

Christian McLeod might have been promoted to see if he should be protected. Travis Adams is also possible, he has pitched better than Raya. Ricardo Olivar will be Rule 5 eligible again and someone might think he is worth adding as a backup catcher. I could see a team taking a flyer on Will Holland, he was having a great season before he got hurt. 

[Dman]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Christian McLeod might have been promoted to see if he should be protected. Travis Adams is also possible, he has pitched better than Raya. Ricardo Olivar will be Rule 5 eligible again and someone might think he is worth adding as a backup catcher. I could see a team taking a flyer on Will Holland, he was having a great season before he got hurt. 

I am really only talking about locks to be added with Raya.  When it comes to adds it isn't always about performance as projection plays a large role as well. Raya is inside the top 10 in team prospect rankings with some plus pitches he needs to control better, but it's top of the rotation stuff if he can figure it out or elite pen arm if his arm can't take a starters load.

Olivar is a possibility. He also is in the top 30.  Teams have taken risks with catchers before as they don't generally hit that well at the MLB level anyway.  Generally though it has been good to great defensive catchers that get taken.  I am not sure Olivar's Defense is good enough to get him selected and he hasn't been as good with the bat at AA.  They might add him, but I wouldn't call it a lock.

MacLeod, Adams and Holland aren't even on the Twins top 30 and I can't remember them adding a player that hasn't been in the top 30 (Maybe a relief arm?).  I doubt any of those players would be added despite their solid performances.  I really like Adams as a relief arm and I think that is where MaCleod will end up as well, but he has time to change my mind.  He's been K'ing guys so there's a chance there as a starter, but I don't see the Twins adding them especially with the 40 man as tight as it is.